Haydock 12:20 - Hollow Tree
Donald McCain's yard have been in fine order as of late and this race is small but competitive. Balder Succes will go off a short priced favourite but Hollow Tree is preferred, with the better soft ground form under his belt. He hasn't been seen since his 7th in the triumph hurdle, which may not put much between him and his main rival today. But since switching to hurdles he has gone from strength to strength and any more improvement should see him win today.
Ascot 12:35 - Shernando
Nicky Henderson's string was a useful performer on the flat and ran an encouraging race in his first hurdle at Newbury. After that he flunked at Sandown when odds on to oblige, that trip was more than likely too short though. Hence the reason for the step up to 2m 6f today, a worry for most runners today will be the ground, but on the few occasions Shernando has experienced it he has performed well. As long as the step up in trip works in his favour he could well win first time this season.
Haydock 12:55 - Black Thunder
He made an encouraging reappearance at Kempton when third in a good handicap hurdle, that will have put him straight for today. He does however have the huge burden of carrying top weight on this ground. He showed a liking for softer ground at Cheptsow and he could still be well handicapped off a mark of 139. This is a better race however and has other improving horses to overcome including Cheltenham winner Double Ross.
Haydock 2:00 - Railway Dillon
He was last of four to finish on reappearance this year, but truth is he usually needs the run and comes on leaps and bounds for it. He is off a career high mark but was a huge improver last year and it would be no surprise if more were to come. Looking back through his form, pretty much all of his worthwhile form is on very soft ground. In fact the only races he was unplaced in were due to faster ground, from that he has earned the title mudlark. Shouldn't be dismissed lightly and 10/1 is simply too big, wont be unplaced.
Ascot 2:10 - For Non Stop
Nick Williams gelding was one of the top novices over the middle distance last year with his third in the Jewson. However he looked better than ever when pounding some good rivals in the Old Roan. Including Wishfull Thinking by 23 lengths (receiving 11 pounds), he dotted up at Cheltenham last week in a hot race. For Non Stop gets 4 pounds from Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow, the main threat could however be from Captain Chris. But race fitness could well be the order here and For Non Stop is taken to go back to back.
Haydock 2:30 - Mr Moonshine
Conditions are near perfect for this one today after last time not having to toe for the end of the race. Sue Smith returns him to hurdles today and may have found a good opening for him. His reappearance this year was over hurdles when finishing second at Wetherby on faster ground. He was one of the top novices over 3 miles last year but the 2 and a half miles last time is far from ideal. Everything about him screams stayer and that will definitely come in handy today. The worry is Katkeau who has heavy form in France and comes from David Pipe's yard (who has won this the last two years with Grand Crus and Dynaste). Mr Moonshine could well be worth an each way shout however.
Ascot 2:45 - Get Me Out Of Here
Oscar Whisky came down at the last when cruising upsides battling Overturn in this race last year. 4 go to post this year but its far from short on talent with Oscar whisky and the selection giving 4 pounds to Brampour and Raya Star. Brampour is weighted to dead heat with Get Me Out Of Here on Kempton form, but that was a very slowly run race and this will suit AP's mount much more than Brampour today. That is why he is the selection after improving on past form late last year and could again improve.
Haydock 3:05 - Weird Al
The Betfair Chase doesnt have as much glamour as last years renewal with Kauto Star's comeback. On good ground Long Run would be a fairly solid favourite. But on ground like this its difficult to see him getting competitive with confirmed mudlark Weird Al. He won the Charlie Hall last year first time out and then finished third here behind Long run. He will handle the ground better than everything else in the field with the exception of Cannington Brook, who looks just short on class here. Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall impressively but may get stuck in the mud, whereas the biggest threat may come from Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster. Donald McCain is taken to land the 2012 Betfair Chase with Weird Al.
Ascot 3:20 - Mad Max
This race could be deceptively weak with the main four in the betting having chinks in their armour. Tanks For That has been exposed at this level but still remains capable, whereas this will be a bit sharp for Champion Court. Pepite Rose will be the biggest danger but this could be as good as she is, Toubab rarely finds off the bridle and conditions will not suit. This introduces Mad Max who has form on this ground and is due a win now he has recovered from injuries. He was running a huge race in the Arkle when leaving a hole in the second last behind Sizing Europe, since then it hasn't been straight forward. He is one of the few that will enjoy the ground, being a past winner and a massive individual should make his mark. One last point that Neil Mulholland books Richard Johnson for the ride today instead of Dougie Costello. Huge each way value.
Haydock 3:40 - Pettifour
Phew! Last race of today for me, its been a long one today, apologies! Pettifour could well be the value in the Haydock Finale so long he can jump with fluency. He overcame a monster absence last year to run a huge race at Cheltenham in a top handicap hurdle behind Dorset Square. An added bonus is that he should plough through this ground under Sam Twiston-Davies and will stay no problem. The only worry is that he sometimes struggles to find a jumping rhythm over the larger obstacles. We will go with Pettifour to either enhance our profits or get us out of trouble, hopefully the former!
One final thing is the a tentative vote in the 1:40 at Ascot is Be My Light who has been knocking on the door far too long
Nap - Weird Al
Nb - Hollow Tree
As always happy punting guys!
Showing posts with label get me out of here. Show all posts
Showing posts with label get me out of here. Show all posts
Friday, 23 November 2012
Friday, 17 February 2012
Newbury on Friday
A big meeting today at Newbury, unfortunately for me i cant go to the meeting today after originally having tickets to last Saturday. But well done to Newbury for staging this re-arranged card and also for granting free entry.
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
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