Sandown and Ffos Las 2nd February

Good Morning everybody, I hope we all slept well and are ready for a Saturday of racing. Today we race at Ffos Las, Sandown and Wetherby over jumps and Lingfield on the Polytrack. Focus however is at Sandown and Great Britain's newest racecourse Ffos Las.

The highlight of the Sandown card was expected to be the Contenders Hurdle won in the past by Binocular. JP McManus had the hot favourite for the race this year in Darlan, however the Hurdle course is waterlogged. For that reason Sandown host an all chase card featuring the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. This looks a bit more simple than driving round the same named roundabout just down the road from the course. I say this as Captain Conan is a warm order on his step up in trip and faces only three rivals for this task.

But before we start on today lets reminisce from last week. We managed to find three winners including the NAP in Katenko and the NB in Mr Watson. They were both 5/1 but we then struck gold when Vino Griego won by 19 lengths at 25/1. If you had combined these in a treble you would have been looking at, to my maths a 625/1 treble. Lets hope for something as good as that this week.

One last thing, I was going to put Pique Sous up as an ante post selection for the Supreme at 25/1. He bolted up at Dundalk last night in his prep run, he is now a best priced 20/1 which is still a very good price if you can get it. Another reason for this other than his Champion bumper 3rd is the fact it looks a very weak Supreme this year. Very few look top class but Pique Sous has beaten most of them from the Irish side at some point in his career. River Maigue and My Tent Or Yours look the biggest dangers right now but Pique Sous cant be ignored now even at 20/1.

Without further ado lets begin with this weeks action.

1:50 Sandown - Toubab

Ruby Walsh is a jockey that rides sandown particularly well and he comes here for 2 rides today. The first of which is the strong travelling Toubab who was beaten only 13 lengths by Sprinter Sacre last season at Aintree. This was after being bought down in the Grand Annual 4 out when still going well. He has run just once this season though when behind William's Wishes and Champion Court at Ascot. The form of that race is holding up quite nicely, with the winner considered good enough for the Queen Mother before injury struck. Champion Court is also one of the main protagonists in the Ryanair market and is my fancy for the race. Toubab however takes a slight dip in class here and off a pound lower rating can take our opener. (10/3)

2:05 Ffos Las - The Romford Pele

Over to Wales now and we have the Welsh Champion Hurdle which of course is now a Handicap over 2 and a half miles. That means no Oscar Whiskey this year, Tanerko Emery sports the Dai Walters silks instead. Preference however is for Rebecca Curtis' The Romford Pele who was 7th in last years Champion Bumper. However this year he is a fast improving Novice hurdler winning 2 out of 4 novice hurdles. His second run was 3 lengths behind Court Minstrel who is very highly thought of by connections. Since then he has won two novice hurdles at Taunton and Chepstow, the latter run takes the eye though. That was the first time he has tackled really heavy ground and he seemed to love it beating Sin Bin by 2 lengths. Patrick Corbett takes 7 pounds off today resulting in him Carrying well under 10 stone. For them reasons we will take him to progress again here and land the spoils. (10/1)

2.25 Sandown - Third Intention

Many people think that this looks a shoe in for Captain Conan at 4/9 on his first try at 2 and a half miles. However Third Intention is more than good enough to ruffle a few feathers and is grossly overpriced. He is still a maiden after four attempts over fence and has been beaten 8 lengths by Captain Conan twice. That was over 2 miles which these days for him is on the sharp side, he flew up the hill to grab third in the Henry VIII here at Sandown. This resulted in him stepping straight up to 3 miles in the Feltham at Kempton behind Dynaste. He matched the RSA favourite for a long time there before Dynaste showed his class. 2 and half miles is much more to his liking and I have been waiting for him to run over it all season. One last mention is that he won the National Spirit hurdle over this trip in an absolute canter. He is well worth a shot today and a reverse forecast with Captain Conan. (14/1)

2:40 Ffos Las - Makethe Mostofnow

Evan Williams gelding was gifted his first chase by Keppols Hill who made a horrific mistake at the last fence. Before then he was well behind but kept to his task well before being beaten soundly at Newbury. Everything came out of the Newbury race and franked the form and it remains one of the stronger Novice chases of the year. He then went to Lingfield where he hated the course and was never travelling well, that run is best forgotten. He now enters handicaps off a low weight which was always going to be his game. Its an added bonus that he can begin handicapping at his beloved Ffos Las where he is a perfect four from four. The flat Wales course suits him as he is a lovely big Galloping horse which was his downfall at Fontwell and Lingfield. He was also travelling well when in contention and bought down at Aintree last year in the Sefton. He could well prove popular in the market today and looks a really good each way price. (14/1)

3:00 Sandown - Mad Max

For an 11 year old Mad Max is pretty lightly raced, only visiting the racecourse a total of 17 times. He has won 6 of those, the last of them coming in 2010 but tries his hand in a Veterans' chase here. This is a big step down in class from running behind the likes of Master Minded and Sizing Europe. The ground wont be a problem here and he is usually a sound jumper to meet the demands of the Esher track. One more added bonus is the return of Barry Geraghty who has partnered him on 3 of his 6 victories. In a pretty weak race we will side with Mad Max to return to winning ways. (7/1)

3:35 Sandown - Keppols Hill

Ruby gets the leg up on his second ride of the day with novice Keppols Hill who will be in heaven today. If there was a race over 10 miles he would be the winner of it down to guts and extreme stamina. Viking Blond will ensure there is no hanging around today and I would expect Keppols Hill to be picking them off one by one. The biggest fear would be his jumping as he is prone to the odd race ending mistake, saying that he was much better last time. Should complete a Ruby Walsh double at Sandown. (2/1)

3:45 Ffos Las - Consigliere

Consigliere is an old favourite of mine and is always one to make a note of when the going gets like this. He is known for his trade as a chaser and after his win last time at Ayr he reverts to hurdles. With Kieron Edgar's claim he is 17 pounds lower over hurdles than fences and that must be noted. He won last time off 138 which is as good as he is really but could be contesting bigger races later this season. He could well hose up today and is preferred to others, Consigliere the choice. (3/1)

NAP - Mad Max
NB - Keppols Hill

Lets hope for another week like the last, its also worth noting that Sue Smith has a few nice runners up at Wetherby that are well worth checking out.

Happy Punting

Cheltenham Open Meeting Day Three

Well yesterday was more like it, with the first two winning and stamping their authority for March. Far West now as short as 8/1 favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and Our Father also as short as 8/1 for the RSA. Skybet are the standout at 14/1 after his bloodless beating of Sire Collonges who in turn was miles clear of old rival Sea of Thunder.

Another top class looking Novice chase starts us off today which is where we shall start.

1:10 Cheltenham - Captain Conan

He looks like one of the standout novice chasers of this season and this should be a race to stake his claims for the Arkle. He wont have things his own way with Gary Moore Yardstick Sire De Grugy who won easily at Kempton on debut also in the field. The main danger could be from Third Intention who was probably beaten by lack of race fitness behind His Excellency here last time. Paul Nicholls won the PaddyPower yesterday and is represented by Exeter winner Rebel Rebellion, he could be biting off a bit more than he can chew here however. Last years Tolworth hurdle winner looks the one to be on today with a win on soft ground at Auteil in France. Added confidence in his Tolworth Hurdle victory was also on Soft. It will take a very good one to beat him on his reappearance today.

1:45 Cheltenham - Captain Sunshine

I fancied him for his reappearance here last time, that time race fitness told and he faded after 2 from home. He was entered last week at Exeter where he 'refused' to race, in my mind thats a bit harsh. He was subject to a big gamble and was going off 5/4 before disaster struck. Just as they were coming out onto the track he decided to go left and take a turn instead of towards the tape. In my opinion the starter should have recalled them, but hey thats not up to me. He didnt plant his feet or look unwilling to run at anypoint down at the start. Before that blotch on his CV he had shown great promise and the fact that he is turned out again so quickly shows they think he is in good heart and could be the one to beat here. Paul Nicholls' Ruben Cotter is the one for the early money. Emma Lavelle's representative looks worth another try though.

2:20 Cheltenham - Wishfull Thinking

Were the going tomorrow good instead of as testing as today he'd be opposable, it would also mean the Sprinter Sacre would be going to post however. This looks to be his day in the sun this year receiving weight from inferior rivals, unfortunately the price reflects that. Seen just the once this year at Aintree when in the Old Roan field that got slammed by For Non Stop, that was 2 and a half miles. The drop back to two miles on this ground will suit him no end and should dismiss of the reappearing Doeslessthanme.

Imperial Shabra, the Irish Raider from the enigmatic Oliver Brady yard could be the biggest danger. He was considered good enough to go for the Jewson last year but was pulled out at the last stage. He has had alot of runs since then, well into the double figures but proved he isnt in need of a break when a close third to Cristal Bonus last time out. The 'toughest horse in training' could be a tough nut to crack here today. One other bonus is that Oliver Brady does very well with his runners in England, Imperial Shabra himself has won at Stratford earlier in the year. I recall Baron De Feypo winning at the festival a few years back, that was his highest profile win. A solid each way chance.

2:50 Cheltenham - Bothy

Brian Ellison's charge made a more than pleasing comeback off topweight at Wetherby, beaten a length by the reopposing Hi Dancer for Ben Haslam. One major thing in Bothy's court today is the testing ground which everyone knows are his preferred condtions. Five pounds higher today than at Wetherby, he should strip alot fitter for his reappearance and looks the one to beat on his old form. You will remember he was second in the Totesport trophy by a short head off four pounds lower behind Recession Proof. Next time out he was 6 lengths beaten by Carlito Brigante, who has gone on to bigger and better things. A confident vote and 16/1 is way overpriced.

3:25 Cheltenham - Coneygree

He may just slip in under the radar here with bigger more powerful stables represented here, but Coneygree absolutely routed his rivals at Uttoxeter. You'd have to go back 20 lengths before you found the second placed horse from Donald McCain yard, its not the only time he has beaten a McCain horse. On his debut he handed out a beating to the expensive Dannanceys Hill. He has a bit to find with Village Vic on their Newbury bumper form and he could be the biggest threat today, after a very positive debut. Two things stick out to me about Coneygree however. The first is that he seems to excel on softer ground and is an improving horse, the second of which is his breeding. He is a half brother to Hennessy winner Carruthers, signifying he will probably need further in time and today should suit him down to the ground. The current 8/1 on offer looks a good bet and could well be the value in the race.

4:00 Cheltenham - Fascino Rustico

John Hales owned the Paddy Power winner yesterday and he could just have another good one here with Carlisle bumper winner Fascino Rustico. This will be his first start for Paul Nicholls since switching from Ron O'Leary's yard and one would think he'd improve for that. A big imposing type that is destined to try his hand in some novice hurdles later this season, and next season chasing beckons for him. He will improve for this run but looks by far the best of these and should take all the beating. This is also attheraces presenter Martin Kelly's horse to watch for the season (via Twitter)

Lets hope to follow up after a good day yesterday, a reminder that last years Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever takes part in his first hurdle at 12:45

As always Happy Punting guys

2012 National Hunt Season Profiles - Captain Conan

Nicky Henderson's French inmate out of Lavandou made a fantastic start to life in England by winning the Tolworth hurdle, albeit beating a below par Prospect Wells and a hanging Colour Squadron. It seemed that he would be the novice to come through and challenge at the top. However Henderson kept him on the quiet side with the plan of chasing this year on the agenda.

He disappointed majorly at Leopardstown in a race won by Benefficient (50/1) before again putting in a below par effort at Kelso. It appeared that the Tolworth victory was just a fluke, until he dropped back to two miles at Aintree. Looking like the winner for much of the straight he eventually gave way and settled for second behind Darlan (2nd in the supreme). That day was probably his best run to date and reinstalled the faith of his followers.

In truth Chasing always was going to be his game and his stature suggests that. He is an absolute mountain of a horse towering well above the others in the field and should take to fences nicely. The main danger in the early market for the Arkle is stablemate Simonsig who is sure to be the mount of Barry Geraghty. The presence of him could just mean Captain Conan goes a little under the radar. Another possibility is a crack at 2 and a half miles, he looks like a horse that will get further in time, however last year he barely got over two miles.

This season should bring a new lease of life to Captain Conan and i'd be surprised if at the end of the year he weren't one of the top novices. Available right now at around 14/1 for the Arkle and 16/1 for The Jewson in March, im not sure as of yet what route they are taking with him, or where his first run shall be.

Thanks guys, happy punting.

P.S Agent Archie looks a steal at Stratford tomorrow in the 1:35, 2/1 is available. If fit he should win after being a very useful novice last year.