I write this after returning from our yearly staff party, in the raffle the top prize was a 42 inch flat screen TV. Of course I won bath soaps (passion fruit) some cheese and wine. Please form an orderly queue to take a bath with smelly cheese and white wine with yours truly.
Onto more pressing matters and a cracking day of racing at Ascot and hopefully Haydock. Lets start shall we?
1:30 Ascot - Cedre Bleu
Paul Nicholls is without Big Bucks this week, but Cedre Bleu can claim some slight compensation here. The soft ground wont hinder him in the slightest and is still relatively unexposed over fences. He had a nice pipe opener at Newbury last time when a very close fourth under top weight. Today he should build on that with Ruby back on board and everything seemingly in his favour, including 7 pounds from rival Solix. Ian Williams' Gelding is useful in his own right, but cant be trusted in the jumping department. Therefore a very confident vote goes to Cedre Bleu. (6/4)
1:45 Haydock - Bakbenscher
Choc Thornton is at Ascot to ride Balder Succes today, Wayne Hutchinson fills in for today however and is more than capable. Bakbenscher was beaten a long way last time, but there is more to it than meets the eye. He was almost bought down on 3 occasions and recovered each time, he was bang in contention turning for home, but tired. Previously he had run well at Chepstow and a line can be put through his Newbury run. So long as the meeting is on today he will enjoy the ground and must have a good chance. The presence of Hollow Tree means he runs off of lower than 11 stone which could be vital in this ground. (8/1)
2:00 Ascot - Master Of The Hall
Barry Geraghty shuns Master Of The Hall here for stable mate Cucumber run. AP is far from a stranger to this horse though after riding on debut and over fences at Kelso. He reverts back to hurdles today and with no Big Buck's lining up, its a wide open contest. 2010 was his last run over hurdles but in truth he looks like more of the hurdling type and should show well. The ground isn't a worry either with multiple wins on soft ground and has proved himself over the distance, Including a chase win at This track. On seasonal reappearance he was well put in his place by Silviniaco Conti, but he should strip fitter for that run and the form is red hot from the race. On that form he could prove the one to be with and is fantastic each way value. (8/1)
2:15 Haydock - Douglas Julian
Sue Smith has planned this race for Douglas Julian since his Kelso win a fortnight ago. The heavy ground has come that she wanted and there is alot in his favour, staying power being one of them. The mix of staying power and a low weight could be lethal here, Jonathan England takes a further 7 pounds off his back and is better than your average claimer. There are alot of dangers in the race but Douglas Julian could well be good enough to land the Tommy Whittle. (7/1)
2:35 Ascot - Hey Big Spender
Colin Tizzard's charge was fancied in the Peterborough which has been abandoned twice this season. He has always been a sound jumper but one mistake seems to hold him back here and then, a clear round will see him round in front today. His trainer went on record as saying he is a stone better in heavy ground, which would make it seem as if he needs this ground. Others may struggle in it here. The only negative is that he is second top weight and must give alot away to the others. He still represents good value however and should take some beating on seasonal debut. (4/1)
3:10 Ascot - Olofi
Olofi was a pretty impressive winner last time out at Cheltenham on testing ground. Paddy Brennan once again takes the ride and an 8 pound rise in the weights shouldnt be enough hold him back. Tom George gave a positive write up in the Racing Post about Olofi this week and early money is key to him. Though there are a number of unexposed types in the field, yet he could still have a shade more improvement in him. Olofi is taken to land the odds today in the Ladbroke. (9/1)
Bothy - He was behind Olofi at Cheltenham and has since gone on to run well for a long way in the Fighting Fifth behind Countrywide Flame. That is top form but he was well beat in truth. The most interesting part about his run here today is regular jockey Danny Cook is at Haydock. Seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett takes the ride instead, putting him on a more than winable mark. Bothy is always a horse to follow on testing ground, which is why he is an each way selection today at glamorous odds. (28/1)
As im writing this Haydock has been given the green light, so lets look forward to a big day and many winners.
Happy Punting
Showing posts with label maguire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label maguire. Show all posts
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
Sue Smith Appreciation Day 2
Well Frankel couldn't have been more impressive on his return and is now rated 138. This just confirms his status as the best racehorse in the world and begs the question, who can beat him? Thought Worthy was given a mention on the blog and he won at 15/8 though I hardly count that as a tip worthy price. The main selection was the Richard Hannon trained Poetic Lord and it was clear he was severely lacking in race fitness but showed up well for a long way. He will be one to stick with throughout the season and should go very well next time out.
But in more recent times I have been flying however that means nothing as they have not been on the blog. On Monday Tony McCoy landed a four timer at Newton Abbot which paid well in a Lucky 15. But for today as you can tell it's a Sue Smith Day. On we go.
6:30 - Sedgefield - Fill The Power - One that could never get competitive at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett but earlier in the season had some smart form. The main part of that form is when he landed a grade 2 at Newcastle in November, he went from the front the whole way that time and galloped on relentlessly. He was considered good enough to contest in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He was probably outclassed that day and also got a bit stuck in the mud. This looks to be an ideal race for him to open up his account over fences, chasing looks set to be his game in relation to his size. As long as he can jump a fence he will take all the beating today in a possibly weak looking chase. Ryan Mania takes the ride who is the number one jockey for the Sue Smith yard.
7:30 - Sedgefield - Alba King - Last time out his hat trick attempt was flawed when possibly the ground went against him, he still ran a blinder that day to come second. This race looks a lot easier for him today and the ground will be much more in his favour. He is up 20 pounds for his last win but ran into a fast improving horse in Hi Dancer last time, he was still clear of the rest of the field that day. With Jonathan England taking off a more than valuable 7 pounds he is taken to make amends for fluffing his lines last time with a win today.
8:00 - Sedgefield - Kent Street - He didn't get too far on his chasing debut after flying the first fence then being too brave at the second and landing on the fence. Ryan Mania made an outstanding recovery when at one point being on one side of his mount. He regained balance but the saddle had slipped right round at that point but there was no point in continuing and pulled up before the 3rd. He will have learnt a lot from that outing and chasing does look his game. Shane Byrne gets the leg up on him today which is a huge bonus as he rides chasers probably better than he rides hurdlers. In my mind he is up there with the best at presenting a horse to a fence. Hopefully i'm not tempting fate here.
9:00 - Sedgefield - Grate Fella - Only one appearance to his name but it was a more than encouraging one when finishing third at Market Rasen. He should come on leaps and bounds for that experience and should take some beating in this field at a decent enough price. Even though the Donald McCain horse looks a worthy opponent today and these two should have it between them. Should be thereabouts when it counts on the line.
Also one more mention before I close up today's blog, Jason Maguire has two rides up at Sedgefield today and both of them should win and could pay a nice double.
6:00 - Sud Pacifique - He was considered good enough to take on Grumeti on his hurdling debut but went out like a light when quietly fancied by connections. He will be much better for that run and this highly rated flat performer should take all the beating in this race. It would be a shock were he defeated today in the opener.
7:00 - Beeves - he won his first race under rules nicely but on bottomless ground at Hexham, this is a different kettle of fish today but the result should be no different. Before joining the McCain yard he was already a Point to Point winner so should have no troubles on his hurdling debut here.
That is it for today. As always Happy Punting and I hope you get some winners.
But in more recent times I have been flying however that means nothing as they have not been on the blog. On Monday Tony McCoy landed a four timer at Newton Abbot which paid well in a Lucky 15. But for today as you can tell it's a Sue Smith Day. On we go.
6:30 - Sedgefield - Fill The Power - One that could never get competitive at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett but earlier in the season had some smart form. The main part of that form is when he landed a grade 2 at Newcastle in November, he went from the front the whole way that time and galloped on relentlessly. He was considered good enough to contest in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He was probably outclassed that day and also got a bit stuck in the mud. This looks to be an ideal race for him to open up his account over fences, chasing looks set to be his game in relation to his size. As long as he can jump a fence he will take all the beating today in a possibly weak looking chase. Ryan Mania takes the ride who is the number one jockey for the Sue Smith yard.
7:30 - Sedgefield - Alba King - Last time out his hat trick attempt was flawed when possibly the ground went against him, he still ran a blinder that day to come second. This race looks a lot easier for him today and the ground will be much more in his favour. He is up 20 pounds for his last win but ran into a fast improving horse in Hi Dancer last time, he was still clear of the rest of the field that day. With Jonathan England taking off a more than valuable 7 pounds he is taken to make amends for fluffing his lines last time with a win today.
8:00 - Sedgefield - Kent Street - He didn't get too far on his chasing debut after flying the first fence then being too brave at the second and landing on the fence. Ryan Mania made an outstanding recovery when at one point being on one side of his mount. He regained balance but the saddle had slipped right round at that point but there was no point in continuing and pulled up before the 3rd. He will have learnt a lot from that outing and chasing does look his game. Shane Byrne gets the leg up on him today which is a huge bonus as he rides chasers probably better than he rides hurdlers. In my mind he is up there with the best at presenting a horse to a fence. Hopefully i'm not tempting fate here.
9:00 - Sedgefield - Grate Fella - Only one appearance to his name but it was a more than encouraging one when finishing third at Market Rasen. He should come on leaps and bounds for that experience and should take some beating in this field at a decent enough price. Even though the Donald McCain horse looks a worthy opponent today and these two should have it between them. Should be thereabouts when it counts on the line.
Also one more mention before I close up today's blog, Jason Maguire has two rides up at Sedgefield today and both of them should win and could pay a nice double.
6:00 - Sud Pacifique - He was considered good enough to take on Grumeti on his hurdling debut but went out like a light when quietly fancied by connections. He will be much better for that run and this highly rated flat performer should take all the beating in this race. It would be a shock were he defeated today in the opener.
7:00 - Beeves - he won his first race under rules nicely but on bottomless ground at Hexham, this is a different kettle of fish today but the result should be no different. Before joining the McCain yard he was already a Point to Point winner so should have no troubles on his hurdling debut here.
That is it for today. As always Happy Punting and I hope you get some winners.
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Grand National Day
Today is the Aintree Grand National, the day where the majority of people in the country get involved in a horse race and lay down their 50p each way bets. As ever its a ridiculously tough thing to predict and finding the winner will pay handsomely. Each year I draw a table the night before and judge horses on 8 areas, last year my table helped me find BallaBriggs (1st) Dont Push it (3rd) State of Play (4th) and Surface to air (8th). If i had the same results today as i did last year i will be happy, but these areas are.
- have they won on the ground?
- have they won a race over 3m 2f or further
- have they won a race shorter than 3m 2f
- have they won over 2 and a half miles
- have they won over the national fences
- have they won in the last 2 years
- have they won with the weight on their back today?
- have they won with today's jockey on board
Only one horse fills the criteria today and that is last years winner BallaBriggs.
Horses that fill 7 of the areas :- Black Apalachi, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Mon Mome, Killyglen and Hello Bud
Horses that fill 6 of the areas :- Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Deep Purple, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Organisedconfusion, Vic Venturi, Neptune Equester
Horses that fill 5 of the areas :- Calgary Bay, Junior, Tatenen, According to Pete, On His Own, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, Postmaster, Giles Cross, Midnight Haze.
Horses that fill 4 of the areas :- Planet of Sound, Rare Bob, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, In Compliance, Viking Blond
None fill 3 areas
One horse fills 2 areas :- Becauseicouldntsee
With that all said and done the 4 horses for this year - BallaBriggs, Black Appalachi, Neptune Collonges and Killyglen. Chicago Grey should also run a big race.
I backed Neptune Collonges after his Sandown exploits earlier this year, and after his second at Haydock it occurred to me that he doesnt actually know how to run a bad race and is also a very classy performer. The only areas of my research he missed out on was that he hadnt won over the course (because he hasnt run over the course) and the jockey hasnt won on him (Darryl Jacob hasnt actually ridden him before)
Other bets today are...
1:45 - Aland Islands (very strong each way bet)
2:15 - If you really need a bet in this id go for Sprinter Sacre to beat Australia Day
2:50 - Zarkandar
3:25 - On Borrowed Wings (I cant stress how much of a hard race Chapoturgeon had at Cheltenham, i was watching him after the race and they were having to hold him up afterwards, cant see him winning)
4:15 - Neptune Collonges
5:05 - Dee Ee Williams
5:35 - Population
I hope everyone has a great National day and I hope my blog has helped you find a winner or two to pay for your nights out and weekends.
Happy Punting Everyone
remember to follow me on Twitter @lukeyboy1325
- have they won on the ground?
- have they won a race over 3m 2f or further
- have they won a race shorter than 3m 2f
- have they won over 2 and a half miles
- have they won over the national fences
- have they won in the last 2 years
- have they won with the weight on their back today?
- have they won with today's jockey on board
Only one horse fills the criteria today and that is last years winner BallaBriggs.
Horses that fill 7 of the areas :- Black Apalachi, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Mon Mome, Killyglen and Hello Bud
Horses that fill 6 of the areas :- Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Deep Purple, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Organisedconfusion, Vic Venturi, Neptune Equester
Horses that fill 5 of the areas :- Calgary Bay, Junior, Tatenen, According to Pete, On His Own, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, Postmaster, Giles Cross, Midnight Haze.
Horses that fill 4 of the areas :- Planet of Sound, Rare Bob, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, In Compliance, Viking Blond
None fill 3 areas
One horse fills 2 areas :- Becauseicouldntsee
With that all said and done the 4 horses for this year - BallaBriggs, Black Appalachi, Neptune Collonges and Killyglen. Chicago Grey should also run a big race.
I backed Neptune Collonges after his Sandown exploits earlier this year, and after his second at Haydock it occurred to me that he doesnt actually know how to run a bad race and is also a very classy performer. The only areas of my research he missed out on was that he hadnt won over the course (because he hasnt run over the course) and the jockey hasnt won on him (Darryl Jacob hasnt actually ridden him before)
Other bets today are...
1:45 - Aland Islands (very strong each way bet)
2:15 - If you really need a bet in this id go for Sprinter Sacre to beat Australia Day
2:50 - Zarkandar
3:25 - On Borrowed Wings (I cant stress how much of a hard race Chapoturgeon had at Cheltenham, i was watching him after the race and they were having to hold him up afterwards, cant see him winning)
4:15 - Neptune Collonges
5:05 - Dee Ee Williams
5:35 - Population
I hope everyone has a great National day and I hope my blog has helped you find a winner or two to pay for your nights out and weekends.
Happy Punting Everyone
remember to follow me on Twitter @lukeyboy1325
Saturday, 7 April 2012
Saturday 7th April
Last week wasnt much of a success on the return to flat action, but we had Jimmy Styles each way at 12/1. Return to National hunt racing today although Kempton do boast a very good card on the all weather, they also have one of two 'Painted' horses in training. Its basically a Skewbald horse but in Horse Racing it is called Painted rather than that. Anyway lets dive into today's racing and hopefully find us a winner or two. Just a quick note, i was at Fontwell on Tuesday and two horses caught my eye, Tweedledrum will be winning over further and next time out Water Wagtail will win with experience under his belt.
2:25 - Haydock Park
A race that brings together a few horses in form and none more so than FRENCH TIES for the Jennie Candlish yard. He has won his last two races but this is a much harder task today, saying that he is a progressive horse and could go close. SUBURBAN BAY was 25 lengths behind Menorah earlier in the season but since then has turned in two good efforts to come second twice, but in much weaker contests than this and its hard to see him getting competitive. Alan King also saddles up PRINCE DU SEUIL who has had a short break since his last race when well put in his place by Hunt Ball. He may want conditions softer than he will get today and others are preferred. SAFARI JOURNEY rarely puts in a bad run and looked back to his best off the same mark as today when second at Ascot last week. If he takes the quick race well its hard to see him not there at the end. TIGER O'TOOLE was a fairly exciting chaser at the start of the year but hasnt really filled out into what people were hoping. He has been going the right way as of late but this is a harder race and will have to continue his progression to get close. BOCCIANI was a dark horse in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham but disappointed and was pulled up, a return to fences is in his favour today as he won here before reverting back to hurdles. He could be one that goes close today. ETXALAR had a little bit of support last night but that hasnt followed through to this morning and he may just need further. Brian Ellison's first string in this race is SOUND ACCORD who has gone from strength to strength since joining the stable, saying that he would prefer softer ground and it would take a mighty effort to land this today. ZITENKA is a horse of notable interest as he came third last time after a break of almost a year, he should strip much fitter for today and isn't one to rule out without a second look. BUFFALO BOB is more than good enough but he tends to run his best ground in more testing conditions. Preference today is for the Cheltenham hopeful CARRICKBOY. I know for a fact that Venetia Williams really fancies this one and also thinks he will go well in the Topham next week. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham to come 6th behind Hunt Ball. Support seems strong behind him in his stable and we are with him to score off top weight.
3:30 - Haydock Park
Last Sunday's Ascot winner RIGUEZ DANCER goes again for Ferdy Murphy under a 7 pound penalty, he has always had talent but sometimes doesnt always show it. Noel Fehily takes the ride today and if able to take two quick races he should go close again. TORPHICHEN disappointed in the Imperial Cup and we havent seen the same horse who ran so well behind Celestial Halo at Newbury, if fences can bring out his best again he could be bang there. QULINTON absolutely hacked up at Market Rasen last summer but since then hasnt sparkled at all but his 133 day break could have freshened him up and is worth a second look today. MR SYNTAX has been in good form but has gone up 8 pounds for his 3 and a half length win at Kelso. He could find life tough today but Richard Johnson is a notable Jockey booking. AURORA'S ENCORE is a good horse on his day and looked right back to his best last time out at Sandown and cant be easily dismissed today. The stable are also in good enough form. CRUCHAIN is most likely off a high enough mark today and is opposed. OWEN GLENDOWER ran his heart out at Cheltenham and that run has been taken into account with him being installed the 4/1 favourite today. My worry is that like so many others he wont be able to reproduce his Cheltenham run so close to it. Saying that this is a weaker race today. LORD VILLEZ won at Newcastle last time and had GANSEY behind him that day. The latter is the selection and is fancied to reverse placings today. He had been badly out of form but his last two runs have hinted at a bit of a revival in himself. The jockey booking is also very notable as Jason Maguire rarely rides for Sue Smith and there could be a hidden reason he is on board today. GANSEY to land the race.
3:55 - Carlisle
Only a small field for this one with 6 going down to post, but its not short on ability. MORGAN BE is almost a household name in the north, known for his superb staying ability in impossible conditions he rarely turns in a bad race. You would have to think he will struggle today (but he is a horse that can make people look foolish for ruling him out). For a 12 year old AMMUNITION is pretty lightly raced but has shown a liking for extreme distances. Its over a year since his last win and is opposed today. ISLA PEARL FISHER won last time out and for that is running off a career high mark of 110, if he improves then he will be competitive but he has found winning hard to come by off a lower mark. Saying that he is clearly in good form and deserves his chance. VAMIZI won over course and distance last time out but he has shown that he runs his best races in very testing conditions and isn't a strong favourite in my mind. HARRY FLASHMAN doesnt know how to run a bad race but he may just need today's run after a long layoff, he does however go well fresh. The one we are siding with today is YOU KNOW YOURSELF who's last two runs were over distances much too short for him, today will be much more up his street, personally I cant find anything to oppose him with and he will take all the beating today. A very very strong bet.
4:05 - Haydock Park
Many seem to think that Nicky Henderson holds the key to this race with the unbeaten FOURTH ESTATE. It could be a touch unfair of me to say that he has been wrapped in cotton wool as usually an unbeaten horse of Nicky Henderson's would have been tried a bit higher by now. you would have to think that something more is in store for him. He is taken on today though. EYRE APPARENT runs in the colours of Brindisi Breeze, unfortunately he isnt him but he is a consistent type, although looks out of his depth today. SYDNEY PAGET is a very highly thought of horse and won nicely last time out at Ayr, his best may be seen on softer ground though, expect him to be a big danger however. PERSIAN SNOW was behind the progressive Lava Lamp last time out and has been raised 5 pounds for that performance. He hails from a good stable but others are preferred. GRANDADS HORSE ran a blinder in the Martin Pipe and is a very admirable sort, only beaten 18 lengths by Fingal Bay at Cheltenahm. A reproduction of his last two runs will see him close off top weight. Noel Fehily is a positive jockey booking. We are siding with PINEROLO who i put up as a horse to follow a while back, he has won for us at Carlisle since and had quite a bit in hand last time. Last night i got him at 16.0 on Betfair and is now available at only half the price. He is a huge horse and a fantastic jumper who i can see going in again. Serious horse for the future.
5:20 - Newton Abbot
Unfortunately we have a non runner which takes each way betting down to 3 places which is annoying but we shall soldier on through it. Tony McCoy has gone to Newton Abbot for 2 rides at either end of the card today. Here he has CARDINAL ROSE who disappointed majorly last time at Southwell, it's safe to say he is capable of much better but he does have to show that today and can be opposed. ARCTIC WATCH'S only win has come at this course but does run very consistently rarely turning in a bad effort, he will really enjoy the ground today as a bonus. CAUNAY has the very talented Tom Bellamy on board today and his 7 pounds off will help no end and he is another that cant be easily dismissed this afternoon, especially on this ground which he so loves. He has found winning hard to come by lately though off his higher rating. THE DISENGAGER is a nice horse and is still very lightly raced, His jumping can sometimes let him down though and is one to watch. Tom Flint rides RIGHT OPTION for his father and the faster ground bought him back to his best after being pulled up twice last time. He has only recorded two wins in the National Hunt sphere though and hasnt won since winning a very good race at Cheltenham in 2009. BLACK PHANTOM was fairly highly tried as a younger horse but realistically this is his level and he could go well today. Preference is for a horse i consider a winner in waiting called BE MY LIGHT. The last two times he has been staying on very well and there were excuses last time in the fact that he got blindsided by Minella Mistake at a hurdle, from then on he was tenderly ridden by today's rider and was flying home at the death to almost grab 3rd on the line. Diarmuid O'Regan's 10 pound claim is a huge bonus in a race like this and he should go close today.
NAP - You Know Yourself
NB - Pinerolo
Id also like to say a big well done to Maurice Linehan for winning ride of the year aboard Tarvini at Huntingdon in the Lesters.
2:25 - Haydock Park
A race that brings together a few horses in form and none more so than FRENCH TIES for the Jennie Candlish yard. He has won his last two races but this is a much harder task today, saying that he is a progressive horse and could go close. SUBURBAN BAY was 25 lengths behind Menorah earlier in the season but since then has turned in two good efforts to come second twice, but in much weaker contests than this and its hard to see him getting competitive. Alan King also saddles up PRINCE DU SEUIL who has had a short break since his last race when well put in his place by Hunt Ball. He may want conditions softer than he will get today and others are preferred. SAFARI JOURNEY rarely puts in a bad run and looked back to his best off the same mark as today when second at Ascot last week. If he takes the quick race well its hard to see him not there at the end. TIGER O'TOOLE was a fairly exciting chaser at the start of the year but hasnt really filled out into what people were hoping. He has been going the right way as of late but this is a harder race and will have to continue his progression to get close. BOCCIANI was a dark horse in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham but disappointed and was pulled up, a return to fences is in his favour today as he won here before reverting back to hurdles. He could be one that goes close today. ETXALAR had a little bit of support last night but that hasnt followed through to this morning and he may just need further. Brian Ellison's first string in this race is SOUND ACCORD who has gone from strength to strength since joining the stable, saying that he would prefer softer ground and it would take a mighty effort to land this today. ZITENKA is a horse of notable interest as he came third last time after a break of almost a year, he should strip much fitter for today and isn't one to rule out without a second look. BUFFALO BOB is more than good enough but he tends to run his best ground in more testing conditions. Preference today is for the Cheltenham hopeful CARRICKBOY. I know for a fact that Venetia Williams really fancies this one and also thinks he will go well in the Topham next week. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham to come 6th behind Hunt Ball. Support seems strong behind him in his stable and we are with him to score off top weight.
3:30 - Haydock Park
Last Sunday's Ascot winner RIGUEZ DANCER goes again for Ferdy Murphy under a 7 pound penalty, he has always had talent but sometimes doesnt always show it. Noel Fehily takes the ride today and if able to take two quick races he should go close again. TORPHICHEN disappointed in the Imperial Cup and we havent seen the same horse who ran so well behind Celestial Halo at Newbury, if fences can bring out his best again he could be bang there. QULINTON absolutely hacked up at Market Rasen last summer but since then hasnt sparkled at all but his 133 day break could have freshened him up and is worth a second look today. MR SYNTAX has been in good form but has gone up 8 pounds for his 3 and a half length win at Kelso. He could find life tough today but Richard Johnson is a notable Jockey booking. AURORA'S ENCORE is a good horse on his day and looked right back to his best last time out at Sandown and cant be easily dismissed today. The stable are also in good enough form. CRUCHAIN is most likely off a high enough mark today and is opposed. OWEN GLENDOWER ran his heart out at Cheltenham and that run has been taken into account with him being installed the 4/1 favourite today. My worry is that like so many others he wont be able to reproduce his Cheltenham run so close to it. Saying that this is a weaker race today. LORD VILLEZ won at Newcastle last time and had GANSEY behind him that day. The latter is the selection and is fancied to reverse placings today. He had been badly out of form but his last two runs have hinted at a bit of a revival in himself. The jockey booking is also very notable as Jason Maguire rarely rides for Sue Smith and there could be a hidden reason he is on board today. GANSEY to land the race.
3:55 - Carlisle
Only a small field for this one with 6 going down to post, but its not short on ability. MORGAN BE is almost a household name in the north, known for his superb staying ability in impossible conditions he rarely turns in a bad race. You would have to think he will struggle today (but he is a horse that can make people look foolish for ruling him out). For a 12 year old AMMUNITION is pretty lightly raced but has shown a liking for extreme distances. Its over a year since his last win and is opposed today. ISLA PEARL FISHER won last time out and for that is running off a career high mark of 110, if he improves then he will be competitive but he has found winning hard to come by off a lower mark. Saying that he is clearly in good form and deserves his chance. VAMIZI won over course and distance last time out but he has shown that he runs his best races in very testing conditions and isn't a strong favourite in my mind. HARRY FLASHMAN doesnt know how to run a bad race but he may just need today's run after a long layoff, he does however go well fresh. The one we are siding with today is YOU KNOW YOURSELF who's last two runs were over distances much too short for him, today will be much more up his street, personally I cant find anything to oppose him with and he will take all the beating today. A very very strong bet.
4:05 - Haydock Park
Many seem to think that Nicky Henderson holds the key to this race with the unbeaten FOURTH ESTATE. It could be a touch unfair of me to say that he has been wrapped in cotton wool as usually an unbeaten horse of Nicky Henderson's would have been tried a bit higher by now. you would have to think that something more is in store for him. He is taken on today though. EYRE APPARENT runs in the colours of Brindisi Breeze, unfortunately he isnt him but he is a consistent type, although looks out of his depth today. SYDNEY PAGET is a very highly thought of horse and won nicely last time out at Ayr, his best may be seen on softer ground though, expect him to be a big danger however. PERSIAN SNOW was behind the progressive Lava Lamp last time out and has been raised 5 pounds for that performance. He hails from a good stable but others are preferred. GRANDADS HORSE ran a blinder in the Martin Pipe and is a very admirable sort, only beaten 18 lengths by Fingal Bay at Cheltenahm. A reproduction of his last two runs will see him close off top weight. Noel Fehily is a positive jockey booking. We are siding with PINEROLO who i put up as a horse to follow a while back, he has won for us at Carlisle since and had quite a bit in hand last time. Last night i got him at 16.0 on Betfair and is now available at only half the price. He is a huge horse and a fantastic jumper who i can see going in again. Serious horse for the future.
5:20 - Newton Abbot
Unfortunately we have a non runner which takes each way betting down to 3 places which is annoying but we shall soldier on through it. Tony McCoy has gone to Newton Abbot for 2 rides at either end of the card today. Here he has CARDINAL ROSE who disappointed majorly last time at Southwell, it's safe to say he is capable of much better but he does have to show that today and can be opposed. ARCTIC WATCH'S only win has come at this course but does run very consistently rarely turning in a bad effort, he will really enjoy the ground today as a bonus. CAUNAY has the very talented Tom Bellamy on board today and his 7 pounds off will help no end and he is another that cant be easily dismissed this afternoon, especially on this ground which he so loves. He has found winning hard to come by lately though off his higher rating. THE DISENGAGER is a nice horse and is still very lightly raced, His jumping can sometimes let him down though and is one to watch. Tom Flint rides RIGHT OPTION for his father and the faster ground bought him back to his best after being pulled up twice last time. He has only recorded two wins in the National Hunt sphere though and hasnt won since winning a very good race at Cheltenham in 2009. BLACK PHANTOM was fairly highly tried as a younger horse but realistically this is his level and he could go well today. Preference is for a horse i consider a winner in waiting called BE MY LIGHT. The last two times he has been staying on very well and there were excuses last time in the fact that he got blindsided by Minella Mistake at a hurdle, from then on he was tenderly ridden by today's rider and was flying home at the death to almost grab 3rd on the line. Diarmuid O'Regan's 10 pound claim is a huge bonus in a race like this and he should go close today.
NAP - You Know Yourself
NB - Pinerolo
Id also like to say a big well done to Maurice Linehan for winning ride of the year aboard Tarvini at Huntingdon in the Lesters.
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