I write this after returning from our yearly staff party, in the raffle the top prize was a 42 inch flat screen TV. Of course I won bath soaps (passion fruit) some cheese and wine. Please form an orderly queue to take a bath with smelly cheese and white wine with yours truly.
Onto more pressing matters and a cracking day of racing at Ascot and hopefully Haydock. Lets start shall we?
1:30 Ascot - Cedre Bleu
Paul Nicholls is without Big Bucks this week, but Cedre Bleu can claim some slight compensation here. The soft ground wont hinder him in the slightest and is still relatively unexposed over fences. He had a nice pipe opener at Newbury last time when a very close fourth under top weight. Today he should build on that with Ruby back on board and everything seemingly in his favour, including 7 pounds from rival Solix. Ian Williams' Gelding is useful in his own right, but cant be trusted in the jumping department. Therefore a very confident vote goes to Cedre Bleu. (6/4)
1:45 Haydock - Bakbenscher
Choc Thornton is at Ascot to ride Balder Succes today, Wayne Hutchinson fills in for today however and is more than capable. Bakbenscher was beaten a long way last time, but there is more to it than meets the eye. He was almost bought down on 3 occasions and recovered each time, he was bang in contention turning for home, but tired. Previously he had run well at Chepstow and a line can be put through his Newbury run. So long as the meeting is on today he will enjoy the ground and must have a good chance. The presence of Hollow Tree means he runs off of lower than 11 stone which could be vital in this ground. (8/1)
2:00 Ascot - Master Of The Hall
Barry Geraghty shuns Master Of The Hall here for stable mate Cucumber run. AP is far from a stranger to this horse though after riding on debut and over fences at Kelso. He reverts back to hurdles today and with no Big Buck's lining up, its a wide open contest. 2010 was his last run over hurdles but in truth he looks like more of the hurdling type and should show well. The ground isn't a worry either with multiple wins on soft ground and has proved himself over the distance, Including a chase win at This track. On seasonal reappearance he was well put in his place by Silviniaco Conti, but he should strip fitter for that run and the form is red hot from the race. On that form he could prove the one to be with and is fantastic each way value. (8/1)
2:15 Haydock - Douglas Julian
Sue Smith has planned this race for Douglas Julian since his Kelso win a fortnight ago. The heavy ground has come that she wanted and there is alot in his favour, staying power being one of them. The mix of staying power and a low weight could be lethal here, Jonathan England takes a further 7 pounds off his back and is better than your average claimer. There are alot of dangers in the race but Douglas Julian could well be good enough to land the Tommy Whittle. (7/1)
2:35 Ascot - Hey Big Spender
Colin Tizzard's charge was fancied in the Peterborough which has been abandoned twice this season. He has always been a sound jumper but one mistake seems to hold him back here and then, a clear round will see him round in front today. His trainer went on record as saying he is a stone better in heavy ground, which would make it seem as if he needs this ground. Others may struggle in it here. The only negative is that he is second top weight and must give alot away to the others. He still represents good value however and should take some beating on seasonal debut. (4/1)
3:10 Ascot - Olofi
Olofi was a pretty impressive winner last time out at Cheltenham on testing ground. Paddy Brennan once again takes the ride and an 8 pound rise in the weights shouldnt be enough hold him back. Tom George gave a positive write up in the Racing Post about Olofi this week and early money is key to him. Though there are a number of unexposed types in the field, yet he could still have a shade more improvement in him. Olofi is taken to land the odds today in the Ladbroke. (9/1)
Bothy - He was behind Olofi at Cheltenham and has since gone on to run well for a long way in the Fighting Fifth behind Countrywide Flame. That is top form but he was well beat in truth. The most interesting part about his run here today is regular jockey Danny Cook is at Haydock. Seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett takes the ride instead, putting him on a more than winable mark. Bothy is always a horse to follow on testing ground, which is why he is an each way selection today at glamorous odds. (28/1)
As im writing this Haydock has been given the green light, so lets look forward to a big day and many winners.
Happy Punting
Showing posts with label ascot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ascot. Show all posts
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Friday, 23 November 2012
Betfair Chase Day
Haydock 12:20 - Hollow Tree
Donald McCain's yard have been in fine order as of late and this race is small but competitive. Balder Succes will go off a short priced favourite but Hollow Tree is preferred, with the better soft ground form under his belt. He hasn't been seen since his 7th in the triumph hurdle, which may not put much between him and his main rival today. But since switching to hurdles he has gone from strength to strength and any more improvement should see him win today.
Ascot 12:35 - Shernando
Nicky Henderson's string was a useful performer on the flat and ran an encouraging race in his first hurdle at Newbury. After that he flunked at Sandown when odds on to oblige, that trip was more than likely too short though. Hence the reason for the step up to 2m 6f today, a worry for most runners today will be the ground, but on the few occasions Shernando has experienced it he has performed well. As long as the step up in trip works in his favour he could well win first time this season.
Haydock 12:55 - Black Thunder
He made an encouraging reappearance at Kempton when third in a good handicap hurdle, that will have put him straight for today. He does however have the huge burden of carrying top weight on this ground. He showed a liking for softer ground at Cheptsow and he could still be well handicapped off a mark of 139. This is a better race however and has other improving horses to overcome including Cheltenham winner Double Ross.
Haydock 2:00 - Railway Dillon
He was last of four to finish on reappearance this year, but truth is he usually needs the run and comes on leaps and bounds for it. He is off a career high mark but was a huge improver last year and it would be no surprise if more were to come. Looking back through his form, pretty much all of his worthwhile form is on very soft ground. In fact the only races he was unplaced in were due to faster ground, from that he has earned the title mudlark. Shouldn't be dismissed lightly and 10/1 is simply too big, wont be unplaced.
Ascot 2:10 - For Non Stop
Nick Williams gelding was one of the top novices over the middle distance last year with his third in the Jewson. However he looked better than ever when pounding some good rivals in the Old Roan. Including Wishfull Thinking by 23 lengths (receiving 11 pounds), he dotted up at Cheltenham last week in a hot race. For Non Stop gets 4 pounds from Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow, the main threat could however be from Captain Chris. But race fitness could well be the order here and For Non Stop is taken to go back to back.
Haydock 2:30 - Mr Moonshine
Conditions are near perfect for this one today after last time not having to toe for the end of the race. Sue Smith returns him to hurdles today and may have found a good opening for him. His reappearance this year was over hurdles when finishing second at Wetherby on faster ground. He was one of the top novices over 3 miles last year but the 2 and a half miles last time is far from ideal. Everything about him screams stayer and that will definitely come in handy today. The worry is Katkeau who has heavy form in France and comes from David Pipe's yard (who has won this the last two years with Grand Crus and Dynaste). Mr Moonshine could well be worth an each way shout however.
Ascot 2:45 - Get Me Out Of Here
Oscar Whisky came down at the last when cruising upsides battling Overturn in this race last year. 4 go to post this year but its far from short on talent with Oscar whisky and the selection giving 4 pounds to Brampour and Raya Star. Brampour is weighted to dead heat with Get Me Out Of Here on Kempton form, but that was a very slowly run race and this will suit AP's mount much more than Brampour today. That is why he is the selection after improving on past form late last year and could again improve.
Haydock 3:05 - Weird Al
The Betfair Chase doesnt have as much glamour as last years renewal with Kauto Star's comeback. On good ground Long Run would be a fairly solid favourite. But on ground like this its difficult to see him getting competitive with confirmed mudlark Weird Al. He won the Charlie Hall last year first time out and then finished third here behind Long run. He will handle the ground better than everything else in the field with the exception of Cannington Brook, who looks just short on class here. Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall impressively but may get stuck in the mud, whereas the biggest threat may come from Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster. Donald McCain is taken to land the 2012 Betfair Chase with Weird Al.
Ascot 3:20 - Mad Max
This race could be deceptively weak with the main four in the betting having chinks in their armour. Tanks For That has been exposed at this level but still remains capable, whereas this will be a bit sharp for Champion Court. Pepite Rose will be the biggest danger but this could be as good as she is, Toubab rarely finds off the bridle and conditions will not suit. This introduces Mad Max who has form on this ground and is due a win now he has recovered from injuries. He was running a huge race in the Arkle when leaving a hole in the second last behind Sizing Europe, since then it hasn't been straight forward. He is one of the few that will enjoy the ground, being a past winner and a massive individual should make his mark. One last point that Neil Mulholland books Richard Johnson for the ride today instead of Dougie Costello. Huge each way value.
Haydock 3:40 - Pettifour
Phew! Last race of today for me, its been a long one today, apologies! Pettifour could well be the value in the Haydock Finale so long he can jump with fluency. He overcame a monster absence last year to run a huge race at Cheltenham in a top handicap hurdle behind Dorset Square. An added bonus is that he should plough through this ground under Sam Twiston-Davies and will stay no problem. The only worry is that he sometimes struggles to find a jumping rhythm over the larger obstacles. We will go with Pettifour to either enhance our profits or get us out of trouble, hopefully the former!
One final thing is the a tentative vote in the 1:40 at Ascot is Be My Light who has been knocking on the door far too long
Nap - Weird Al
Nb - Hollow Tree
As always happy punting guys!
Donald McCain's yard have been in fine order as of late and this race is small but competitive. Balder Succes will go off a short priced favourite but Hollow Tree is preferred, with the better soft ground form under his belt. He hasn't been seen since his 7th in the triumph hurdle, which may not put much between him and his main rival today. But since switching to hurdles he has gone from strength to strength and any more improvement should see him win today.
Ascot 12:35 - Shernando
Nicky Henderson's string was a useful performer on the flat and ran an encouraging race in his first hurdle at Newbury. After that he flunked at Sandown when odds on to oblige, that trip was more than likely too short though. Hence the reason for the step up to 2m 6f today, a worry for most runners today will be the ground, but on the few occasions Shernando has experienced it he has performed well. As long as the step up in trip works in his favour he could well win first time this season.
Haydock 12:55 - Black Thunder
He made an encouraging reappearance at Kempton when third in a good handicap hurdle, that will have put him straight for today. He does however have the huge burden of carrying top weight on this ground. He showed a liking for softer ground at Cheptsow and he could still be well handicapped off a mark of 139. This is a better race however and has other improving horses to overcome including Cheltenham winner Double Ross.
Haydock 2:00 - Railway Dillon
He was last of four to finish on reappearance this year, but truth is he usually needs the run and comes on leaps and bounds for it. He is off a career high mark but was a huge improver last year and it would be no surprise if more were to come. Looking back through his form, pretty much all of his worthwhile form is on very soft ground. In fact the only races he was unplaced in were due to faster ground, from that he has earned the title mudlark. Shouldn't be dismissed lightly and 10/1 is simply too big, wont be unplaced.
Ascot 2:10 - For Non Stop
Nick Williams gelding was one of the top novices over the middle distance last year with his third in the Jewson. However he looked better than ever when pounding some good rivals in the Old Roan. Including Wishfull Thinking by 23 lengths (receiving 11 pounds), he dotted up at Cheltenham last week in a hot race. For Non Stop gets 4 pounds from Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow, the main threat could however be from Captain Chris. But race fitness could well be the order here and For Non Stop is taken to go back to back.
Haydock 2:30 - Mr Moonshine
Conditions are near perfect for this one today after last time not having to toe for the end of the race. Sue Smith returns him to hurdles today and may have found a good opening for him. His reappearance this year was over hurdles when finishing second at Wetherby on faster ground. He was one of the top novices over 3 miles last year but the 2 and a half miles last time is far from ideal. Everything about him screams stayer and that will definitely come in handy today. The worry is Katkeau who has heavy form in France and comes from David Pipe's yard (who has won this the last two years with Grand Crus and Dynaste). Mr Moonshine could well be worth an each way shout however.
Ascot 2:45 - Get Me Out Of Here
Oscar Whisky came down at the last when cruising upsides battling Overturn in this race last year. 4 go to post this year but its far from short on talent with Oscar whisky and the selection giving 4 pounds to Brampour and Raya Star. Brampour is weighted to dead heat with Get Me Out Of Here on Kempton form, but that was a very slowly run race and this will suit AP's mount much more than Brampour today. That is why he is the selection after improving on past form late last year and could again improve.
Haydock 3:05 - Weird Al
The Betfair Chase doesnt have as much glamour as last years renewal with Kauto Star's comeback. On good ground Long Run would be a fairly solid favourite. But on ground like this its difficult to see him getting competitive with confirmed mudlark Weird Al. He won the Charlie Hall last year first time out and then finished third here behind Long run. He will handle the ground better than everything else in the field with the exception of Cannington Brook, who looks just short on class here. Silviniaco Conti won the Charlie Hall impressively but may get stuck in the mud, whereas the biggest threat may come from Gold Cup runner up The Giant Bolster. Donald McCain is taken to land the 2012 Betfair Chase with Weird Al.
Ascot 3:20 - Mad Max
This race could be deceptively weak with the main four in the betting having chinks in their armour. Tanks For That has been exposed at this level but still remains capable, whereas this will be a bit sharp for Champion Court. Pepite Rose will be the biggest danger but this could be as good as she is, Toubab rarely finds off the bridle and conditions will not suit. This introduces Mad Max who has form on this ground and is due a win now he has recovered from injuries. He was running a huge race in the Arkle when leaving a hole in the second last behind Sizing Europe, since then it hasn't been straight forward. He is one of the few that will enjoy the ground, being a past winner and a massive individual should make his mark. One last point that Neil Mulholland books Richard Johnson for the ride today instead of Dougie Costello. Huge each way value.
Haydock 3:40 - Pettifour
Phew! Last race of today for me, its been a long one today, apologies! Pettifour could well be the value in the Haydock Finale so long he can jump with fluency. He overcame a monster absence last year to run a huge race at Cheltenham in a top handicap hurdle behind Dorset Square. An added bonus is that he should plough through this ground under Sam Twiston-Davies and will stay no problem. The only worry is that he sometimes struggles to find a jumping rhythm over the larger obstacles. We will go with Pettifour to either enhance our profits or get us out of trouble, hopefully the former!
One final thing is the a tentative vote in the 1:40 at Ascot is Be My Light who has been knocking on the door far too long
Nap - Weird Al
Nb - Hollow Tree
As always happy punting guys!
Friday, 15 June 2012
Ascot is on the horizon
A pretty good week by all accounts last week, one winner and 3 other places at nice enough prices. But the poorer quality racing continues this week ahead of Royal Ascot with handicaps looking the order of the day all round.
As I'm sure everybody knows, Black Caviar is here and is reportedly well ahead of her crack at the Diamond Jubilee. She is around a 2/5 favourite now and it looks as if the value has gone, personally I like Bated Breath each way still available at around 10/1. But onto the racing today.
2:50 Sandown - Sam Sharp - Second the last two times, each by under a length. I was there for his Sandown defeat to todays rival Weapon of Choice, he looked to have his measure but for idling in the final strides. He was probably lacking in the fitness department from the winner as it was his first run since December. Only raised a pound for his last two efforts and coming out just better on the ratings over Weapon of Choice, he can finally get his head in front. Disappointing if out of the places.
3:45 York - Doncaster Rover - Steps up to a mile for the first time today which for me is nothing but a positive. He goes on any ground so getting his toe in here shouldn't phase him in the slightest, neither will the course as he is a winner round here and seems to enjoy it. He usually gets the definition of running on late over 7 furlongs. With that in mind a mile should be right up his street with others in the field looking a touch out of form. The danger could well be Ptolemaic getting heaps of weight from his elders.
4:20 Bath - Selinda - Backing Mick Channon's charge blind right now isn't a bad idea and this one looks to be his best bet of the day. She ran well on her return to come fourth at Ayr when probably needing the run and will strip much fitter for that experience. She is a winner of two races (both at Yarmouth) on fast ground and todays ground will be fine for her. Matthew Davies takes the ride today and has been riding a few winners for this stable as of late. This could be another one.
5:30 Sandown - Bolivia - At face value this one seems an odd selection, but delve a bit deeper and you will discover her a bit more. She has been out of her depth running in class ones the whole time and if memory serves me right she had an entry at Royal Ascot last year for a long time. Today is a class four and will be much more to her standard. In the bigger races she has been running well behind horses such as Barbican (beaten 12 lengths) and if repeating that form she is sure to go close. Today is the lowest mark she has run off of but also the longest distance she has run over, which is no negative. Could well go close.
8:15 Leicester - Red Inca - Brian Ellison will be praying that the meeting today passes the 7am inspection as Red Inca will love the ground today. He first caught my eye over hurdles at Musselburgh staying on over 2 miles, he won next time out and went on to run a blinder at Sandown in a hot handicap behind Lexi's boy. He was right up there till just after two from home when the stamina gauge emptied. He was well looked after by Felix De Giles that day and has since ran a good 5th at Beverley on ground probably too fast for him. There was a runaway winner that day and the form is better than the numbers say. Should improve this time.
Hopefully this gives us a few pennies for Royal Ascot next week, I'll be back on Tuesday when we will be hoping Frankel can supply us with another mesmerizing performance.
Happy Punting as always
Friday, 11 May 2012
Ascot and Haydock Handicaps
Its been a great week of racing at Chester, but the highlight of the week for me was Overturn running yet another fantastic race when coming second in the Chester Cup under top weight. Donald McCain had the first two home with Ile De Re passing overturn just under 2 furlongs out under Jim Crowley.
The Jumpers seemed to dominate the week with Donald McCain also training the hurdler Absinthe to win the first race on Thursday in the hands of ex jump jockey Graham Lee. Lee went on to score a double that day with a later winner. But in a hope that all race meetings will be on come Saturday morning we shall crack on with the weekends racing.
Ascot - 2:50
One of the races that will be on today on the straight course and a competitive one with the ground being so testing. MOONE'S MY NAME looks the likely favourite, she is a rapidly improving filly but she has never encountered ground like this. With that being a massive gamble on whether she handles today others are easily preferred. CERTRAL ran well on her reappearance at Nottingham but has done all her winning on fast ground, for that reason she isnt fancied to go one better today. The humourously named FORK HANDLES has the burden of carrying top weight, that will be no easy task today with the ground being this soft. She was considered good enough to contest in the Oaks last year but never really figured. If she is able to build on an encouraging reappearance she will go close today and could be the each way value. MAKING EYES was tried in top Handicaps as a three year old but seemed well short in that class. This is a weaker race today but is still hard enough to fancy. DIVERTING was well ahead of Ian Mongan's mount today the last time out at Newmarket. But like many others in the field she is an unknown on the ground and may just struggle to get competitive today. COCHABAMBA was well out of her depth last time behind Penitent at Sandown. She has already had 4 runs this year and in good company, however three of them were on the all weather. In her early two year old days she had some very smart form and looked a useful prospect. If she returns today that today she will be a big player, but its a big if. SHESASTAR must overcome the longest layoff in the field of 248 days. She went well first time out last year and also landed a valuable Fillies Handicap at York last season. Her stamina will have to be proven over the mile trip and that will be no easy task today. IMAGINARY WORLD didnt get home over the mile at Doncaster on soft ground last time but still until the final furlong was bang in contention so must be considered as must RUSSIAN RAVE who has some good form on softer ground but has to prove stamina over the trip on testing ground today. If she does stay then she could be a major player. A trio of 3 year olds go to post today and powerful stables are represented. CHATTERATI carries the lowest weight in the field and Dominic Fox takes off a further three. But all of Mark Johnston's filly's better form is on the polytrack and not on turf therefore has something to prove today. The other two 3 year olds belong to Richard Hannon with FREE VERSE seeming the first string after winning on Softer ground last year in a nursery. She may just need the run today and the selection is the other Hannon horse. MY QUEENIE had a pipe opener at Kempton where she was running on in third under a pretty tender ride from Richard Hughes. She also ran a credible race in a top two year old contest at Goodwood last year. Her only win has come on quick ground but has run well on more testing ground. She will have to improve to win today and should go close.
Ascot - 3:25
Jim Goldie is going for back to back wins in this race with HAWKEYETHENOO who hasn't been seen since fourth Behind PASTORAL PLAYER last year over Course and Distance. Both would need firmer ground to perform to their best today. MABAIT is dropped a furlong in trip today after a disappointing first run for David Simcock he needs firm ground to win and is opposed today. BONNIE BRAE won a competitive handicap at Doncaster in November but may just need this run, Ryan Moore is a very interesting jockey booking for today. KING OF JAZZ ran a cracker on debut for Michael Bell but goes well on better ground. NASRI has some decent form to his name and some of that on softer ground so cant be dismissed easily today, however his last run was on testing ground and left something to be desired. LIGHTNING CLOUD is an ultra consistent type but needs faster ground and is left alone today. ADVANCED is the other Kevin Ryan runner in the race and is an admirable veteran, if he can put his best foot forward he will go close but has place claims at best. EXCELLENT GUEST will have to overcome a long layoff and a career high mark which means improvement will be needed. WHITE FROST is inexperienced compared to others in this field and enjoys softer ground it would be no surprise to see him go well today. FATHSTA has showed form on soft ground before but would be a surprise winner today, although he has been slipping down the weights as of late. GLOBAL VILLAGE is a confirmed mudlark but must overcome a career high mark, if he can overcome that then he will be right there when it counts. BRAE HILL won the Lincoln last time out but performs best on firmer ground and others are preferred. TARIQ TOO is one out of one for Amy Weaver and loves testing ground. He is the selection today after winning his last two and being a fast improving horse. Id be surprised if he isnt at least placed.
Haydock - 3:50
It's a shame that winner of the last two years isn't in it as Eradicate seems to come into his own in this race each year. Nicky Henderson is still very strong handed in this race with 3 fancied horses. LIFESTYLE looks to be the most fancied one off top weight but after seeing her in the flesh, id have my doubts that she can carry top weight in a handicap like this as she is very small framed. PETIT ROBIN has struggled since coming back from injury and is best watched right now. The last of the Henderson trio is ALL THE ACES who disappointed when i fancied him last time at Aintree. He will appreciate the softer ground today though. SAPHIR RIVER has form on soft ground in France and improved at Aintree from his fall at Cheltenham. He has to be in with a chance today. ARAB LEAGUE is in good form with himself and seems to improve on soft ground, Frances Hayes gets on very well with him and it would be no surprise were he good enough to win today. IFYOULETMEFINISH was outpaced the whole time in the County Hurdle, the softer ground will ensure he has enough pace today and id fancy he will get on with soft ground. DOUBLE ROSS was beaten two and a half lengths by Cinders and Ashes on bottomless ground over course and distance. He could go well off a low weight today. PAINTBALL won the Imperial Cup really well then disappointed at Aintree when fancied to follow up. He is best watched right now as it remains a thought that his win at Sandown is a flash in the pan. Darryl Jacob is a positive jockey booking. DREAM ESTEEM is improving this year and loves softer ground, both of David Pipe's should go well today. CHARM SCHOOL is a tough horse but may come up short today. SECRET EDGE stays further but has had some tough races as of late and they may catch up with him today. Real place claims though. UBI ACE has disappointed on two runs since switching to Jonjo O'Neill but on his day is very talented, a return to his best will put him right there at the end. The selection today is DREAMBROOK LADY who travelled well into the race last time at Cheltenham behind Une Artiste on softer ground but was hampered before the turn for home and could never quicken afterwards. She looks very well handicapped today and Nick Scholfield prefers her to the other Jeremy Scott runner.
Nap - Dreambrook Lady
NB - My Queenie
But id just like to say that there really isnt much between the three selections and i fancy all three fairly strongly.
As always Happy Punting. I usually try and put up some ante post selections on my twitter account, if you dont follow me but would like to its @lukeyboy1325
Have a Good day
The Jumpers seemed to dominate the week with Donald McCain also training the hurdler Absinthe to win the first race on Thursday in the hands of ex jump jockey Graham Lee. Lee went on to score a double that day with a later winner. But in a hope that all race meetings will be on come Saturday morning we shall crack on with the weekends racing.
Ascot - 2:50
One of the races that will be on today on the straight course and a competitive one with the ground being so testing. MOONE'S MY NAME looks the likely favourite, she is a rapidly improving filly but she has never encountered ground like this. With that being a massive gamble on whether she handles today others are easily preferred. CERTRAL ran well on her reappearance at Nottingham but has done all her winning on fast ground, for that reason she isnt fancied to go one better today. The humourously named FORK HANDLES has the burden of carrying top weight, that will be no easy task today with the ground being this soft. She was considered good enough to contest in the Oaks last year but never really figured. If she is able to build on an encouraging reappearance she will go close today and could be the each way value. MAKING EYES was tried in top Handicaps as a three year old but seemed well short in that class. This is a weaker race today but is still hard enough to fancy. DIVERTING was well ahead of Ian Mongan's mount today the last time out at Newmarket. But like many others in the field she is an unknown on the ground and may just struggle to get competitive today. COCHABAMBA was well out of her depth last time behind Penitent at Sandown. She has already had 4 runs this year and in good company, however three of them were on the all weather. In her early two year old days she had some very smart form and looked a useful prospect. If she returns today that today she will be a big player, but its a big if. SHESASTAR must overcome the longest layoff in the field of 248 days. She went well first time out last year and also landed a valuable Fillies Handicap at York last season. Her stamina will have to be proven over the mile trip and that will be no easy task today. IMAGINARY WORLD didnt get home over the mile at Doncaster on soft ground last time but still until the final furlong was bang in contention so must be considered as must RUSSIAN RAVE who has some good form on softer ground but has to prove stamina over the trip on testing ground today. If she does stay then she could be a major player. A trio of 3 year olds go to post today and powerful stables are represented. CHATTERATI carries the lowest weight in the field and Dominic Fox takes off a further three. But all of Mark Johnston's filly's better form is on the polytrack and not on turf therefore has something to prove today. The other two 3 year olds belong to Richard Hannon with FREE VERSE seeming the first string after winning on Softer ground last year in a nursery. She may just need the run today and the selection is the other Hannon horse. MY QUEENIE had a pipe opener at Kempton where she was running on in third under a pretty tender ride from Richard Hughes. She also ran a credible race in a top two year old contest at Goodwood last year. Her only win has come on quick ground but has run well on more testing ground. She will have to improve to win today and should go close.
Ascot - 3:25
Jim Goldie is going for back to back wins in this race with HAWKEYETHENOO who hasn't been seen since fourth Behind PASTORAL PLAYER last year over Course and Distance. Both would need firmer ground to perform to their best today. MABAIT is dropped a furlong in trip today after a disappointing first run for David Simcock he needs firm ground to win and is opposed today. BONNIE BRAE won a competitive handicap at Doncaster in November but may just need this run, Ryan Moore is a very interesting jockey booking for today. KING OF JAZZ ran a cracker on debut for Michael Bell but goes well on better ground. NASRI has some decent form to his name and some of that on softer ground so cant be dismissed easily today, however his last run was on testing ground and left something to be desired. LIGHTNING CLOUD is an ultra consistent type but needs faster ground and is left alone today. ADVANCED is the other Kevin Ryan runner in the race and is an admirable veteran, if he can put his best foot forward he will go close but has place claims at best. EXCELLENT GUEST will have to overcome a long layoff and a career high mark which means improvement will be needed. WHITE FROST is inexperienced compared to others in this field and enjoys softer ground it would be no surprise to see him go well today. FATHSTA has showed form on soft ground before but would be a surprise winner today, although he has been slipping down the weights as of late. GLOBAL VILLAGE is a confirmed mudlark but must overcome a career high mark, if he can overcome that then he will be right there when it counts. BRAE HILL won the Lincoln last time out but performs best on firmer ground and others are preferred. TARIQ TOO is one out of one for Amy Weaver and loves testing ground. He is the selection today after winning his last two and being a fast improving horse. Id be surprised if he isnt at least placed.
Haydock - 3:50
It's a shame that winner of the last two years isn't in it as Eradicate seems to come into his own in this race each year. Nicky Henderson is still very strong handed in this race with 3 fancied horses. LIFESTYLE looks to be the most fancied one off top weight but after seeing her in the flesh, id have my doubts that she can carry top weight in a handicap like this as she is very small framed. PETIT ROBIN has struggled since coming back from injury and is best watched right now. The last of the Henderson trio is ALL THE ACES who disappointed when i fancied him last time at Aintree. He will appreciate the softer ground today though. SAPHIR RIVER has form on soft ground in France and improved at Aintree from his fall at Cheltenham. He has to be in with a chance today. ARAB LEAGUE is in good form with himself and seems to improve on soft ground, Frances Hayes gets on very well with him and it would be no surprise were he good enough to win today. IFYOULETMEFINISH was outpaced the whole time in the County Hurdle, the softer ground will ensure he has enough pace today and id fancy he will get on with soft ground. DOUBLE ROSS was beaten two and a half lengths by Cinders and Ashes on bottomless ground over course and distance. He could go well off a low weight today. PAINTBALL won the Imperial Cup really well then disappointed at Aintree when fancied to follow up. He is best watched right now as it remains a thought that his win at Sandown is a flash in the pan. Darryl Jacob is a positive jockey booking. DREAM ESTEEM is improving this year and loves softer ground, both of David Pipe's should go well today. CHARM SCHOOL is a tough horse but may come up short today. SECRET EDGE stays further but has had some tough races as of late and they may catch up with him today. Real place claims though. UBI ACE has disappointed on two runs since switching to Jonjo O'Neill but on his day is very talented, a return to his best will put him right there at the end. The selection today is DREAMBROOK LADY who travelled well into the race last time at Cheltenham behind Une Artiste on softer ground but was hampered before the turn for home and could never quicken afterwards. She looks very well handicapped today and Nick Scholfield prefers her to the other Jeremy Scott runner.
Nap - Dreambrook Lady
NB - My Queenie
But id just like to say that there really isnt much between the three selections and i fancy all three fairly strongly.
As always Happy Punting. I usually try and put up some ante post selections on my twitter account, if you dont follow me but would like to its @lukeyboy1325
Have a Good day
Wednesday, 2 May 2012
Sagaro at Kempton
Wow! how impressive was Sanctuaire at the weekend, I was confident about him winning but who could have expected him to be 25 lengths clear at the first railway fence and beat Somersby easily by 17 lengths. He jumped probably better than any horse I've seen round Sandown gaining a couple of lengths at each fence over his rivals. All I can say is that the Champion Chase next year is going to be an unbelievable race, Sanctuaire tearing off in front with Sprinter Sacre getting the lead in and Finian's Rainbow trying to get them late. But surely its too early to get excited about Cheltenham, is it?
But onto today's racing and Ascot was Abandoned which means the Sagaro is transferred to Kempton instead, a fairly high class field tackles the race, even with 6 runners in there.
3:45
ELECTROLYSER popped up in a good race at Nottingham last time out to end his 3 year losing spell. Even in that winless run he was still running well consistently and it will be interesting to see if he has turned a corner in his career. He may just be playing for the minor prize money. Both him and RED CADEAUX carry penalties and must give 3 pounds to the others who are all 4 year olds. The latter has been running well all round the world lately when getting touched off by Dunaden in the Melbourne Cup and coming 3rd behind the same horse in the Hong Kong Vase. He has come placed here on this surface but that form wouldn't be strong enough to win a race of this standard. Saying that he has been running well lately and if the break has freshened him up he should go close. SOLAR SKY is the lowest rated in the field but is by no stretch of the imagination out of it. He was 2nd behind Namibian in the Queens Vase at Ascot last year and was staying on behind ELECTROLYSER last time out over a shorter trip, this looks ideal today. He will have to improve however. COLOUR VISION is coming back from a break today and also has his first run for Mahmood Al-Zarooni which can only be a positive. He was third in the Cesarewitch last year and then went on to be 3rd behind Fame and Glory when staying on very strongly on QIPCO Champions day last year. He by far brings the strongest form to the table and a strong run race will suit him down to the ground. BARBICAN returns from an unsuccessful raid in Dubai when he had more in front than behind when beaten soundly by Opinion Poll, on that form the Godolphin runner holds him however Darryl Holland's mount has won at Kempton before and clearly has no problem with the fibresand. I just feel that there are horses more open to improvement int his field and he could struggle today. One of them more open to improvement is the selection today which is THIMAAR who is a dual winner over the distance and also a course and distance winner. That course and distance win came last time out when he beat Gulf Of Naples early last month. Them two were well clear of their opponents that day and both look good horses. I was impressed with how well he stayed on for Paul Hanagan and the race looks sure to set up to his strengths today. The way I see the race panning out is Electrolyser and Barbican making the running and possibly cutting each others throats with Thimaar settled in behind. He should be able to pick them up turning for home and his stamina can kick in with Solar Sky and Colour Vision coming late but not getting there. THIMAAR to win the Sagaro.
I know last week I said I will be trying to put a blog up each day and I was trying to stick with that but there have been things going on and haven't been able to update them. I will be trying to update the blog more often and I may even try and get a couple of jockey interviews if possible.
Happy punting as always :)
But onto today's racing and Ascot was Abandoned which means the Sagaro is transferred to Kempton instead, a fairly high class field tackles the race, even with 6 runners in there.
3:45
ELECTROLYSER popped up in a good race at Nottingham last time out to end his 3 year losing spell. Even in that winless run he was still running well consistently and it will be interesting to see if he has turned a corner in his career. He may just be playing for the minor prize money. Both him and RED CADEAUX carry penalties and must give 3 pounds to the others who are all 4 year olds. The latter has been running well all round the world lately when getting touched off by Dunaden in the Melbourne Cup and coming 3rd behind the same horse in the Hong Kong Vase. He has come placed here on this surface but that form wouldn't be strong enough to win a race of this standard. Saying that he has been running well lately and if the break has freshened him up he should go close. SOLAR SKY is the lowest rated in the field but is by no stretch of the imagination out of it. He was 2nd behind Namibian in the Queens Vase at Ascot last year and was staying on behind ELECTROLYSER last time out over a shorter trip, this looks ideal today. He will have to improve however. COLOUR VISION is coming back from a break today and also has his first run for Mahmood Al-Zarooni which can only be a positive. He was third in the Cesarewitch last year and then went on to be 3rd behind Fame and Glory when staying on very strongly on QIPCO Champions day last year. He by far brings the strongest form to the table and a strong run race will suit him down to the ground. BARBICAN returns from an unsuccessful raid in Dubai when he had more in front than behind when beaten soundly by Opinion Poll, on that form the Godolphin runner holds him however Darryl Holland's mount has won at Kempton before and clearly has no problem with the fibresand. I just feel that there are horses more open to improvement int his field and he could struggle today. One of them more open to improvement is the selection today which is THIMAAR who is a dual winner over the distance and also a course and distance winner. That course and distance win came last time out when he beat Gulf Of Naples early last month. Them two were well clear of their opponents that day and both look good horses. I was impressed with how well he stayed on for Paul Hanagan and the race looks sure to set up to his strengths today. The way I see the race panning out is Electrolyser and Barbican making the running and possibly cutting each others throats with Thimaar settled in behind. He should be able to pick them up turning for home and his stamina can kick in with Solar Sky and Colour Vision coming late but not getting there. THIMAAR to win the Sagaro.
I know last week I said I will be trying to put a blog up each day and I was trying to stick with that but there have been things going on and haven't been able to update them. I will be trying to update the blog more often and I may even try and get a couple of jockey interviews if possible.
Happy punting as always :)
Saturday, 18 February 2012
18th February - Ascot
Yesterday saw one of the most impressive performances of the year in Sprinter Sacre winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. He broke the track record on the bridle and shouts of going to the champion chase have been heard. His stable mate Long Run also recorded a pre-festival victory when winning the Denman chase, albeit not convincing. He has been eased in the betting for the Gold Cup in March and is now Joint Favourites with Kauto Star. Its good to see class racing back on a Saturday afternoon after the weather took a turn for the worst two weeks ago. Today the National Hunt action comes from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton.
Ascot - 1:15
KEYS is a short priced favourite for this affair today and if he wants to book his Cheltenham ticket today is the day for him. Just the one start over hurdles so far in which he was beaten by Cinders and Ashes (tipped below for the Supreme Novices). He will most likely come on for that run and should take all the beating here. SAINT ROQUE is sure to improve for his first run at Hereford, Market support should be interesting for this one from the Paul Nicholls yard, but he could find one too good in Nicky Henderson's charge. If you can forgive DENALI HIGHWAY'S second run at Ascot he looks over priced after beating some useful horses at Uttoxeter first time out. BOLD HENRY will probably be the each way selection for many people after an encouraging debut at Ludlow and being the choice of Richard Johnson. If SUPER DUTY is none the worse for his fall at Ayr then he should be the one to take the favourite closest here. He was 3 out of 3 before his fall but he was looking vulnerable when falling. This ground will suit him alot more. THE LAST NIGHT came 3rd at Huntingdon in a very hot race first time out, any improvement from that should see him go close with Noel Fehily on board today. But its hard to see past the favourite KEYS who looks a very useful Novice and should open his account today. THE LAST NIGHT for each way punters.
Ascot 1:50
A race that seems to revolve around the top two in the race. BOBS WORTH was behind Grand Crus and opponent SILVINIACO CONTI last time in the Feltham but before that won his only Chase beating Cue Card on the line. It has seemed so far in his Chasing career that he isnt as talented over fences as he was over hurdles, saying that he open to improvement. the latter mentioned was 3 lengths ahead of his market rival in the Feltham and only considerable improvement from BOBS WORTH should see the form reversed today. ALFIE SPINNER has taken well to chasing but you would imagine he would find these too good today and should only be playing for minor money. BAILE ANRAI was well held behind SILVINIACO CONTI when these two met previously when he fell. That was his first Chase however and before that he was 2nd in the Persian War at Chepstow (6 lengths behind Fingal Bay). Im going to take a chance with INVICTUS today though in a hope that 3 miles will bring out more improvement in him. Ran at Cheltenham last time and never really fell in love with the course leading to a few mistakes. Ascot looks more like a course he will thrive at if he can get galloping. INVICTUS to spoil the party for the big two.
2:25 Ascot
THE MINACK has been a much improved horse this year and for his exertions he has to run off a mark of 159 and give lumps of weight away all round here. It could just be that he is a very good horse but today could be the day the handicapper gets him finally. CHANCE DU ROY is upped to three miles today after disappointing in his last two runs, before that he won a hot contest at Newbury on Hennessy day. If you take that form straight then CRESCENT ISLAND should be ahead of Phillip Hobbs' horse on the line but he does have a mind of his own and can make the jockey look very foolish at times, one to back with caution. On his day he a very useful horse though. PENNY MAX has taken a forward in his career but has been raised 21 pounds for his two wins, there should be more to come from him but i think his best claims today are for a place. PEARLYSTEPS is an admirable horse and always runs his heart out, today may just be too much for him and he does perform best in bottomless conditions. HELL'S BAY has been tumbling down the weights since his return but there is a reason for that, when putting his best foot forward he is a very useful animal but hasnt shown that since his return from injury. Brendan Powell's 5 pound claim can only help. MASSINI'S MAGUIRE hated conditions last time and was pulled up at this track, the going today will be much more in his favour however and should go close. CAPPA BLEU once looked to have the world at his feet but has failed to shine since his foxhunters win, he runs off the same mark he did when 3rd in the Welsh National today and after a short break looks sure to go well. I'm going to side with the Twiston-Davies horse today though in VIKING BLOND who last time didnt enjoy the ground in the Welsh National and was rightly pulled up by Sam Twiston Davies. After a busy start to the year he has been given a break to freshen him up and should be ready to go this time round. A stamina laden front runner round Ascot is usually not a bad thing and he may be able to pound a few of these into submission under his low weight. VIKING BLOND is the selection
3:00 - Ascot
The main race of the day is the Ascot Chase and there has been alot of money for RIVERSIDE THEATRE who comes of a long lay off after being seen last in this race 12 months ago. Before that he was second to Long Run in the King George which is very strong form. Fitness is a worry and for that reason we shall take him on today. At Sandown it looked as if KAUTO STONE was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when second in the Tingle Creek, he gets his wish today. He should right in the firing line as they turn for home and could just get home in front, but he isnt proven at this level (could be a bit unfair) and is opposed today. IMSINGINGTHEBLUES and TATENEN both love Ascot but shouldnt be good enough to land a blow today. GAUVAIN is back over his best trip today after falling in the Victor Chandler last time out. He won the Peterborough on the back of a fall at Sandown and could go close again this time. He was soundly beaten last year in this contest but the ground is right for him this time round and should be able to ruffle a few feathers among the main protagonists. MEDERMIT is another horse who is better over this trip but i fear that he may not be good enough to win this race, but looks set to run another big race for connections. I'm taking a big gamble today on my selection in LITTLE JOSH who ran a lovely race last time out in the Argento at Cheltenham but just faded late on, this is due to the long lay off and the fact he probably doesnt stay 3 miles. This is by far his strongest trip and there is another big race in him somewhere. Sam Twiston Davies has been excited to get back on him over this trip after the Argento and the Big Bold front runner can make his presence felt here today.
3:35 - Ascot
We did well yesterday in the big handicap hurdle with Get me out of here running an unlucky second at Newbury. A few chasers reverting back to Hurdles here, namely CRACK AWAY JACK, EMMASLEGEND and SARANDO the last mentioned was second to Quito De La Roque at Aintree last year but hasnt followed through his potential this term. You would imagine connections have a longer term target in mind and are trying to protect his handicap mark over fences and is avoided today. CRACK AWAY JACK is undoubtedly a better hurdler than a chaser, his fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle being the stand out form. He may just be a tad high in the weights right now but would be no surprise at all to see him get a place. MOUNTAINOUS has been really well in himself but goes better on softer ground it seems. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote after being a huge gamble and more market support will only be in her favour today. She may just find it a bit tough to win today however under a higher mark and an arguably tougher field. SMAD PLACE won well first time out this year at this course and looked to have improved no end, he looks a tad vulnerable under his big weight today and it would be impressive should he win today. ART PROFESSOR is a fragile horse but has been running well this year without reward, he is only off a one pound higher mark today and should be thereabouts again. DUNRAVEN STORM was once a very exciting Novice but since his second to Cue Card he has been very disappointing and it would be a surprise to see him bounce back to form today. ORZARE ran well behind SMAD PLACE here last time and would have been closer for a bad mistake at the last, he gets a bit more weight than last time but that still shouldnt be enough to help him win. Preference today is for the Same team that got us the 20/1 second yesterday, the team of Jonjo O'Neill, JP McManus and Maurice Linehan. EASTLAKE is the horse today and looked badly in need of the run in the Lanzarote hurdle after turning for home travelling strongly and just emptied out, backed off the boards after pricewise put it up this morning is now generally 8/1 best price after being bigger in the morning. Would be no surprise to see Ruby and Maurice fight out the finish again but today the team from Jack Daws should get on top.
4:10 - Ascot
HAZY TOM was disappointing last time but the ground could be seen as an excuse for that and conditions today will be more up his street, he still has to prove himself at this level for me so im going to swerve him today. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE has been running well but tipped up last time when going away at the last hurdle, he seems to be progressing nicely in his career and should be one of the main threats in this race. Preference here is for BALDER SUCCES who is unbeaten so far and looks like a very nice prospect for the future, i would be surprised if he should fail to get home in front today. The top three arent separated by much and it should be an intriguing race in store.
Ascot - 1:15
KEYS is a short priced favourite for this affair today and if he wants to book his Cheltenham ticket today is the day for him. Just the one start over hurdles so far in which he was beaten by Cinders and Ashes (tipped below for the Supreme Novices). He will most likely come on for that run and should take all the beating here. SAINT ROQUE is sure to improve for his first run at Hereford, Market support should be interesting for this one from the Paul Nicholls yard, but he could find one too good in Nicky Henderson's charge. If you can forgive DENALI HIGHWAY'S second run at Ascot he looks over priced after beating some useful horses at Uttoxeter first time out. BOLD HENRY will probably be the each way selection for many people after an encouraging debut at Ludlow and being the choice of Richard Johnson. If SUPER DUTY is none the worse for his fall at Ayr then he should be the one to take the favourite closest here. He was 3 out of 3 before his fall but he was looking vulnerable when falling. This ground will suit him alot more. THE LAST NIGHT came 3rd at Huntingdon in a very hot race first time out, any improvement from that should see him go close with Noel Fehily on board today. But its hard to see past the favourite KEYS who looks a very useful Novice and should open his account today. THE LAST NIGHT for each way punters.
Ascot 1:50
A race that seems to revolve around the top two in the race. BOBS WORTH was behind Grand Crus and opponent SILVINIACO CONTI last time in the Feltham but before that won his only Chase beating Cue Card on the line. It has seemed so far in his Chasing career that he isnt as talented over fences as he was over hurdles, saying that he open to improvement. the latter mentioned was 3 lengths ahead of his market rival in the Feltham and only considerable improvement from BOBS WORTH should see the form reversed today. ALFIE SPINNER has taken well to chasing but you would imagine he would find these too good today and should only be playing for minor money. BAILE ANRAI was well held behind SILVINIACO CONTI when these two met previously when he fell. That was his first Chase however and before that he was 2nd in the Persian War at Chepstow (6 lengths behind Fingal Bay). Im going to take a chance with INVICTUS today though in a hope that 3 miles will bring out more improvement in him. Ran at Cheltenham last time and never really fell in love with the course leading to a few mistakes. Ascot looks more like a course he will thrive at if he can get galloping. INVICTUS to spoil the party for the big two.
2:25 Ascot
THE MINACK has been a much improved horse this year and for his exertions he has to run off a mark of 159 and give lumps of weight away all round here. It could just be that he is a very good horse but today could be the day the handicapper gets him finally. CHANCE DU ROY is upped to three miles today after disappointing in his last two runs, before that he won a hot contest at Newbury on Hennessy day. If you take that form straight then CRESCENT ISLAND should be ahead of Phillip Hobbs' horse on the line but he does have a mind of his own and can make the jockey look very foolish at times, one to back with caution. On his day he a very useful horse though. PENNY MAX has taken a forward in his career but has been raised 21 pounds for his two wins, there should be more to come from him but i think his best claims today are for a place. PEARLYSTEPS is an admirable horse and always runs his heart out, today may just be too much for him and he does perform best in bottomless conditions. HELL'S BAY has been tumbling down the weights since his return but there is a reason for that, when putting his best foot forward he is a very useful animal but hasnt shown that since his return from injury. Brendan Powell's 5 pound claim can only help. MASSINI'S MAGUIRE hated conditions last time and was pulled up at this track, the going today will be much more in his favour however and should go close. CAPPA BLEU once looked to have the world at his feet but has failed to shine since his foxhunters win, he runs off the same mark he did when 3rd in the Welsh National today and after a short break looks sure to go well. I'm going to side with the Twiston-Davies horse today though in VIKING BLOND who last time didnt enjoy the ground in the Welsh National and was rightly pulled up by Sam Twiston Davies. After a busy start to the year he has been given a break to freshen him up and should be ready to go this time round. A stamina laden front runner round Ascot is usually not a bad thing and he may be able to pound a few of these into submission under his low weight. VIKING BLOND is the selection
3:00 - Ascot
The main race of the day is the Ascot Chase and there has been alot of money for RIVERSIDE THEATRE who comes of a long lay off after being seen last in this race 12 months ago. Before that he was second to Long Run in the King George which is very strong form. Fitness is a worry and for that reason we shall take him on today. At Sandown it looked as if KAUTO STONE was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when second in the Tingle Creek, he gets his wish today. He should right in the firing line as they turn for home and could just get home in front, but he isnt proven at this level (could be a bit unfair) and is opposed today. IMSINGINGTHEBLUES and TATENEN both love Ascot but shouldnt be good enough to land a blow today. GAUVAIN is back over his best trip today after falling in the Victor Chandler last time out. He won the Peterborough on the back of a fall at Sandown and could go close again this time. He was soundly beaten last year in this contest but the ground is right for him this time round and should be able to ruffle a few feathers among the main protagonists. MEDERMIT is another horse who is better over this trip but i fear that he may not be good enough to win this race, but looks set to run another big race for connections. I'm taking a big gamble today on my selection in LITTLE JOSH who ran a lovely race last time out in the Argento at Cheltenham but just faded late on, this is due to the long lay off and the fact he probably doesnt stay 3 miles. This is by far his strongest trip and there is another big race in him somewhere. Sam Twiston Davies has been excited to get back on him over this trip after the Argento and the Big Bold front runner can make his presence felt here today.
3:35 - Ascot
We did well yesterday in the big handicap hurdle with Get me out of here running an unlucky second at Newbury. A few chasers reverting back to Hurdles here, namely CRACK AWAY JACK, EMMASLEGEND and SARANDO the last mentioned was second to Quito De La Roque at Aintree last year but hasnt followed through his potential this term. You would imagine connections have a longer term target in mind and are trying to protect his handicap mark over fences and is avoided today. CRACK AWAY JACK is undoubtedly a better hurdler than a chaser, his fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle being the stand out form. He may just be a tad high in the weights right now but would be no surprise at all to see him get a place. MOUNTAINOUS has been really well in himself but goes better on softer ground it seems. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote after being a huge gamble and more market support will only be in her favour today. She may just find it a bit tough to win today however under a higher mark and an arguably tougher field. SMAD PLACE won well first time out this year at this course and looked to have improved no end, he looks a tad vulnerable under his big weight today and it would be impressive should he win today. ART PROFESSOR is a fragile horse but has been running well this year without reward, he is only off a one pound higher mark today and should be thereabouts again. DUNRAVEN STORM was once a very exciting Novice but since his second to Cue Card he has been very disappointing and it would be a surprise to see him bounce back to form today. ORZARE ran well behind SMAD PLACE here last time and would have been closer for a bad mistake at the last, he gets a bit more weight than last time but that still shouldnt be enough to help him win. Preference today is for the Same team that got us the 20/1 second yesterday, the team of Jonjo O'Neill, JP McManus and Maurice Linehan. EASTLAKE is the horse today and looked badly in need of the run in the Lanzarote hurdle after turning for home travelling strongly and just emptied out, backed off the boards after pricewise put it up this morning is now generally 8/1 best price after being bigger in the morning. Would be no surprise to see Ruby and Maurice fight out the finish again but today the team from Jack Daws should get on top.
4:10 - Ascot
HAZY TOM was disappointing last time but the ground could be seen as an excuse for that and conditions today will be more up his street, he still has to prove himself at this level for me so im going to swerve him today. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE has been running well but tipped up last time when going away at the last hurdle, he seems to be progressing nicely in his career and should be one of the main threats in this race. Preference here is for BALDER SUCCES who is unbeaten so far and looks like a very nice prospect for the future, i would be surprised if he should fail to get home in front today. The top three arent separated by much and it should be an intriguing race in store.
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Ascot 21st January
It's Saturday which means one thing, top jumps racing and Victor Chandler day at Ascot has failed to disappoint. Competitive racing throughout the card and a high class 2 Mile Chase in the Victor Chandler itself.
1:00 - James Reveley suffered a bad fall on boxing day leaving him out with concussion but has been riding out of his skin since he has been back, he gets the leg up on sure to be popular ROYALE'S CHARTER. He came second behind Menorah last time out, albeit beaten 13 lengths and but was beaten a very long way out. VINO GRIEGO ran a brilliant race two runs ago at this course when finding just the impressive The Minack too good. It seemed a bad mistake at the second last accounted for his chances. Another run like that will see him go very close. OLDRIK is one that has rekindled his old form winning his last two races very nicely and seems to be heading back in the right direction. TRIOLO D'ALENE has his first run in England today but has won a 4 year old chase at Fontainebleau by three lengths. Im willing to take a chance on ACKERTAC who hasnt sparkled over fences yet but has put in some promising runs most notably first time out when second to Micheal Flips over course and distance. Since then he has been tried over more extreme distances and a return to this distance should see him go well and 11/1 is definitely worth an each way punt.
1:30 - KAPGA DE CERISY'S defection leaves us with a field of three and makes BALDER SUCCES'S chance much easier. Just the one run under rules he won a Novice Hurdle at Plumpton in very taking fashion. CUBAN PIECE gets 4 pounds from the favourite and has won a race at Bangor, but his run last time out would suggest he wont get anywhere near Alan King's horse. It's only fair to mention the other horse in the line-up from the Sheena West yard, BRILLIANT BARCA won a juvenile hurdle at Warwick on good ground but failed to fire at all in a very hot race at chepstow last time out on heavy ground. An easy win for BALDER SUCCES looks on the cards today
2:05 - KENTFORD GREY LADY is a horse going very much in the right direction when cosily landing a competitive mares hurdle at Kempton last time out. She had VIOLIN DAVIS and CLOUDY SPIRIT well behind her that day and its very hard to see either of them two reversing that form with her today. OUR GIRL SALLEY won a class one in Ireland last time and for that she has to carry an extra 5 pounds. She however a very useful individual and is certainly towards the top. Even though she is the top rated in the race and could be even better than her mark suggests. KENTFORD GREY LADY falls under the same category and looks certain to be a better horse than her mark suggests. That's why Emma Lavelle's mare is the selection today.
2:35 - A very competitive hurdle here and co-favourites of four as I write this. One of them is SMAD PLACE who has his first run this season and would be no surprise to see him need the run. Also every time he has been upped to a class 1 it has ended in defeat, but could be a better horse this year. CICERON won nicely at Sandown last time out and its notable that Aidan Coleman isnt here to ride him who he really likes. I get the feeling that his big day this season has come but should be close. SHOREACRES was caught on the line on boxing day by Deireadh Re but it was still a very good performance and its notable that Barry Geraghty gets the leg up today. A BRIDGE TOO FAR always seems to find one too good and may be best swerved today until he shows a real winning attitude, although he has won before. PATEESE would have appreciated softer going and its hard to see him having a solid chance today. My selection is Nicky Henderson's JOSEPH LISTER who has 10 pounds taken off by very useful claimer Gary Derwin who won on him last time at Huntingdon. He didnt beat much that day but it was only his third run and will come on leaps and bounds for that.
3:10 - A race that revolves around the top two AL FEROF and FINIAN'S RAINBOW. The latter won the Desert Orchid chase last time out at Kempton in very impressive style and it looks like he will take all the beating and is my NAP of the day. With AL FEROF It's hard to see a novice winning a Victor Chandler especially with only two runs over fences under his belt. He won the Henry 8th Novice Chase at Ascot last time battling off For Non Stop who failed to frank the form next time out when beaten by Cue Card. the form from that race isnt the strongest and definitely not up to a race of this standard. FORPADYDEPLASTERER is an admirable sort and always runs his race but finds winning hard to come by. GAUVAIN doesnt look as good over 2 miles as 2 and a half and should come up short again here. WISHFULL THINKING was beaten by our selection last time out and with doubt's in the hobbs camp about him it is hard to see him reversing the form today. SOMERSBY doesnt look fast enough in a finish anymore for a 2 miler and his future surely lies over longer trips.
3:45 - My NB today is Martin Keighley's ALL FOR FREE who looked as if he was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when staying on like a train last time out at Sandown and he still gets in at a very low weight. TATENEN enjoys it round here but is very temperamental and if on a going day could win this race with ease (remember he was once sent off favourite for an Arkle). ZAYNAR falls under the same category and looked back to his best when winning last time out at this course but isnt sure to get his own way out in front today. NOLAND is dropped in trip after a valiant effort in the Lexus behind Synchronised but a return to his very best will see him take all the beating while the handicapper looks to have caught RENARD now. HECTOR'S CHOICE ran a very good race at Cheltenham last time behind Calgary Bay, a repeat of that will surely see another positive outcome. ALL FOR FREE is the very strong selection though.
4:20 - A Novice hurdle that is headed by Nicky Henderson's HADRIAN'S APPROACH who won here first time out while being very green, he will come on for that run and should take all the beating. GROVE PRIDE has run well in all his runs so far but is yet to get his head in front. THE PRETENDER is from the Paul Nicholls yard and should come on for his first run when sixth at Warwick. BE ALL MAN was behind Joseph Lister last time out and is considered especially if Joseph Lister runs well.
NAP - Finian's rainbow
NB - All for free
1:00 - James Reveley suffered a bad fall on boxing day leaving him out with concussion but has been riding out of his skin since he has been back, he gets the leg up on sure to be popular ROYALE'S CHARTER. He came second behind Menorah last time out, albeit beaten 13 lengths and but was beaten a very long way out. VINO GRIEGO ran a brilliant race two runs ago at this course when finding just the impressive The Minack too good. It seemed a bad mistake at the second last accounted for his chances. Another run like that will see him go very close. OLDRIK is one that has rekindled his old form winning his last two races very nicely and seems to be heading back in the right direction. TRIOLO D'ALENE has his first run in England today but has won a 4 year old chase at Fontainebleau by three lengths. Im willing to take a chance on ACKERTAC who hasnt sparkled over fences yet but has put in some promising runs most notably first time out when second to Micheal Flips over course and distance. Since then he has been tried over more extreme distances and a return to this distance should see him go well and 11/1 is definitely worth an each way punt.
1:30 - KAPGA DE CERISY'S defection leaves us with a field of three and makes BALDER SUCCES'S chance much easier. Just the one run under rules he won a Novice Hurdle at Plumpton in very taking fashion. CUBAN PIECE gets 4 pounds from the favourite and has won a race at Bangor, but his run last time out would suggest he wont get anywhere near Alan King's horse. It's only fair to mention the other horse in the line-up from the Sheena West yard, BRILLIANT BARCA won a juvenile hurdle at Warwick on good ground but failed to fire at all in a very hot race at chepstow last time out on heavy ground. An easy win for BALDER SUCCES looks on the cards today
2:05 - KENTFORD GREY LADY is a horse going very much in the right direction when cosily landing a competitive mares hurdle at Kempton last time out. She had VIOLIN DAVIS and CLOUDY SPIRIT well behind her that day and its very hard to see either of them two reversing that form with her today. OUR GIRL SALLEY won a class one in Ireland last time and for that she has to carry an extra 5 pounds. She however a very useful individual and is certainly towards the top. Even though she is the top rated in the race and could be even better than her mark suggests. KENTFORD GREY LADY falls under the same category and looks certain to be a better horse than her mark suggests. That's why Emma Lavelle's mare is the selection today.
2:35 - A very competitive hurdle here and co-favourites of four as I write this. One of them is SMAD PLACE who has his first run this season and would be no surprise to see him need the run. Also every time he has been upped to a class 1 it has ended in defeat, but could be a better horse this year. CICERON won nicely at Sandown last time out and its notable that Aidan Coleman isnt here to ride him who he really likes. I get the feeling that his big day this season has come but should be close. SHOREACRES was caught on the line on boxing day by Deireadh Re but it was still a very good performance and its notable that Barry Geraghty gets the leg up today. A BRIDGE TOO FAR always seems to find one too good and may be best swerved today until he shows a real winning attitude, although he has won before. PATEESE would have appreciated softer going and its hard to see him having a solid chance today. My selection is Nicky Henderson's JOSEPH LISTER who has 10 pounds taken off by very useful claimer Gary Derwin who won on him last time at Huntingdon. He didnt beat much that day but it was only his third run and will come on leaps and bounds for that.
3:10 - A race that revolves around the top two AL FEROF and FINIAN'S RAINBOW. The latter won the Desert Orchid chase last time out at Kempton in very impressive style and it looks like he will take all the beating and is my NAP of the day. With AL FEROF It's hard to see a novice winning a Victor Chandler especially with only two runs over fences under his belt. He won the Henry 8th Novice Chase at Ascot last time battling off For Non Stop who failed to frank the form next time out when beaten by Cue Card. the form from that race isnt the strongest and definitely not up to a race of this standard. FORPADYDEPLASTERER is an admirable sort and always runs his race but finds winning hard to come by. GAUVAIN doesnt look as good over 2 miles as 2 and a half and should come up short again here. WISHFULL THINKING was beaten by our selection last time out and with doubt's in the hobbs camp about him it is hard to see him reversing the form today. SOMERSBY doesnt look fast enough in a finish anymore for a 2 miler and his future surely lies over longer trips.
3:45 - My NB today is Martin Keighley's ALL FOR FREE who looked as if he was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when staying on like a train last time out at Sandown and he still gets in at a very low weight. TATENEN enjoys it round here but is very temperamental and if on a going day could win this race with ease (remember he was once sent off favourite for an Arkle). ZAYNAR falls under the same category and looked back to his best when winning last time out at this course but isnt sure to get his own way out in front today. NOLAND is dropped in trip after a valiant effort in the Lexus behind Synchronised but a return to his very best will see him take all the beating while the handicapper looks to have caught RENARD now. HECTOR'S CHOICE ran a very good race at Cheltenham last time behind Calgary Bay, a repeat of that will surely see another positive outcome. ALL FOR FREE is the very strong selection though.
4:20 - A Novice hurdle that is headed by Nicky Henderson's HADRIAN'S APPROACH who won here first time out while being very green, he will come on for that run and should take all the beating. GROVE PRIDE has run well in all his runs so far but is yet to get his head in front. THE PRETENDER is from the Paul Nicholls yard and should come on for his first run when sixth at Warwick. BE ALL MAN was behind Joseph Lister last time out and is considered especially if Joseph Lister runs well.
NAP - Finian's rainbow
NB - All for free
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