Well yesterday was about as bad as it gets, the closest we had was Duke of Navan who just failed to place. I must confess something though, i switched from Coffee to Buck Magic in the conditional jockeys hurdle. Apologies for the change of heart.
Today promises to be a great day of racing with a top class renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, featuring the likes of, Hunt Ball, Walkon and of course Grand Crus. Lets crack on.
12:45 Cheltenham - Far West
Mcvicar was a high class flat recruit to the Alan King yard and is two from two over timber. Today however he must give 4 pounds to leading triumph hurdle hope Far West. The selection was a very easy winner at Chepstow on his first run in this country, in the process beating another useful Alan King horse in Handazan. He has since won at Aintree in a race which the form is working out very nicely (3rd and 4th have been first and second). In the past two years Paul Nicholls has won this with the high class Sam Winner in 2010 and last year with Hinterland, Far West looks set to follow in their shoes today. 7/4 is on offer at the moment and that could prove a good price. One to watch out for at a price is Mick Channon's, Foster's Road after getting his head in front over hurdles at Fakenham, and then on the flat at Wolverhampton the last twice.
1:20 Cheltenham - Our Father
He was a huge gamble when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last year in taking style, it appeared after then that the world was at his feet before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. In truth however it has always looked as if he was a ready made chaser, and its eye catching that David Pipe introduces him here at such a high level first time. The two main rivals in the betting should be hard to beat, but both under penalties and giving Our Father weight he should be tough to beat. A big shout to the double David Pipe had yesterday which could mean a return to form for the yard.
1:55 Cheltenham - Poker De Sivola
He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown off todays mark and Ferdy Murphy always has been a little... Let's say shrewd. But onto the form side, he turned in a disappointing effort at Newcastle first time out, he was hampered that day though and was looked after. Robert Thornton gets the leg up which is a fairly unusual jockey booking by Murphy as he is rarely used, but Poker De Sivola seems to get on with any jockey aboard him. You may remember his supreme staying performance to win the National Hunt Chase here at the festival a couple of years back. Other wins at Sandown and Hexham show his liking for undulating courses, he gets a tentative each way vote today at 25/1
Unfortuanately he is a non runner, replace him with David Pipe's Ashkazar
2:35 Cheltenham - Triolo D'alene
The Nicky Henderson representative looked an exciting French import after beating Ackertac first time at Ascot before disappointing at Cheltenham. His jumping never stood him in good health that day, but a promising reappearance at Market Rasen reinstalls confidence. The form from that race is working out quite nicely with winners and placed horses in behind next time out. He looked as if he needed that opener badly when tiring two from home and proving no match for Zitenka. Possibly the biggest eye catcher is that Barry Geraghty has starved himself down to 10-1 to take the ride today, he had the choice of good handicapper Tanks For That (non runner) but kept the faith with Triolo D'alene.
I have heard glowing reports from Tom Cooper's yard about 2009 Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer who hasnt won since his festival success. He has however been very consistent without getting his day in the sun, if anywhere back to his best he will be a serious threat to all rivals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride.
One more to keep an eye out for is Ex festival winner Finger onthe Pulse who ran brilliantly here last time (behind Nadiya De La Vega) to come third, 40/1 looks too big. Positive that top Amateur Maurice Linehan gets on very well with him.
3:05 Cheltenham - Abnaki
Jonjo's representative made a pleasing reappearance at Aintree behind fast improving Ely Brown, that was his first run since winning here at glamourous odds. If that run has had the desired affect and blown away the cobwebs, he could well upset a few major players today off a fly weight with Maurice Linehan taking off 7 pounds. One worry is that the stable are a bit hit and miss right now, but a positive is that Coffee ran a good race yesterday in a messy conditional jockeys hurdle. Not one to put your mortgage on but should go well.
Market support for ex top novice Bouggler would be interesting on his return from injury, he could potentially make his mark look silly.
3:40 Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery
He is a typical David Pipe improver whom i have been watching from the start of his career. Before his Stratford victory he had been behind some big names from leading stables, firstly at Hereford he fell behind Tour D'argent, then at Newbury he was behind Montbazon, Vulcanite and All the Aces. He is open to more improvement and past performances would suggest he isn't a 112 rated performer and shouldn't be for much longer. Today could be a great day for the Pipe Yard.
Definitely wouldnt put you off of a David Pipe lucky 31 today, some real solid chances across the card.
Our Father
Problema Tic (narrowly preferred to Ashkazar, both leading chances)
Grand Crus
Goulanes
Tanerko Emery
As always Happy Punting and here is for a better day than yesterday, it couldnt get much worse!
Showing posts with label hunt ball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hunt ball. Show all posts
Friday, 16 November 2012
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Day 1 Aintree Festival
Aintree is here after what has seemed an eternity since Cheltenham, and a fairly decent card to start of the Grand National meeting as well. I was glad last night that i chose to stay up to watch the Stanley Cup playoffs especially going to bed when it was light outside after my Vancouver Canucks lost the first game 4-2. But hey 6 more games to go and id still fancy our chances of going through.
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
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