Well yesterday was more like it, with the first two winning and stamping their authority for March. Far West now as short as 8/1 favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and Our Father also as short as 8/1 for the RSA. Skybet are the standout at 14/1 after his bloodless beating of Sire Collonges who in turn was miles clear of old rival Sea of Thunder.
Another top class looking Novice chase starts us off today which is where we shall start.
1:10 Cheltenham - Captain Conan
He looks like one of the standout novice chasers of this season and this should be a race to stake his claims for the Arkle. He wont have things his own way with Gary Moore Yardstick Sire De Grugy who won easily at Kempton on debut also in the field. The main danger could be from Third Intention who was probably beaten by lack of race fitness behind His Excellency here last time. Paul Nicholls won the PaddyPower yesterday and is represented by Exeter winner Rebel Rebellion, he could be biting off a bit more than he can chew here however. Last years Tolworth hurdle winner looks the one to be on today with a win on soft ground at Auteil in France. Added confidence in his Tolworth Hurdle victory was also on Soft. It will take a very good one to beat him on his reappearance today.
1:45 Cheltenham - Captain Sunshine
I fancied him for his reappearance here last time, that time race fitness told and he faded after 2 from home. He was entered last week at Exeter where he 'refused' to race, in my mind thats a bit harsh. He was subject to a big gamble and was going off 5/4 before disaster struck. Just as they were coming out onto the track he decided to go left and take a turn instead of towards the tape. In my opinion the starter should have recalled them, but hey thats not up to me. He didnt plant his feet or look unwilling to run at anypoint down at the start. Before that blotch on his CV he had shown great promise and the fact that he is turned out again so quickly shows they think he is in good heart and could be the one to beat here. Paul Nicholls' Ruben Cotter is the one for the early money. Emma Lavelle's representative looks worth another try though.
2:20 Cheltenham - Wishfull Thinking
Were the going tomorrow good instead of as testing as today he'd be opposable, it would also mean the Sprinter Sacre would be going to post however. This looks to be his day in the sun this year receiving weight from inferior rivals, unfortunately the price reflects that. Seen just the once this year at Aintree when in the Old Roan field that got slammed by For Non Stop, that was 2 and a half miles. The drop back to two miles on this ground will suit him no end and should dismiss of the reappearing Doeslessthanme.
Imperial Shabra, the Irish Raider from the enigmatic Oliver Brady yard could be the biggest danger. He was considered good enough to go for the Jewson last year but was pulled out at the last stage. He has had alot of runs since then, well into the double figures but proved he isnt in need of a break when a close third to Cristal Bonus last time out. The 'toughest horse in training' could be a tough nut to crack here today. One other bonus is that Oliver Brady does very well with his runners in England, Imperial Shabra himself has won at Stratford earlier in the year. I recall Baron De Feypo winning at the festival a few years back, that was his highest profile win. A solid each way chance.
2:50 Cheltenham - Bothy
Brian Ellison's charge made a more than pleasing comeback off topweight at Wetherby, beaten a length by the reopposing Hi Dancer for Ben Haslam. One major thing in Bothy's court today is the testing ground which everyone knows are his preferred condtions. Five pounds higher today than at Wetherby, he should strip alot fitter for his reappearance and looks the one to beat on his old form. You will remember he was second in the Totesport trophy by a short head off four pounds lower behind Recession Proof. Next time out he was 6 lengths beaten by Carlito Brigante, who has gone on to bigger and better things. A confident vote and 16/1 is way overpriced.
3:25 Cheltenham - Coneygree
He may just slip in under the radar here with bigger more powerful stables represented here, but Coneygree absolutely routed his rivals at Uttoxeter. You'd have to go back 20 lengths before you found the second placed horse from Donald McCain yard, its not the only time he has beaten a McCain horse. On his debut he handed out a beating to the expensive Dannanceys Hill. He has a bit to find with Village Vic on their Newbury bumper form and he could be the biggest threat today, after a very positive debut. Two things stick out to me about Coneygree however. The first is that he seems to excel on softer ground and is an improving horse, the second of which is his breeding. He is a half brother to Hennessy winner Carruthers, signifying he will probably need further in time and today should suit him down to the ground. The current 8/1 on offer looks a good bet and could well be the value in the race.
4:00 Cheltenham - Fascino Rustico
John Hales owned the Paddy Power winner yesterday and he could just have another good one here with Carlisle bumper winner Fascino Rustico. This will be his first start for Paul Nicholls since switching from Ron O'Leary's yard and one would think he'd improve for that. A big imposing type that is destined to try his hand in some novice hurdles later this season, and next season chasing beckons for him. He will improve for this run but looks by far the best of these and should take all the beating. This is also attheraces presenter Martin Kelly's horse to watch for the season (via Twitter)
Lets hope to follow up after a good day yesterday, a reminder that last years Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever takes part in his first hurdle at 12:45
As always Happy Punting guys
No comments:
Post a Comment