I write the start of today's blog on the Skytrain, venturing across Vancouver. Friends back home often ask what a Skytrain is, their logic and common sense escapes me sometimes. Fortunately the racing is better than their questions.
Newbury host the card with the Challow hurdle on, won last year by the unlucky Fingal Bay. Whereas Hurricane Fly is out to boost his Champion hurdle credentials at Leopardstown, who are hosting their winter festival. Some Irish Cheltenham bubbles were somewhat burst yesterday, and others strongly boosted.
Yesterday we saw Monksland steered to victory by the awesome Paul Carberry, after the ride i quoted it as ride of the year. This earned him quotes of 7/1 for the World Hurdle in March, which he may go straight to. He was then outdone later in the afternoon, firstly on the novice Back In Focus who chinned Aupcharlie on the line. Lifted to victory by Ruby Walsh, he wasnt satisfied with that, he then one upped himself on the enigma that is Tidal Bay. He would have been one of the competitors you would have ruled out down the back straight. But Mr Walsh called on his mounts seemingly endless supply of stamina and got up again on the line. Even 50 yards from home it looked unlikely, stuck behind Flemenstar and with First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs on either side. Ruby thread the eye of a needle and managed to keep momentum on his side through the finish.
There are a few Cheltenham profiles on show today, none as strong as yesterday however. As I reach the end of my journey we shall kick start our Saturday and begin the action. Enjoy.
1:15 Doncaster - Pere Blanc
This one may seem an odd choice to kick things off with seeing that he has been off the track for 648 days. When last seen on the track however he was a rapidly progressing hurdler for David Arbuthnot winning three races easily. He now tries his hand at Chasing for the yard of John Ferguson ridden by Denis O'Regan. The yard has been flying as of late with their latest winner being Chat Room yesterday at Catterick. He has shown on more than one occasion this year he is capable of getting them out first time, even after this long break. In bumpers he was 18 lengths behind Oscar Whisky and 13 3/4 lengths behind Rock on Ruby. It is also worth noting that he has been entered before this season and withdrawn, which could mean he is ready to run not just looking for a pipeopener.
1:35 Newbury - Bury Parade
The ex northern based horse, now with Paul Nicholls carries a 7 pound penalty for his 2 length beating of Super Duty. Who has since gone on to land a valuable novice chase at Cheltenham, the 3rd placed horse, Yurok, has also won since when beating Aland Islands. Merry King was fourth in that race and franked the form further with his second in the Tommy Whittle, beaten a short head by Cannington Brook. The form of that race is rock solid and chasing has always been the look he has given over hurdles. Despite the strong but select field he looks the pick and should defy his penalty. I have followed this horse since he defeated one of my horses to follow in Pinerolo easily at Hexham, he looks to be going places over fences. (7/2)
2:10 Newbury - Rey Nacarado
Rey Nacarado is 1 pound higher than when landing this race a year ago and hails from a stable in fine form. The most eye catching factor however is that Charlie Longsdon books Tony McCoy for the ride today. He is rarely used by this stable but when he is it must be noted and taken down. He was a decent fourth over course and distance last time in an amateur riders race but the booking of the champ could well see him over the line in front here today. (7/2)
2:35 Leopardstown - Zuzka
Zuzkan is tough as old boots and took on the boys last time passing with flying colours, she was beaten 2 1/2 lengths by the top class Jezki and was only a length behind Champagne Fever. She steps down in class here into a mares race and could just have one eye on the mares hurdle at Cheltenham. Paddy Mullins takes the ride today as Ruby is on Glens Melody, but Willie has been trying desperately to get his son one more winner before the year end. He needs one more winner to ride the most winners as an Amateur in one season. Zuzka looks to be the horse to do that for him and is a very strong bet today. (6/4)
2:45 Newbury - Taquin Du Seuil
Taquin Du Seuil is held in very high regard by Jonjo and AP and improved alot last time to give a pounding to the expensive Le Bec. He won very cosily that day and is expected to improve again for today. He was defeated by My Tent Or Yours first time over hurdles, but was then upped in trip resulting in a smooth success at Sandown. He is 16/1 for the Neptune right now, and a win here would see that price tighten some more. I fully expect him to follow Zuzka in visiting the winners enclosure and could make it a good 10 minutes for us. (15/8)
2:55 Doncaster - Fill The Power
Sue Smith's Gelding has only ran in 3 chases but was 2nd on handicap debut last time to Wyck Hill. The winner has boosted that form by following up at Ascot beating Roberto Goldback comprehensively. He will most probably be ridden agressively today to take advantage of his strong staying power. jumping is also not a problem as he practically steps over his fences due to his size. Sue Smith has been in pretty good form lately and now is around the time of year she starts firing in a few winners. Fill The Power could well be one of them here today. (5/1)
3:50 Newbury - Chatterbox
Chatterbox has been all the rage on the gallops at Seven Barrows with reports of how good he has been schooling. He won his only start to date when winning a bumper at Huntingdon in good style. Nicky Henderson won this last year with All The Aces, he looks set to win this again as he saddles My Tent Or Yours and of course Chatterbox. Due to The former being owned by JP McManus, Tony McCoy rides him, meaning Barry Geraghty is free to ride the selection. Granted it will be a tough race to win but he could well be an each way price and should be at least placed. (No Price Yet)
A few short priced ones and it could be a day for multiples, but lets hope for a few winners to refund the hole in our wallets Christmas left.
NAP - Taquin Du Seuil
NB - Zuzka
Happy Punting guys
Friday, 28 December 2012
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Long Walk and Tommy Whittle Day
I write this after returning from our yearly staff party, in the raffle the top prize was a 42 inch flat screen TV. Of course I won bath soaps (passion fruit) some cheese and wine. Please form an orderly queue to take a bath with smelly cheese and white wine with yours truly.
Onto more pressing matters and a cracking day of racing at Ascot and hopefully Haydock. Lets start shall we?
1:30 Ascot - Cedre Bleu
Paul Nicholls is without Big Bucks this week, but Cedre Bleu can claim some slight compensation here. The soft ground wont hinder him in the slightest and is still relatively unexposed over fences. He had a nice pipe opener at Newbury last time when a very close fourth under top weight. Today he should build on that with Ruby back on board and everything seemingly in his favour, including 7 pounds from rival Solix. Ian Williams' Gelding is useful in his own right, but cant be trusted in the jumping department. Therefore a very confident vote goes to Cedre Bleu. (6/4)
1:45 Haydock - Bakbenscher
Choc Thornton is at Ascot to ride Balder Succes today, Wayne Hutchinson fills in for today however and is more than capable. Bakbenscher was beaten a long way last time, but there is more to it than meets the eye. He was almost bought down on 3 occasions and recovered each time, he was bang in contention turning for home, but tired. Previously he had run well at Chepstow and a line can be put through his Newbury run. So long as the meeting is on today he will enjoy the ground and must have a good chance. The presence of Hollow Tree means he runs off of lower than 11 stone which could be vital in this ground. (8/1)
2:00 Ascot - Master Of The Hall
Barry Geraghty shuns Master Of The Hall here for stable mate Cucumber run. AP is far from a stranger to this horse though after riding on debut and over fences at Kelso. He reverts back to hurdles today and with no Big Buck's lining up, its a wide open contest. 2010 was his last run over hurdles but in truth he looks like more of the hurdling type and should show well. The ground isn't a worry either with multiple wins on soft ground and has proved himself over the distance, Including a chase win at This track. On seasonal reappearance he was well put in his place by Silviniaco Conti, but he should strip fitter for that run and the form is red hot from the race. On that form he could prove the one to be with and is fantastic each way value. (8/1)
2:15 Haydock - Douglas Julian
Sue Smith has planned this race for Douglas Julian since his Kelso win a fortnight ago. The heavy ground has come that she wanted and there is alot in his favour, staying power being one of them. The mix of staying power and a low weight could be lethal here, Jonathan England takes a further 7 pounds off his back and is better than your average claimer. There are alot of dangers in the race but Douglas Julian could well be good enough to land the Tommy Whittle. (7/1)
2:35 Ascot - Hey Big Spender
Colin Tizzard's charge was fancied in the Peterborough which has been abandoned twice this season. He has always been a sound jumper but one mistake seems to hold him back here and then, a clear round will see him round in front today. His trainer went on record as saying he is a stone better in heavy ground, which would make it seem as if he needs this ground. Others may struggle in it here. The only negative is that he is second top weight and must give alot away to the others. He still represents good value however and should take some beating on seasonal debut. (4/1)
3:10 Ascot - Olofi
Olofi was a pretty impressive winner last time out at Cheltenham on testing ground. Paddy Brennan once again takes the ride and an 8 pound rise in the weights shouldnt be enough hold him back. Tom George gave a positive write up in the Racing Post about Olofi this week and early money is key to him. Though there are a number of unexposed types in the field, yet he could still have a shade more improvement in him. Olofi is taken to land the odds today in the Ladbroke. (9/1)
Bothy - He was behind Olofi at Cheltenham and has since gone on to run well for a long way in the Fighting Fifth behind Countrywide Flame. That is top form but he was well beat in truth. The most interesting part about his run here today is regular jockey Danny Cook is at Haydock. Seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett takes the ride instead, putting him on a more than winable mark. Bothy is always a horse to follow on testing ground, which is why he is an each way selection today at glamorous odds. (28/1)
As im writing this Haydock has been given the green light, so lets look forward to a big day and many winners.
Happy Punting
Onto more pressing matters and a cracking day of racing at Ascot and hopefully Haydock. Lets start shall we?
1:30 Ascot - Cedre Bleu
Paul Nicholls is without Big Bucks this week, but Cedre Bleu can claim some slight compensation here. The soft ground wont hinder him in the slightest and is still relatively unexposed over fences. He had a nice pipe opener at Newbury last time when a very close fourth under top weight. Today he should build on that with Ruby back on board and everything seemingly in his favour, including 7 pounds from rival Solix. Ian Williams' Gelding is useful in his own right, but cant be trusted in the jumping department. Therefore a very confident vote goes to Cedre Bleu. (6/4)
1:45 Haydock - Bakbenscher
Choc Thornton is at Ascot to ride Balder Succes today, Wayne Hutchinson fills in for today however and is more than capable. Bakbenscher was beaten a long way last time, but there is more to it than meets the eye. He was almost bought down on 3 occasions and recovered each time, he was bang in contention turning for home, but tired. Previously he had run well at Chepstow and a line can be put through his Newbury run. So long as the meeting is on today he will enjoy the ground and must have a good chance. The presence of Hollow Tree means he runs off of lower than 11 stone which could be vital in this ground. (8/1)
2:00 Ascot - Master Of The Hall
Barry Geraghty shuns Master Of The Hall here for stable mate Cucumber run. AP is far from a stranger to this horse though after riding on debut and over fences at Kelso. He reverts back to hurdles today and with no Big Buck's lining up, its a wide open contest. 2010 was his last run over hurdles but in truth he looks like more of the hurdling type and should show well. The ground isn't a worry either with multiple wins on soft ground and has proved himself over the distance, Including a chase win at This track. On seasonal reappearance he was well put in his place by Silviniaco Conti, but he should strip fitter for that run and the form is red hot from the race. On that form he could prove the one to be with and is fantastic each way value. (8/1)
2:15 Haydock - Douglas Julian
Sue Smith has planned this race for Douglas Julian since his Kelso win a fortnight ago. The heavy ground has come that she wanted and there is alot in his favour, staying power being one of them. The mix of staying power and a low weight could be lethal here, Jonathan England takes a further 7 pounds off his back and is better than your average claimer. There are alot of dangers in the race but Douglas Julian could well be good enough to land the Tommy Whittle. (7/1)
2:35 Ascot - Hey Big Spender
Colin Tizzard's charge was fancied in the Peterborough which has been abandoned twice this season. He has always been a sound jumper but one mistake seems to hold him back here and then, a clear round will see him round in front today. His trainer went on record as saying he is a stone better in heavy ground, which would make it seem as if he needs this ground. Others may struggle in it here. The only negative is that he is second top weight and must give alot away to the others. He still represents good value however and should take some beating on seasonal debut. (4/1)
3:10 Ascot - Olofi
Olofi was a pretty impressive winner last time out at Cheltenham on testing ground. Paddy Brennan once again takes the ride and an 8 pound rise in the weights shouldnt be enough hold him back. Tom George gave a positive write up in the Racing Post about Olofi this week and early money is key to him. Though there are a number of unexposed types in the field, yet he could still have a shade more improvement in him. Olofi is taken to land the odds today in the Ladbroke. (9/1)
Bothy - He was behind Olofi at Cheltenham and has since gone on to run well for a long way in the Fighting Fifth behind Countrywide Flame. That is top form but he was well beat in truth. The most interesting part about his run here today is regular jockey Danny Cook is at Haydock. Seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett takes the ride instead, putting him on a more than winable mark. Bothy is always a horse to follow on testing ground, which is why he is an each way selection today at glamorous odds. (28/1)
As im writing this Haydock has been given the green light, so lets look forward to a big day and many winners.
Happy Punting
Friday, 14 December 2012
Saturday 15th December
Today we start on a horrible note that nobody wishes to talk about. As im sure you all know, yesterday 20 Children under the age of 10, and 9 adults were shot dead in Connecticut. Now I know this is in no way horse racing related, but I wanted to pay respects to those who will be spending Christmas this year without a family member at the dinner table. You cant imagine what the families are going through, and it is important they are shown how much the world cares.
But with heavy hearts we go on to today's racing after a very successful week on the last blog.
12:45 Cheltenham or 1:45 Lingfield - Court In Motion
Lingfield is the preferred choice for Emma Lavelle's gelding, but in case of abandonment he is left in at Cheltenham. To be quite honest, he should win either race he goes for today he should take all the beating. He was last seen behind leading 3 mile novice Dynaste at Newbury, he was the only one to make a race of it that day. Eventually he went down by 4 1/2 lengths but emerged as a top novice candidate. Our Father was getting alot of weight last time when winning here at Cheltenham, this time he concedes alot. Timmy Murphy also said he wasnt totally in love with the ground, which suggests he'll struggle today. Court in Motion wont mind the ground at either tracks and should take some beating. Cheltenham 11/4 Lingfield 6/4
1:20 Cheltenham - Oh Crick
A couple of weeks ago Oh Crick landed us an each way winning at Newbury to save us. He goes again today and is one of the only runners who is a confirmed mudlark for Alan King. He keeps Josh Newman on board to take off 7 pounds which in this ground could not be more important. This means he carries 10-4 and with a more than capable jockey should make it count. He wasn't straight when losing to Shooters Wood, id be surprised were he not to reverse that form. Really strong claims for the ex festival winner. (6/1)
1:55 Cheltenham - Coneygree
Im only writing a couple of lines on Coneygree as he is a short priced favourite and should duly oblige. He was put up on this blog when winning here impressively last time, and so far is the leading staying novice hurdler. (11/10)
2:20 Lingfield - Lamps
It will be very soft at Lingfield today (if on) and Lamps excels when puddles are visible. He is effectively raised 10 pounds today for his Sandown demolition job when heavily eased to win, thanks to Tom Cannon claiming 3. There isnt really much left to say about Lamps today other than the fact in he should win and could improve further. (3/1)
2:30 Cheltenham - Tartak
Tim Vaughan's gelding is not one id usually follow, but I have heard some pretty encouraging things from the gallops this week. On that front im willing to take a chance on Tartak. Nobody could deny his talent being a former Peterborough Chase winner (rescheduled to Newbury). He was fifth
Last year at the festival behind Salut Flo and sixth here on reappearance. He is dropped two pounds for that effort and will be much better for it, that also gives me confidence he will go in the ground. With that and stable confidence behind him, Tartak is the selection. (20/1)
2:45 Doncaster - Counsel
Counsel was a horse I followed on the flat with mixed results, he is now with Donald McCain over jumps. He started off life over hurdles in a hot contest at Aintree (Handazan won, runs in Cheltenham opener). Though in truth he probably got stuck in the mud that day and has since won nicely at Bangor on better ground. Reversing placings with Moidore in doing so. Jason Maguire comes to ride him today and his odds are a bit on the generous side right now. Useful flat performer will go well on the better ground once again. (7/1)
3:05 Cheltenham - Grandouet
Nicky Henderson's inmate is my selection right now for the Champion Hurdle in March. This is his comeback run from injury, and he must concede 4 pounds to a racefit Zarkandar which is no easy task. Last year he improved no end however and he should be straight for today, with no ground worries he should make a bold showing and solidify his Festival claims. (5/2)
3:20 Doncaster - Mr Moonshine
His eight length defeat to Bold Sir Brian isnt looking too bad now after the winner's recent Sandown win. A return to 3 miles over fences is just what the doctor ordered here though. Last time he finished very tired on very soft ground at Haydock over hurdles, he was ridden very aggresively then however. On this better ground he is an out and out galloper and wont be stopping on the front end under top weight. As mentioned previously he was one of the top staying novices of last year with a 7th in the RSA. With early market support behind him and better ground, Sue Smith could well win the finale here. (6/1)
5 winners last week so lets hope for more of the same this week!
NAP - Oh Crick and Court in Motion (nice double)
NB - Lamps
Happy punting this week guys
But with heavy hearts we go on to today's racing after a very successful week on the last blog.
12:45 Cheltenham or 1:45 Lingfield - Court In Motion
Lingfield is the preferred choice for Emma Lavelle's gelding, but in case of abandonment he is left in at Cheltenham. To be quite honest, he should win either race he goes for today he should take all the beating. He was last seen behind leading 3 mile novice Dynaste at Newbury, he was the only one to make a race of it that day. Eventually he went down by 4 1/2 lengths but emerged as a top novice candidate. Our Father was getting alot of weight last time when winning here at Cheltenham, this time he concedes alot. Timmy Murphy also said he wasnt totally in love with the ground, which suggests he'll struggle today. Court in Motion wont mind the ground at either tracks and should take some beating. Cheltenham 11/4 Lingfield 6/4
1:20 Cheltenham - Oh Crick
A couple of weeks ago Oh Crick landed us an each way winning at Newbury to save us. He goes again today and is one of the only runners who is a confirmed mudlark for Alan King. He keeps Josh Newman on board to take off 7 pounds which in this ground could not be more important. This means he carries 10-4 and with a more than capable jockey should make it count. He wasn't straight when losing to Shooters Wood, id be surprised were he not to reverse that form. Really strong claims for the ex festival winner. (6/1)
1:55 Cheltenham - Coneygree
Im only writing a couple of lines on Coneygree as he is a short priced favourite and should duly oblige. He was put up on this blog when winning here impressively last time, and so far is the leading staying novice hurdler. (11/10)
2:20 Lingfield - Lamps
It will be very soft at Lingfield today (if on) and Lamps excels when puddles are visible. He is effectively raised 10 pounds today for his Sandown demolition job when heavily eased to win, thanks to Tom Cannon claiming 3. There isnt really much left to say about Lamps today other than the fact in he should win and could improve further. (3/1)
2:30 Cheltenham - Tartak
Tim Vaughan's gelding is not one id usually follow, but I have heard some pretty encouraging things from the gallops this week. On that front im willing to take a chance on Tartak. Nobody could deny his talent being a former Peterborough Chase winner (rescheduled to Newbury). He was fifth
Last year at the festival behind Salut Flo and sixth here on reappearance. He is dropped two pounds for that effort and will be much better for it, that also gives me confidence he will go in the ground. With that and stable confidence behind him, Tartak is the selection. (20/1)
2:45 Doncaster - Counsel
Counsel was a horse I followed on the flat with mixed results, he is now with Donald McCain over jumps. He started off life over hurdles in a hot contest at Aintree (Handazan won, runs in Cheltenham opener). Though in truth he probably got stuck in the mud that day and has since won nicely at Bangor on better ground. Reversing placings with Moidore in doing so. Jason Maguire comes to ride him today and his odds are a bit on the generous side right now. Useful flat performer will go well on the better ground once again. (7/1)
3:05 Cheltenham - Grandouet
Nicky Henderson's inmate is my selection right now for the Champion Hurdle in March. This is his comeback run from injury, and he must concede 4 pounds to a racefit Zarkandar which is no easy task. Last year he improved no end however and he should be straight for today, with no ground worries he should make a bold showing and solidify his Festival claims. (5/2)
3:20 Doncaster - Mr Moonshine
His eight length defeat to Bold Sir Brian isnt looking too bad now after the winner's recent Sandown win. A return to 3 miles over fences is just what the doctor ordered here though. Last time he finished very tired on very soft ground at Haydock over hurdles, he was ridden very aggresively then however. On this better ground he is an out and out galloper and wont be stopping on the front end under top weight. As mentioned previously he was one of the top staying novices of last year with a 7th in the RSA. With early market support behind him and better ground, Sue Smith could well win the finale here. (6/1)
5 winners last week so lets hope for more of the same this week!
NAP - Oh Crick and Court in Motion (nice double)
NB - Lamps
Happy punting this week guys
Friday, 7 December 2012
Tingle Creek Day
Oh Crick got us out of trouble a bit last week and we need a winner or two this week. What a day of racing to get us out on though, Sandown hosts the Tingle Creek while we use the National Fences at Aintree.
Its the matchup every racing fan has been dreaming of, the Kauto vs Denman of two miles. Of course I refer to The magnificent Sprinter Sacre and the Electric Sanctuaire. To add a bit more gloss to the occasion they represent Nicholls vs Henderson... Again. So lets crack on with a placepot and selections from Sandown, with some also from Aintree, Cheptsow and Wetherby.
12:20 Sandown - Golden Hoof
This looks a pretty weak race in truth with the exception of Nicky Henderson's inmate. He was impressive on his second start at Kempton and looks like the ideal type to carry that forward. He must carry a penalty today but takes on inexperienced rivals and the ground shouldn't be a problem. Sets the standard and is the one to beat for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty. (no price yet)
12:55 Sandown - Kentford Grey Lady
Emma Lavelle's Mare was one of the top horses in her category last year, beaten only by Quevega at Cheltenham. She starts off here as top weight in a handicap. The yard hasn't had a winner since November 8th but remain in good form with countless places. There is the fact that she isnt an ordinary horse either. Dominic Elsworth takes the ride for the first time which is hardly a negative and should be right there at the end. (3/1)
1:25 Sandown - Sam Winner
Usually on more testing ground you would look for the ones down the bottom of the weights. This time is different though, this race for me concerns 3 of the top 4. Sam Winner, Big Easy and Topolski are those 3. The second mentioned could well be better over this distance while the Topolski has been out of form for a while. On his novice form he could go close here and the step up in trip will be what he needs. He is also a course winner here 2 years ago. The main selection has been off for a year however since injury struck at Cheltenham. He was fourth in the triumph hurdle when staying on like a train, explaining the obvious step up in trip. Its interesting Paul Nicholls has thrown him into a saturday handicap straight away. Could well be the third favourite of the day to oblige at Sandown. Sam Winner (5/2) Topolski (33/1)
1:55 Sandown - Captain Conan
The biggest threat to Captain Conan today should be the fences. Hinterland is better than he showed at Exeter when going off stupidly fast and tiring. Third Intention has already been put in his place by the selection and the other two dont look good enough. It has been muttered that Captain Conan 'doesnt't have gears'. We wont be any the wiser on this testing ground after today as many will be struggling to pick up late on. As thought he was very good over his fences at Cheltenham and should oblige today easily. Very short odds for the reward however (1/2)
2:30 Sandown - Petit Robin
It was hard to tear myself away from Cheltenham scorer Ifandbutwhynot but Petit Robin is the selection. He scored nicely at Ascot on testing ground and was raised 6 pounds for that. Nico de Boinville negates 7 off his top weight so is running off one pound lower. People seem to forget Petit Robin was a one time top class chaser until injury struck and sidelined him. In 2009 he won the Desert Orchid chase beating Well Chief doing so. He faces a stiff task here too but should be more than good enough if returning to near his best. (7/1)
3:05 Sandown - Sanctuaire
This is one of the races of the year, exluding the rematch in the Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre sent chills down your spine in every run last year culminating in the Arkle. But what he did Sanctuaire matched when winning the grade 2 Celebration chase here. He was simply awesome that day and followers of this blog were rewarded. He jumped with such fluency and travelled as well as you will see in a racehorse. Doing this he pounded Somersby by 17 lengths without being asked for any real effort. Sprinter Sacre is obviously a much better horse than Somersby, but Sanctuaire could well take some pegging back on this ground. Paul Nicholls' gelding to steal the show, whatever happens, get a cuppa, put your feet up and enjoy the show. (5/2)
3:40 Sandown - Golan Way
Oddly the London National is one of my favourite races of the year, im mot quite sure why, but I have always had a soft spot for it. Sheena West had one runner here yesterday in Captain Cardinton which won. Golan Way represents her here and he is 1 from 1 at the Esher based track. He has been called every name under the sun, but is an awesome horse on his day. The one win here came in a very good race and was won in fantastic style, not touching a twig the whole way round. A reproduction of that performance will get him round in front today. (11/2)
1:05 Aintree - Across The Bay
Donald McCain's novice faces his toughest task to date here, but everything he has been asked he has come through well over fences. Over hurdles he has useful form with Big Buck's and may sneak under the radar as a novice. He receives 4 pounds from Quito De La Roque today and could spring a surprise. (7/2)
2:10 Aintree - Any Currency
Martin Keighley's gelding missed out on the National by one spot last year, after a breathing operation he gets to tackle them today. Then trainer has been expressing how much he has been looking forward to seeing him over these fences. This is preferred to the easier option of going to Sandown and Aidan Coleman rides. Since his breathing operation he has won at Wincanton and a good fourth at Cheltenham. (14/1)
2:05 Chepstow - Cannington Brook
Colin Tizzards Gelding was last seen in the Betfair Chase mixing is with the likes of Long Run. He ran well till class prevailed and still wasnt beaten out of sight that day, the drop in class is the obvious choice. He gets his beloved Heavy ground today and Ryan Mahon takes off 3 pounds which helps no end here. At 9/2 he is grossly overpriced and is the one to beat in this assignment. (9/2)
One last mention, in the 12:45 at Wetherby Yurok should go well after having a prep run and blowing away the cobwebs.
Phew! Happy Punting today guys!
Come on Sanctuaire!!
Its the matchup every racing fan has been dreaming of, the Kauto vs Denman of two miles. Of course I refer to The magnificent Sprinter Sacre and the Electric Sanctuaire. To add a bit more gloss to the occasion they represent Nicholls vs Henderson... Again. So lets crack on with a placepot and selections from Sandown, with some also from Aintree, Cheptsow and Wetherby.
12:20 Sandown - Golden Hoof
This looks a pretty weak race in truth with the exception of Nicky Henderson's inmate. He was impressive on his second start at Kempton and looks like the ideal type to carry that forward. He must carry a penalty today but takes on inexperienced rivals and the ground shouldn't be a problem. Sets the standard and is the one to beat for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty. (no price yet)
12:55 Sandown - Kentford Grey Lady
Emma Lavelle's Mare was one of the top horses in her category last year, beaten only by Quevega at Cheltenham. She starts off here as top weight in a handicap. The yard hasn't had a winner since November 8th but remain in good form with countless places. There is the fact that she isnt an ordinary horse either. Dominic Elsworth takes the ride for the first time which is hardly a negative and should be right there at the end. (3/1)
1:25 Sandown - Sam Winner
Usually on more testing ground you would look for the ones down the bottom of the weights. This time is different though, this race for me concerns 3 of the top 4. Sam Winner, Big Easy and Topolski are those 3. The second mentioned could well be better over this distance while the Topolski has been out of form for a while. On his novice form he could go close here and the step up in trip will be what he needs. He is also a course winner here 2 years ago. The main selection has been off for a year however since injury struck at Cheltenham. He was fourth in the triumph hurdle when staying on like a train, explaining the obvious step up in trip. Its interesting Paul Nicholls has thrown him into a saturday handicap straight away. Could well be the third favourite of the day to oblige at Sandown. Sam Winner (5/2) Topolski (33/1)
1:55 Sandown - Captain Conan
The biggest threat to Captain Conan today should be the fences. Hinterland is better than he showed at Exeter when going off stupidly fast and tiring. Third Intention has already been put in his place by the selection and the other two dont look good enough. It has been muttered that Captain Conan 'doesnt't have gears'. We wont be any the wiser on this testing ground after today as many will be struggling to pick up late on. As thought he was very good over his fences at Cheltenham and should oblige today easily. Very short odds for the reward however (1/2)
2:30 Sandown - Petit Robin
It was hard to tear myself away from Cheltenham scorer Ifandbutwhynot but Petit Robin is the selection. He scored nicely at Ascot on testing ground and was raised 6 pounds for that. Nico de Boinville negates 7 off his top weight so is running off one pound lower. People seem to forget Petit Robin was a one time top class chaser until injury struck and sidelined him. In 2009 he won the Desert Orchid chase beating Well Chief doing so. He faces a stiff task here too but should be more than good enough if returning to near his best. (7/1)
3:05 Sandown - Sanctuaire
This is one of the races of the year, exluding the rematch in the Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre sent chills down your spine in every run last year culminating in the Arkle. But what he did Sanctuaire matched when winning the grade 2 Celebration chase here. He was simply awesome that day and followers of this blog were rewarded. He jumped with such fluency and travelled as well as you will see in a racehorse. Doing this he pounded Somersby by 17 lengths without being asked for any real effort. Sprinter Sacre is obviously a much better horse than Somersby, but Sanctuaire could well take some pegging back on this ground. Paul Nicholls' gelding to steal the show, whatever happens, get a cuppa, put your feet up and enjoy the show. (5/2)
3:40 Sandown - Golan Way
Oddly the London National is one of my favourite races of the year, im mot quite sure why, but I have always had a soft spot for it. Sheena West had one runner here yesterday in Captain Cardinton which won. Golan Way represents her here and he is 1 from 1 at the Esher based track. He has been called every name under the sun, but is an awesome horse on his day. The one win here came in a very good race and was won in fantastic style, not touching a twig the whole way round. A reproduction of that performance will get him round in front today. (11/2)
1:05 Aintree - Across The Bay
Donald McCain's novice faces his toughest task to date here, but everything he has been asked he has come through well over fences. Over hurdles he has useful form with Big Buck's and may sneak under the radar as a novice. He receives 4 pounds from Quito De La Roque today and could spring a surprise. (7/2)
2:10 Aintree - Any Currency
Martin Keighley's gelding missed out on the National by one spot last year, after a breathing operation he gets to tackle them today. Then trainer has been expressing how much he has been looking forward to seeing him over these fences. This is preferred to the easier option of going to Sandown and Aidan Coleman rides. Since his breathing operation he has won at Wincanton and a good fourth at Cheltenham. (14/1)
2:05 Chepstow - Cannington Brook
Colin Tizzards Gelding was last seen in the Betfair Chase mixing is with the likes of Long Run. He ran well till class prevailed and still wasnt beaten out of sight that day, the drop in class is the obvious choice. He gets his beloved Heavy ground today and Ryan Mahon takes off 3 pounds which helps no end here. At 9/2 he is grossly overpriced and is the one to beat in this assignment. (9/2)
One last mention, in the 12:45 at Wetherby Yurok should go well after having a prep run and blowing away the cobwebs.
Phew! Happy Punting today guys!
Come on Sanctuaire!!
Friday, 30 November 2012
Newbury Hennessy Day
Well last week was just one of those days, all each way bets came a place out of where they needed and win bets were a runners up. All we can do is dust ourselves of and soldier on for this week. What a week it is as well with the return of Big Buck's and last years RSA winner Bobs Worth! Lets all pray that Newcastle passes it's 8am inspection.
12:05 Newcastle - No Planning
Sue Smith won pretty much everything on this card last year, including with race with Lackamon. This year No Planning represents her after being touched off at Sedgefield last time by Buck Mulligan. If he were in the race today he would be a warm order to oblige after the drop in class. The most eye catching piece of form for No Planning is the win at Hexham on Heavy ground. We all know just how heavy Hexham can get on a bad day as well. No Planning is taken to oblige in the first race of the day. (4/1)
12:15 Newbury - Rey Nacarado
Charlie Longsdon's yard have been in fantastic form early on this year, especially in softer ground. Rey Nacarado is one that will relish the more testing ground, as well as being a course and distance winner in good style. He should be able to pick off the leaders in the home straight late on after running well in the Durham National for a long way. One last thing in that a recent third at Wincanton should have set him straight, and is theoretically running 9 pounds lower today. (7/2)
12:35 Newcastle - Twice Lucky
A frantic start to today and we hopefully round off a Sue Smith double with the consistent Twice Lucky. He has been in fantastic form this year so far, and looked like adding another win to his resume last time when coming down in front. The only things to hinder him today are his competitors as the ground and distance will be ideal. He hasn't been given any more weight from the handicapper, and as long as he is none the worse for his fall, should take all the beating here. (9/2)
12:50 Newbury - Call Me A Star
A frantic hour to start the day but we end the hour with my NAP of the day with Call Me A Star. She has already beaten Eleven Fifty Nine twice (lost once) this includes a win over hurdles last time. Their strongest form came in a big Bumper at Sandown when Umadachar separated them. She has already won over hurdles too. The Alan King yard looked as if a return to form was imminent with a couple of good performances yesterday. She is the one all have to beat. (7/4)
2:35 Newbury - Princely Player
Phillip Hobbs had a big winner last week with Captain Chris and could well have another here. Princely Player was ultra consistent last year and picked up where he left off, when just denied by Hawkhill at Kempton. Granted, today is a stronger race than last time out, he wouldn't need to improve a great deal to win this. Last year he claimed the notable scalp of Jump City before being beat two lengths by Black Thunder. Should not be the price that he is and could be some value in the race. (6/1)
3:10 Newbury - Lion Na Bearnai
Everyone seems to be getting excited about this renewal of the Hennessy, when in truth it is a very poor race. You usually get a few gold cup contenders come from it, but the only one that could be considered for that is Bobs Worth. He saves his best for Cheltenham however. For this reason I am willing to take a chance on one of the rank outsiders from Ireland. Lion Na Bearnai is from a stable with only 4 or 5 horses, but that didn't stop him from winning the Irish National last year. He battled in determined fashion to win that day and had previously beat the likes of Four Commanders. The softer ground and distance wont hinder him at all today, and it would be no surprise at all to see him run a big race. One final thing is that a stable this small would not bring him over to England if he wasn't fully wound up. (50/1)
3:40 Newbury - Oh Crick
The last race of the day could round off a nice double for Alan king at Newbury with the ex Festival winner. He ran a blinder first time out, which he usually needs badly. If he can progress for that then he should be a tough nut to crack, after refinding his form by winning at Chepstow last season. He runs off two pounds lower and the useful 7 pound claimer Josh Newman keeps the ride. This should be enough to see him be in the mix right at the end. (12/1)
NAP - Call Me A Star
Nb - Oh Crick
No Planning
Twice Lucky
Call me a Star
Princely Player
Oh Crick
Cinders and Ashes should take all the beating in the Fighting Fifth today, hopefully you were aware and got your bets on before Darlan and Rock on Ruby came out. Odds on now.
These five should give us a bit of fun in a Lucky 31 throughout the afternoon.
Happy Punting, lets hope for a better performance that last weeks dismal display.
12:05 Newcastle - No Planning
Sue Smith won pretty much everything on this card last year, including with race with Lackamon. This year No Planning represents her after being touched off at Sedgefield last time by Buck Mulligan. If he were in the race today he would be a warm order to oblige after the drop in class. The most eye catching piece of form for No Planning is the win at Hexham on Heavy ground. We all know just how heavy Hexham can get on a bad day as well. No Planning is taken to oblige in the first race of the day. (4/1)
12:15 Newbury - Rey Nacarado
Charlie Longsdon's yard have been in fantastic form early on this year, especially in softer ground. Rey Nacarado is one that will relish the more testing ground, as well as being a course and distance winner in good style. He should be able to pick off the leaders in the home straight late on after running well in the Durham National for a long way. One last thing in that a recent third at Wincanton should have set him straight, and is theoretically running 9 pounds lower today. (7/2)
12:35 Newcastle - Twice Lucky
A frantic start to today and we hopefully round off a Sue Smith double with the consistent Twice Lucky. He has been in fantastic form this year so far, and looked like adding another win to his resume last time when coming down in front. The only things to hinder him today are his competitors as the ground and distance will be ideal. He hasn't been given any more weight from the handicapper, and as long as he is none the worse for his fall, should take all the beating here. (9/2)
12:50 Newbury - Call Me A Star
A frantic hour to start the day but we end the hour with my NAP of the day with Call Me A Star. She has already beaten Eleven Fifty Nine twice (lost once) this includes a win over hurdles last time. Their strongest form came in a big Bumper at Sandown when Umadachar separated them. She has already won over hurdles too. The Alan King yard looked as if a return to form was imminent with a couple of good performances yesterday. She is the one all have to beat. (7/4)
2:35 Newbury - Princely Player
Phillip Hobbs had a big winner last week with Captain Chris and could well have another here. Princely Player was ultra consistent last year and picked up where he left off, when just denied by Hawkhill at Kempton. Granted, today is a stronger race than last time out, he wouldn't need to improve a great deal to win this. Last year he claimed the notable scalp of Jump City before being beat two lengths by Black Thunder. Should not be the price that he is and could be some value in the race. (6/1)
3:10 Newbury - Lion Na Bearnai
Everyone seems to be getting excited about this renewal of the Hennessy, when in truth it is a very poor race. You usually get a few gold cup contenders come from it, but the only one that could be considered for that is Bobs Worth. He saves his best for Cheltenham however. For this reason I am willing to take a chance on one of the rank outsiders from Ireland. Lion Na Bearnai is from a stable with only 4 or 5 horses, but that didn't stop him from winning the Irish National last year. He battled in determined fashion to win that day and had previously beat the likes of Four Commanders. The softer ground and distance wont hinder him at all today, and it would be no surprise at all to see him run a big race. One final thing is that a stable this small would not bring him over to England if he wasn't fully wound up. (50/1)
3:40 Newbury - Oh Crick
The last race of the day could round off a nice double for Alan king at Newbury with the ex Festival winner. He ran a blinder first time out, which he usually needs badly. If he can progress for that then he should be a tough nut to crack, after refinding his form by winning at Chepstow last season. He runs off two pounds lower and the useful 7 pound claimer Josh Newman keeps the ride. This should be enough to see him be in the mix right at the end. (12/1)
NAP - Call Me A Star
Nb - Oh Crick
No Planning
Twice Lucky
Call me a Star
Princely Player
Oh Crick
Cinders and Ashes should take all the beating in the Fighting Fifth today, hopefully you were aware and got your bets on before Darlan and Rock on Ruby came out. Odds on now.
These five should give us a bit of fun in a Lucky 31 throughout the afternoon.
Happy Punting, lets hope for a better performance that last weeks dismal display.
Friday, 23 November 2012
Betfair Chase Day
Haydock 12:20 - Hollow Tree
Donald McCain's yard have been in fine order as of late and this race is small but competitive. Balder Succes will go off a short priced favourite but Hollow Tree is preferred, with the better soft ground form under his belt. He hasn't been seen since his 7th in the triumph hurdle, which may not put much between him and his main rival today. But since switching to hurdles he has gone from strength to strength and any more improvement should see him win today.
Ascot 12:35 - Shernando
Nicky Henderson's string was a useful performer on the flat and ran an encouraging race in his first hurdle at Newbury. After that he flunked at Sandown when odds on to oblige, that trip was more than likely too short though. Hence the reason for the step up to 2m 6f today, a worry for most runners today will be the ground, but on the few occasions Shernando has experienced it he has performed well. As long as the step up in trip works in his favour he could well win first time this season.
Haydock 12:55 - Black Thunder
He made an encouraging reappearance at Kempton when third in a good handicap hurdle, that will have put him straight for today. He does however have the huge burden of carrying top weight on this ground. He showed a liking for softer ground at Cheptsow and he could still be well handicapped off a mark of 139. This is a better race however and has other improving horses to overcome including Cheltenham winner Double Ross.
Haydock 2:00 - Railway Dillon
He was last of four to finish on reappearance this year, but truth is he usually needs the run and comes on leaps and bounds for it. He is off a career high mark but was a huge improver last year and it would be no surprise if more were to come. Looking back through his form, pretty much all of his worthwhile form is on very soft ground. In fact the only races he was unplaced in were due to faster ground, from that he has earned the title mudlark. Shouldn't be dismissed lightly and 10/1 is simply too big, wont be unplaced.
Ascot 2:10 - For Non Stop
Nick Williams gelding was one of the top novices over the middle distance last year with his third in the Jewson. However he looked better than ever when pounding some good rivals in the Old Roan. Including Wishfull Thinking by 23 lengths (receiving 11 pounds), he dotted up at Cheltenham last week in a hot race. For Non Stop gets 4 pounds from Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow, the main threat could however be from Captain Chris. But race fitness could well be the order here and For Non Stop is taken to go back to back.
Haydock 2:30 - Mr Moonshine
Conditions are near perfect for this one today after last time not having to toe for the end of the race. Sue Smith returns him to hurdles today and may have found a good opening for him. His reappearance this year was over hurdles when finishing second at Wetherby on faster ground. He was one of the top novices over 3 miles last year but the 2 and a half miles last time is far from ideal. Everything about him screams stayer and that will definitely come in handy today. The worry is Katkeau who has heavy form in France and comes from David Pipe's yard (who has won this the last two years with Grand Crus and Dynaste). Mr Moonshine could well be worth an each way shout however.
Ascot 2:45 - Get Me Out Of Here
Oscar Whisky came down at the last when cruising upsides battling Overturn in this race last year. 4 go to post this year but its far from short on talent with Oscar whisky and the selection giving 4 pounds to Brampour and Raya Star. Brampour is weighted to dead heat with Get Me Out Of Here on Kempton form, but that was a very slowly run race and this will suit AP's mount much more than Brampour today. That is why he is the selection after improving on past form late last year and could again improve.
Haydock 3:05 - Weird Al
The Betfair Chase doesnt have as much glamour as last years renewal with Kauto Star's comeback. On good ground Long Run would be a fairly solid favourite. But on ground like this its difficult to see him getting competitive with confirmed mudlark Weird Al. He won the Charlie Hall last year first time out and then finished third here behind Long run. He will handle the ground better than everything else in the field with the exception of Cannington Brook, who looks just short on class here. Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall impressively but may get stuck in the mud, whereas the biggest threat may come from Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster. Donald McCain is taken to land the 2012 Betfair Chase with Weird Al.
Ascot 3:20 - Mad Max
This race could be deceptively weak with the main four in the betting having chinks in their armour. Tanks For That has been exposed at this level but still remains capable, whereas this will be a bit sharp for Champion Court. Pepite Rose will be the biggest danger but this could be as good as she is, Toubab rarely finds off the bridle and conditions will not suit. This introduces Mad Max who has form on this ground and is due a win now he has recovered from injuries. He was running a huge race in the Arkle when leaving a hole in the second last behind Sizing Europe, since then it hasn't been straight forward. He is one of the few that will enjoy the ground, being a past winner and a massive individual should make his mark. One last point that Neil Mulholland books Richard Johnson for the ride today instead of Dougie Costello. Huge each way value.
Haydock 3:40 - Pettifour
Phew! Last race of today for me, its been a long one today, apologies! Pettifour could well be the value in the Haydock Finale so long he can jump with fluency. He overcame a monster absence last year to run a huge race at Cheltenham in a top handicap hurdle behind Dorset Square. An added bonus is that he should plough through this ground under Sam Twiston-Davies and will stay no problem. The only worry is that he sometimes struggles to find a jumping rhythm over the larger obstacles. We will go with Pettifour to either enhance our profits or get us out of trouble, hopefully the former!
One final thing is the a tentative vote in the 1:40 at Ascot is Be My Light who has been knocking on the door far too long
Nap - Weird Al
Nb - Hollow Tree
As always happy punting guys!
Donald McCain's yard have been in fine order as of late and this race is small but competitive. Balder Succes will go off a short priced favourite but Hollow Tree is preferred, with the better soft ground form under his belt. He hasn't been seen since his 7th in the triumph hurdle, which may not put much between him and his main rival today. But since switching to hurdles he has gone from strength to strength and any more improvement should see him win today.
Ascot 12:35 - Shernando
Nicky Henderson's string was a useful performer on the flat and ran an encouraging race in his first hurdle at Newbury. After that he flunked at Sandown when odds on to oblige, that trip was more than likely too short though. Hence the reason for the step up to 2m 6f today, a worry for most runners today will be the ground, but on the few occasions Shernando has experienced it he has performed well. As long as the step up in trip works in his favour he could well win first time this season.
Haydock 12:55 - Black Thunder
He made an encouraging reappearance at Kempton when third in a good handicap hurdle, that will have put him straight for today. He does however have the huge burden of carrying top weight on this ground. He showed a liking for softer ground at Cheptsow and he could still be well handicapped off a mark of 139. This is a better race however and has other improving horses to overcome including Cheltenham winner Double Ross.
Haydock 2:00 - Railway Dillon
He was last of four to finish on reappearance this year, but truth is he usually needs the run and comes on leaps and bounds for it. He is off a career high mark but was a huge improver last year and it would be no surprise if more were to come. Looking back through his form, pretty much all of his worthwhile form is on very soft ground. In fact the only races he was unplaced in were due to faster ground, from that he has earned the title mudlark. Shouldn't be dismissed lightly and 10/1 is simply too big, wont be unplaced.
Ascot 2:10 - For Non Stop
Nick Williams gelding was one of the top novices over the middle distance last year with his third in the Jewson. However he looked better than ever when pounding some good rivals in the Old Roan. Including Wishfull Thinking by 23 lengths (receiving 11 pounds), he dotted up at Cheltenham last week in a hot race. For Non Stop gets 4 pounds from Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow, the main threat could however be from Captain Chris. But race fitness could well be the order here and For Non Stop is taken to go back to back.
Haydock 2:30 - Mr Moonshine
Conditions are near perfect for this one today after last time not having to toe for the end of the race. Sue Smith returns him to hurdles today and may have found a good opening for him. His reappearance this year was over hurdles when finishing second at Wetherby on faster ground. He was one of the top novices over 3 miles last year but the 2 and a half miles last time is far from ideal. Everything about him screams stayer and that will definitely come in handy today. The worry is Katkeau who has heavy form in France and comes from David Pipe's yard (who has won this the last two years with Grand Crus and Dynaste). Mr Moonshine could well be worth an each way shout however.
Ascot 2:45 - Get Me Out Of Here
Oscar Whisky came down at the last when cruising upsides battling Overturn in this race last year. 4 go to post this year but its far from short on talent with Oscar whisky and the selection giving 4 pounds to Brampour and Raya Star. Brampour is weighted to dead heat with Get Me Out Of Here on Kempton form, but that was a very slowly run race and this will suit AP's mount much more than Brampour today. That is why he is the selection after improving on past form late last year and could again improve.
Haydock 3:05 - Weird Al
The Betfair Chase doesnt have as much glamour as last years renewal with Kauto Star's comeback. On good ground Long Run would be a fairly solid favourite. But on ground like this its difficult to see him getting competitive with confirmed mudlark Weird Al. He won the Charlie Hall last year first time out and then finished third here behind Long run. He will handle the ground better than everything else in the field with the exception of Cannington Brook, who looks just short on class here. Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall impressively but may get stuck in the mud, whereas the biggest threat may come from Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster. Donald McCain is taken to land the 2012 Betfair Chase with Weird Al.
Ascot 3:20 - Mad Max
This race could be deceptively weak with the main four in the betting having chinks in their armour. Tanks For That has been exposed at this level but still remains capable, whereas this will be a bit sharp for Champion Court. Pepite Rose will be the biggest danger but this could be as good as she is, Toubab rarely finds off the bridle and conditions will not suit. This introduces Mad Max who has form on this ground and is due a win now he has recovered from injuries. He was running a huge race in the Arkle when leaving a hole in the second last behind Sizing Europe, since then it hasn't been straight forward. He is one of the few that will enjoy the ground, being a past winner and a massive individual should make his mark. One last point that Neil Mulholland books Richard Johnson for the ride today instead of Dougie Costello. Huge each way value.
Haydock 3:40 - Pettifour
Phew! Last race of today for me, its been a long one today, apologies! Pettifour could well be the value in the Haydock Finale so long he can jump with fluency. He overcame a monster absence last year to run a huge race at Cheltenham in a top handicap hurdle behind Dorset Square. An added bonus is that he should plough through this ground under Sam Twiston-Davies and will stay no problem. The only worry is that he sometimes struggles to find a jumping rhythm over the larger obstacles. We will go with Pettifour to either enhance our profits or get us out of trouble, hopefully the former!
One final thing is the a tentative vote in the 1:40 at Ascot is Be My Light who has been knocking on the door far too long
Nap - Weird Al
Nb - Hollow Tree
As always happy punting guys!
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Three
Well yesterday was more like it, with the first two winning and stamping their authority for March. Far West now as short as 8/1 favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and Our Father also as short as 8/1 for the RSA. Skybet are the standout at 14/1 after his bloodless beating of Sire Collonges who in turn was miles clear of old rival Sea of Thunder.
Another top class looking Novice chase starts us off today which is where we shall start.
1:10 Cheltenham - Captain Conan
He looks like one of the standout novice chasers of this season and this should be a race to stake his claims for the Arkle. He wont have things his own way with Gary Moore Yardstick Sire De Grugy who won easily at Kempton on debut also in the field. The main danger could be from Third Intention who was probably beaten by lack of race fitness behind His Excellency here last time. Paul Nicholls won the PaddyPower yesterday and is represented by Exeter winner Rebel Rebellion, he could be biting off a bit more than he can chew here however. Last years Tolworth hurdle winner looks the one to be on today with a win on soft ground at Auteil in France. Added confidence in his Tolworth Hurdle victory was also on Soft. It will take a very good one to beat him on his reappearance today.
1:45 Cheltenham - Captain Sunshine
I fancied him for his reappearance here last time, that time race fitness told and he faded after 2 from home. He was entered last week at Exeter where he 'refused' to race, in my mind thats a bit harsh. He was subject to a big gamble and was going off 5/4 before disaster struck. Just as they were coming out onto the track he decided to go left and take a turn instead of towards the tape. In my opinion the starter should have recalled them, but hey thats not up to me. He didnt plant his feet or look unwilling to run at anypoint down at the start. Before that blotch on his CV he had shown great promise and the fact that he is turned out again so quickly shows they think he is in good heart and could be the one to beat here. Paul Nicholls' Ruben Cotter is the one for the early money. Emma Lavelle's representative looks worth another try though.
2:20 Cheltenham - Wishfull Thinking
Were the going tomorrow good instead of as testing as today he'd be opposable, it would also mean the Sprinter Sacre would be going to post however. This looks to be his day in the sun this year receiving weight from inferior rivals, unfortunately the price reflects that. Seen just the once this year at Aintree when in the Old Roan field that got slammed by For Non Stop, that was 2 and a half miles. The drop back to two miles on this ground will suit him no end and should dismiss of the reappearing Doeslessthanme.
Imperial Shabra, the Irish Raider from the enigmatic Oliver Brady yard could be the biggest danger. He was considered good enough to go for the Jewson last year but was pulled out at the last stage. He has had alot of runs since then, well into the double figures but proved he isnt in need of a break when a close third to Cristal Bonus last time out. The 'toughest horse in training' could be a tough nut to crack here today. One other bonus is that Oliver Brady does very well with his runners in England, Imperial Shabra himself has won at Stratford earlier in the year. I recall Baron De Feypo winning at the festival a few years back, that was his highest profile win. A solid each way chance.
2:50 Cheltenham - Bothy
Brian Ellison's charge made a more than pleasing comeback off topweight at Wetherby, beaten a length by the reopposing Hi Dancer for Ben Haslam. One major thing in Bothy's court today is the testing ground which everyone knows are his preferred condtions. Five pounds higher today than at Wetherby, he should strip alot fitter for his reappearance and looks the one to beat on his old form. You will remember he was second in the Totesport trophy by a short head off four pounds lower behind Recession Proof. Next time out he was 6 lengths beaten by Carlito Brigante, who has gone on to bigger and better things. A confident vote and 16/1 is way overpriced.
3:25 Cheltenham - Coneygree
He may just slip in under the radar here with bigger more powerful stables represented here, but Coneygree absolutely routed his rivals at Uttoxeter. You'd have to go back 20 lengths before you found the second placed horse from Donald McCain yard, its not the only time he has beaten a McCain horse. On his debut he handed out a beating to the expensive Dannanceys Hill. He has a bit to find with Village Vic on their Newbury bumper form and he could be the biggest threat today, after a very positive debut. Two things stick out to me about Coneygree however. The first is that he seems to excel on softer ground and is an improving horse, the second of which is his breeding. He is a half brother to Hennessy winner Carruthers, signifying he will probably need further in time and today should suit him down to the ground. The current 8/1 on offer looks a good bet and could well be the value in the race.
4:00 Cheltenham - Fascino Rustico
John Hales owned the Paddy Power winner yesterday and he could just have another good one here with Carlisle bumper winner Fascino Rustico. This will be his first start for Paul Nicholls since switching from Ron O'Leary's yard and one would think he'd improve for that. A big imposing type that is destined to try his hand in some novice hurdles later this season, and next season chasing beckons for him. He will improve for this run but looks by far the best of these and should take all the beating. This is also attheraces presenter Martin Kelly's horse to watch for the season (via Twitter)
Lets hope to follow up after a good day yesterday, a reminder that last years Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever takes part in his first hurdle at 12:45
As always Happy Punting guys
Another top class looking Novice chase starts us off today which is where we shall start.
1:10 Cheltenham - Captain Conan
He looks like one of the standout novice chasers of this season and this should be a race to stake his claims for the Arkle. He wont have things his own way with Gary Moore Yardstick Sire De Grugy who won easily at Kempton on debut also in the field. The main danger could be from Third Intention who was probably beaten by lack of race fitness behind His Excellency here last time. Paul Nicholls won the PaddyPower yesterday and is represented by Exeter winner Rebel Rebellion, he could be biting off a bit more than he can chew here however. Last years Tolworth hurdle winner looks the one to be on today with a win on soft ground at Auteil in France. Added confidence in his Tolworth Hurdle victory was also on Soft. It will take a very good one to beat him on his reappearance today.
1:45 Cheltenham - Captain Sunshine
I fancied him for his reappearance here last time, that time race fitness told and he faded after 2 from home. He was entered last week at Exeter where he 'refused' to race, in my mind thats a bit harsh. He was subject to a big gamble and was going off 5/4 before disaster struck. Just as they were coming out onto the track he decided to go left and take a turn instead of towards the tape. In my opinion the starter should have recalled them, but hey thats not up to me. He didnt plant his feet or look unwilling to run at anypoint down at the start. Before that blotch on his CV he had shown great promise and the fact that he is turned out again so quickly shows they think he is in good heart and could be the one to beat here. Paul Nicholls' Ruben Cotter is the one for the early money. Emma Lavelle's representative looks worth another try though.
2:20 Cheltenham - Wishfull Thinking
Were the going tomorrow good instead of as testing as today he'd be opposable, it would also mean the Sprinter Sacre would be going to post however. This looks to be his day in the sun this year receiving weight from inferior rivals, unfortunately the price reflects that. Seen just the once this year at Aintree when in the Old Roan field that got slammed by For Non Stop, that was 2 and a half miles. The drop back to two miles on this ground will suit him no end and should dismiss of the reappearing Doeslessthanme.
Imperial Shabra, the Irish Raider from the enigmatic Oliver Brady yard could be the biggest danger. He was considered good enough to go for the Jewson last year but was pulled out at the last stage. He has had alot of runs since then, well into the double figures but proved he isnt in need of a break when a close third to Cristal Bonus last time out. The 'toughest horse in training' could be a tough nut to crack here today. One other bonus is that Oliver Brady does very well with his runners in England, Imperial Shabra himself has won at Stratford earlier in the year. I recall Baron De Feypo winning at the festival a few years back, that was his highest profile win. A solid each way chance.
2:50 Cheltenham - Bothy
Brian Ellison's charge made a more than pleasing comeback off topweight at Wetherby, beaten a length by the reopposing Hi Dancer for Ben Haslam. One major thing in Bothy's court today is the testing ground which everyone knows are his preferred condtions. Five pounds higher today than at Wetherby, he should strip alot fitter for his reappearance and looks the one to beat on his old form. You will remember he was second in the Totesport trophy by a short head off four pounds lower behind Recession Proof. Next time out he was 6 lengths beaten by Carlito Brigante, who has gone on to bigger and better things. A confident vote and 16/1 is way overpriced.
3:25 Cheltenham - Coneygree
He may just slip in under the radar here with bigger more powerful stables represented here, but Coneygree absolutely routed his rivals at Uttoxeter. You'd have to go back 20 lengths before you found the second placed horse from Donald McCain yard, its not the only time he has beaten a McCain horse. On his debut he handed out a beating to the expensive Dannanceys Hill. He has a bit to find with Village Vic on their Newbury bumper form and he could be the biggest threat today, after a very positive debut. Two things stick out to me about Coneygree however. The first is that he seems to excel on softer ground and is an improving horse, the second of which is his breeding. He is a half brother to Hennessy winner Carruthers, signifying he will probably need further in time and today should suit him down to the ground. The current 8/1 on offer looks a good bet and could well be the value in the race.
4:00 Cheltenham - Fascino Rustico
John Hales owned the Paddy Power winner yesterday and he could just have another good one here with Carlisle bumper winner Fascino Rustico. This will be his first start for Paul Nicholls since switching from Ron O'Leary's yard and one would think he'd improve for that. A big imposing type that is destined to try his hand in some novice hurdles later this season, and next season chasing beckons for him. He will improve for this run but looks by far the best of these and should take all the beating. This is also attheraces presenter Martin Kelly's horse to watch for the season (via Twitter)
Lets hope to follow up after a good day yesterday, a reminder that last years Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever takes part in his first hurdle at 12:45
As always Happy Punting guys
Friday, 16 November 2012
Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Two
Well yesterday was about as bad as it gets, the closest we had was Duke of Navan who just failed to place. I must confess something though, i switched from Coffee to Buck Magic in the conditional jockeys hurdle. Apologies for the change of heart.
Today promises to be a great day of racing with a top class renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, featuring the likes of, Hunt Ball, Walkon and of course Grand Crus. Lets crack on.
12:45 Cheltenham - Far West
Mcvicar was a high class flat recruit to the Alan King yard and is two from two over timber. Today however he must give 4 pounds to leading triumph hurdle hope Far West. The selection was a very easy winner at Chepstow on his first run in this country, in the process beating another useful Alan King horse in Handazan. He has since won at Aintree in a race which the form is working out very nicely (3rd and 4th have been first and second). In the past two years Paul Nicholls has won this with the high class Sam Winner in 2010 and last year with Hinterland, Far West looks set to follow in their shoes today. 7/4 is on offer at the moment and that could prove a good price. One to watch out for at a price is Mick Channon's, Foster's Road after getting his head in front over hurdles at Fakenham, and then on the flat at Wolverhampton the last twice.
1:20 Cheltenham - Our Father
He was a huge gamble when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last year in taking style, it appeared after then that the world was at his feet before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. In truth however it has always looked as if he was a ready made chaser, and its eye catching that David Pipe introduces him here at such a high level first time. The two main rivals in the betting should be hard to beat, but both under penalties and giving Our Father weight he should be tough to beat. A big shout to the double David Pipe had yesterday which could mean a return to form for the yard.
1:55 Cheltenham - Poker De Sivola
He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown off todays mark and Ferdy Murphy always has been a little... Let's say shrewd. But onto the form side, he turned in a disappointing effort at Newcastle first time out, he was hampered that day though and was looked after. Robert Thornton gets the leg up which is a fairly unusual jockey booking by Murphy as he is rarely used, but Poker De Sivola seems to get on with any jockey aboard him. You may remember his supreme staying performance to win the National Hunt Chase here at the festival a couple of years back. Other wins at Sandown and Hexham show his liking for undulating courses, he gets a tentative each way vote today at 25/1
Unfortuanately he is a non runner, replace him with David Pipe's Ashkazar
2:35 Cheltenham - Triolo D'alene
The Nicky Henderson representative looked an exciting French import after beating Ackertac first time at Ascot before disappointing at Cheltenham. His jumping never stood him in good health that day, but a promising reappearance at Market Rasen reinstalls confidence. The form from that race is working out quite nicely with winners and placed horses in behind next time out. He looked as if he needed that opener badly when tiring two from home and proving no match for Zitenka. Possibly the biggest eye catcher is that Barry Geraghty has starved himself down to 10-1 to take the ride today, he had the choice of good handicapper Tanks For That (non runner) but kept the faith with Triolo D'alene.
I have heard glowing reports from Tom Cooper's yard about 2009 Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer who hasnt won since his festival success. He has however been very consistent without getting his day in the sun, if anywhere back to his best he will be a serious threat to all rivals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride.
One more to keep an eye out for is Ex festival winner Finger onthe Pulse who ran brilliantly here last time (behind Nadiya De La Vega) to come third, 40/1 looks too big. Positive that top Amateur Maurice Linehan gets on very well with him.
3:05 Cheltenham - Abnaki
Jonjo's representative made a pleasing reappearance at Aintree behind fast improving Ely Brown, that was his first run since winning here at glamourous odds. If that run has had the desired affect and blown away the cobwebs, he could well upset a few major players today off a fly weight with Maurice Linehan taking off 7 pounds. One worry is that the stable are a bit hit and miss right now, but a positive is that Coffee ran a good race yesterday in a messy conditional jockeys hurdle. Not one to put your mortgage on but should go well.
Market support for ex top novice Bouggler would be interesting on his return from injury, he could potentially make his mark look silly.
3:40 Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery
He is a typical David Pipe improver whom i have been watching from the start of his career. Before his Stratford victory he had been behind some big names from leading stables, firstly at Hereford he fell behind Tour D'argent, then at Newbury he was behind Montbazon, Vulcanite and All the Aces. He is open to more improvement and past performances would suggest he isn't a 112 rated performer and shouldn't be for much longer. Today could be a great day for the Pipe Yard.
Definitely wouldnt put you off of a David Pipe lucky 31 today, some real solid chances across the card.
Our Father
Problema Tic (narrowly preferred to Ashkazar, both leading chances)
Grand Crus
Goulanes
Tanerko Emery
As always Happy Punting and here is for a better day than yesterday, it couldnt get much worse!
Today promises to be a great day of racing with a top class renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, featuring the likes of, Hunt Ball, Walkon and of course Grand Crus. Lets crack on.
12:45 Cheltenham - Far West
Mcvicar was a high class flat recruit to the Alan King yard and is two from two over timber. Today however he must give 4 pounds to leading triumph hurdle hope Far West. The selection was a very easy winner at Chepstow on his first run in this country, in the process beating another useful Alan King horse in Handazan. He has since won at Aintree in a race which the form is working out very nicely (3rd and 4th have been first and second). In the past two years Paul Nicholls has won this with the high class Sam Winner in 2010 and last year with Hinterland, Far West looks set to follow in their shoes today. 7/4 is on offer at the moment and that could prove a good price. One to watch out for at a price is Mick Channon's, Foster's Road after getting his head in front over hurdles at Fakenham, and then on the flat at Wolverhampton the last twice.
1:20 Cheltenham - Our Father
He was a huge gamble when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last year in taking style, it appeared after then that the world was at his feet before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. In truth however it has always looked as if he was a ready made chaser, and its eye catching that David Pipe introduces him here at such a high level first time. The two main rivals in the betting should be hard to beat, but both under penalties and giving Our Father weight he should be tough to beat. A big shout to the double David Pipe had yesterday which could mean a return to form for the yard.
1:55 Cheltenham - Poker De Sivola
He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown off todays mark and Ferdy Murphy always has been a little... Let's say shrewd. But onto the form side, he turned in a disappointing effort at Newcastle first time out, he was hampered that day though and was looked after. Robert Thornton gets the leg up which is a fairly unusual jockey booking by Murphy as he is rarely used, but Poker De Sivola seems to get on with any jockey aboard him. You may remember his supreme staying performance to win the National Hunt Chase here at the festival a couple of years back. Other wins at Sandown and Hexham show his liking for undulating courses, he gets a tentative each way vote today at 25/1
Unfortuanately he is a non runner, replace him with David Pipe's Ashkazar
2:35 Cheltenham - Triolo D'alene
The Nicky Henderson representative looked an exciting French import after beating Ackertac first time at Ascot before disappointing at Cheltenham. His jumping never stood him in good health that day, but a promising reappearance at Market Rasen reinstalls confidence. The form from that race is working out quite nicely with winners and placed horses in behind next time out. He looked as if he needed that opener badly when tiring two from home and proving no match for Zitenka. Possibly the biggest eye catcher is that Barry Geraghty has starved himself down to 10-1 to take the ride today, he had the choice of good handicapper Tanks For That (non runner) but kept the faith with Triolo D'alene.
I have heard glowing reports from Tom Cooper's yard about 2009 Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer who hasnt won since his festival success. He has however been very consistent without getting his day in the sun, if anywhere back to his best he will be a serious threat to all rivals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride.
One more to keep an eye out for is Ex festival winner Finger onthe Pulse who ran brilliantly here last time (behind Nadiya De La Vega) to come third, 40/1 looks too big. Positive that top Amateur Maurice Linehan gets on very well with him.
3:05 Cheltenham - Abnaki
Jonjo's representative made a pleasing reappearance at Aintree behind fast improving Ely Brown, that was his first run since winning here at glamourous odds. If that run has had the desired affect and blown away the cobwebs, he could well upset a few major players today off a fly weight with Maurice Linehan taking off 7 pounds. One worry is that the stable are a bit hit and miss right now, but a positive is that Coffee ran a good race yesterday in a messy conditional jockeys hurdle. Not one to put your mortgage on but should go well.
Market support for ex top novice Bouggler would be interesting on his return from injury, he could potentially make his mark look silly.
3:40 Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery
He is a typical David Pipe improver whom i have been watching from the start of his career. Before his Stratford victory he had been behind some big names from leading stables, firstly at Hereford he fell behind Tour D'argent, then at Newbury he was behind Montbazon, Vulcanite and All the Aces. He is open to more improvement and past performances would suggest he isn't a 112 rated performer and shouldn't be for much longer. Today could be a great day for the Pipe Yard.
Definitely wouldnt put you off of a David Pipe lucky 31 today, some real solid chances across the card.
Our Father
Problema Tic (narrowly preferred to Ashkazar, both leading chances)
Grand Crus
Goulanes
Tanerko Emery
As always Happy Punting and here is for a better day than yesterday, it couldnt get much worse!
Thursday, 15 November 2012
Cheltenham Open Meeting Day One
1:15 Cheltenham
Fingal Bay sets the standard here as far as chasing goes with a good win over Tiger O'Toole at Chepstow first time out. This however is a much better race and he must give weight to 2 main rivals. Dynaste is one of them, and last years top class staying hurdler now tries his hand at chasing. If he jumps a fence as well as he did a hurdle, he should have no problem making his presence felt. But with himself being an unknown quantity, Fingal Bay not doing much in front and the other two not looking good enough. I will take a chance with Paul Nicholls' representative, Unioniste, whose win at Aintree was no more than workmanlike. Darryl Jacob didnt really ask him for maximum effort until very late on however and in truth it was pretty comfortable. There were alot of fences shut off that day which will have held him back, as jumping looks his forte. Carlito Brigante was a long way behind then and he still receives weight for age from the top two. One last positive is that Cheltenham will be much more to his liking as he will eventually need further, but for now this is fine.
1:50 Cheltenham - Free World
Arthur Moore has one runner here all weekend with this ex Paul Nicholls inmate. He has more letters than numbers beside his name, but on his best form should take the beating, he was also still in contention when coming down 5 out in the Grand Annual. Davy Russell takes the ride and back on much preferred going, it'd surprise me were he not to find something near his best. Back in his Novice year he was beaten a neck by Araldur at Sandown, doing so he ran a faster time than Master Minded on the same day. He was then tried at the highest company but lost his way a tad, yet he still remains more than useful on his day and should be close up at the end.
2:25 Cheltenham - Duke Of Navan
Dodging Bullets looks the part here and the others could be playing for minor money after firmly putting Baby Mix and Hi Note in their places. Duke Of Navan looks to be the best each way bet and is probably too big of a price at 14/1. He was beaten 16 lengths by River Maigue in a bumper last year but pulled too hard that day and looked much improved when romping home at Newcastle last time out. He has the fitness edge over the Henderson representative today and could outdo Tominator in the jumping department. In my opinion he is the biggest threat to the favourite, again for Davy Russell and this time Nicky Richards.
3:00 Cheltenham - Sizing Australia
Henry De Bromhead's charge doesn't know how to run a bad race here and after a recent run over hurdles at Naas will have blown the cobwebs away. The connections of course had a winner yesterday with Sizing Europe romping the Clonmel Oil Chase as expected. This different destination named Sizing could well be another for the stable and owners. Should be one to go close and has a huge chance today.
3:35 Cheltenham - Coffee
As im writing this (4am England time, 8pm Vancouver time) there has been strong support for Titan De Sarti in this race. Jonjo O'Neill has been hit and miss early on this year with his string, but Coffee has been in good heart excluding his last race at Fontwell. Maurice Linehan rides Prestbury Park well and takes off a valuable 6 pounds taking the weight down to 11-1. With others in the field not in the best of form, the price currently offered for the selection looks too big (10/1 up to 14/1). As long as he can forget his last effort he should continue his progress this season and turn in another good effort.
4:05 Cheltenham - Jamsie Hall
This is one of the stronger bets of the day after turning in a good effort last time here behind Nadiya De La Vega. He managed fourth that day and was best of the hold up horses after the three front ones got away. It was no Surprise to see him staying on strongly at the end of the day last time as it was a trip far too short. the return to three miles will be right up his street after a fourth in the Kerry National earlier this year. Some of you may remember today's pilot from his Cheltenham festival winning ride aboard Character Building in 09. That is when he burst onto the scene and has remained an Amateur since, also being one of the best Amateurs in the game. He won the Kim Muir that day and has continued to ride at the top level in following years. The biggest threat to Jamsie Hall is the novice There's No Panic who is unbeaten this year.
That concludes day one at Cheltenham, but one horse I expect to go well at Newcastle is the fantastically named Lukie (wonder why?). He will have matured no end over the summer after being green in his first two bumpers. Should be an attractive price.
I will do my best to get a blog up tomorrow, but before I go today. My ten to follow this year are:
Ambion Wood (stable star)
Big Bucks
For Non Stop
Flemenstar
Cue Card
Pique Sous
Champagne Fever
Grandouet
Captain Conan
Sanctuaire
Happy Punting guys
Fingal Bay sets the standard here as far as chasing goes with a good win over Tiger O'Toole at Chepstow first time out. This however is a much better race and he must give weight to 2 main rivals. Dynaste is one of them, and last years top class staying hurdler now tries his hand at chasing. If he jumps a fence as well as he did a hurdle, he should have no problem making his presence felt. But with himself being an unknown quantity, Fingal Bay not doing much in front and the other two not looking good enough. I will take a chance with Paul Nicholls' representative, Unioniste, whose win at Aintree was no more than workmanlike. Darryl Jacob didnt really ask him for maximum effort until very late on however and in truth it was pretty comfortable. There were alot of fences shut off that day which will have held him back, as jumping looks his forte. Carlito Brigante was a long way behind then and he still receives weight for age from the top two. One last positive is that Cheltenham will be much more to his liking as he will eventually need further, but for now this is fine.
1:50 Cheltenham - Free World
Arthur Moore has one runner here all weekend with this ex Paul Nicholls inmate. He has more letters than numbers beside his name, but on his best form should take the beating, he was also still in contention when coming down 5 out in the Grand Annual. Davy Russell takes the ride and back on much preferred going, it'd surprise me were he not to find something near his best. Back in his Novice year he was beaten a neck by Araldur at Sandown, doing so he ran a faster time than Master Minded on the same day. He was then tried at the highest company but lost his way a tad, yet he still remains more than useful on his day and should be close up at the end.
2:25 Cheltenham - Duke Of Navan
Dodging Bullets looks the part here and the others could be playing for minor money after firmly putting Baby Mix and Hi Note in their places. Duke Of Navan looks to be the best each way bet and is probably too big of a price at 14/1. He was beaten 16 lengths by River Maigue in a bumper last year but pulled too hard that day and looked much improved when romping home at Newcastle last time out. He has the fitness edge over the Henderson representative today and could outdo Tominator in the jumping department. In my opinion he is the biggest threat to the favourite, again for Davy Russell and this time Nicky Richards.
3:00 Cheltenham - Sizing Australia
Henry De Bromhead's charge doesn't know how to run a bad race here and after a recent run over hurdles at Naas will have blown the cobwebs away. The connections of course had a winner yesterday with Sizing Europe romping the Clonmel Oil Chase as expected. This different destination named Sizing could well be another for the stable and owners. Should be one to go close and has a huge chance today.
3:35 Cheltenham - Coffee
As im writing this (4am England time, 8pm Vancouver time) there has been strong support for Titan De Sarti in this race. Jonjo O'Neill has been hit and miss early on this year with his string, but Coffee has been in good heart excluding his last race at Fontwell. Maurice Linehan rides Prestbury Park well and takes off a valuable 6 pounds taking the weight down to 11-1. With others in the field not in the best of form, the price currently offered for the selection looks too big (10/1 up to 14/1). As long as he can forget his last effort he should continue his progress this season and turn in another good effort.
4:05 Cheltenham - Jamsie Hall
This is one of the stronger bets of the day after turning in a good effort last time here behind Nadiya De La Vega. He managed fourth that day and was best of the hold up horses after the three front ones got away. It was no Surprise to see him staying on strongly at the end of the day last time as it was a trip far too short. the return to three miles will be right up his street after a fourth in the Kerry National earlier this year. Some of you may remember today's pilot from his Cheltenham festival winning ride aboard Character Building in 09. That is when he burst onto the scene and has remained an Amateur since, also being one of the best Amateurs in the game. He won the Kim Muir that day and has continued to ride at the top level in following years. The biggest threat to Jamsie Hall is the novice There's No Panic who is unbeaten this year.
That concludes day one at Cheltenham, but one horse I expect to go well at Newcastle is the fantastically named Lukie (wonder why?). He will have matured no end over the summer after being green in his first two bumpers. Should be an attractive price.
I will do my best to get a blog up tomorrow, but before I go today. My ten to follow this year are:
Ambion Wood (stable star)
Big Bucks
For Non Stop
Flemenstar
Cue Card
Pique Sous
Champagne Fever
Grandouet
Captain Conan
Sanctuaire
Happy Punting guys
Thursday, 27 September 2012
2012 National Hunt Season Profiles - Captain Conan
Nicky Henderson's French inmate out of Lavandou made a fantastic start to life in England by winning the Tolworth hurdle, albeit beating a below par Prospect Wells and a hanging Colour Squadron. It seemed that he would be the novice to come through and challenge at the top. However Henderson kept him on the quiet side with the plan of chasing this year on the agenda.
He disappointed majorly at Leopardstown in a race won by Benefficient (50/1) before again putting in a below par effort at Kelso. It appeared that the Tolworth victory was just a fluke, until he dropped back to two miles at Aintree. Looking like the winner for much of the straight he eventually gave way and settled for second behind Darlan (2nd in the supreme). That day was probably his best run to date and reinstalled the faith of his followers.
In truth Chasing always was going to be his game and his stature suggests that. He is an absolute mountain of a horse towering well above the others in the field and should take to fences nicely. The main danger in the early market for the Arkle is stablemate Simonsig who is sure to be the mount of Barry Geraghty. The presence of him could just mean Captain Conan goes a little under the radar. Another possibility is a crack at 2 and a half miles, he looks like a horse that will get further in time, however last year he barely got over two miles.
This season should bring a new lease of life to Captain Conan and i'd be surprised if at the end of the year he weren't one of the top novices. Available right now at around 14/1 for the Arkle and 16/1 for The Jewson in March, im not sure as of yet what route they are taking with him, or where his first run shall be.
Thanks guys, happy punting.
P.S Agent Archie looks a steal at Stratford tomorrow in the 1:35, 2/1 is available. If fit he should win after being a very useful novice last year.
He disappointed majorly at Leopardstown in a race won by Benefficient (50/1) before again putting in a below par effort at Kelso. It appeared that the Tolworth victory was just a fluke, until he dropped back to two miles at Aintree. Looking like the winner for much of the straight he eventually gave way and settled for second behind Darlan (2nd in the supreme). That day was probably his best run to date and reinstalled the faith of his followers.
In truth Chasing always was going to be his game and his stature suggests that. He is an absolute mountain of a horse towering well above the others in the field and should take to fences nicely. The main danger in the early market for the Arkle is stablemate Simonsig who is sure to be the mount of Barry Geraghty. The presence of him could just mean Captain Conan goes a little under the radar. Another possibility is a crack at 2 and a half miles, he looks like a horse that will get further in time, however last year he barely got over two miles.
This season should bring a new lease of life to Captain Conan and i'd be surprised if at the end of the year he weren't one of the top novices. Available right now at around 14/1 for the Arkle and 16/1 for The Jewson in March, im not sure as of yet what route they are taking with him, or where his first run shall be.
Thanks guys, happy punting.
P.S Agent Archie looks a steal at Stratford tomorrow in the 1:35, 2/1 is available. If fit he should win after being a very useful novice last year.
Wednesday, 26 September 2012
2012 National Hunt Season Profiles - Ambion Wood
Hey guys, sorry there hasn't been a new blog in a few months, but we have been settling in, in Canada (which has all gone smoothly).
This is a new feature in this blog, basically I will throw in horses to follow for the season, be it novices or seasoned horses that have been forgotten. Pretty much a horse that i think will pay for itself for the season and should be followed.
First up is Victor Dartnall's exciting Novice chaser Ambion Wood. He is probably the horse i am most looking forward to seeing this season over fences. Reasoning for this is the sheer size of him, he looks like a real chaser and had some top form over hurdles. Horses he was behind last year include Cotton Mill (who ran out at Cheltenham when leading Simonsig two out) and the late Brindisi Breeze (Who of course won the Albert Bartlett).
He really came into his own at the back end of last year winning a really competitive novice handicap at Sandown easily, before dotting up at Perth. In truth he has never really ran a bad race in his career, with a worst place finish of 5th. I have kept my eye on him since I saw his first run at Sandown in a bumper behind Make a Track. The winner has since gone on to show his talent being placed at Cheltenham.
I believe the route being taken this year is to start off with a Novice Chase at Exeter in November and if victorious going on to better races, culminating in the RSA in March. He is around a 25/1 mark for Cheltenham and could be the biggest improver in the 3 mile division.
One more positive before I wrap this up is that Cheltenham should be a course right up his street after winning at Sandown and Chepstow, proving a liking for undulating testing courses. Denis O'Regan must be licking his lips at the thought of getting the leg up on Ambion Wood this season.
Hopefully a few of you agree with the first selection and if not then let me know who you would prefer by messaging me. Hopefully another profile will be up tomorrow and they shall continue.
Happy Punting
This is a new feature in this blog, basically I will throw in horses to follow for the season, be it novices or seasoned horses that have been forgotten. Pretty much a horse that i think will pay for itself for the season and should be followed.
First up is Victor Dartnall's exciting Novice chaser Ambion Wood. He is probably the horse i am most looking forward to seeing this season over fences. Reasoning for this is the sheer size of him, he looks like a real chaser and had some top form over hurdles. Horses he was behind last year include Cotton Mill (who ran out at Cheltenham when leading Simonsig two out) and the late Brindisi Breeze (Who of course won the Albert Bartlett).
He really came into his own at the back end of last year winning a really competitive novice handicap at Sandown easily, before dotting up at Perth. In truth he has never really ran a bad race in his career, with a worst place finish of 5th. I have kept my eye on him since I saw his first run at Sandown in a bumper behind Make a Track. The winner has since gone on to show his talent being placed at Cheltenham.
I believe the route being taken this year is to start off with a Novice Chase at Exeter in November and if victorious going on to better races, culminating in the RSA in March. He is around a 25/1 mark for Cheltenham and could be the biggest improver in the 3 mile division.
One more positive before I wrap this up is that Cheltenham should be a course right up his street after winning at Sandown and Chepstow, proving a liking for undulating testing courses. Denis O'Regan must be licking his lips at the thought of getting the leg up on Ambion Wood this season.
Hopefully a few of you agree with the first selection and if not then let me know who you would prefer by messaging me. Hopefully another profile will be up tomorrow and they shall continue.
Happy Punting
Friday, 13 July 2012
Time For a Change
Last week was a very average week for us, only two bets landed with 8/1 and 10/1 places. Today the going is looking to be on the testing side which could blow some of the fields wide open across the country. Also i passed 100 followers on twitter this week (mostly racing related). If you aren't following me then you can @lukeyboy1325 where during the week I post fancies etc.
One more topic of discussion, next Friday I am moving to Canada for the foreseeable future and will be trying to keep up to date with English racing. If there are less posts than now then that is the reason why, who knows I may throw in a few Canadian races. Onwards and Upwards though
2:10 Newmarket - Maxentius - A very smart performer from his two starts thus far. Hails from a yard in the form of their life lately and one of the most in form jockeys on board in William Buick. He absolutely cantered home in his last race at Doncaster when being eased down late on. This Colt by Holy Roman Emperor should take all the beating today and will be fresher than Olympic Village after bypassing Royal Ascot. Should take all the beating today. (3/1)
2:25 York - Bolivia - She is a mare by Monsun who has been doing well with his offspring. Bolivia is a 6 year old though, a lightly raced one at that. I think she was a selection when she absolutely bolted in at Sandown a few weeks back. She has been raised 10 pounds for that effort and that shouldnt be enough to stop her today on this testing ground she dearly loves. Always one that is there but you got the feeling she turned over a new leaf in her last run and should go well at decent odds again today. (12/1)
3:20 Newmarket - Sirius Prospect - Yet to refind his best form from last year when winning a listed race at Doncaster on Soft ground. He came late that day and that could just play to his advantages here today with pace almost guaranteed on testing ground. The return to testing ground should see an improvement in his performance, also the most encouraging factor was his return to form behind Black Caviar last time at Ascot. He has a bit of work to do if he is to reverse running with Society Rock from last time though. Real chance (14/1)
3:35 York - Caledonia Lady - I couldn't believe the price she is when I first saw her. I was there last week when she won the Coral Charge very easily after running into horrific traffic problems. Hayley Turner keeps the ride today after winning last week. She has ridden this horse 3 times finishing 4th, 2nd and 1st and she obviously gets on very well with the horse. Today should be another big race for her to claim. (8/1)
4:30 Newmarket - Janoub Nibras - Yesterday the Hannon stable was flying and today should be another big day for him and stable jockey Richard Hughes. This looks to be their best chance of the day however after just prevailing at Kempton in a two horse race. The return to turf looks to be the much in his favour today after finishing 3rd on debut in testing ground at Ascot. On debut he was behind the impressive Cay Verde and Hototo who have both won big races since. Should be bang there (9/2)
Hopefully today will throw up a few winners and spark a return to form from last week, I also hope that I am able to put up a blog next week, but only time will tell.
thank you for reading, happy punting
One more topic of discussion, next Friday I am moving to Canada for the foreseeable future and will be trying to keep up to date with English racing. If there are less posts than now then that is the reason why, who knows I may throw in a few Canadian races. Onwards and Upwards though
2:10 Newmarket - Maxentius - A very smart performer from his two starts thus far. Hails from a yard in the form of their life lately and one of the most in form jockeys on board in William Buick. He absolutely cantered home in his last race at Doncaster when being eased down late on. This Colt by Holy Roman Emperor should take all the beating today and will be fresher than Olympic Village after bypassing Royal Ascot. Should take all the beating today. (3/1)
2:25 York - Bolivia - She is a mare by Monsun who has been doing well with his offspring. Bolivia is a 6 year old though, a lightly raced one at that. I think she was a selection when she absolutely bolted in at Sandown a few weeks back. She has been raised 10 pounds for that effort and that shouldnt be enough to stop her today on this testing ground she dearly loves. Always one that is there but you got the feeling she turned over a new leaf in her last run and should go well at decent odds again today. (12/1)
3:20 Newmarket - Sirius Prospect - Yet to refind his best form from last year when winning a listed race at Doncaster on Soft ground. He came late that day and that could just play to his advantages here today with pace almost guaranteed on testing ground. The return to testing ground should see an improvement in his performance, also the most encouraging factor was his return to form behind Black Caviar last time at Ascot. He has a bit of work to do if he is to reverse running with Society Rock from last time though. Real chance (14/1)
3:35 York - Caledonia Lady - I couldn't believe the price she is when I first saw her. I was there last week when she won the Coral Charge very easily after running into horrific traffic problems. Hayley Turner keeps the ride today after winning last week. She has ridden this horse 3 times finishing 4th, 2nd and 1st and she obviously gets on very well with the horse. Today should be another big race for her to claim. (8/1)
4:30 Newmarket - Janoub Nibras - Yesterday the Hannon stable was flying and today should be another big day for him and stable jockey Richard Hughes. This looks to be their best chance of the day however after just prevailing at Kempton in a two horse race. The return to turf looks to be the much in his favour today after finishing 3rd on debut in testing ground at Ascot. On debut he was behind the impressive Cay Verde and Hototo who have both won big races since. Should be bang there (9/2)
Hopefully today will throw up a few winners and spark a return to form from last week, I also hope that I am able to put up a blog next week, but only time will tell.
thank you for reading, happy punting
Friday, 6 July 2012
Sandown Eclipse day
Sorry there was no blog last week but I was busy and had prior engagements, lets just hope that this week we are back with a bang this week. I'm not far away from Sandown and as off 10pm it isn't raining which means the going will be testing but not too bad. I'm off to Sandown today and will be hoping for a good days racing, even though its a huge shame So You Think doesn't and has been retired.
1:30 - Sandown Park -Rocky Reef - Andrew Balding will be hoping for a good start to the day with Bonfire running in the big one later on. This one scored last time out on his step up to this trip at Chepstow on very testing ground. Soft ground would aid his chances no end but it doesn't seem a necessity as he has run well on faster ground. He has to run from two pounds out of the handicap today but it isn't the end of the world and he is an improving horse. If the overnight rain comes then everything will be in his favour but he should go close regardless.
2:05 - Sandown Park - Judge n Jury - A bold front running horse who has been a revelation this year running in much better races going down half a length in a group 3 at the Curragh last time. A powerful jockey booking in Luke Morris today who is really coming into his own this year. The more rain in the ground the better for this lad, but again goes well on quicker ground also. A good draw for these sprints at Sandown as historically lower numbers do prevail and he is out of stall 3 today. Shouldn't be out of the places.
2:40 - Sandown Park - Spa's Dancer - Absolutely loves it here, in five visits to the course he has never been out of the first four recording 2 wins along the way. He is another one that will be doing a rain dance in his stable tonight after hitting a rich vein of form when discovering soft ground. The most eyecatching part of his entry today is the fact that Ed De Giles has booked Tom Queally for the first time which shouldn't go un-noticed. Another bold show expected.
3:10 - Sandown Park - Starscope - Ran a blinder in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting and has been consistent all year without managing to get her head in front. Today should finally be the day she gets out on top and this would appear to be her distance. There doesn't look to be anything of the class she has been running against here today and she really should mop up here. John Gosden's stable is in good form as per always.
3:45 - Sandown Park - Crackerjack King - Probably the unknown quantity here in the sense that he has never ventured to these shores but in other countries he has some really smart form. In Cappanelle he had Sri Putra well beaten and also beat German Derby winner Waldpark that day. The going was much firmer that day but he should handle this ground fine and the booking of Ryan Moore really catches the eye. Everything points towards a big run today and should go close.
4:20 - Sandown Park - Thimaar - An absolute giant of a horse and one who will appreciate getting his toe in the ground. His form from the Sagaro last time is possibly the strongest staying form around from the early season, that day finishing behind Colour Vision and Red Cadeaux who have both gone on to much better things. The switch to turf will help the Gosden horse no end today and this could be the second John Gosden trained winner of the day.
4:55 - Sandown Park - Fortieth And Fifth - Very unlucky when a beaten favourite at Ripon the other week when Hayley Turner admitted wasn't her best ride. He was slow away that day and got no run till late on yet still ran on into a good third. Before that he was an impressive winner at Hamilton and a reproduction of that will see him in front at the line today.
Happy Punting today guys, lets hope for a couple of winners!
1:30 - Sandown Park -Rocky Reef - Andrew Balding will be hoping for a good start to the day with Bonfire running in the big one later on. This one scored last time out on his step up to this trip at Chepstow on very testing ground. Soft ground would aid his chances no end but it doesn't seem a necessity as he has run well on faster ground. He has to run from two pounds out of the handicap today but it isn't the end of the world and he is an improving horse. If the overnight rain comes then everything will be in his favour but he should go close regardless.
2:05 - Sandown Park - Judge n Jury - A bold front running horse who has been a revelation this year running in much better races going down half a length in a group 3 at the Curragh last time. A powerful jockey booking in Luke Morris today who is really coming into his own this year. The more rain in the ground the better for this lad, but again goes well on quicker ground also. A good draw for these sprints at Sandown as historically lower numbers do prevail and he is out of stall 3 today. Shouldn't be out of the places.
2:40 - Sandown Park - Spa's Dancer - Absolutely loves it here, in five visits to the course he has never been out of the first four recording 2 wins along the way. He is another one that will be doing a rain dance in his stable tonight after hitting a rich vein of form when discovering soft ground. The most eyecatching part of his entry today is the fact that Ed De Giles has booked Tom Queally for the first time which shouldn't go un-noticed. Another bold show expected.
3:10 - Sandown Park - Starscope - Ran a blinder in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting and has been consistent all year without managing to get her head in front. Today should finally be the day she gets out on top and this would appear to be her distance. There doesn't look to be anything of the class she has been running against here today and she really should mop up here. John Gosden's stable is in good form as per always.
3:45 - Sandown Park - Crackerjack King - Probably the unknown quantity here in the sense that he has never ventured to these shores but in other countries he has some really smart form. In Cappanelle he had Sri Putra well beaten and also beat German Derby winner Waldpark that day. The going was much firmer that day but he should handle this ground fine and the booking of Ryan Moore really catches the eye. Everything points towards a big run today and should go close.
4:20 - Sandown Park - Thimaar - An absolute giant of a horse and one who will appreciate getting his toe in the ground. His form from the Sagaro last time is possibly the strongest staying form around from the early season, that day finishing behind Colour Vision and Red Cadeaux who have both gone on to much better things. The switch to turf will help the Gosden horse no end today and this could be the second John Gosden trained winner of the day.
4:55 - Sandown Park - Fortieth And Fifth - Very unlucky when a beaten favourite at Ripon the other week when Hayley Turner admitted wasn't her best ride. He was slow away that day and got no run till late on yet still ran on into a good third. Before that he was an impressive winner at Hamilton and a reproduction of that will see him in front at the line today.
Happy Punting today guys, lets hope for a couple of winners!
Friday, 22 June 2012
Final day of Royal Ascot
Well yesterday was more like it, with a 9/4 winner and a 40/1 place (both advised prices). I'd also consider Noble Mission a very unlucky loser after being broad sided by Thought Worthy when just starting his finishing run.
Quickly onto today.
2:30 Ascot - Chesham Stakes - Effie B - Last time missed the break and looked to be screaming out for a longer trip after staying on behind Sir Prancealot in the National stakes at Sandown. Whether the step up to 7 furlongs straight away will be too much will be answered today. A win on softer ground is the stand out form for me and providing she jumps better today could well be her big day.
Pasaka Boy - Only one run but that was a winning one on very soft ground at Salisbury at 50/1. That day he looked like he was screaming out for a longer distance scoring by a neck to a Ralph Beckett Gelding. The race he won wasn't the strongest but was still a good maiden and the first two were a little way clear of the others. He should improve enough to at least place today.
3:05 Ascot - Hardwicke Stakes - Aiken - A renowned mudlark who is confirmed round this course, he made all at Chantilly last time when winning a group 2. Yesterday the Buick and Gosden team were bang in form and today should be no different with this horse unbeaten in his last 6 races. Obviously today is a bigger ask but he should be up to winning this task.
3:45 Ascot - Golden Jubilee Stakes - Society Rock - Last years winner who came right back to form when third at York last time behind Tiddliwinks. Last year he won this race on testing ground and without Black Caviar he would be fancied to go back to back. He also finished a good second at Deauville in France behind Moonlight Cloud and ahead of the once top class Marchand D'or. Johnny Murtagh takes the ride this time from regular jockey Pat Cosgrave.
4:25 Ascot - Wokingham handicap stakes - Seal Rock - Everytime there is give in the ground he seems to provide his best performance and gave in a good performance off the same mark as today. Even though it is a power packed field today he is the only selection and should be up to winning this if giving his best performance. He hails from a stable in decent enough form and everything considered should not be out of the places today.
5:00 Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap - Right Step - One for Alan Jarvis here in a good handicap, but two runs ago he was impressive at Epsom on testing ground and it would seem that anymore rain will be a bonus. Looking at his track record it would seem he is an ultra consistent type and is ready to make it at the top level, just like today. The stable had a good winner at York the other day and this could be another big one.
5:35 Ascot - Queen Alexandra Stakes - Golden Sunbird - The jumps boys have already had a winner this week with Simenon going in for Willie Mullins. This could be another for Ireland and another one for the jumpers. This is the only winner that Paul Nolan has bought over for the week and they had a confidence boosting winner in their last runner at Wexford a couple of days ago. This could be a well deserved big winner for the stable, a bonus being that he is a confirmed winner on this testing ground. One for the Irish
Happy Punting today
Quickly onto today.
2:30 Ascot - Chesham Stakes - Effie B - Last time missed the break and looked to be screaming out for a longer trip after staying on behind Sir Prancealot in the National stakes at Sandown. Whether the step up to 7 furlongs straight away will be too much will be answered today. A win on softer ground is the stand out form for me and providing she jumps better today could well be her big day.
Pasaka Boy - Only one run but that was a winning one on very soft ground at Salisbury at 50/1. That day he looked like he was screaming out for a longer distance scoring by a neck to a Ralph Beckett Gelding. The race he won wasn't the strongest but was still a good maiden and the first two were a little way clear of the others. He should improve enough to at least place today.
3:05 Ascot - Hardwicke Stakes - Aiken - A renowned mudlark who is confirmed round this course, he made all at Chantilly last time when winning a group 2. Yesterday the Buick and Gosden team were bang in form and today should be no different with this horse unbeaten in his last 6 races. Obviously today is a bigger ask but he should be up to winning this task.
3:45 Ascot - Golden Jubilee Stakes - Society Rock - Last years winner who came right back to form when third at York last time behind Tiddliwinks. Last year he won this race on testing ground and without Black Caviar he would be fancied to go back to back. He also finished a good second at Deauville in France behind Moonlight Cloud and ahead of the once top class Marchand D'or. Johnny Murtagh takes the ride this time from regular jockey Pat Cosgrave.
4:25 Ascot - Wokingham handicap stakes - Seal Rock - Everytime there is give in the ground he seems to provide his best performance and gave in a good performance off the same mark as today. Even though it is a power packed field today he is the only selection and should be up to winning this if giving his best performance. He hails from a stable in decent enough form and everything considered should not be out of the places today.
5:00 Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap - Right Step - One for Alan Jarvis here in a good handicap, but two runs ago he was impressive at Epsom on testing ground and it would seem that anymore rain will be a bonus. Looking at his track record it would seem he is an ultra consistent type and is ready to make it at the top level, just like today. The stable had a good winner at York the other day and this could be another big one.
5:35 Ascot - Queen Alexandra Stakes - Golden Sunbird - The jumps boys have already had a winner this week with Simenon going in for Willie Mullins. This could be another for Ireland and another one for the jumpers. This is the only winner that Paul Nolan has bought over for the week and they had a confidence boosting winner in their last runner at Wexford a couple of days ago. This could be a well deserved big winner for the stable, a bonus being that he is a confirmed winner on this testing ground. One for the Irish
Happy Punting today
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Royal Ascot Day 4
Well yesterday was an absolute shocker by anyone's standards and I suppose is best forgotten, today is a new day and lets just hope that it will be one of a different fortune.
It was nice to see Frankie get a winner yesterday in the big race aboard Colour Vision, narrowly beating the horse he shunned in the race, Opinion Poll. Fame and Glory was the disappointment of the race and there were a few suspicions of an injury, we shall have to cross our fingers he is fine.
Onto what i hope will be a more positive day results wise.
2:30 Ascot - Albany Stakes - Newfangled - The obvious choice for the opener after winning his only start by 4 lengths on soft ground, also helping coming from the bang in form John Gosden yard. On debut he beat a Richard Hannon hot pot who in turn was clear of the rest of the field. William Buick remains very sweet on this one and is riding out of his skin as of late for a range of trainers. The breeding of this horse catches the eye as well being a daughter of Derby winner New Approach, who has already had a winner this week when Dawn Approach won the Coventry.
3:05 Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes - Noble Mission - A horse that needs no introduction, being Frankel's full brother. He hasn't quite filled the shoes of his big brother, but then again can any horse fill them shoes. Without the tag he carries everyone would be singing his praises especially with the connections he represents. The most interesting form he boasts for me is from his first win when he won on ground that was very testing (much more testing that the going suggested) fairly easily. The step up to 12 furlongs should play right into his favour and is fancied to land this with freshness on his side.
3:45 Ascot - Coronation Stakes - Homecoming Queen - As i'm sure everyone remembers, she was emphatic when winning the 1000 guineas at 25/1 on fairly testing ground. The faster ground was probably her undoing when soundly beaten by Samitar in the Irish equivalent. Back on more testing ground she should take all the beating after Joseph O'Brien looked after her when beaten last time out and should be ready to take this race with open arms. Intense Pink could be worth an each way shout.
4:25 Ascot - Wolferton Handicap - Danadana - Kieren Fallon has gone on record as saying this is his best chance of the week, ideally he would have preferred firmer ground, however softer ground isn't the end of the world. Luca Cumani is renowned for bringing improvement out in a horse, this looks his typical type and one that is definitely going the right way. A strong each way chance.
Qaraaba - Possibly the biggest improver in the field as four runs ago she was rated 76 when winning, today she runs off a mark of 101 and still looks to have plenty in hand. She was a very easy winner last time out at Doncaster when beating Dragonera (who has since come second in the Warwickshire Oaks) by three lengths. The second and third in that race were placed next time out and the 5th placed horse won very easily at Sandown last week. Her only defeat in the last four runs came via the other selection today on much faster ground. Main selection today.
5:00 Ascot - Queen's Vase - Macbeth - He has shown a liking for softer conditions back in Ireland and his only win has come over the longest trip he has tried when staying all the way to the line over 1m 4f. Johnny Murtagh is a positive jockey booking for today and the step up to two miles can bring out much further improvement. hails from a stable in decent enough form and if all things go well he should take all the beating today.
5:35 Ascot - Buckingham Palace Stakes - Global Village - Brian Ellison's gelding won a big handicap over course and distance last time out and possibly more importantly on testing ground. Kieren Fallon looks to be a positive jockey booking as he isn't used that often at all by the trainer. He suffers a rise of 6 pounds today which shouldn't be enough to stop this improving horse. He could just be good enough to win the last race on the fourth day.
Atlantic Sport - One at more glamorous odds but he has been slipping down the weights for a while now and could be ready to strike today for the in form Mick Channon. He hasn't won since 2008 but has slipped down from a rating of 107 and runs off a mark of 92 today which he could make mince meat of. An American bred horse but he has shown a liking for softer ground in the past and Martin Harley will look to come down the near side rail with him. Since rejoining Mick Channon's yard (from Mike De Kock) he has been doing pretty well for himself with some good placed efforts and has a chance of another one today.
Hopefully there are some winners amongst them and some good priced places.
Happy Punting
It was nice to see Frankie get a winner yesterday in the big race aboard Colour Vision, narrowly beating the horse he shunned in the race, Opinion Poll. Fame and Glory was the disappointment of the race and there were a few suspicions of an injury, we shall have to cross our fingers he is fine.
Onto what i hope will be a more positive day results wise.
2:30 Ascot - Albany Stakes - Newfangled - The obvious choice for the opener after winning his only start by 4 lengths on soft ground, also helping coming from the bang in form John Gosden yard. On debut he beat a Richard Hannon hot pot who in turn was clear of the rest of the field. William Buick remains very sweet on this one and is riding out of his skin as of late for a range of trainers. The breeding of this horse catches the eye as well being a daughter of Derby winner New Approach, who has already had a winner this week when Dawn Approach won the Coventry.
3:05 Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes - Noble Mission - A horse that needs no introduction, being Frankel's full brother. He hasn't quite filled the shoes of his big brother, but then again can any horse fill them shoes. Without the tag he carries everyone would be singing his praises especially with the connections he represents. The most interesting form he boasts for me is from his first win when he won on ground that was very testing (much more testing that the going suggested) fairly easily. The step up to 12 furlongs should play right into his favour and is fancied to land this with freshness on his side.
3:45 Ascot - Coronation Stakes - Homecoming Queen - As i'm sure everyone remembers, she was emphatic when winning the 1000 guineas at 25/1 on fairly testing ground. The faster ground was probably her undoing when soundly beaten by Samitar in the Irish equivalent. Back on more testing ground she should take all the beating after Joseph O'Brien looked after her when beaten last time out and should be ready to take this race with open arms. Intense Pink could be worth an each way shout.
4:25 Ascot - Wolferton Handicap - Danadana - Kieren Fallon has gone on record as saying this is his best chance of the week, ideally he would have preferred firmer ground, however softer ground isn't the end of the world. Luca Cumani is renowned for bringing improvement out in a horse, this looks his typical type and one that is definitely going the right way. A strong each way chance.
Qaraaba - Possibly the biggest improver in the field as four runs ago she was rated 76 when winning, today she runs off a mark of 101 and still looks to have plenty in hand. She was a very easy winner last time out at Doncaster when beating Dragonera (who has since come second in the Warwickshire Oaks) by three lengths. The second and third in that race were placed next time out and the 5th placed horse won very easily at Sandown last week. Her only defeat in the last four runs came via the other selection today on much faster ground. Main selection today.
5:00 Ascot - Queen's Vase - Macbeth - He has shown a liking for softer conditions back in Ireland and his only win has come over the longest trip he has tried when staying all the way to the line over 1m 4f. Johnny Murtagh is a positive jockey booking for today and the step up to two miles can bring out much further improvement. hails from a stable in decent enough form and if all things go well he should take all the beating today.
5:35 Ascot - Buckingham Palace Stakes - Global Village - Brian Ellison's gelding won a big handicap over course and distance last time out and possibly more importantly on testing ground. Kieren Fallon looks to be a positive jockey booking as he isn't used that often at all by the trainer. He suffers a rise of 6 pounds today which shouldn't be enough to stop this improving horse. He could just be good enough to win the last race on the fourth day.
Atlantic Sport - One at more glamorous odds but he has been slipping down the weights for a while now and could be ready to strike today for the in form Mick Channon. He hasn't won since 2008 but has slipped down from a rating of 107 and runs off a mark of 92 today which he could make mince meat of. An American bred horse but he has shown a liking for softer ground in the past and Martin Harley will look to come down the near side rail with him. Since rejoining Mick Channon's yard (from Mike De Kock) he has been doing pretty well for himself with some good placed efforts and has a chance of another one today.
Hopefully there are some winners amongst them and some good priced places.
Happy Punting
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Royal Ascot Day Three
Well yesterday didn't go to plan at all, Chachamaidee being the most positive result just being beat into second by Joviality. You cant help but feel that she would have won had she not missed the break as badly as she did.
One last thing before we begin day three. Curlin had his first runner as a sire tonight at Kempton, Savanna La Mar. I was very impressed by how she handled all the preliminaries and didn't bat an eyelid to going in the stalls. Throughout the race she travelled powerfully and got into top gear a bit too late just being denied. She will be winning next time out over further.
On we go.
2:30 Ascot - Norfolk Stakes - Cay Verde - This one has already won for the blog when successful last time out at The Curragh in Ireland. In truth I have followed Mick Channon's colt since his first run when an encouraging fifth at Newbury, following up by routing a good field over course and distance. Windsor Castle winner Hototo was soundly behind in second that day. After winning pretty comfortably last time out, in my opinion all he needs to do is turn up to win this race today. Notable that Mick Channon has booked Craig Williams (jockey of Ortensia) to ride this afternoon. (NAP)
3:05 Ascot - Ribblesdale Stakes - Vow - Possibly a strange one in some people's opinions. But I have no doubt in my mind that if the Oaks was run on a flat course (like today) she would have come out on top. It was clear that she absolutely hated the track at Epsom when hanging down the camber all the way down the straight. The Fugue didn't get a clear run in her own right but handled the course a lot better than the selection today. William Haggas' filly is worth another try on this flat track. Princess Highway could be the biggest danger.
3:45 Ascot - Gold Cup - Saddler's Rock - One that I have fancied for some time now ever since beating Opinion Poll pretty easily in the Doncaster Cup last year. He has ran once since then and John Oxx had made it no secret that it was only to be a prep run for a crack at this race. That day he beat Unaccompanied by a length which was marginally longer than Fame and Glory beat her before that. He will be much more straight for that run and should take all the beating today.
4:25 Ascot - Britannia Stakes - Prince Alzain - A much improved performance last time at Epsom when 3rd to Laffan in a Handicap. He was staying on in very taking style over the 7 furlongs to be beaten just under 2 lengths, that was his first time in a handicap and the step up in trip will be in his favour. Before that he had been outclassed by Thought Worthy and Noble Mission, but handicapping looks where his near future lies. A real chance in a competitive race.
Trader Jack - One that isn't much of a price, but there is a perfectly good reason for that in a sense that he ran Grandeur (next race) to 2 and a quarter lengths from level weights. He is up 3 pounds from that day to a mark of 91 but that shouldn't be enough to prevent a good run today. Roger Charlton and James Doyle have got off to a flyer this season and it would be no surprise if this one were to pop up today.
5:00 Ascot - Tercentenary Stakes - Grandeur - One that I am still adamant will make up into a group performer, he ran very well last time at Epsom when not really handling the course. He was still an unlucky loser that day behind Wrotham Heath, who he should reverse placings with today. Usually William Buick rides this one for Jeremy Noseda, he is retained by John Gosden today but I suppose Frankie Dettori isn't the worst replacement in the world. 7/1 is available in a few places tonight, which is far too big a price, wont be out of the places and should win. (NB)
5:35 Ascot - King George V Stakes - Prussian - She won a strong handicap last time out at Redcar, She is raised 3 pounds for that effort which shouldn't take too much of a toll on her. She was the first one off the bridle that day and didn't get going for a while, she took every yard of the trip to really get going in to full stride. She steps up in trip as a result of that today and despite not being the first string for Sheikh Hamdan she should go close.
Uriah Heep - Disappointing at Chester last time out but he didn't handle the track, before that he was a head behind Minimise Risk who went on to run a decent enough race in the Derby. His last two runs have been on softer ground, this may not be ideal for him and the return to good ground will see further improvement in him this afternoon. First time in a handicap today should see him go close.
Usually I just write about single bets, but there is a Lucky 15 that I am confident of, these 4 are Cay Verde, Vow, Saddler's Rock and Grandeur.
Happy Punting
One last thing before we begin day three. Curlin had his first runner as a sire tonight at Kempton, Savanna La Mar. I was very impressed by how she handled all the preliminaries and didn't bat an eyelid to going in the stalls. Throughout the race she travelled powerfully and got into top gear a bit too late just being denied. She will be winning next time out over further.
On we go.
2:30 Ascot - Norfolk Stakes - Cay Verde - This one has already won for the blog when successful last time out at The Curragh in Ireland. In truth I have followed Mick Channon's colt since his first run when an encouraging fifth at Newbury, following up by routing a good field over course and distance. Windsor Castle winner Hototo was soundly behind in second that day. After winning pretty comfortably last time out, in my opinion all he needs to do is turn up to win this race today. Notable that Mick Channon has booked Craig Williams (jockey of Ortensia) to ride this afternoon. (NAP)
3:05 Ascot - Ribblesdale Stakes - Vow - Possibly a strange one in some people's opinions. But I have no doubt in my mind that if the Oaks was run on a flat course (like today) she would have come out on top. It was clear that she absolutely hated the track at Epsom when hanging down the camber all the way down the straight. The Fugue didn't get a clear run in her own right but handled the course a lot better than the selection today. William Haggas' filly is worth another try on this flat track. Princess Highway could be the biggest danger.
3:45 Ascot - Gold Cup - Saddler's Rock - One that I have fancied for some time now ever since beating Opinion Poll pretty easily in the Doncaster Cup last year. He has ran once since then and John Oxx had made it no secret that it was only to be a prep run for a crack at this race. That day he beat Unaccompanied by a length which was marginally longer than Fame and Glory beat her before that. He will be much more straight for that run and should take all the beating today.
4:25 Ascot - Britannia Stakes - Prince Alzain - A much improved performance last time at Epsom when 3rd to Laffan in a Handicap. He was staying on in very taking style over the 7 furlongs to be beaten just under 2 lengths, that was his first time in a handicap and the step up in trip will be in his favour. Before that he had been outclassed by Thought Worthy and Noble Mission, but handicapping looks where his near future lies. A real chance in a competitive race.
Trader Jack - One that isn't much of a price, but there is a perfectly good reason for that in a sense that he ran Grandeur (next race) to 2 and a quarter lengths from level weights. He is up 3 pounds from that day to a mark of 91 but that shouldn't be enough to prevent a good run today. Roger Charlton and James Doyle have got off to a flyer this season and it would be no surprise if this one were to pop up today.
5:00 Ascot - Tercentenary Stakes - Grandeur - One that I am still adamant will make up into a group performer, he ran very well last time at Epsom when not really handling the course. He was still an unlucky loser that day behind Wrotham Heath, who he should reverse placings with today. Usually William Buick rides this one for Jeremy Noseda, he is retained by John Gosden today but I suppose Frankie Dettori isn't the worst replacement in the world. 7/1 is available in a few places tonight, which is far too big a price, wont be out of the places and should win. (NB)
5:35 Ascot - King George V Stakes - Prussian - She won a strong handicap last time out at Redcar, She is raised 3 pounds for that effort which shouldn't take too much of a toll on her. She was the first one off the bridle that day and didn't get going for a while, she took every yard of the trip to really get going in to full stride. She steps up in trip as a result of that today and despite not being the first string for Sheikh Hamdan she should go close.
Uriah Heep - Disappointing at Chester last time out but he didn't handle the track, before that he was a head behind Minimise Risk who went on to run a decent enough race in the Derby. His last two runs have been on softer ground, this may not be ideal for him and the return to good ground will see further improvement in him this afternoon. First time in a handicap today should see him go close.
Usually I just write about single bets, but there is a Lucky 15 that I am confident of, these 4 are Cay Verde, Vow, Saddler's Rock and Grandeur.
Happy Punting
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Royal Ascot Day Two
Frankel was simply awesome, have you ever seen anything like that demolition job? Then for Sir Henry Cecil to say he was still improving is just a scary thought. It looked as if Excelebration's saddle slipped a little bit, however that only partly explains why he was being caught by Side Glance and in no way takes anything away from Frankel's performance.
The blog yesterday was fairly successful with Gregorian getting third at 16/1 and ending on a high with Hototo winning at 14/1 in the last. Today will be a bit different as I am seeking to win the Placepot at Ascot, but they are still individual selections.
2:30 Ascot - Jersey Stakes - Boomerang Bob - finished a length behind Caspar Netscher two runs ago over this distance before going on to finish 10th in the Guineas. Last time out he was dropped in trip to today's trip when running a stellar race against his elders behind Smarty Socks. If reproducing his best form then he will take all the beating today, even in this race full of class. A real chance.
Talwar - Possibly viewed as a bit of a dodgy one, but he is dropped back in trip today to what looks to be his optimum distance. Last time he was fancied to run a big race in the Guineas against Camelot but went off too fast and never looked the winner. That part of the race is what I'm interested in as he set some really smart sectionals early on. I'm not saying he is one to expect a win from, but could well land a place at a very jazzy price.
3:05 Ascot - Windsor Forest Stakes - Chachamaidee - She looked like a different horse last time out at Lingfield when sprouting wings to come from last to first down the home straight. She also gets weight from the top two in the market today which should see her come out on top. She finished second in the race last year but looks like a much better horse this season and has been aimed at this race once again. Probably the best bet of the day.
3:45 Ascot - Prince Of Wales Stakes - Carlton House - I have never been this one's biggest fan however last time in the Brigadier Gerard he really impressed me after a break. For that reason he gets the nod against So You Think today after the latter hasn't won here in two attempts. It would appear that 10 furlongs is his best trip, which he is also unbeaten at, his two notable defeats have come over 1 mile 4 furlongs. Still a lightly raced horse and could be more to come.
Sri Putra (not placepot) - An admirable horse that always runs his race and finally landed a big race when winning at Kempton when having Side Glance 2 lengths behind him. Last time out in Turkey things didn't go to plan and he couldn't get competitive. This race today will be much more to his liking and could just sneak third at the end of the day.
4:25 Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup - Belgian Bill - Coming back from a break but has been laid out for the race and has been dropped in the weights since last time when losing out by a nose at Wolverhampton. Market support will be notable for this one. Back in January he ran a blinder at Meydan to come second to Songcraft. Last time out he ran off a mark of 102 when running well, today he runs off of a mark of 99 which is a huge bonus for today. Another tick in his favour is the fact that he always goes well fresh.
Arabian Star - He has really come into his own throughout the last year including winning two big Newmarket handicap. As a result is 4 pounds higher last time but that shouldn't hold him back. He is one of a select few in this race who could go a bit further and lake a small group race. David Probert does the low weight today which is also a bonus in this kind of race, he also stays further than this which is almost a necessity in the Hunt cup.
5:05 Ascot - Queen Mary Stakes - Jubilee Diamond - One horse I have been waiting to reappear for a while now since his first and only run at Sandown when I was there. A bit was expected of him that night but it was clear he wasn't fully wound up when swishing his tail throughout the race. Upward Spiral beat him that day and I fully expect the two places to be reversed. You can bet your last penny that Richard Hannon will have him ready to go tomorrow and should take all the beating.
5:35 Ascot - Sandringham Handicap - Hello Glory - Made an encouraging reappearance at York behind the improving Laugh out loud and is better off at the weights with electrelane. She will strip fitter for the experience and should go close today. Her best performance came when behind Lightening Pearl at Newmarket in a group one, a reproduction of the will surely put her on top at the end of the day.
One last thing before I wrap up today's blog I would just like to reflect on the tragedy of day one where The Nile went badly wrong turning for home and had to be destroyed.
Happy Punting
The blog yesterday was fairly successful with Gregorian getting third at 16/1 and ending on a high with Hototo winning at 14/1 in the last. Today will be a bit different as I am seeking to win the Placepot at Ascot, but they are still individual selections.
2:30 Ascot - Jersey Stakes - Boomerang Bob - finished a length behind Caspar Netscher two runs ago over this distance before going on to finish 10th in the Guineas. Last time out he was dropped in trip to today's trip when running a stellar race against his elders behind Smarty Socks. If reproducing his best form then he will take all the beating today, even in this race full of class. A real chance.
Talwar - Possibly viewed as a bit of a dodgy one, but he is dropped back in trip today to what looks to be his optimum distance. Last time he was fancied to run a big race in the Guineas against Camelot but went off too fast and never looked the winner. That part of the race is what I'm interested in as he set some really smart sectionals early on. I'm not saying he is one to expect a win from, but could well land a place at a very jazzy price.
3:05 Ascot - Windsor Forest Stakes - Chachamaidee - She looked like a different horse last time out at Lingfield when sprouting wings to come from last to first down the home straight. She also gets weight from the top two in the market today which should see her come out on top. She finished second in the race last year but looks like a much better horse this season and has been aimed at this race once again. Probably the best bet of the day.
3:45 Ascot - Prince Of Wales Stakes - Carlton House - I have never been this one's biggest fan however last time in the Brigadier Gerard he really impressed me after a break. For that reason he gets the nod against So You Think today after the latter hasn't won here in two attempts. It would appear that 10 furlongs is his best trip, which he is also unbeaten at, his two notable defeats have come over 1 mile 4 furlongs. Still a lightly raced horse and could be more to come.
Sri Putra (not placepot) - An admirable horse that always runs his race and finally landed a big race when winning at Kempton when having Side Glance 2 lengths behind him. Last time out in Turkey things didn't go to plan and he couldn't get competitive. This race today will be much more to his liking and could just sneak third at the end of the day.
4:25 Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup - Belgian Bill - Coming back from a break but has been laid out for the race and has been dropped in the weights since last time when losing out by a nose at Wolverhampton. Market support will be notable for this one. Back in January he ran a blinder at Meydan to come second to Songcraft. Last time out he ran off a mark of 102 when running well, today he runs off of a mark of 99 which is a huge bonus for today. Another tick in his favour is the fact that he always goes well fresh.
Arabian Star - He has really come into his own throughout the last year including winning two big Newmarket handicap. As a result is 4 pounds higher last time but that shouldn't hold him back. He is one of a select few in this race who could go a bit further and lake a small group race. David Probert does the low weight today which is also a bonus in this kind of race, he also stays further than this which is almost a necessity in the Hunt cup.
5:05 Ascot - Queen Mary Stakes - Jubilee Diamond - One horse I have been waiting to reappear for a while now since his first and only run at Sandown when I was there. A bit was expected of him that night but it was clear he wasn't fully wound up when swishing his tail throughout the race. Upward Spiral beat him that day and I fully expect the two places to be reversed. You can bet your last penny that Richard Hannon will have him ready to go tomorrow and should take all the beating.
5:35 Ascot - Sandringham Handicap - Hello Glory - Made an encouraging reappearance at York behind the improving Laugh out loud and is better off at the weights with electrelane. She will strip fitter for the experience and should go close today. Her best performance came when behind Lightening Pearl at Newmarket in a group one, a reproduction of the will surely put her on top at the end of the day.
One last thing before I wrap up today's blog I would just like to reflect on the tragedy of day one where The Nile went badly wrong turning for home and had to be destroyed.
Happy Punting
Monday, 18 June 2012
Royal Ascot Day One
The Cheltenham Festival of the flat is finally here and the week is off to a flyer with the Worlds best racehorse running in the first race of the day. Of course I speak about the awesome Frankel who looks to have a penalty kick in the first.
2:30 Ascot - Queen Anne Stakes - Worthadd - Its not worth taking on Frankel today as it doesn't seem possible to get him beat. Sir Mark Prescott's colt could well be the each way value today however. He was beaten by Side Glance last time out at Epsom who I put up in the blog. It was clear nothing went right for him that day, he hated the course and the ground was probably a little too quick. Frankie takes the ride today and that has to be seen as nothing but a positive. Available at 40/1 tonight
3:05 Ascot - King's Stand - Bated Breath - Arguably England's best sprinter around at the moment after a fantastic performance at Haydock in the Temple Stakes on his reappearance. This was chosen as his more favoured route rather than taking on Black Caviar. Obviously the Kings Stand is a much more open contest rather than the Diamond Jubilee. He had a lot of the field today behind him at Haydock and could well improve again for the run. Before his last run you would argue that his ideal distance was 6 furlongs but today will be fine for him.
Masamah - There is a lot of potential each way bets in this race as always, but Kevin Ryan's first string looks the best value in my opinion. He ran very much like he needed the run last time at Haydock behind today's main selection. He will strip much fitter for that experience and the 40/1 being offered tonight looks like good value. He should be there at the end as long as everything goes well during the race.
3:45 Ascot - St. James's Palace Stakes - Gregorian - One that I have been waiting for, for some time now, He didn't handle the track at Chantilly last time at all coming very wide round the home bend. That run is easily forgiven and this track will be more to his liking today. I took 25s a couple of days ago and is now into 14/1 despite not being the choice of William Buick (The Nile). He will be needing every yard of the race today and he should be getting a fast enough pace which will suit him down to the ground. A good price.
4:25 Ascot - Coventry Stakes - Sir Prancealot - He looked absolutely awesome when winning the National Stakes at Sandown when overcoming a very troubled run to score with the minimum of fuss. Since then Richard Hughes has been expressing his excitement about him. Though it is a strong race this year he looks by far the best of those in the field and a straightforward run will see him go very close. 4/1 was around earlier but is now into 7/2 and the first shows of 3/1 are coming through.
5:00 Ascot - Ascot Stakes - Cosimo De Medici - One that has come in for some support tonight and is a very straightforward horse. He can run well on any going and is capable of fitting into any running style, Darryl Holland should suit this horse nicely and a recent Goodwood run should have blown away any cobwebs. He has never made an appearance at a meeting of this standard but he should be more than capable of making his presence felt.
5:35 Ascot - Windsor Castle Stakes - Hototo - In a recent interview with Attheraces Phillip Makin outlined this one as one of his best chances of the week. Kevin Ryan's Colt has improved with every run but by far his stand out performance is the one over course and distance behind Cay Verde on Soft ground. Everything about him points to a big run today after getting his head in front at the third time of asking last time out at Ayr. Huge chance, generally 16/1 but some 18s left tonight
Lets hope for a big first day of Royal Ascot to set us up nicely for the rest of the week
Happy Punting
2:30 Ascot - Queen Anne Stakes - Worthadd - Its not worth taking on Frankel today as it doesn't seem possible to get him beat. Sir Mark Prescott's colt could well be the each way value today however. He was beaten by Side Glance last time out at Epsom who I put up in the blog. It was clear nothing went right for him that day, he hated the course and the ground was probably a little too quick. Frankie takes the ride today and that has to be seen as nothing but a positive. Available at 40/1 tonight
3:05 Ascot - King's Stand - Bated Breath - Arguably England's best sprinter around at the moment after a fantastic performance at Haydock in the Temple Stakes on his reappearance. This was chosen as his more favoured route rather than taking on Black Caviar. Obviously the Kings Stand is a much more open contest rather than the Diamond Jubilee. He had a lot of the field today behind him at Haydock and could well improve again for the run. Before his last run you would argue that his ideal distance was 6 furlongs but today will be fine for him.
Masamah - There is a lot of potential each way bets in this race as always, but Kevin Ryan's first string looks the best value in my opinion. He ran very much like he needed the run last time at Haydock behind today's main selection. He will strip much fitter for that experience and the 40/1 being offered tonight looks like good value. He should be there at the end as long as everything goes well during the race.
3:45 Ascot - St. James's Palace Stakes - Gregorian - One that I have been waiting for, for some time now, He didn't handle the track at Chantilly last time at all coming very wide round the home bend. That run is easily forgiven and this track will be more to his liking today. I took 25s a couple of days ago and is now into 14/1 despite not being the choice of William Buick (The Nile). He will be needing every yard of the race today and he should be getting a fast enough pace which will suit him down to the ground. A good price.
4:25 Ascot - Coventry Stakes - Sir Prancealot - He looked absolutely awesome when winning the National Stakes at Sandown when overcoming a very troubled run to score with the minimum of fuss. Since then Richard Hughes has been expressing his excitement about him. Though it is a strong race this year he looks by far the best of those in the field and a straightforward run will see him go very close. 4/1 was around earlier but is now into 7/2 and the first shows of 3/1 are coming through.
5:00 Ascot - Ascot Stakes - Cosimo De Medici - One that has come in for some support tonight and is a very straightforward horse. He can run well on any going and is capable of fitting into any running style, Darryl Holland should suit this horse nicely and a recent Goodwood run should have blown away any cobwebs. He has never made an appearance at a meeting of this standard but he should be more than capable of making his presence felt.
5:35 Ascot - Windsor Castle Stakes - Hototo - In a recent interview with Attheraces Phillip Makin outlined this one as one of his best chances of the week. Kevin Ryan's Colt has improved with every run but by far his stand out performance is the one over course and distance behind Cay Verde on Soft ground. Everything about him points to a big run today after getting his head in front at the third time of asking last time out at Ayr. Huge chance, generally 16/1 but some 18s left tonight
Lets hope for a big first day of Royal Ascot to set us up nicely for the rest of the week
Happy Punting
Friday, 15 June 2012
Ascot is on the horizon
A pretty good week by all accounts last week, one winner and 3 other places at nice enough prices. But the poorer quality racing continues this week ahead of Royal Ascot with handicaps looking the order of the day all round.
As I'm sure everybody knows, Black Caviar is here and is reportedly well ahead of her crack at the Diamond Jubilee. She is around a 2/5 favourite now and it looks as if the value has gone, personally I like Bated Breath each way still available at around 10/1. But onto the racing today.
2:50 Sandown - Sam Sharp - Second the last two times, each by under a length. I was there for his Sandown defeat to todays rival Weapon of Choice, he looked to have his measure but for idling in the final strides. He was probably lacking in the fitness department from the winner as it was his first run since December. Only raised a pound for his last two efforts and coming out just better on the ratings over Weapon of Choice, he can finally get his head in front. Disappointing if out of the places.
3:45 York - Doncaster Rover - Steps up to a mile for the first time today which for me is nothing but a positive. He goes on any ground so getting his toe in here shouldn't phase him in the slightest, neither will the course as he is a winner round here and seems to enjoy it. He usually gets the definition of running on late over 7 furlongs. With that in mind a mile should be right up his street with others in the field looking a touch out of form. The danger could well be Ptolemaic getting heaps of weight from his elders.
4:20 Bath - Selinda - Backing Mick Channon's charge blind right now isn't a bad idea and this one looks to be his best bet of the day. She ran well on her return to come fourth at Ayr when probably needing the run and will strip much fitter for that experience. She is a winner of two races (both at Yarmouth) on fast ground and todays ground will be fine for her. Matthew Davies takes the ride today and has been riding a few winners for this stable as of late. This could be another one.
5:30 Sandown - Bolivia - At face value this one seems an odd selection, but delve a bit deeper and you will discover her a bit more. She has been out of her depth running in class ones the whole time and if memory serves me right she had an entry at Royal Ascot last year for a long time. Today is a class four and will be much more to her standard. In the bigger races she has been running well behind horses such as Barbican (beaten 12 lengths) and if repeating that form she is sure to go close. Today is the lowest mark she has run off of but also the longest distance she has run over, which is no negative. Could well go close.
8:15 Leicester - Red Inca - Brian Ellison will be praying that the meeting today passes the 7am inspection as Red Inca will love the ground today. He first caught my eye over hurdles at Musselburgh staying on over 2 miles, he won next time out and went on to run a blinder at Sandown in a hot handicap behind Lexi's boy. He was right up there till just after two from home when the stamina gauge emptied. He was well looked after by Felix De Giles that day and has since ran a good 5th at Beverley on ground probably too fast for him. There was a runaway winner that day and the form is better than the numbers say. Should improve this time.
Hopefully this gives us a few pennies for Royal Ascot next week, I'll be back on Tuesday when we will be hoping Frankel can supply us with another mesmerizing performance.
Happy Punting as always
Friday, 8 June 2012
Saturday 9th June
We shall start of this week by saying welcome to England Black Caviar who arrived in her Newmarket stable on Thursday night. She wont be taking on Frankel but hopefully she leaves a lasting impression just like her fellow Australians Phar Lap, Choisir and Scenic Blast.
Chilworth Icon was the only winner last week with Grandeur and unlucky second, he didn't handle the track at Epsom but still ran a blinder. I'm still confident into him making it into a Group horse on more straightforward tracks and remains a progressive type.
As for today, the racing isn't exactly full of world beaters. It would seem that this is the calm before the storm regarding Royal Ascot. But still selections must be made and there are decent enough National Hunt meetings at both Worcester and Hexham. Both courses seem to have escaped the worst of the weather if you look at their going descriptions. On we go.
2:10 Worcester - The Boss - Has a first run for new owners today after running a decent enough race at Wincanton last time. He jumped left handed that day, there will be no problems with that today due to the left handed course. He has run well in some good races before and this one looks to be particularly weak. He runs off a career low mark, 4 pounds lower than his only winning mark. He will need every yard of the 2 miles here today and should be able to outstay his rivals at a track very dependent on staying power. Hails from a yard in a very good form.
2:20 Newmarket - Zakreet - Now back down to a winning mark, but more importantly he is a confirmed mudlark. He probably just failed to get home last time at Nottingham but is sensibly dropped in trip today. Kevin Ryan has been firing in winners early this season, and this one has already ran well off higher marks. Julie Burke takes off an invaluable 3 pounds tomorrow from an already low weight and in effect runs from a mark of 96. Expect a big run.
3:00 Hexham - Cloudy Dawn - Usually runs well after a break and is a progressive chaser from the Sue Smith yard. She does particularly well with her horses this time of year and it would seem that this one has been saved for this part of the season. He ran into a very well handicapped horse last time out and was a good way clear of the third. A reproduction of that form should be good enough to take this race today from bottom weight. His last win was from a 4 pounds lower mark but has since turned in very respectable efforts. His only win was over course and distance which he returns to today.
3:45 Doncaster - Tariq Too - Ground will be almost spot on today after last time possibly being too soft at Ascot when the meeting was almost abandoned. He showed up well for a long way that day and a furlong and a half out looked the winner before being swamped from all sides to finish ninth, but only beaten just under 5 lengths. Harry Bentley takes of a valuable 3 pounds will in this race could just help decide the outcome. Shouldn't be too far away and i'd find it hard to believe he will be out of the places.
5:00 Worcester - Harry Tricker- In all seriousness it was a hard choice between him and Saticon. He hasn't won since November 2010 and hasn't won over hurdles since November of 09. He was last seen 209 days ago when beating only three home in the Greatwood hurdle behind Brampour at Cheltenham. He has been outpaced over 2 miles in every run this season hence the step up in trip to 2 and a half miles which should definitely be a tick for the positive column. If you go back in his career he has some really smart form, most notably when second to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood. That was off the same mark as today and if he reproduces that run he will win doing handstands. He is a hard horse to predict though.
5:15 Hexham - Little London - Probably the dodgiest selection today in a sense that he is yet to even see a racecourse, he is from the same bloodline as Champion Hurdle winner Alderbrook. The only other positive I can think of is that Sue Smith does very well with her first time runners. She also has a very good record with all of her bumper horses. Should be in the places.
Hopefully there are a few winners today. Happy Punting.
Chilworth Icon was the only winner last week with Grandeur and unlucky second, he didn't handle the track at Epsom but still ran a blinder. I'm still confident into him making it into a Group horse on more straightforward tracks and remains a progressive type.
As for today, the racing isn't exactly full of world beaters. It would seem that this is the calm before the storm regarding Royal Ascot. But still selections must be made and there are decent enough National Hunt meetings at both Worcester and Hexham. Both courses seem to have escaped the worst of the weather if you look at their going descriptions. On we go.
2:10 Worcester - The Boss - Has a first run for new owners today after running a decent enough race at Wincanton last time. He jumped left handed that day, there will be no problems with that today due to the left handed course. He has run well in some good races before and this one looks to be particularly weak. He runs off a career low mark, 4 pounds lower than his only winning mark. He will need every yard of the 2 miles here today and should be able to outstay his rivals at a track very dependent on staying power. Hails from a yard in a very good form.
2:20 Newmarket - Zakreet - Now back down to a winning mark, but more importantly he is a confirmed mudlark. He probably just failed to get home last time at Nottingham but is sensibly dropped in trip today. Kevin Ryan has been firing in winners early this season, and this one has already ran well off higher marks. Julie Burke takes off an invaluable 3 pounds tomorrow from an already low weight and in effect runs from a mark of 96. Expect a big run.
3:00 Hexham - Cloudy Dawn - Usually runs well after a break and is a progressive chaser from the Sue Smith yard. She does particularly well with her horses this time of year and it would seem that this one has been saved for this part of the season. He ran into a very well handicapped horse last time out and was a good way clear of the third. A reproduction of that form should be good enough to take this race today from bottom weight. His last win was from a 4 pounds lower mark but has since turned in very respectable efforts. His only win was over course and distance which he returns to today.
3:45 Doncaster - Tariq Too - Ground will be almost spot on today after last time possibly being too soft at Ascot when the meeting was almost abandoned. He showed up well for a long way that day and a furlong and a half out looked the winner before being swamped from all sides to finish ninth, but only beaten just under 5 lengths. Harry Bentley takes of a valuable 3 pounds will in this race could just help decide the outcome. Shouldn't be too far away and i'd find it hard to believe he will be out of the places.
5:00 Worcester - Harry Tricker- In all seriousness it was a hard choice between him and Saticon. He hasn't won since November 2010 and hasn't won over hurdles since November of 09. He was last seen 209 days ago when beating only three home in the Greatwood hurdle behind Brampour at Cheltenham. He has been outpaced over 2 miles in every run this season hence the step up in trip to 2 and a half miles which should definitely be a tick for the positive column. If you go back in his career he has some really smart form, most notably when second to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood. That was off the same mark as today and if he reproduces that run he will win doing handstands. He is a hard horse to predict though.
5:15 Hexham - Little London - Probably the dodgiest selection today in a sense that he is yet to even see a racecourse, he is from the same bloodline as Champion Hurdle winner Alderbrook. The only other positive I can think of is that Sue Smith does very well with her first time runners. She also has a very good record with all of her bumper horses. Should be in the places.
Hopefully there are a few winners today. Happy Punting.
Friday, 1 June 2012
Epsom Derby Day
'Was' won the Oaks yesterday for Aidan O'Brien and Seamie Heffernan, but I have no doubt on that if the race was re-run on a flat track she wouldnt have won. That said she did win the oaks and must be respected for it. Vow, The Fugue and Maybe all hated the track and William Buick's mount was luckless in running when caught on heels numerous times. Vow hung down the camber the whole time down the home straight and should be better next time out.
As for the selections yesterday, it was nice to get a good priced double 42/1 in with Side Glance and Highland Knight. Personally for me it was great to see Side Glance winning as it is one I have been following for some time now. Highland Knight ran exactly the race I expected him to and looks one to stick with for the season after being so game in the finish.
Onto today and some strong selections for Derby Day.
1:35 - Epsom - Grandeur - He won at Goodwood last week in very good style going away to win by 2 and a quarter lengths. A slight step up in trip today but that will be no bother at all and the 4/1 price right now seems very overpriced. He has shown a love for fast ground and more importantly a distinct love for undulating tracks, he has won at Goodwood and at Brighton. The latter being one of the most demanding tracks in the world, let alone in England. He has been raised 8 pounds for his win last time out, but that shouldn't be too much of a burden after the style of his last win. One final point is that you must take note whenever William Buick rides for Jeremy Noseda, Mr Buick is in particularly good form as of late also.
2:05 - Epsom - Chilworth Icon - One thing is for sure in this 6 furlong race, that there will be a lot of pace on the cards today. Mick Channon's Colt just gets the vote here in a very hot contest. His one race on the turf resulted in a win, in good style at that. He ran a blinder last time out on the fibresand at Kempton behind Lyric Ace who is expected to rise to the very top level. The selection is also entered into a listed contest at Naas on Monday. The order of the day yesterday seemed to be front runners (except gatewood), in his only win he did it from the front but will need to be better out of the stalls today. Like I say this is a very tight race and Chilworth Icon was only just the selection ahead of liber. Mick Channon's yard are in fine form just now and Martin Harley is on a high after riding his first classic winner aboard Samitar.
2:40 - Epsom - Masked Marvel - He clearly needed the run first time up on very unfavourable ground at Newmarket. This will be more of a stamina test today which will be firmly in the John Gosden trained colts favour after last time it turned into a bit of a dash. Since his victory in the St. Leger last year he has been defeated twice but his entry in the Arc was never a good idea and he finished dead last. Robin Hood will be cutting out the early pace in an attempt to set it up for St. Nicholas Abbey who comes with his troubles. If he has an off day I fully expect the selection to take advantage of that. Just a silly thought that I am willing to be jeered for is the suggestion that Robin Hood could stick around long enough for a place, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world to see him steal it and win from the front. Worth a speculative 50p each way, most probably a better horse than his rating suggests of 97. (line up to laugh at me)
3:15 - Epsom - Judge 'N Jury - He won for me last time out at York when doing it all from the front and holding off stable mate Secret Witness. He seemed to have a lot in hand over the rest of the field as nothing but the runner up was really closing on him. I have already stressed the importance of a front runner on this course from yesterday's form. He would have a 4 pound penalty to carry but the very talented Darren Edward Egan takes off that penalty and an extra pound. He has ridden this horse twice and is yet to be unplaced aboard him finishing 2nd and 1st. His first run this year was completely against him in a sense that the ground was bottomless and his fitness gave out. He only has one run to his name at this course and he showed a liking for it when finishing 4th (denied third on the line). Should be thereabouts again.
4:00 - Epsom - Cavaleiro - Admittedly a bit of a speculative shout but really the others are only playing for place claims behind Camelot in my opinion. Marcus Tregoning's colt is one of the most experienced in the race but is still the lowest rated in the field as well. Hayley Turner also has her first ride in the Derby and is only the 2nd female rider in the Derby ever. He stayed on pretty well in the Derby trial at Lingfield but Main Sequence and Shantaram had already flown and he was looked after from then on in. He won a competitive race at Newbury in very game fashion at Newbury last year and he will come on a bundle for the run at Lingfield. Putting my neck on the line a bit with this next remark. Bonfire and Main Sequence will not place. A simple reason for the first mentioned in that he is a live wire and the atmosphere will most probably get to him tomorrow. As for the latter, he is unbeaten and has beaten the selection already today, but id have doubts about him handling the course too well.
4:50 - Epsom - Oceanway - A horse that never seems to stop running and is as tough as they come. He has been waiting for the faster ground this year which he finally gets today, one bonus from the fact he has been on unfavourable going is he is now at a winable mark. His last run was off a mark of 93 and today runs off of 91 which puts him right into the mix. Silvestre De Sousa is a notable jockey booking for his ex boss and Oceanway is taken to return to winning ways today.
lets hope to carry on the good form into today with some more winners. Happy Punting
As for the selections yesterday, it was nice to get a good priced double 42/1 in with Side Glance and Highland Knight. Personally for me it was great to see Side Glance winning as it is one I have been following for some time now. Highland Knight ran exactly the race I expected him to and looks one to stick with for the season after being so game in the finish.
Onto today and some strong selections for Derby Day.
1:35 - Epsom - Grandeur - He won at Goodwood last week in very good style going away to win by 2 and a quarter lengths. A slight step up in trip today but that will be no bother at all and the 4/1 price right now seems very overpriced. He has shown a love for fast ground and more importantly a distinct love for undulating tracks, he has won at Goodwood and at Brighton. The latter being one of the most demanding tracks in the world, let alone in England. He has been raised 8 pounds for his win last time out, but that shouldn't be too much of a burden after the style of his last win. One final point is that you must take note whenever William Buick rides for Jeremy Noseda, Mr Buick is in particularly good form as of late also.
2:05 - Epsom - Chilworth Icon - One thing is for sure in this 6 furlong race, that there will be a lot of pace on the cards today. Mick Channon's Colt just gets the vote here in a very hot contest. His one race on the turf resulted in a win, in good style at that. He ran a blinder last time out on the fibresand at Kempton behind Lyric Ace who is expected to rise to the very top level. The selection is also entered into a listed contest at Naas on Monday. The order of the day yesterday seemed to be front runners (except gatewood), in his only win he did it from the front but will need to be better out of the stalls today. Like I say this is a very tight race and Chilworth Icon was only just the selection ahead of liber. Mick Channon's yard are in fine form just now and Martin Harley is on a high after riding his first classic winner aboard Samitar.
2:40 - Epsom - Masked Marvel - He clearly needed the run first time up on very unfavourable ground at Newmarket. This will be more of a stamina test today which will be firmly in the John Gosden trained colts favour after last time it turned into a bit of a dash. Since his victory in the St. Leger last year he has been defeated twice but his entry in the Arc was never a good idea and he finished dead last. Robin Hood will be cutting out the early pace in an attempt to set it up for St. Nicholas Abbey who comes with his troubles. If he has an off day I fully expect the selection to take advantage of that. Just a silly thought that I am willing to be jeered for is the suggestion that Robin Hood could stick around long enough for a place, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world to see him steal it and win from the front. Worth a speculative 50p each way, most probably a better horse than his rating suggests of 97. (line up to laugh at me)
3:15 - Epsom - Judge 'N Jury - He won for me last time out at York when doing it all from the front and holding off stable mate Secret Witness. He seemed to have a lot in hand over the rest of the field as nothing but the runner up was really closing on him. I have already stressed the importance of a front runner on this course from yesterday's form. He would have a 4 pound penalty to carry but the very talented Darren Edward Egan takes off that penalty and an extra pound. He has ridden this horse twice and is yet to be unplaced aboard him finishing 2nd and 1st. His first run this year was completely against him in a sense that the ground was bottomless and his fitness gave out. He only has one run to his name at this course and he showed a liking for it when finishing 4th (denied third on the line). Should be thereabouts again.
4:00 - Epsom - Cavaleiro - Admittedly a bit of a speculative shout but really the others are only playing for place claims behind Camelot in my opinion. Marcus Tregoning's colt is one of the most experienced in the race but is still the lowest rated in the field as well. Hayley Turner also has her first ride in the Derby and is only the 2nd female rider in the Derby ever. He stayed on pretty well in the Derby trial at Lingfield but Main Sequence and Shantaram had already flown and he was looked after from then on in. He won a competitive race at Newbury in very game fashion at Newbury last year and he will come on a bundle for the run at Lingfield. Putting my neck on the line a bit with this next remark. Bonfire and Main Sequence will not place. A simple reason for the first mentioned in that he is a live wire and the atmosphere will most probably get to him tomorrow. As for the latter, he is unbeaten and has beaten the selection already today, but id have doubts about him handling the course too well.
4:50 - Epsom - Oceanway - A horse that never seems to stop running and is as tough as they come. He has been waiting for the faster ground this year which he finally gets today, one bonus from the fact he has been on unfavourable going is he is now at a winable mark. His last run was off a mark of 93 and today runs off of 91 which puts him right into the mix. Silvestre De Sousa is a notable jockey booking for his ex boss and Oceanway is taken to return to winning ways today.
lets hope to carry on the good form into today with some more winners. Happy Punting
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