Good evening/morning everyone, I hope we have fully recovered from the festive period now and are ready to kick 2015 off with a bang. We did that last week with two winners in the shape of Fairy Rath and Mr Mole who started off the year well for us, it looks harder this week but we shall give it a go as always.
@OnTheOtherHoof have a video preview prepared for you guys as we look ahead to the Channel 4 action from Kempton and Warwick. Joining me on the panel this week are the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121 and @Calummadell who both give their best bets of the day. Hope you can join us via the link below, enjoy!
Lanzarote Hurdle and Classic Chase Day
Now onto the all important selections!
2:40 Kempton - Dell Arca
We start off with one of the day's feature races in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, which was won last year by the progressive Saphir Du Rheu. Dell Arca may not fall into the progressive category after failing to sparkle over fences, but he showed that the ability is still there in a Grade One at Ascot last time out.
I have to admit, Dell Arca has never really been a horse that I have warmed to despite featuring heavily in many top handicap hurdles. Those include a second to Splash Of Ginge in last year's Betfair Hurdle before a good fifth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. He failed to win in two attempts over fences and despite pushing the Grade One winning Coneygree to a length and a half he reverted to hurdles last time out. That came in the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle which also included his first attempt at a trip in excess of two miles and five furlongs. He quite clearly didn't stay that day and probably lacked a bit of class against Reve De Sivola and Zarkandar, but ran with great promise. Turning for home he was sat in a share of fourth and began to make his move while still travelling strongly, but his stamina gave out before the second last. Tom Scudamore was sensible on him after that and just nursed him home under a hands and heels ride, but he entered the notebook and the handicapper has left him on a mark of 145. That mark is four pounds higher than his effort when fifth in the Coral Cup and the softer ground should be no bother to him whatsoever. Dell Arca to add a Lanzarote Hurdle to his already impressive portfolio. (10/1)
3:15 Kempton - Via Sundown
You will remember Via Sundown featuring as part of the horses to follow list at the start of the season, but it hasn't exactly gone to plan so far. He landed a small novice hurdle at Exeter to start his year off but then put in a disappointing performance in the Hennessy when never really looking like landing a blow. The handicapper relented four pounds for that effort and he ran a far better race at Ascot last time out despite only finishing sixth.
He showed up well for a long way at Ascot and like Dell Arca was still travelling well when turning for home upsides with The Young Master. He benefited from first time cheek pieces that day and they remain on again today which should help him no end. Despite running well at Ascot he faded into sixth late in the race but as a result the handicapper has given him a chance and he finds himself four pounds lower in the handicap. Josh Moore has partnered him to all of his victories so far and he takes the ride once more this afternoon, he will need to brush up his jumping but can land his first race over fences this season. (10/1)
3:35 Warwick - West End Rocker
It has been four years since a 9 year old West End Rocker was victorious in this race and returns as an in form 13 year old. He faces a stiff task against his younger rivals but is also met with the burden of a mark of 139 which is two pounds higher than his highest winning mark. Tom Bellamy takes the ride once again which means he gets a valuable five pounds taken off his back and the two seemed to gel nicely at Lingfield last time out.
That was the perfect race for him to refind his form in as there were only three rivals for him to beat in a Veterans Chase, albeit against some classy horses though. He never really looked in trouble that day and jumped for fun, which is a crucial quality to have round Warwick as the fences come up thick and fast. The ground will also pose no issues for him whatsoever as he has three wins to his name on heavy ground including this race and the Becher Chase. With Tom Bellamy's claim taken into account he is only a pound higher than he was when victorious here in 2013 and he looks better than ever lately. West End Rocker to regain his Classic Chase crown. (14/1)
3:45 Kempton - War Singer
We end today with War Singer who's run last time out at Sandown is being boosted by the form book with a couple of winners coming out from behind him. Ruacana has since won the feature race at Musselburgh on New Years Day and Sleepy Haven who reopposes here has also bolted up at Haydock. The only one that has let the form down is Amore Alato who was a selection on the blog last week, but he can be forgiven as he hated the ground.
War Singer travelled excellently that day and he jumped to the front at the second last but was passed by Snake Eyes and Amore Alato up the Sandown hill. The easier track at Kempton will suit him and he has won on softer ground in the past so it will suit him more than some of his rivals. Despite shaping up into a National Hunt horse now he has been in winning action over the Autumn when landing events at Sandown and Goodwood. He could still be on a lenient mark over hurdles and is well worth giving another chance to with Nick Scholfield in the saddle. (8/1)
NAP - War Singer
Nb - Dell Arca
Have a good day everyone and as always, happy punting!
Showing posts with label david pipe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label david pipe. Show all posts
Friday, 9 January 2015
Friday, 1 February 2013
Sandown and Ffos Las 2nd February
Good Morning everybody, I hope we all slept well and are ready for a Saturday of racing. Today we race at Ffos Las, Sandown and Wetherby over jumps and Lingfield on the Polytrack. Focus however is at Sandown and Great Britain's newest racecourse Ffos Las.
The highlight of the Sandown card was expected to be the Contenders Hurdle won in the past by Binocular. JP McManus had the hot favourite for the race this year in Darlan, however the Hurdle course is waterlogged. For that reason Sandown host an all chase card featuring the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. This looks a bit more simple than driving round the same named roundabout just down the road from the course. I say this as Captain Conan is a warm order on his step up in trip and faces only three rivals for this task.
But before we start on today lets reminisce from last week. We managed to find three winners including the NAP in Katenko and the NB in Mr Watson. They were both 5/1 but we then struck gold when Vino Griego won by 19 lengths at 25/1. If you had combined these in a treble you would have been looking at, to my maths a 625/1 treble. Lets hope for something as good as that this week.
One last thing, I was going to put Pique Sous up as an ante post selection for the Supreme at 25/1. He bolted up at Dundalk last night in his prep run, he is now a best priced 20/1 which is still a very good price if you can get it. Another reason for this other than his Champion bumper 3rd is the fact it looks a very weak Supreme this year. Very few look top class but Pique Sous has beaten most of them from the Irish side at some point in his career. River Maigue and My Tent Or Yours look the biggest dangers right now but Pique Sous cant be ignored now even at 20/1.
Without further ado lets begin with this weeks action.
1:50 Sandown - Toubab
Ruby Walsh is a jockey that rides sandown particularly well and he comes here for 2 rides today. The first of which is the strong travelling Toubab who was beaten only 13 lengths by Sprinter Sacre last season at Aintree. This was after being bought down in the Grand Annual 4 out when still going well. He has run just once this season though when behind William's Wishes and Champion Court at Ascot. The form of that race is holding up quite nicely, with the winner considered good enough for the Queen Mother before injury struck. Champion Court is also one of the main protagonists in the Ryanair market and is my fancy for the race. Toubab however takes a slight dip in class here and off a pound lower rating can take our opener. (10/3)
2:05 Ffos Las - The Romford Pele
Over to Wales now and we have the Welsh Champion Hurdle which of course is now a Handicap over 2 and a half miles. That means no Oscar Whiskey this year, Tanerko Emery sports the Dai Walters silks instead. Preference however is for Rebecca Curtis' The Romford Pele who was 7th in last years Champion Bumper. However this year he is a fast improving Novice hurdler winning 2 out of 4 novice hurdles. His second run was 3 lengths behind Court Minstrel who is very highly thought of by connections. Since then he has won two novice hurdles at Taunton and Chepstow, the latter run takes the eye though. That was the first time he has tackled really heavy ground and he seemed to love it beating Sin Bin by 2 lengths. Patrick Corbett takes 7 pounds off today resulting in him Carrying well under 10 stone. For them reasons we will take him to progress again here and land the spoils. (10/1)
2.25 Sandown - Third Intention
Many people think that this looks a shoe in for Captain Conan at 4/9 on his first try at 2 and a half miles. However Third Intention is more than good enough to ruffle a few feathers and is grossly overpriced. He is still a maiden after four attempts over fence and has been beaten 8 lengths by Captain Conan twice. That was over 2 miles which these days for him is on the sharp side, he flew up the hill to grab third in the Henry VIII here at Sandown. This resulted in him stepping straight up to 3 miles in the Feltham at Kempton behind Dynaste. He matched the RSA favourite for a long time there before Dynaste showed his class. 2 and half miles is much more to his liking and I have been waiting for him to run over it all season. One last mention is that he won the National Spirit hurdle over this trip in an absolute canter. He is well worth a shot today and a reverse forecast with Captain Conan. (14/1)
2:40 Ffos Las - Makethe Mostofnow
Evan Williams gelding was gifted his first chase by Keppols Hill who made a horrific mistake at the last fence. Before then he was well behind but kept to his task well before being beaten soundly at Newbury. Everything came out of the Newbury race and franked the form and it remains one of the stronger Novice chases of the year. He then went to Lingfield where he hated the course and was never travelling well, that run is best forgotten. He now enters handicaps off a low weight which was always going to be his game. Its an added bonus that he can begin handicapping at his beloved Ffos Las where he is a perfect four from four. The flat Wales course suits him as he is a lovely big Galloping horse which was his downfall at Fontwell and Lingfield. He was also travelling well when in contention and bought down at Aintree last year in the Sefton. He could well prove popular in the market today and looks a really good each way price. (14/1)
3:00 Sandown - Mad Max
For an 11 year old Mad Max is pretty lightly raced, only visiting the racecourse a total of 17 times. He has won 6 of those, the last of them coming in 2010 but tries his hand in a Veterans' chase here. This is a big step down in class from running behind the likes of Master Minded and Sizing Europe. The ground wont be a problem here and he is usually a sound jumper to meet the demands of the Esher track. One more added bonus is the return of Barry Geraghty who has partnered him on 3 of his 6 victories. In a pretty weak race we will side with Mad Max to return to winning ways. (7/1)
3:35 Sandown - Keppols Hill
Ruby gets the leg up on his second ride of the day with novice Keppols Hill who will be in heaven today. If there was a race over 10 miles he would be the winner of it down to guts and extreme stamina. Viking Blond will ensure there is no hanging around today and I would expect Keppols Hill to be picking them off one by one. The biggest fear would be his jumping as he is prone to the odd race ending mistake, saying that he was much better last time. Should complete a Ruby Walsh double at Sandown. (2/1)
3:45 Ffos Las - Consigliere
Consigliere is an old favourite of mine and is always one to make a note of when the going gets like this. He is known for his trade as a chaser and after his win last time at Ayr he reverts to hurdles. With Kieron Edgar's claim he is 17 pounds lower over hurdles than fences and that must be noted. He won last time off 138 which is as good as he is really but could be contesting bigger races later this season. He could well hose up today and is preferred to others, Consigliere the choice. (3/1)
NAP - Mad Max
NB - Keppols Hill
Lets hope for another week like the last, its also worth noting that Sue Smith has a few nice runners up at Wetherby that are well worth checking out.
Happy Punting
The highlight of the Sandown card was expected to be the Contenders Hurdle won in the past by Binocular. JP McManus had the hot favourite for the race this year in Darlan, however the Hurdle course is waterlogged. For that reason Sandown host an all chase card featuring the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. This looks a bit more simple than driving round the same named roundabout just down the road from the course. I say this as Captain Conan is a warm order on his step up in trip and faces only three rivals for this task.
But before we start on today lets reminisce from last week. We managed to find three winners including the NAP in Katenko and the NB in Mr Watson. They were both 5/1 but we then struck gold when Vino Griego won by 19 lengths at 25/1. If you had combined these in a treble you would have been looking at, to my maths a 625/1 treble. Lets hope for something as good as that this week.
One last thing, I was going to put Pique Sous up as an ante post selection for the Supreme at 25/1. He bolted up at Dundalk last night in his prep run, he is now a best priced 20/1 which is still a very good price if you can get it. Another reason for this other than his Champion bumper 3rd is the fact it looks a very weak Supreme this year. Very few look top class but Pique Sous has beaten most of them from the Irish side at some point in his career. River Maigue and My Tent Or Yours look the biggest dangers right now but Pique Sous cant be ignored now even at 20/1.
Without further ado lets begin with this weeks action.
1:50 Sandown - Toubab
Ruby Walsh is a jockey that rides sandown particularly well and he comes here for 2 rides today. The first of which is the strong travelling Toubab who was beaten only 13 lengths by Sprinter Sacre last season at Aintree. This was after being bought down in the Grand Annual 4 out when still going well. He has run just once this season though when behind William's Wishes and Champion Court at Ascot. The form of that race is holding up quite nicely, with the winner considered good enough for the Queen Mother before injury struck. Champion Court is also one of the main protagonists in the Ryanair market and is my fancy for the race. Toubab however takes a slight dip in class here and off a pound lower rating can take our opener. (10/3)
2:05 Ffos Las - The Romford Pele
Over to Wales now and we have the Welsh Champion Hurdle which of course is now a Handicap over 2 and a half miles. That means no Oscar Whiskey this year, Tanerko Emery sports the Dai Walters silks instead. Preference however is for Rebecca Curtis' The Romford Pele who was 7th in last years Champion Bumper. However this year he is a fast improving Novice hurdler winning 2 out of 4 novice hurdles. His second run was 3 lengths behind Court Minstrel who is very highly thought of by connections. Since then he has won two novice hurdles at Taunton and Chepstow, the latter run takes the eye though. That was the first time he has tackled really heavy ground and he seemed to love it beating Sin Bin by 2 lengths. Patrick Corbett takes 7 pounds off today resulting in him Carrying well under 10 stone. For them reasons we will take him to progress again here and land the spoils. (10/1)
2.25 Sandown - Third Intention
Many people think that this looks a shoe in for Captain Conan at 4/9 on his first try at 2 and a half miles. However Third Intention is more than good enough to ruffle a few feathers and is grossly overpriced. He is still a maiden after four attempts over fence and has been beaten 8 lengths by Captain Conan twice. That was over 2 miles which these days for him is on the sharp side, he flew up the hill to grab third in the Henry VIII here at Sandown. This resulted in him stepping straight up to 3 miles in the Feltham at Kempton behind Dynaste. He matched the RSA favourite for a long time there before Dynaste showed his class. 2 and half miles is much more to his liking and I have been waiting for him to run over it all season. One last mention is that he won the National Spirit hurdle over this trip in an absolute canter. He is well worth a shot today and a reverse forecast with Captain Conan. (14/1)
2:40 Ffos Las - Makethe Mostofnow
Evan Williams gelding was gifted his first chase by Keppols Hill who made a horrific mistake at the last fence. Before then he was well behind but kept to his task well before being beaten soundly at Newbury. Everything came out of the Newbury race and franked the form and it remains one of the stronger Novice chases of the year. He then went to Lingfield where he hated the course and was never travelling well, that run is best forgotten. He now enters handicaps off a low weight which was always going to be his game. Its an added bonus that he can begin handicapping at his beloved Ffos Las where he is a perfect four from four. The flat Wales course suits him as he is a lovely big Galloping horse which was his downfall at Fontwell and Lingfield. He was also travelling well when in contention and bought down at Aintree last year in the Sefton. He could well prove popular in the market today and looks a really good each way price. (14/1)
3:00 Sandown - Mad Max
For an 11 year old Mad Max is pretty lightly raced, only visiting the racecourse a total of 17 times. He has won 6 of those, the last of them coming in 2010 but tries his hand in a Veterans' chase here. This is a big step down in class from running behind the likes of Master Minded and Sizing Europe. The ground wont be a problem here and he is usually a sound jumper to meet the demands of the Esher track. One more added bonus is the return of Barry Geraghty who has partnered him on 3 of his 6 victories. In a pretty weak race we will side with Mad Max to return to winning ways. (7/1)
3:35 Sandown - Keppols Hill
Ruby gets the leg up on his second ride of the day with novice Keppols Hill who will be in heaven today. If there was a race over 10 miles he would be the winner of it down to guts and extreme stamina. Viking Blond will ensure there is no hanging around today and I would expect Keppols Hill to be picking them off one by one. The biggest fear would be his jumping as he is prone to the odd race ending mistake, saying that he was much better last time. Should complete a Ruby Walsh double at Sandown. (2/1)
3:45 Ffos Las - Consigliere
Consigliere is an old favourite of mine and is always one to make a note of when the going gets like this. He is known for his trade as a chaser and after his win last time at Ayr he reverts to hurdles. With Kieron Edgar's claim he is 17 pounds lower over hurdles than fences and that must be noted. He won last time off 138 which is as good as he is really but could be contesting bigger races later this season. He could well hose up today and is preferred to others, Consigliere the choice. (3/1)
NAP - Mad Max
NB - Keppols Hill
Lets hope for another week like the last, its also worth noting that Sue Smith has a few nice runners up at Wetherby that are well worth checking out.
Happy Punting
Friday, 16 November 2012
Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Two
Well yesterday was about as bad as it gets, the closest we had was Duke of Navan who just failed to place. I must confess something though, i switched from Coffee to Buck Magic in the conditional jockeys hurdle. Apologies for the change of heart.
Today promises to be a great day of racing with a top class renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, featuring the likes of, Hunt Ball, Walkon and of course Grand Crus. Lets crack on.
12:45 Cheltenham - Far West
Mcvicar was a high class flat recruit to the Alan King yard and is two from two over timber. Today however he must give 4 pounds to leading triumph hurdle hope Far West. The selection was a very easy winner at Chepstow on his first run in this country, in the process beating another useful Alan King horse in Handazan. He has since won at Aintree in a race which the form is working out very nicely (3rd and 4th have been first and second). In the past two years Paul Nicholls has won this with the high class Sam Winner in 2010 and last year with Hinterland, Far West looks set to follow in their shoes today. 7/4 is on offer at the moment and that could prove a good price. One to watch out for at a price is Mick Channon's, Foster's Road after getting his head in front over hurdles at Fakenham, and then on the flat at Wolverhampton the last twice.
1:20 Cheltenham - Our Father
He was a huge gamble when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last year in taking style, it appeared after then that the world was at his feet before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. In truth however it has always looked as if he was a ready made chaser, and its eye catching that David Pipe introduces him here at such a high level first time. The two main rivals in the betting should be hard to beat, but both under penalties and giving Our Father weight he should be tough to beat. A big shout to the double David Pipe had yesterday which could mean a return to form for the yard.
1:55 Cheltenham - Poker De Sivola
He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown off todays mark and Ferdy Murphy always has been a little... Let's say shrewd. But onto the form side, he turned in a disappointing effort at Newcastle first time out, he was hampered that day though and was looked after. Robert Thornton gets the leg up which is a fairly unusual jockey booking by Murphy as he is rarely used, but Poker De Sivola seems to get on with any jockey aboard him. You may remember his supreme staying performance to win the National Hunt Chase here at the festival a couple of years back. Other wins at Sandown and Hexham show his liking for undulating courses, he gets a tentative each way vote today at 25/1
Unfortuanately he is a non runner, replace him with David Pipe's Ashkazar
2:35 Cheltenham - Triolo D'alene
The Nicky Henderson representative looked an exciting French import after beating Ackertac first time at Ascot before disappointing at Cheltenham. His jumping never stood him in good health that day, but a promising reappearance at Market Rasen reinstalls confidence. The form from that race is working out quite nicely with winners and placed horses in behind next time out. He looked as if he needed that opener badly when tiring two from home and proving no match for Zitenka. Possibly the biggest eye catcher is that Barry Geraghty has starved himself down to 10-1 to take the ride today, he had the choice of good handicapper Tanks For That (non runner) but kept the faith with Triolo D'alene.
I have heard glowing reports from Tom Cooper's yard about 2009 Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer who hasnt won since his festival success. He has however been very consistent without getting his day in the sun, if anywhere back to his best he will be a serious threat to all rivals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride.
One more to keep an eye out for is Ex festival winner Finger onthe Pulse who ran brilliantly here last time (behind Nadiya De La Vega) to come third, 40/1 looks too big. Positive that top Amateur Maurice Linehan gets on very well with him.
3:05 Cheltenham - Abnaki
Jonjo's representative made a pleasing reappearance at Aintree behind fast improving Ely Brown, that was his first run since winning here at glamourous odds. If that run has had the desired affect and blown away the cobwebs, he could well upset a few major players today off a fly weight with Maurice Linehan taking off 7 pounds. One worry is that the stable are a bit hit and miss right now, but a positive is that Coffee ran a good race yesterday in a messy conditional jockeys hurdle. Not one to put your mortgage on but should go well.
Market support for ex top novice Bouggler would be interesting on his return from injury, he could potentially make his mark look silly.
3:40 Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery
He is a typical David Pipe improver whom i have been watching from the start of his career. Before his Stratford victory he had been behind some big names from leading stables, firstly at Hereford he fell behind Tour D'argent, then at Newbury he was behind Montbazon, Vulcanite and All the Aces. He is open to more improvement and past performances would suggest he isn't a 112 rated performer and shouldn't be for much longer. Today could be a great day for the Pipe Yard.
Definitely wouldnt put you off of a David Pipe lucky 31 today, some real solid chances across the card.
Our Father
Problema Tic (narrowly preferred to Ashkazar, both leading chances)
Grand Crus
Goulanes
Tanerko Emery
As always Happy Punting and here is for a better day than yesterday, it couldnt get much worse!
Today promises to be a great day of racing with a top class renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, featuring the likes of, Hunt Ball, Walkon and of course Grand Crus. Lets crack on.
12:45 Cheltenham - Far West
Mcvicar was a high class flat recruit to the Alan King yard and is two from two over timber. Today however he must give 4 pounds to leading triumph hurdle hope Far West. The selection was a very easy winner at Chepstow on his first run in this country, in the process beating another useful Alan King horse in Handazan. He has since won at Aintree in a race which the form is working out very nicely (3rd and 4th have been first and second). In the past two years Paul Nicholls has won this with the high class Sam Winner in 2010 and last year with Hinterland, Far West looks set to follow in their shoes today. 7/4 is on offer at the moment and that could prove a good price. One to watch out for at a price is Mick Channon's, Foster's Road after getting his head in front over hurdles at Fakenham, and then on the flat at Wolverhampton the last twice.
1:20 Cheltenham - Our Father
He was a huge gamble when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot last year in taking style, it appeared after then that the world was at his feet before disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree. In truth however it has always looked as if he was a ready made chaser, and its eye catching that David Pipe introduces him here at such a high level first time. The two main rivals in the betting should be hard to beat, but both under penalties and giving Our Father weight he should be tough to beat. A big shout to the double David Pipe had yesterday which could mean a return to form for the yard.
1:55 Cheltenham - Poker De Sivola
He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown off todays mark and Ferdy Murphy always has been a little... Let's say shrewd. But onto the form side, he turned in a disappointing effort at Newcastle first time out, he was hampered that day though and was looked after. Robert Thornton gets the leg up which is a fairly unusual jockey booking by Murphy as he is rarely used, but Poker De Sivola seems to get on with any jockey aboard him. You may remember his supreme staying performance to win the National Hunt Chase here at the festival a couple of years back. Other wins at Sandown and Hexham show his liking for undulating courses, he gets a tentative each way vote today at 25/1
Unfortuanately he is a non runner, replace him with David Pipe's Ashkazar
2:35 Cheltenham - Triolo D'alene
The Nicky Henderson representative looked an exciting French import after beating Ackertac first time at Ascot before disappointing at Cheltenham. His jumping never stood him in good health that day, but a promising reappearance at Market Rasen reinstalls confidence. The form from that race is working out quite nicely with winners and placed horses in behind next time out. He looked as if he needed that opener badly when tiring two from home and proving no match for Zitenka. Possibly the biggest eye catcher is that Barry Geraghty has starved himself down to 10-1 to take the ride today, he had the choice of good handicapper Tanks For That (non runner) but kept the faith with Triolo D'alene.
I have heard glowing reports from Tom Cooper's yard about 2009 Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer who hasnt won since his festival success. He has however been very consistent without getting his day in the sun, if anywhere back to his best he will be a serious threat to all rivals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride.
One more to keep an eye out for is Ex festival winner Finger onthe Pulse who ran brilliantly here last time (behind Nadiya De La Vega) to come third, 40/1 looks too big. Positive that top Amateur Maurice Linehan gets on very well with him.
3:05 Cheltenham - Abnaki
Jonjo's representative made a pleasing reappearance at Aintree behind fast improving Ely Brown, that was his first run since winning here at glamourous odds. If that run has had the desired affect and blown away the cobwebs, he could well upset a few major players today off a fly weight with Maurice Linehan taking off 7 pounds. One worry is that the stable are a bit hit and miss right now, but a positive is that Coffee ran a good race yesterday in a messy conditional jockeys hurdle. Not one to put your mortgage on but should go well.
Market support for ex top novice Bouggler would be interesting on his return from injury, he could potentially make his mark look silly.
3:40 Cheltenham - Tanerko Emery
He is a typical David Pipe improver whom i have been watching from the start of his career. Before his Stratford victory he had been behind some big names from leading stables, firstly at Hereford he fell behind Tour D'argent, then at Newbury he was behind Montbazon, Vulcanite and All the Aces. He is open to more improvement and past performances would suggest he isn't a 112 rated performer and shouldn't be for much longer. Today could be a great day for the Pipe Yard.
Definitely wouldnt put you off of a David Pipe lucky 31 today, some real solid chances across the card.
Our Father
Problema Tic (narrowly preferred to Ashkazar, both leading chances)
Grand Crus
Goulanes
Tanerko Emery
As always Happy Punting and here is for a better day than yesterday, it couldnt get much worse!
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Aintree day 1 continued
Continued from the last blog.
4:15 - Red Rum Handicap Chase
A race filled with horses who ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham which most of them were aimed at so wont necessarily be 100% for today's race. One of them horses who was aimed at the Grand Annual was DE BOITRON who could only manage 6th, James Reveley gets the leg up today but its hard to fancy him with any real conviction as we dont know how fit he really is. KID CASSIDY went off a fairly hot favourite for the race but in his style threw it away by pulling much too hard and never had a chance after that, he will need to relax alot more to land this. KUMBESHWAR was third in the race and travelled well turning for home and emptied fairly quickly but ran a very satisfactory race. We know he his tough enough to take frequent racing after last years Cheltenham and Aintree exertions. TANKS FOR THAT was the runner up at Cheltenham and looked like the winner for the majority of the home straight till he got swamped by a calm Paul Carberry on Bellvano. He will have to be on the top of his game today if he is going to give the weight away all round. I strongly fancied ASTRACAD in the Grand Annual but he was taken off his feet early on and for that his jumping suffered, he stayed on late in the day to come 7th and this race will be much more suited to him. EDGARDO SOL is a tough horse but he has had a hard season and every horse has a breaking point and today may be too much for him. We are siding with SILK DRUM to repeat last years victory in the race, this has been the plan all year and he will be spot on for today. He had been out of form but he bounced back with a second at Doncaster albeit in a bit of a farce of a race but this has shown he may just be a spring horse and id expect him to be tough to beat today.
4:50 - Betfred Manifesto Novices Chase
Finally a small field to analyse, but arguably one of the most talented fields of the day. Ruby Walsh is loyal to AL FEROF who was matching Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle before landing on a fence and losing all chance of winning. This is his first attempt at 2 and a half miles which should be up his street and jumping will be easier at this slower pace. Id argue that he is beatable this afternoon. Over fences i have never been the biggest fan of MENORAH but he ran an absolute blinder in the Arkle where he looked more of a chaser than ever, it could just be his fall at Doncaster has taught him to respect fences a bit more. He got outpaced turning for home in the Arkle so the step up in trip is very much justified today. Im glad ALASI is being tried in a top class novice chase as i do think that is where her future lies. She ran really well again in the mares hurdle to be caught on the line for 3rd two years running, that race shouldnt have taken too much out of her with the pace it was run, but you never know how well a horse takes a Chelenham race. CRISTAL BONUS ran a stinker at Cheltenham when never travelling with any fluency and hitting almost every fence in the Jewson, it was almost too bad to be true. It was as the day after it was discovered he has an abscess on his neck right where the saddle sits, Paul Nicholls described it 'as big an abscess you will ever see' saying it was as big as a fist. His bald patch from where is burst shows that he isnt lying. On that news he really deserves another chance and 15/2 could be a huge price. We are going to take a chance with PEPITE ROSE however who i have been following for a while, she is 4 from 4 over fences and has beaten some good horses on the bridle in that run. If she is good enough to beat her classy opponents today is yet to be seen. But all im going to say is that she looks like she could be a very VERY good horse.
5:25 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
David Pipe won this last year with Battle Group, he sends 4 down to post here with his best chance seeming to be OUR FATHER who has enough weight for a lightly raced horse and he was extremely disappointing in the Pertemps at Cheltenham, for that reason alone he has to be opposed here. VOLADOR won gamely last time at Uttoxeter but will need to improve on that, behind him in 3rd that year was SHOEGAZER who is another of David Pipe's, Paul Townend is a very interesting Jockey booking for a bit of a random race, but im not sure how much to read into it. SPIRIT RIVER was running nicely last time at Cheltenham but fell at the last when a very tired horse, he will be fitter today and carries the burden of pricewise. DEIREADH RE is a very useful horse and should be thereabouts today if running to his best Harry Derham's 7 pound claim is invaluable today. GULLINBURSTI is a very talented young horse but is starting to look a little bit vulnerable with 2 seconds in his last two runs. He should be close though. VEILED is another very very useful horse and if she puts her best foot forward she should be another one that is there at the end. Jonjo saddles PALACE JESTER in this race who has some decent form to his name but he may just be a bit short today and others look preferred. CORKAGE is an admirable horse but he saves his best for Doncaster. We are going to take a chance on the ultra consistent TRUSTAN TIMES today who very much deserves his chance here and the step up in trip will be well in his favour. Trustan Times to land it today.
As i'm finishing writing this Big Bucks has just won the Liverpool Hurdle, take note guys, you wont see one better than him in your lifetime
Happy Punting guys
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