Total Pageviews

Friday 10 April 2015

2015 Crabbies Grand National

Via the link below you can watch the @OnTheOtherHoof preview of every single runner in the 2015 Crabbies Grand National. You can follow us three on twitter as well, @Lukeelder13, @Adamwebb121 and @Calummadell. Best of luck!!

Preview of every runner in the 2015 Crabbies Grand National

Now to start the runner by runner guide!

Lord Windermere

Our Grand National list starts off with Lord Windermere who bids to become the first top weight to win since Red Rum in 1977. His profile on the whole seems fairly appealing as a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, but his recent form couldn't be much worse which was highlighted in a tame defence of his Cheltenham crown last month. After that disappointment, trainer Jim Culloty (who hasn't had a winner in over a year) decided that jockey Davy Russell was to blame and Robbie McNamara takes over in the saddle.

One thing that will be firmly in his favour however is the faster ground that he is so reliant on and went against him at The Festival. That still may not be enough to help him refind his best form and the first time visor will need to work minor miracles if he is to be competitive here. Stamina is no worry and his jumping looks assured but it is fairly easy to look elsewhere for a bet despite the attractive odds. Rating - 3/10


Many Clouds

Oliver Sherwood's gelding has had a fantastic season so far through winning the Hennessy and the Betbright Cup Chase at Cheltenham. On that form along with his sixth in the Gold Cup last month he would have an exceptional chance, however all three of his victories this season have come on soft ground. Historically he doesn't have the best record on faster ground but in fairness to him he hasn't had as many chances on it as he has on softer ground, it remains a worry though. Stamina would be the least of his worries and his jumping should be assured, but he had a hard race in the Gold Cup and he'd be a somewhat surprise winner but holds live place claims. Owner Trevor Hemmings has a good record in the race after winning it with BallaBriggs in 2011 and Hedgehunter in 2005. Rating - 4/10


Unioniste

Paul Nicholls and John Hales won this race in 2012 with Neptune Collonges and they team up with another grey this year with Unioniste. Stamina would seem to be his main asset after a good sixth in a very good Hennessy which came when he was still a six year old. That could be one of his downfalls in that he is only a seven year old, an age that hasn't been victorious in this race since bogskar back in 1940. Saying that, if we have learned one thing this season it is to never discount anything trained by the genius that is Paul Nicholls and Noel Fehily is a brilliant jockey booking.

In all Unioniste should give a bold showing in this years National but it may be better to watch him this season and monitor him for twelve months time. Rating - 5/10


Rocky Creek

The first of many horses with serious chances in this years Grand National is up now with another Paul Nicholls trained horse. Rocky Creek is that horse and he was a good fifth in this race last season behind Pineau De Re after being prepped for the Gold Cup. Everything this season has been about the Grand National and he has been trained with this race firmly in the mind of connections. His form this season has been at a high level after pushing Road To Riches (third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) to eleven lengths on his reappearance. He had an off day in the Hennessy but returned in the Betbright Chase at Kempton with a scintillating performance off today's mark and top weight. He has escaped a penalty for that victory and in the future is due to go up to a lofty mark of 163 so realistically this is his best and last chance in the race.

The main thing to note is that he was found to be struggling late on in his races last season so Paul Nicholls gave him a breathing operation. Since that decision his form has vastly improved and he looks a different proposition altogether for this year's race off a two pound lower mark. It is very hard to fault anything about Rocky Creek and for me is this year's most likely winner for Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies. Rating - 10/10


First Lieutenant

For those of you that don't know I am the self appointed chairman of the First Lieutenant fan club and it still haunts me that he was never given a chance in a Gold Cup, but we have to leave that in the past now as his opportunity for it has been and gone.

As much as I would love him to win the race, I can't fathom it whatsoever as he hasn't been at his best for a while and hasn't won since 2013 which would be a huge concern. He had a recent prep over hurdles at Thurles when third of four and he would need a lot more here if his jockey Nina Carberry is to become the first lady rider to win the Grand National. Rating - 2/10


Balthazar King

One of the nations favourite horses is up next with Balthazar King who ran his usual brilliant race when second in this last year. That effort came off a three pound lower mark and in a far stronger race which needs to be taken into severe consideration this time around.

For all that last season was a roaring success, he has had a somewhat different preparation this season by design as he comes here a fresh horse after sidestepping Cheltenham and being off the track for 148 days. That itself isn't ideal, but this is the Grand National and Philip Hobbs will have him trained to the minute for the day. Once again Richard Johnson teams up with him and with the ground absolutely perfect for him he should give a bold show once more. Despite the lay off it would be a shock for me if he didn't at least place again and an even bigger shock if he failed to put in a clear round. Rating - 9/10


Shutthefrontdoor

If Shutthefrontdoor were to win this race then it would be one of the biggest stories in National history if not in National Hunt history. AP McCoy, our soon to be twenty time Champion Jockey will take his last ride in his superb career if his mount were to win this year's race. There is also another chance to make history as it is inevitable that the once a year punters will be backing the Champion Jockey and he could go off the shortest priced favourite in National history.

Much like Balthazar King we haven't seen Shutthefrontdoor since November when winning at Carlisle, but that has been his only appearance this season which isn't overly a positive but he will be no less than 100% fit for the occasion. Last season he proved that stamina was absolutely no issue when winning the Irish equivalent of this race and instantly pinhooked himself as an Aintree horse. For all that it would be a fairy tale story for AP to go out at the very top but he would need to improve a great deal to win this and his price isn't worth that risk. Rating - 6/10


Pineau De Re

Dr Richard Newland's stable star needs absolutely no introduction at all after winning this race last year at 25/1. He is a similar price this time around which reflect his chances and any past winner has to be respected despite Leighton Aspell preferring Many Clouds this year.

He doesn't come into the race in the same sparkling form that he did last year as he could only manage eleventh in the Pertemps, whereas twelve months ago he was a close third. His jumping last year also left something to be desired and it was a minor miracle that he got round nevermind won the race. It would be a bit of a shock if Pineau De Re could win back to back Nationals but you can never dismiss course form. Rating - 3/10


Ballycasey

A bit of a baffling entry for the race in next with Ballycasey for Willie Mullins, Ruby Walsh and Rich Ricci who would usually command respect. I can't say I see the logic in running a horse who doesn't stay a yard further than three miles which would seem to limit his scope in this race. He will however give backers a bold show for a good part of the race as he is normally a sound jumper and will handle the faster ground. Answers on a postcard as to why he is running in a Grand National though... Rating - 1/10


Spring Heeled

We mentioned Jim Culloty earlier on when talking about Lord Windermere but his better chance in the race may come courtesy of Spring Heeled. He showed what he is capable of when making every yard in the Kim Muir last year when fending off the late challenge from Cause Of Causes. That was no fluke as he showed in the Bet365 Gold Cup and Galway Plate and ran a nice prep behind Roi Du Mee at Fairyhouse.

There is no doubting that he has the class to figure in a race like this and the booking of Nick Scholfield is a big positive. There are some doubts about his stamina holding out however and he could be vulnerable to stronger stayers in the field. As a result of the stamina doubt he may have to be restrained a big more than he is used to which could make life difficult, it is hard to discount his chances lightly however. Rating - 5/10


Rebel Rebellion

Next up is the third of four representatives for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls with Rebel Rebellion who has already won over these fences in the 2013 Grand Sefton. That race is run over two miles and five furlongs which has been the distance his career has seemed to focus round, he was second at Exeter over three miles which does give some hope. Most recently he has built up a good rapport with Jack Sherwood but Ryan Mahon has won on him over these fences which is no negative at all and knows the horse inside out. He isn't penalised for his win at Newbury last time out but has some major questions to answer in the stamina department and may struggle as a result. Rating - 3/10


Dolatulo

Another one with experience over these fences now with Dolatulo who came a respectable eighth in the Grand Sefton earlier this season. He then went on to win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in good style but hasn't been in the same form over hurdles since which isn't too much of a worry. As a result of his Grade Three win at Wetherby he has to run off a nine pound higher mark which makes life very tough in this company.

Stamina does remain a slight issue despite winning over three miles and one furlong as he hasn't appeared to be a stayer at any other point in his career. The jury is definitely out regarding Dolatulo but it isn't too hard to dismiss his chances. Rating - 2/10


Mon Parrain

The fourth and final runner of the race for Paul Nicholls is Mon Parrain who will be partnered by Sean Bowen who qualified to ride for the race by partnering Virak to win only last weekend. He made the National fences look like hurdles when jumping supremely well in the 2011 Topham so they should pose little threat. The ground will also hold nothing against him and he looked in better form than ever when winning at Cheltenham on New Year's Day in first time blinkers. That could be the negative in that this will his third time wearing blinkers and in the past headgear has never had a lasting effect on him, that case is supported after he won in first time cheek pieces last year before his form took a severe dip. Not one to dismiss lightly but he seems up against under a young rider who could not be in better form. Rating - 4/10


Carlito Brigante - NON RUNNER

Next up is one for the small yard of Karen McLintock with the Cheltenham Festival winning Carlito Brigante who looks very unexposed at these marathon trips. It is clear that he is a horse with plenty of class about him after being competitive in Grade One's earlier on in his career when with Gordon Elliott. He has since moved yards and he has returned to some of his best form now he has consistently found faster ground which is a huge help to him. His stand out form came through his latest win at Kelso when he beat a useful field by 17 lengths off a nine pound lower mark. He is up against it here but appeals more than most others at his kind of price and arrives here in fantastic form. Rating - 5/10


Night In Milan

Night In Milan would be a popular winner for Yorkshire racing and he has run well here on the Mildmay course before for Keith Reveley and son James. However these days he seems to struggle at any course that isn't Donaster and he comes here off the back of a good effort in the Grimthorpe. Nothing really got into the race that day and despite still seeming well handicapped he will be a more attractive proposition back at his beloved Doncaster. Rating - 3/10


Rubi Light

Another horse that confuses me with his presence is Rubi Light who was once a top class two and a half miler, but even in his prime failed to stay three miles. Andrew Lynch will have a good spin for half the race as he is a bold jumper but there is no reason to suggest why he should suddenly become a stayer in this race. Rating - 1/10


The Druids Nephew

Back to the serious contenders now with The Druids Nephew who has been in the form of his life since switching to Neil Mulholland's yard at the start of this season. He comes into this race off the back of a career best performance at the Cheltenham Festival when making a mockery of a strong handicap chase off today's mark. He escaped any penalty for that race but doesn't have the assistance of the injured Barry Geraghty who rides him so well, Aidan Coleman is a more than able deputy however and that is no worry at all. My one worry for The Druids Nephew is that he is such a strong travelling horse who could just do too much too soon and bring his stamina into questioning. It is very hard to discount him however and he is by far the best handicapped horse in the race after Cheltenham. Rating - 6/10


Cause Of Causes

Gordon Elliott was in superb form on day one of the National meeting with Clarcam and Taglietelle which bodes well for Cause Of Causes' chances who comes here in good form. He was unlucky at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival when staying on too late behind Spring Heeled after a mistake at the last, but corrected that with a win in the National Hunt Chase last month. Paul Carberry takes the ride on him for the first time since 2012 but together they have been second twice and victorious once which is an impressive record to bring to the table.

One of the negatives that many people will throw against Cause Of Causes is that he is only a seven year old, but he has run 27 times and lacks nothing in experience at all. He also has the all important experience in big handicaps so will be accustomed to the hustle and bustle he will experience here. Stamina and ground pose absolutely no threats whatsoever and with all things considered he should go well at a nice price. Rating - 5/10


Godsmejudge

Alan King's sole representative in this year's race is Godsmejudge who is already a National winner after winning the Scottish version in 2013 and finishing second in the same race last season. Stamina is assured on that form but his recent form is somewhat alarming after three lack lustre performances over fences and hurdles. Despite those poor runs he has only lowered two pounds in the handicap but did finish a good third off this mark in the Bet365 Gold Cup last season. He will need to return to that form if he wants to be competitive but that is a big if and he remains overlooked until showing any improvement in form. Rating - 4/10


Al Co

Next up is Godsmejudge's conquerer in the Scottish National with Al Co for Peter Bowen who will be partnered by Denis O'Regan for the first time with Jamie Moore currently sidelined. He was given an ideal prep 21 days ago at Bangor when third over hurdles which should put him spot on for the race. The main worry surrounding Al Co is the fences as he jumped poorly on his only try over them in the Becher Chase, but that was in softer ground and he may improve for faster ground, that is too much of a worry to risk however and he is overlooked. Rating - 3/10


Monbeg Dude

Another National winner up next with the 2013 Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude for Michael Scudamore and Liam Treadwell. He is a far bigger price this season than he was when seventh in the race last year off a two pound higher mark and seems in good enough form with himself. Earlier on in the season he was a good fourth in the Hennessy before filling the same spot in the Welsh National which were both huge efforts. He disappointed last time out in a first time tongue tie behind The Druids Nephew and it's worth noting that the tongue tie is removed here. The main thing stacked against Monbeg Dude is the faster ground as he is undeniably better on soft ground, but he should run his race once more at a big price. Rating - 6/10


Corrin Wood

Corrin Wood has failed to build on the promise he showed as a Novice and didn't handle the testing ground last time out at Haydock whatsoever. Before that he put in a respectable performance behind Dolatulo in the Rowland Meyrick and is now three pounds lower than that. This race was always going to be his calling after a poor run in the 2014 RSA at Cheltenham, but it is hard to suggest he'll improve on his recent form for the yard who won this in 2011 with Ballabriggs. Rating - 2/10


The Rainbow Hunter

Kim Bailey has tasted victory in the Grand National before with Mr Frisk who still holds the course record from 1990. He has failed to complete both times he has tried these fences but last year was through no fault of his own as he was taken out by a loose horse at Valentines. Up until that point he was jumping beautifully and looked to have settled into a nice rhythm for Aidan Coleman who rides The Druids Nephew this time round. That leaves the ride open for David Bass who has been in brilliant form recently and deserves his chance in the big race. He is a huge price this year after going off 25/1 on his previous two efforts and he still warrants respect despite pulling up on his only run this season. Rating - 5/10


Saint Are

Number twenty four on the list is Saint Are who is having only his fifth start for Tom George after leaving the yard of Time Vaughan. He struggled to get into the race for his old yard but got his handicap mark up with a convincing seven length victory at Catterick last time out, albeit not beating much in the process. His only attempt at this race resulted in finishing ninth behind Aurora's Encore in the 2013 renewal of the race but he was a good third in the Becher Chase earlier in the season. One thing that is firmly in his favour is the good ground and he has run well of these kind of marks before and looked in good form this season. He has always looked like a National horses and he will finally get the chance to prove that. Rating - 5/10


Across The Bay

Donald McCain's main hope this season looks to be Across The Bay who has got himself into a good rhythm in the last two runnings and looked to enjoy himself. However his main downfall has been loose horses after being hampered in front of the stands both times. In 2013 he was carried wide but managed to rejoin the field in about fifth place before finishing fourteenth and last year his race was all but ended by a loose Tidal Bay. Connections will be delighted to make it to the second circuit safely and that may be all they can hope for as he does seem to come up short more often than not. He will give Henry Brooke a good spin however as he is one of the safer jumpers in the field. Rating - 2/10


Tranquil Sea

Despite being a thirteen year old we can't refer to Tranquil Sea as the veteran of the race due to the presence of Oscar Time, but he'd still be a heart warming winner. Unfortunately it would take a monumental effort to do that but he does represent the Cheltenham Festival winning team of Warren Greatrex and Gavin Sheehan.

Saying that he did make a pleasing return to action when fifth behind Soll at Newbury on his only start this season. Realistically he was never going to trouble the leaders that day but passed a few rivals late in the day which will put him spot on for the task at hand. Despite being well handicapped on his old form, he looks a shadow of his former self when winning the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in 2009 and the ground will be on the fast side for him. One that will likely give you a run for a good part of the race but one that would definitely go down as shock winner. Rating - 2/10


Oscar Time


Now for the real veteran of the race with the evergreen fourteen year old in Oscar Time who has looked as good as ever this season. With that in mind his season didn't get off to the best start as he unseated Sam Waley Cohen at Cheltenham when in the midst of running a big race. He then rolled back the years over his beloved National fences when showing his younger rivals a clean pair of hooves and jumped superbly in the process. Besides a good record over the fences in general he boasts a fantastic record in the National itself, after finishing second to BallaBriggs in 2011 and fourth to Aurora's Encore in 2013. Both of those runs came off a three pound higher mark than he has to contest with here and has to have a huge chance despite his advancing age and insulting price. Rating - 8/10


Bob Ford


Paul Townend and Rebecca Curtis have struck up a good relationship this year and they team up here with West Wales National winner Bob Ford. That victory came between two poor efforts when he was pulled up at Chepstow and last time in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. He didn't convince on his only run over these fences back in December and will struggle to dominate like he loves to do but stamina is no issue for him, easily passed over. Rating - 2/10


Super Duty

The Ian Williams yard have been quietly confident about Super Duty who made a nice enough return to fences in a muddling race last time out at Doncaster. Despite that not being the worst run in the world it is still a long way off what he needs to achieve to get competitive in a Grand National, but his last run for Donald McCain in December would hand him more of a positive. It is still hard to see a horse who has had problems like his getting competitive here though. Rating - 2/10


Wyck Hill

Stamina will be no problem for the former Eider Chase winner Wyck Hill who represents David Bridgwater and Tom Cannon. His recent form is a bit of a worry as he fell when defending his Eider crown on his only chase start this season, but he did run well in a novice hurdle before that which shows he retains his ability. His only start over the National Course resulted in a ninth place in the 2013 Becher Chase and he has always shaped as if he will relish the demands of this race. From a mark eight pounds higher than his last win you would be surprised if he were good enough to win this, but he has the shape of a horse that will run well. Rating - 3/10


Gas Line Boy

Philip Hobbs has three hopes in the Grand National this year and two of them have realistic chances, unfortunately Gas Line Boy wouldn't appear to be one of them. He is a horse who needs to be left alone in front and allowed to dominate the race which will be nearly impossible to do so without going too fast. Ideally he would also like the ground a bit softer but if he does find his rhythm then he should give James Best a good spin for a while. Rating - 2/10


Chance Du Roy

Now for one of the realistic chances for Philip Hobbs with Chance Du Roy who has completed on five of his six attempts over the National fences. He has been victorious on one of those occasions when winning the 2013 running of the Becher Chase after a second in the Topham the year before. Both of those are over shorter trips and his stamina seemed to empty late on in last years Grand National when he went down a valiant sixth. That was a superb run in truth and he ran very well on his prep run at Exeter behind Soll which will hold him in good stead for today's task. For win purposes he may come up a bit short but he has very live place chances and Tom O'Brien gets on with him very well. Rating - 6/10


Portrait King

You won't miss Maurice Phelan's representative in the race if you back him as at the age of ten he is becoming whiter than paint and he isn't without a chance. As mentioned earlier on we had an ex Eider Chase winner with Wyck hill and Portrait King is another one that has earned that title after winning in 2012. After that victory he was out of form for a long time but has recently started to refind some of his best efforts with a win at Punchestown in January. He disappointed in this year's renewal of the Eider but ran well over hurdles last time out and seems to be in good heart with himself. The main worry with Portrait King is that he may fall too far behind early on but he'll be staying on at the end of the day when others have cried enough. Rating - 4/10


Owega Star

Jockey Robbie Power won this race in 2007 with Silver Birch and partners the Peter Fahey trained Owega Star in the 2015 renewal. It was a shock when he won it that day and it would be an even bigger shock were he to win it again this season, there is some worthwhile form for Owega Star however. Two outings ago he finished a good fifth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown off a two pound lower mark which will need improving on. He didn't improve that form last time out when disappointing at Naas when beaten 32 lengths by Miss Xian in the Leinster National. This looks too much of an ask however and plenty of others are preferred. Rating - 1/10


River Choice

A rare French runner is up next with River Choice who really doesn't look anywhere good enough on his French form which is mostly over much shorter trips. He did finish a well beaten sixth in a French Grade One last year over three miles and six furlongs which again wouldn't be good enough to win a National. He is an intriguing contender ridden by top French jockey David Cottin but he is one of the first horses dismissed. Rating - 1/10


Court By Surprise

If you strictly follow the form book then you will see that Court By Surprise has won his last two races, don't be fooled by that however. You will remember his last performance came at Wincanton when second in the Badger Ales to The Young Master with the actual winner subsequently being disaqualified. As a result of that performance he has been raised two pounds in the handicap and hasn't been seen since that November Engagement. Usually the break would be a bit of a worry but this is the Grand National and Court By Surprise has been known to go well fresh including a win at Exeter in October. With all that taken into consideration he still must find a great deal more but does sneak in off a low weight and has his chance. Rating - 4/10


Alvarado

A horse that will likely be the favourite to place on Betfair but will be more glamorous odds if you fancy him to win. I say this as his jockey Paul Moloney has placed in these silks for the last six renewals of the race including on Alvarado last season when fourth. Personally I don't think that is a coincidence as more often than not his unlucky rides are given a lot to do and never really get close enough to land a blow.

With all that mentioned his trainer Fergal O'Brien has given him a light campaign but he reappeared with a good performance in a Veterans Chase. That will put him spot on for this race and is only one pound higher than last year's race and should give another bold sight this year. Rating 8/10


Soll

The last of the main chances is next with Soll who was seventh in the race two years ago when trained by Jo Hughes. That has since changed and he is unbeaten in two starts for David Pipe who has finally got him qualified for another crack at the National. His last two performances have been bloodless when running his rivals into the ground and the form has received a few boost and he remains unpenalised for his latest win.

Much like Portrait King his main danger is getting outpaced early on and leaving himself with too much ground to make up before staying on. However it isn't a bad thing to be staying on when the others cry enough as his jumping is no worry whatsoever and he should give a bold sight. Rating - 7/10


Ely Brown

Charlie Longsdon is taking a bold stance with Ely Brown as he has plenty of experience but has only run over fences four times which is less than ideal. He is however a Grade Two winner over fences, albeit one of the weakest Grade Two's in existence and the must be handled lightly. It may be best to talk about his rider Brian Hughes, who has had two winners at Aintree over the last two days including a Grade Two. You wouldn't imagine that Ely Brown will be adding to that tally and is easily overlooked. Rating - 1/10


Royale Knight

Dr Richard Newland is responsible for the final horse in the 2015 Crabbies Grand National and he wouldn't be without a chance. The only reason he made it into the race is thanks to the handicapper raising him fifteen pounds for winning the Durham National at Sedgefield. That race is over three miles and six furlongs so stamina shouldn't be much of a concern, but this race is a completely different proposition and could be too much of an ask for him. Rating - 2/10


1st - Rocky Creek 
2nd - Balthazar King
3rd - Alvarado
4th - Oscar Time


In total honesty the 2015 Grand National looks a poor renewal but course form is as prevalent as always and it could be worth sticking with that. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls saddles four in the race and the most obvious chance he has is without doubt Rocky Creek who was fifth in the race twelve months ago. He received a breathing operation at the start of the season which has worked wonders and he is the most confident selection for me in a National since Neptune Collonges won it in 2012. Life won't be easy for him with the tough Balthazar King who has been aimed at this race since his second twelve months ago. He is one with good course form as is Alvarado who was a staying on fourth last season, it would almost be more of a shock if he didn't place and once again should run his race. One person who needs no introduction to these fences is Sam Waley Cohen who won the Topham yesterday on Rajdhani Express, he will once again get a good spin on Oscar Time who has placed twice before and is a huge price. As for the rest, it would be folly to dismiss a horse like Soll who is a strong stayer and has jumped round here before and Chance Du Roy will likely run his race without troubling the judge once more. The Rainbow Hunter also warrants close consideration after unseating through no fault of his own last season and is a silly price. Good luck with whoever you back and let's hope that every horse and jockey returns home safely!!

1 comment:

  1. Hi, I agree with every statement that you have made in the post and I really appreciate your effort in gathering up the information. Thanks for it. We also offer best Horse Racing Analysis in all over the globe.

    ReplyDelete