Good morning/evening everybody, last week was successful but still a tad disappointing with Slade Power and Pique Sous winning nicely with Pether's Moon also placing, however we must do better this week. Today marks the rematch of Australia and Kingston Hill in the Irish Derby who filled first and second places in the English equivalent. The Ballydoyle representative is a heavy odds on shot whereas Roger Varian's first Group One winner is around the 4/1 mark at the time of writing this.
As always we have a video preview online for you as we make our way through all the day's Channel 4 action. Joining me on the panel this week is @Adamwebb121, we hope you enjoy the video and any questions you may have are appreciated and will be read out, just tweet myself at @Lukeelder13.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ctg0nyBRCNg
Now onto the all important selections!
2:05 Newcastle - Doc Hay
Doc Hay has been horribly out of form so far this season and the switch to Brian Ellison's yard hasn't seemed to help him too much yet. However last time out at Musselburgh he showed glimpses of his former self and was very unlucky to finish only eighth in a very strong handicap. He was characteristically slow out of the stalls and took up his usual place at the back of the field before finding more than his fair share of trouble in running. That came over an inadequate trip of five furlongs which seems a bit on the short side for him nowadays so the step back up to six furlongs should see him to good effect. Ian Brennan keeps the ride meaning with his three pound claim Doc Hay will be running off a mark nine pounds lower than his last winning one, as well as his lowest mark since early 2012. Doc Hay to take advantage of a slipping handicap mark and put one hoof back in the right direction after a prep run today over five furlongs. (12/1)
3:30 Newmarket - Gregorian
Gregorian disappointed on his seasonal reappearance at Epsom but history suggests that he usually needs his first run of the year so we can easily forgive that effort. We last saw him in winning form at Newbury in August last year when he beat Soft Falling Rain and the re-opposing Tawhid that day in a Group Two. Before that came his best effort by a country mile when third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot when finding only Declaration Of War and Aljamaaheer too good. If Gregorian's effort at Epsom has put him anywhere near 100% for today then he should take a lot of beating in a weak field compared to his usual company. (5/1)
4:10 Windsor - Gamesome
Olly Stevens throws Gamesome in the deep end here as he takes on the older horses for the first time after a good effort at York last time out. That run came as he was dropped back to six furlongs after not seeing out a furlong longer at Newmarket, although admittedly it wasn't the trip that beat him that day. He bounced back in good style when fourth at York behind See The Sun and the third placed horse (Kickboxer) has since won. As Gamesome is the only three year old in the field he gets a very handy seven pound allowance meaning in reality, he is running off a mark of 91 which could be lenient. Gamesome is taken to beat his elders today at Windsor with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. (5/1)
5:15 Newmarket - Urban Dance
It is no secret that Charlie Appleby hasn't exactly set the world alight in the first half of the season, however his string have been coming on significantly for the run. Urban Dance has his second start of the season today which see's him step down in trip to a distance he is unbeaten at from two attempts. Mickael Barzalona has partnered him on both of his victories however since he is now back riding in France, William Buick takes over in the saddle. It has seemed that a mile and a half has just been stretching his stamina at this stage of his career so the step back to a mile and a quarter looks a positive one, however the in form Llanarmon Lad could prove a tough nut to crack. (4/1)
NAP - Gregorian
Nb - Doc Hay
Have a great weekend all and as always, happy punting!
Friday 27 June 2014
Friday 20 June 2014
Double Power For Lynam
Good morning/evening to you all I hope you are still going strong as we face the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot today after what has been a fantastic first four days. Yesterday marked only one winner in Rizeena but that was enough to put us in profit and keep the ball rolling after Western Hymn's absence. Today's star attraction looks sure to be Slade Power after an impressive reappearance, as well as the ever promising Telescope who has no Noble Mission to worry about.
As always we have a video preview prepared for you as we discuss the final day of Royal Ascot and give our thoughts on the races. Joining me today are the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours and I must thank them for their commitment during this week... THANKS GUYS! We hope you enjoy the last video of the week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B8zj3UlIl4
Now onto the selections for the final blog of the week, thank you for reading it throughout!
3:45 Ascot - Pether's Moon
We make a belated start to proceedings today with Pether's Moon who has been running creditably this season in a similar grade, but has had excuses both times. His reappearance came in a Group Two where he came up short against Gospel Choir who has since boosted the form in a strong way, but Pether's Moon was inclined to improve for the outing. To many people's surprise he then ran a week later on ground that was far too soft for him and once again found one too good in the form of Gatewood, who has since won again. There will be no excuses for today as he has his preferred ground and there are no worries about the trip and quite honestly his price tag is ludicrous. Pether's Moon to get us off to a good start. (11/1)
4:15 Ayr - New Fforest
Next up is the first of two Elite Racing Club runners with New Fforest who severely hindered his chances in the Epsom Dash when missing the break on his first run this season. He kept on in nice style but was always facing an uphill battle from an early stage and is definitely one to keep on the right side of, especially now race fit. The fast ground won't be a problem for him and the replacement in the saddle of David Probert is no negative after he is on a high after a Royal Ascot winner. New Fforest to refind the winning thread in a much easier race than last time. (7/1)
4:25 Ascot - Slade Power
Today's NAP comes in the form of Slade Power who could manage no better than seventh behind Lethal Force, but he has come on leaps and bounds since then. His last visit to Royal Ascot resulted in a victory at Champions Day when just edging out Jack Dexter who was in fantastic form at the time. He made his reappearance at the Curragh over six furlongs and handed out a two length beating to a race fit Maarek with the minimum of fuss. He looks a completely different horse to the one who turned up here last season and it would be a bit of a shock were he not to follow stablemate Sole Power into the winner's enclosure this week. (4/1)
4:40 Newmarket - Stars Above Me
The second part of the Elite Racing Club double comes in the form of Stars Above Me who promised so much as a two year old but things haven't gone right lately. She drops down to the minimum trip of five furlongs which looks a positive move after she was too keen and not seeing out the six furlong trip. Her last run is worth completely forgetting about as nothing went right for her, but she showed signs of her best on her reappearance but didn't stay the final furlong and had to settle for second. Cam Hardie takes over in the saddle today and takes off a valuable seven pounds which means she can run off a low mark of 83 which looks very lenient. Stars Above Me to complete the Elite Racing Club double and return to the winning ranks. (5/1)
5:35 Ascot - Pique Sous
The last race of Royal Ascot can go to Ireland and in particular the yard of Willie Mullins who won this race two years ago with Simenon. His representative this year has similar potential after switching codes and has been well backed after Pricewise put him up as a selection. It is nothing short of a miracle that he is still with us after a serious bout of colic put his life in jeopardy, however he is back to full fitness and ready to perform on the big stage once more. He made his reappearance at the Curragh and far from disgraced himself after travelling into the race strongly and getting hampered before tiring behind Thomas Edison. The ground was likely a bit too soft for him that day and it is no secret that Pique Sous needs lightning fast ground which he gets today. This will be his first attempt at a race further than 17 furlongs but stamina shouldn't be an issue and with Ryan Moore booked is taken to finish Royal Ascot in style. (6/1)
5:50 Newmarket - Dutch Art Dealer
We end the day with Dutch Art Dealer who shaped as a promising two year old and entered the notebook after his debut against the ill fated Piping Rock. He travelled supremely well that day and was the last left on the bridle before getting outpaced and staying on in good style for third. Next up he went to Windsor where he won a maiden in nice style but looks sure to appreciate seven furlongs more than the six he ran over then. His latest run came over seven furlongs but nothing seemed to go right for him, he started slowly which always put him on the back foot, then turning for home he faced more trouble. After angling out wide he managed to find his best stride but when he did he absolutely flew home before just running out of time. If things fall right for him today then a three pound higher mark shouldn't be enough to stop him and is taken to round the day off in style. (6/1)
NAP - Slade Power
Nb - Stars Above Me
Thank you to everyone who has read the blog this week and as always, happy punting!
As always we have a video preview prepared for you as we discuss the final day of Royal Ascot and give our thoughts on the races. Joining me today are the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours and I must thank them for their commitment during this week... THANKS GUYS! We hope you enjoy the last video of the week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B8zj3UlIl4
Now onto the selections for the final blog of the week, thank you for reading it throughout!
3:45 Ascot - Pether's Moon
We make a belated start to proceedings today with Pether's Moon who has been running creditably this season in a similar grade, but has had excuses both times. His reappearance came in a Group Two where he came up short against Gospel Choir who has since boosted the form in a strong way, but Pether's Moon was inclined to improve for the outing. To many people's surprise he then ran a week later on ground that was far too soft for him and once again found one too good in the form of Gatewood, who has since won again. There will be no excuses for today as he has his preferred ground and there are no worries about the trip and quite honestly his price tag is ludicrous. Pether's Moon to get us off to a good start. (11/1)
4:15 Ayr - New Fforest
Next up is the first of two Elite Racing Club runners with New Fforest who severely hindered his chances in the Epsom Dash when missing the break on his first run this season. He kept on in nice style but was always facing an uphill battle from an early stage and is definitely one to keep on the right side of, especially now race fit. The fast ground won't be a problem for him and the replacement in the saddle of David Probert is no negative after he is on a high after a Royal Ascot winner. New Fforest to refind the winning thread in a much easier race than last time. (7/1)
4:25 Ascot - Slade Power
Today's NAP comes in the form of Slade Power who could manage no better than seventh behind Lethal Force, but he has come on leaps and bounds since then. His last visit to Royal Ascot resulted in a victory at Champions Day when just edging out Jack Dexter who was in fantastic form at the time. He made his reappearance at the Curragh over six furlongs and handed out a two length beating to a race fit Maarek with the minimum of fuss. He looks a completely different horse to the one who turned up here last season and it would be a bit of a shock were he not to follow stablemate Sole Power into the winner's enclosure this week. (4/1)
4:40 Newmarket - Stars Above Me
The second part of the Elite Racing Club double comes in the form of Stars Above Me who promised so much as a two year old but things haven't gone right lately. She drops down to the minimum trip of five furlongs which looks a positive move after she was too keen and not seeing out the six furlong trip. Her last run is worth completely forgetting about as nothing went right for her, but she showed signs of her best on her reappearance but didn't stay the final furlong and had to settle for second. Cam Hardie takes over in the saddle today and takes off a valuable seven pounds which means she can run off a low mark of 83 which looks very lenient. Stars Above Me to complete the Elite Racing Club double and return to the winning ranks. (5/1)
5:35 Ascot - Pique Sous
The last race of Royal Ascot can go to Ireland and in particular the yard of Willie Mullins who won this race two years ago with Simenon. His representative this year has similar potential after switching codes and has been well backed after Pricewise put him up as a selection. It is nothing short of a miracle that he is still with us after a serious bout of colic put his life in jeopardy, however he is back to full fitness and ready to perform on the big stage once more. He made his reappearance at the Curragh and far from disgraced himself after travelling into the race strongly and getting hampered before tiring behind Thomas Edison. The ground was likely a bit too soft for him that day and it is no secret that Pique Sous needs lightning fast ground which he gets today. This will be his first attempt at a race further than 17 furlongs but stamina shouldn't be an issue and with Ryan Moore booked is taken to finish Royal Ascot in style. (6/1)
5:50 Newmarket - Dutch Art Dealer
We end the day with Dutch Art Dealer who shaped as a promising two year old and entered the notebook after his debut against the ill fated Piping Rock. He travelled supremely well that day and was the last left on the bridle before getting outpaced and staying on in good style for third. Next up he went to Windsor where he won a maiden in nice style but looks sure to appreciate seven furlongs more than the six he ran over then. His latest run came over seven furlongs but nothing seemed to go right for him, he started slowly which always put him on the back foot, then turning for home he faced more trouble. After angling out wide he managed to find his best stride but when he did he absolutely flew home before just running out of time. If things fall right for him today then a three pound higher mark shouldn't be enough to stop him and is taken to round the day off in style. (6/1)
NAP - Slade Power
Nb - Stars Above Me
Thank you to everyone who has read the blog this week and as always, happy punting!
Thursday 19 June 2014
Royal Ascot Day Four
Good morning/evening everyone I hope our pockets are still lined with a bit of cash after yesterday with Cannock Chase winning but on the face of it we struggled a bit. We move onto today with a couple of strong fancies but it doesn't get much easier does it?
As always we have a video preview prepared for you but as a little bonus we have also interviewed Martin Smith who is the trainer of Hillbilly Boy. He talks us through the chances of his first ever Royal Ascot runner and of course we wish him luck with today's race. However we still have our normal preview video but it may be a tad rushed as we wanted to watch England's latest disappointment in Brazil... Our apologies for that. Joining me on the panel tonight were the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours, enjoy the video's!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=225GYBl1LVc (Martin Smith interview)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e98xj5R5t8 (Preview video)
Now onto today's action!
Albany Stakes - Sexy Legs
Connections are obviously very confident about Sexy Legs' ability as she was engaged in a Conditions race for her debut before opting to run in a maiden instead. She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and only missed out on the bob, but she travelled into the race with great style before showing tremendous battling qualities. If she builds on that opening effort then she won't be far away but a big danger could come in the form of Bitter Lake who won well on debut. That was a rare debut winner for Charlie Appleby this season as most of his two year old's have come on for the run so it will be interesting to see how she performs. Sexy Legs to improve on her debut however and go one better in the Albany.
1st - Sexy Legs
2nd - Bitter Lake
3rd - Patience Alexander
Wolferton Handicap - Dick Doughtywylie
John Gosden has two winners to his name at Royal Ascot so far with Kingman and The Fugue but he can make it a hat trick here with Dick Doughtywylie. We haven't seen him since pushing Grandeur to a head on all weather championships day at Lingfield back in April, but he comes here in good form which is more than you can say about most in the race. His form has undoubtedly improved since the application of a tongue tie three runs ago and that could just be the key to him as his form since is 142. There is a distinct possibility of a lack of pace here as well which would suit him as he is one that likes to sit close to the pace. The main danger could come in the form of the frustrating and strong travelling Cafe Society, however he is one that will need a strong pace. We side with Dick Doughtywylie however to add another victory for John Gosden and we hope he isn't done yet.
1st - Dick Doughtywylie
2nd - Cafe Society
3rd - First Mohican
King Edward VII Stakes - Western Hymn
The John Gosden show continues here with Western Hymn who is the mount of Richard Hughes as William Buick opts for the unexposed Eagle Top. He had a troubled passage at Epsom in the Derby and in truth his race never really took off, however he did stay on for sixth which shows his true ability. He has also clashed with Snow Sky at Newbury over two furlongs shorter but won that eased down and you would be surprised if that were to change. The only worry for me would be the faster ground however he handled it well enough at Epsom and he is unbeaten when going right handed from two attempts. Western Hymn to make it two on the day for Mr Gosden.
1st - Western Hymn
2nd - Adelaide
3rd - Eagle Top
Coronation Stakes - Rizeena
Clive Brittain was very bullish about Rizeena for the 1000 Guineas but she came undone by the slow pace and could never stamp her mark on the race. As a two year old she looked the leading filly along with the late Chriselliam after winning the Queen Mary and a Group One in the Moyglare. She is also racefit now which should put her right amongst the main competitors and Ryan Moore is back on board which is a huge positive. One that could go well at a price is Euro Charline who was ahead of Rizeena at Newmarket and is another that would benefit from a good gallop, Kiyoshi however missed the Guineas and holds solid each way claims here. We go for Rizeena who looks a bit like the forgotten horse to get her career back on track today in the Coronation Stakes.
1st - Rizeena
2nd - Kiyoshi
3rd - Euro Charline
Queen's Vase - Marzocco
Now for John Gosden's strongest representative today in Marzocco who has shaped well on each occasion this term and will be suited by the step up in trip. He was fancied by connections in the Epsom Derby Trial but found one too good on that occasion and the same happened again at Goodwood behind Observational. On the face of it, the form of his last run would probably be good enough to win this as long as he handles the stamina test as it is a pretty weak race, but Hartnell could be the one standing in his way. As a two year old he promised so much and was a genuine Derby contender, however things haven't gone his way this year and he is another who takes a step up in trip. Marzocco looks like a stayer and connections went close in this race last year with Feel Like Dancing so they will be hoping to go one better.
1st - Marzocco
2nd - Hartnell
3rd - The Corsican
Buckingham Palace Stakes - Pastoral Player
If you have high blood pressure or a heart condition then the final selection of the day probably isn't for you as he has been called every name under the sun in his time. However he did post a good performance off a pound higher mark on his seasonal reappearance when the ground was probably too soft for his liking. Today he has everything in his favour and he hasn't shown any signs of losing his ability as he was contesting Group races last season. Hillbilly Boy has improved 27 pounds this season for Martin Smith and it would be no surprise if he could post a good performance once more, although there are worries about the ground for him. Georgian Bay is better than he showed in the Victoria Cup as he was drawn on the wrong side but still ran an admirable race that day and has each way claims. But for win purposes we stick with Pastoral Player who could have a bit of give in his handicap mark.
1st - Pastoral Player
2nd - Hillbilly Boy
3rd - Blessington
4th - Georgian Bay
NAP - Marzocco
Nb - Rizeena
Good luck today guys and as always, happy punting!
As always we have a video preview prepared for you but as a little bonus we have also interviewed Martin Smith who is the trainer of Hillbilly Boy. He talks us through the chances of his first ever Royal Ascot runner and of course we wish him luck with today's race. However we still have our normal preview video but it may be a tad rushed as we wanted to watch England's latest disappointment in Brazil... Our apologies for that. Joining me on the panel tonight were the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours, enjoy the video's!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=225GYBl1LVc (Martin Smith interview)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e98xj5R5t8 (Preview video)
Now onto today's action!
Albany Stakes - Sexy Legs
Connections are obviously very confident about Sexy Legs' ability as she was engaged in a Conditions race for her debut before opting to run in a maiden instead. She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and only missed out on the bob, but she travelled into the race with great style before showing tremendous battling qualities. If she builds on that opening effort then she won't be far away but a big danger could come in the form of Bitter Lake who won well on debut. That was a rare debut winner for Charlie Appleby this season as most of his two year old's have come on for the run so it will be interesting to see how she performs. Sexy Legs to improve on her debut however and go one better in the Albany.
1st - Sexy Legs
2nd - Bitter Lake
3rd - Patience Alexander
Wolferton Handicap - Dick Doughtywylie
John Gosden has two winners to his name at Royal Ascot so far with Kingman and The Fugue but he can make it a hat trick here with Dick Doughtywylie. We haven't seen him since pushing Grandeur to a head on all weather championships day at Lingfield back in April, but he comes here in good form which is more than you can say about most in the race. His form has undoubtedly improved since the application of a tongue tie three runs ago and that could just be the key to him as his form since is 142. There is a distinct possibility of a lack of pace here as well which would suit him as he is one that likes to sit close to the pace. The main danger could come in the form of the frustrating and strong travelling Cafe Society, however he is one that will need a strong pace. We side with Dick Doughtywylie however to add another victory for John Gosden and we hope he isn't done yet.
1st - Dick Doughtywylie
2nd - Cafe Society
3rd - First Mohican
King Edward VII Stakes - Western Hymn
The John Gosden show continues here with Western Hymn who is the mount of Richard Hughes as William Buick opts for the unexposed Eagle Top. He had a troubled passage at Epsom in the Derby and in truth his race never really took off, however he did stay on for sixth which shows his true ability. He has also clashed with Snow Sky at Newbury over two furlongs shorter but won that eased down and you would be surprised if that were to change. The only worry for me would be the faster ground however he handled it well enough at Epsom and he is unbeaten when going right handed from two attempts. Western Hymn to make it two on the day for Mr Gosden.
1st - Western Hymn
2nd - Adelaide
3rd - Eagle Top
Coronation Stakes - Rizeena
Clive Brittain was very bullish about Rizeena for the 1000 Guineas but she came undone by the slow pace and could never stamp her mark on the race. As a two year old she looked the leading filly along with the late Chriselliam after winning the Queen Mary and a Group One in the Moyglare. She is also racefit now which should put her right amongst the main competitors and Ryan Moore is back on board which is a huge positive. One that could go well at a price is Euro Charline who was ahead of Rizeena at Newmarket and is another that would benefit from a good gallop, Kiyoshi however missed the Guineas and holds solid each way claims here. We go for Rizeena who looks a bit like the forgotten horse to get her career back on track today in the Coronation Stakes.
1st - Rizeena
2nd - Kiyoshi
3rd - Euro Charline
Queen's Vase - Marzocco
Now for John Gosden's strongest representative today in Marzocco who has shaped well on each occasion this term and will be suited by the step up in trip. He was fancied by connections in the Epsom Derby Trial but found one too good on that occasion and the same happened again at Goodwood behind Observational. On the face of it, the form of his last run would probably be good enough to win this as long as he handles the stamina test as it is a pretty weak race, but Hartnell could be the one standing in his way. As a two year old he promised so much and was a genuine Derby contender, however things haven't gone his way this year and he is another who takes a step up in trip. Marzocco looks like a stayer and connections went close in this race last year with Feel Like Dancing so they will be hoping to go one better.
1st - Marzocco
2nd - Hartnell
3rd - The Corsican
Buckingham Palace Stakes - Pastoral Player
If you have high blood pressure or a heart condition then the final selection of the day probably isn't for you as he has been called every name under the sun in his time. However he did post a good performance off a pound higher mark on his seasonal reappearance when the ground was probably too soft for his liking. Today he has everything in his favour and he hasn't shown any signs of losing his ability as he was contesting Group races last season. Hillbilly Boy has improved 27 pounds this season for Martin Smith and it would be no surprise if he could post a good performance once more, although there are worries about the ground for him. Georgian Bay is better than he showed in the Victoria Cup as he was drawn on the wrong side but still ran an admirable race that day and has each way claims. But for win purposes we stick with Pastoral Player who could have a bit of give in his handicap mark.
1st - Pastoral Player
2nd - Hillbilly Boy
3rd - Blessington
4th - Georgian Bay
NAP - Marzocco
Nb - Rizeena
Good luck today guys and as always, happy punting!
Wednesday 18 June 2014
Royal Ascot Day Three
Good evening/morning everyone, today marks the halfway point of Royal Ascot and we are doing well to be ahead of the bookmakers so far. Yesterday was a good day as Integral and Muteela both won with Ayaar placing in the Hunt Cup as long as you backed him with a bookmaker offering first five places. We also managed to find the first two home in the last race as Queen Catrine was narrowly denied by the selection Muteela. But today is a new day and we must be fit and ready to do the same again this afternoon.
As always we have a video preview prepared for you as we mark your card for the third day of Royal Ascot. Joining me on the panel today are @Adamwebb121 and @Calummadell with the latter having a winning nap today and the two agreeing on today's nap. Find the video via the link below and we hope you enjoy the show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qg3xjYZxMM
Now onto today's racing!
Norfolk Stakes - Mukhmal
All the hype in today's opener will be surround Ballydoyle's representative The Great War, who has been impressive in two starts to date. He was also scheduled to run in the Coventry on day one but has been diverted to here which seems an odd move to many including myself. Nothing about him screams that he is a genuine five furlong horse as he doesn't lack any size but is clearly not short on any speed as shown so far. However today's race will be a different experience for him as he will be running against genuine five furlong horses and may be vulnerable to something with a bit more toe.
That 'something' may be Mukhmal who is also undefeated after two starts and was mightily impressive on debut, when winning a conditions race without being fully extended. He built on that in good style when winning nicely from an impossible draw at Chester and once again showed an fantastic cruising speed before quickening away turning for home. The runner up in that race was a good seventh in Tuesday's Windsor Castle Stakes and with the form taking a minor boost we side with Mukhmal to land the opener.
1st - Mukhmal
2nd - The Great War
3rd - Snap Shots
Tercentenary Stakes - Cannock Chase
It was hard not to be impressed with Cannock Chase last time out at Newbury when beating Windshear by a length and a quarter which could be strong form. That was only a handicap whereas today is a big step up in class as it is his first try in a Group Three, but he is full of potential. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute teamed up to win with Integral yesterday and they won this race with Glass Harmonium in 2009. Cannock Chase was fairly keen early on that day but the stronger pace promised today will suit and should help him settle. Cannock Chase to land the Tercentenary.
1st - Cannock Chase
2nd - Mutakayyef
3rd - Barley Mow
Ribblesdale Stakes - Bright Approach
No prizes for guessing the sire of Bright Approach but she has a way to go if she is to be as good as him after a poorer performance at Chester. Upon further inspection she didn't like the course at all and she will likely improve for faster ground as it was rather testing last time out. She also faces a step up in trip today which looks to be in her favour on breeding and after staying on in good style last time out. Before that she beat a useful field in her maiden including the more than capable Marsh Daisy and was impressive when quickening twice over a shorter trip and looking a class horse. Bright Approach to get her career back on track and win the Ribblesdale.
1st - Bright Approach
2nd - Inchila
3rd - Wonderstruck
Ascot Gold Cup - Brown Panther
Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have struggled a little bit so far this Royal Ascot but confidence will be high with Brown Panther after winning at Sandown. That was in a Group Three so he takes a big step up in class as well as a step up in trip, but in all honesty neither should be too much for him. He has won twice over two miles at Group level and he hasn't looked like stopping on either occasion which bodes well for any stamina doubts. There are also a few doubts about his ability to handle the ground after his two wins this season have come on soft ground, he has won on good to firm and good ground twice each though so that should be no problem for him. Brown Panther to stake his claims on being Europe's top stayer.
1st - Brown Panther
2nd - Leading Light
3rd - Ahzeemah
Britannia Stakes - First Flight
After the way things have played out on the first few days, First Flight could not be worse drawn as he must come out of stall one on the far side. However they are watering overnight which may soften the ground up slightly and he looks to have more than enough class to overcome the bias. As you will probably know by now I actually backed him for the 2000 Guineas this year after his impressive debut at Newbury, but he has turned out to be a horse who needs a bit of time. We haven't seen him to best effect so far this season as he has encountered bottomless ground on each occasion but has still ran well in spite of that. Today he will finally get his fast ground which should see him show his true ability and the jockey booking of Kieren Fallon is a very strong one. First Flight to bounce back to winning ways on faster ground.
1st - First Flight
2nd - Hunters Creek
3rd - Idea
4th - Zarwaan
King George V Stakes - Windshear
We will be hoping that Cannock Chase can win earlier on to boost the form of Windshear who chased him home at Newbury in the London Gold Cup. He ran well that day off a four pound lower mark and the step up to twelve furlongs looks a very positive one after staying on late last time. Before that he tore apart a competitive handicap at Sandown on bottomless ground but has since proved that he can handle faster ground. On the back of that it seems that he is a very versatile horse and one that we still haven't seen the best of, for that reason he is taken to land the closer on day three with Arab Dawn the big danger.
1st - Windshear
2nd - Arab Dawn
3rd - Stars Over The Sea
4th - Elite Army
NAP - Cannock Chase
Nb - Mukhmal
Good luck tomorrow guys and as always, happy punting!!
As always we have a video preview prepared for you as we mark your card for the third day of Royal Ascot. Joining me on the panel today are @Adamwebb121 and @Calummadell with the latter having a winning nap today and the two agreeing on today's nap. Find the video via the link below and we hope you enjoy the show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qg3xjYZxMM
Now onto today's racing!
Norfolk Stakes - Mukhmal
All the hype in today's opener will be surround Ballydoyle's representative The Great War, who has been impressive in two starts to date. He was also scheduled to run in the Coventry on day one but has been diverted to here which seems an odd move to many including myself. Nothing about him screams that he is a genuine five furlong horse as he doesn't lack any size but is clearly not short on any speed as shown so far. However today's race will be a different experience for him as he will be running against genuine five furlong horses and may be vulnerable to something with a bit more toe.
That 'something' may be Mukhmal who is also undefeated after two starts and was mightily impressive on debut, when winning a conditions race without being fully extended. He built on that in good style when winning nicely from an impossible draw at Chester and once again showed an fantastic cruising speed before quickening away turning for home. The runner up in that race was a good seventh in Tuesday's Windsor Castle Stakes and with the form taking a minor boost we side with Mukhmal to land the opener.
1st - Mukhmal
2nd - The Great War
3rd - Snap Shots
Tercentenary Stakes - Cannock Chase
It was hard not to be impressed with Cannock Chase last time out at Newbury when beating Windshear by a length and a quarter which could be strong form. That was only a handicap whereas today is a big step up in class as it is his first try in a Group Three, but he is full of potential. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute teamed up to win with Integral yesterday and they won this race with Glass Harmonium in 2009. Cannock Chase was fairly keen early on that day but the stronger pace promised today will suit and should help him settle. Cannock Chase to land the Tercentenary.
1st - Cannock Chase
2nd - Mutakayyef
3rd - Barley Mow
Ribblesdale Stakes - Bright Approach
No prizes for guessing the sire of Bright Approach but she has a way to go if she is to be as good as him after a poorer performance at Chester. Upon further inspection she didn't like the course at all and she will likely improve for faster ground as it was rather testing last time out. She also faces a step up in trip today which looks to be in her favour on breeding and after staying on in good style last time out. Before that she beat a useful field in her maiden including the more than capable Marsh Daisy and was impressive when quickening twice over a shorter trip and looking a class horse. Bright Approach to get her career back on track and win the Ribblesdale.
1st - Bright Approach
2nd - Inchila
3rd - Wonderstruck
Ascot Gold Cup - Brown Panther
Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have struggled a little bit so far this Royal Ascot but confidence will be high with Brown Panther after winning at Sandown. That was in a Group Three so he takes a big step up in class as well as a step up in trip, but in all honesty neither should be too much for him. He has won twice over two miles at Group level and he hasn't looked like stopping on either occasion which bodes well for any stamina doubts. There are also a few doubts about his ability to handle the ground after his two wins this season have come on soft ground, he has won on good to firm and good ground twice each though so that should be no problem for him. Brown Panther to stake his claims on being Europe's top stayer.
1st - Brown Panther
2nd - Leading Light
3rd - Ahzeemah
Britannia Stakes - First Flight
After the way things have played out on the first few days, First Flight could not be worse drawn as he must come out of stall one on the far side. However they are watering overnight which may soften the ground up slightly and he looks to have more than enough class to overcome the bias. As you will probably know by now I actually backed him for the 2000 Guineas this year after his impressive debut at Newbury, but he has turned out to be a horse who needs a bit of time. We haven't seen him to best effect so far this season as he has encountered bottomless ground on each occasion but has still ran well in spite of that. Today he will finally get his fast ground which should see him show his true ability and the jockey booking of Kieren Fallon is a very strong one. First Flight to bounce back to winning ways on faster ground.
1st - First Flight
2nd - Hunters Creek
3rd - Idea
4th - Zarwaan
King George V Stakes - Windshear
We will be hoping that Cannock Chase can win earlier on to boost the form of Windshear who chased him home at Newbury in the London Gold Cup. He ran well that day off a four pound lower mark and the step up to twelve furlongs looks a very positive one after staying on late last time. Before that he tore apart a competitive handicap at Sandown on bottomless ground but has since proved that he can handle faster ground. On the back of that it seems that he is a very versatile horse and one that we still haven't seen the best of, for that reason he is taken to land the closer on day three with Arab Dawn the big danger.
1st - Windshear
2nd - Arab Dawn
3rd - Stars Over The Sea
4th - Elite Army
NAP - Cannock Chase
Nb - Mukhmal
Good luck tomorrow guys and as always, happy punting!!
Tuesday 17 June 2014
Royal Ascot Day Two
Good morning/evening to you all I hope you enjoyed day one of Royal Ascot and found a couple of winners from the blog courtesy of Sole Power and the NAP Hootenanny. Day two features some top class action including the 2013 Arc heroine Treve as she does battle with Mukhadram and The Fugue, we are also treated to the return of Sky Lantern. We had a good day yesterday but the rising sun will bring round a new day and we must be prepared to go again.
As always we have a video preview prepared for you tonight, joining me on the panel are the regular lot of @Adamwebb121, @Mytentoryours and @Calummadell. You can watch the videos by clicking on the link below, we hope you enjoy our preview after a successful first day. If you have any questions regarding day three of Royal Ascot please leave them in the comments section below!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxvRZZTtgOk
Now onto today's action!
Jersey Stakes - That Is The Spirit
Dave O'Meara takes another step up in class today with That Is The Spirit after winning a listed race at Epsom. We have only seen him on a racecourse three times but he has impressed more and more on each occasion and won off a mark of 90 and top weight on his second start. He took a big step forward last time out however when not particularly handling the Epsom track when making all and repelling the late challenge of Parbold, who re-opposes this afternoon. The biggest danger could however come in the form of Sudirman who needed the run last time out and should be spot on for today. He won the Group One Phoenix Stakes last year for which he carries a five pound penalty but we will find out how well he has progressed into a three year old today. That Is The Spirit to take all the beating however.
1st - That Is The Spirit
2nd - Sudirman
3rd - Mustajeeb
Queen Mary Stakes - Spanish Pipedream
The Windsor Castle field got blown away yesterday by Wesley Ward's first runner in Hootenanny and he has another exciting prospect here with Spanish Pipedream. Unlike her stablemate she comes to Royal Ascot unbeaten but this is only her second outing after blowing away her opposition at Keeneland. She showed tremendous early speed that day but matched that with a good turn of foot to put the race to bed in nice style. The main danger looks sure to be Tiggy Wiggy who was mightily impressive at Sandown in the National Stakes, the same race won by Rizeena before victorious in this race last year. But we side with Spanish Pipedream to provide America with their second winner of the meeting.
1st - Spanish Pipedream
2nd - Tiggy Wiggy
3rd - Harry's Dancer
Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Mukhadram
Mukhadram seldom runs a bad race and that was the case once more when he finished second in the Dubai World Cup and once again in this race last year. He found only Al Kazeem too good that day which is nothing to be ashamed of before being hampered late on when third in the eclipse after making the running. He used them tactics to full effect at York when beating Grandeur but could manage no better than fifth on Champions Day behind Farhh when held up. A return to his dominating tactics will suit him today and an easy lead looks assured which will benefit him greatly under Paul Hanagan. The obvious danger is last year's Arc winner Treve but The Fugue could also figure at the end on ground she will love, Mukhadram is taken to steal it from the front however.
1st - Mukhadram
2nd - Treve
3rd - The Fugue
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes - Integral
Integral and Sky Lantern locked horns at the back end of last season with the latter coming on top, however she must give her rival five pounds today and comes here without a prep run. Integral however was seen at Newmarket on Guineas weekend when just losing out to Esoterique, but she lost nothing in defeat that day and is fancied to turn the tables as she is racefit. Sir Michael Stoute bought her along slowly last season culminating in defeat to the more experienced Sky Lantern and a dead heat in a Group Three at Sandown. This season should see her improve once more and it can start today with her first win in a Group Two.
1st - Integral
2nd - Certify
3rd - Sky Lantern
Royal Hunt Cup - Ayaar
Al Shaqab had a memorable day yesterday with Toronado and The Wow Signal and they can add a big handicap to their tally with Ayaar for Luca Cumani and Frankie Dettori. He was last seen when a staying on fourth in the Victoria Cup over a furlong shorter and off the same mark as today, suggesting today was always the long term aim. The return to faster ground looks a positive and with the stable in a good run of form he could be hard to beat with Artigiano looking a big danger for Godolphin.
1st - Ayaar
2nd - Artigiano
3rd - Short Squeeze
4th - Burano
Sandringham Handicap - Muteela
A more than muddling Sandringham up next with preference for the unbeaten Muteela after she won impressively at Newmarket last time out. She made all that day and had everything else in trouble with two furlongs to go and then quickened in good style to repel the charge of Pretzel. Her last two efforts have seen her make all the running which will be difficult today, but on debut she came from just behind the running proving her flexibility. Majeyda could be one that challenges the selection for the lead as she takes a step back in trip from her 1000 Guineas effort, but her Nell Gwyn run would see her go close. Queen Catrine is another to consider back on lightning fast ground but the progressive Muteela is taken for win purposes.
1st - Muteela
2nd - Queen Catrine
3rd - Majeyda
NAP - Spanish Pipedream
NB - Integral
Good luck today guys and ask always, happy punting!!
As always we have a video preview prepared for you tonight, joining me on the panel are the regular lot of @Adamwebb121, @Mytentoryours and @Calummadell. You can watch the videos by clicking on the link below, we hope you enjoy our preview after a successful first day. If you have any questions regarding day three of Royal Ascot please leave them in the comments section below!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxvRZZTtgOk
Now onto today's action!
Jersey Stakes - That Is The Spirit
Dave O'Meara takes another step up in class today with That Is The Spirit after winning a listed race at Epsom. We have only seen him on a racecourse three times but he has impressed more and more on each occasion and won off a mark of 90 and top weight on his second start. He took a big step forward last time out however when not particularly handling the Epsom track when making all and repelling the late challenge of Parbold, who re-opposes this afternoon. The biggest danger could however come in the form of Sudirman who needed the run last time out and should be spot on for today. He won the Group One Phoenix Stakes last year for which he carries a five pound penalty but we will find out how well he has progressed into a three year old today. That Is The Spirit to take all the beating however.
1st - That Is The Spirit
2nd - Sudirman
3rd - Mustajeeb
Queen Mary Stakes - Spanish Pipedream
The Windsor Castle field got blown away yesterday by Wesley Ward's first runner in Hootenanny and he has another exciting prospect here with Spanish Pipedream. Unlike her stablemate she comes to Royal Ascot unbeaten but this is only her second outing after blowing away her opposition at Keeneland. She showed tremendous early speed that day but matched that with a good turn of foot to put the race to bed in nice style. The main danger looks sure to be Tiggy Wiggy who was mightily impressive at Sandown in the National Stakes, the same race won by Rizeena before victorious in this race last year. But we side with Spanish Pipedream to provide America with their second winner of the meeting.
1st - Spanish Pipedream
2nd - Tiggy Wiggy
3rd - Harry's Dancer
Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Mukhadram
Mukhadram seldom runs a bad race and that was the case once more when he finished second in the Dubai World Cup and once again in this race last year. He found only Al Kazeem too good that day which is nothing to be ashamed of before being hampered late on when third in the eclipse after making the running. He used them tactics to full effect at York when beating Grandeur but could manage no better than fifth on Champions Day behind Farhh when held up. A return to his dominating tactics will suit him today and an easy lead looks assured which will benefit him greatly under Paul Hanagan. The obvious danger is last year's Arc winner Treve but The Fugue could also figure at the end on ground she will love, Mukhadram is taken to steal it from the front however.
1st - Mukhadram
2nd - Treve
3rd - The Fugue
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes - Integral
Integral and Sky Lantern locked horns at the back end of last season with the latter coming on top, however she must give her rival five pounds today and comes here without a prep run. Integral however was seen at Newmarket on Guineas weekend when just losing out to Esoterique, but she lost nothing in defeat that day and is fancied to turn the tables as she is racefit. Sir Michael Stoute bought her along slowly last season culminating in defeat to the more experienced Sky Lantern and a dead heat in a Group Three at Sandown. This season should see her improve once more and it can start today with her first win in a Group Two.
1st - Integral
2nd - Certify
3rd - Sky Lantern
Royal Hunt Cup - Ayaar
Al Shaqab had a memorable day yesterday with Toronado and The Wow Signal and they can add a big handicap to their tally with Ayaar for Luca Cumani and Frankie Dettori. He was last seen when a staying on fourth in the Victoria Cup over a furlong shorter and off the same mark as today, suggesting today was always the long term aim. The return to faster ground looks a positive and with the stable in a good run of form he could be hard to beat with Artigiano looking a big danger for Godolphin.
1st - Ayaar
2nd - Artigiano
3rd - Short Squeeze
4th - Burano
Sandringham Handicap - Muteela
A more than muddling Sandringham up next with preference for the unbeaten Muteela after she won impressively at Newmarket last time out. She made all that day and had everything else in trouble with two furlongs to go and then quickened in good style to repel the charge of Pretzel. Her last two efforts have seen her make all the running which will be difficult today, but on debut she came from just behind the running proving her flexibility. Majeyda could be one that challenges the selection for the lead as she takes a step back in trip from her 1000 Guineas effort, but her Nell Gwyn run would see her go close. Queen Catrine is another to consider back on lightning fast ground but the progressive Muteela is taken for win purposes.
1st - Muteela
2nd - Queen Catrine
3rd - Majeyda
NAP - Spanish Pipedream
NB - Integral
Good luck today guys and ask always, happy punting!!
Monday 16 June 2014
Royal Ascot Day One
Good morning/evening and welcome to the first of many blogs this week for Royal Ascot. Last year we were treated to Declaration Of War and War Command with the latter looking to go back to back at Royal Ascot after winning the 2013 Coventry Stakes. Sole Power also looks to gain his second Royal Ascot win as he goes for the King's Stand once more, but last year's runner up Shea Shea also lines up in the field.
As always we have a video preview lined up for you tonight as we will for every day of Royal Ascot this week. Joining me as always are @Calummadell, @Adamwebb121 and @Mytentoryours, if you have any questions regarding day two of Royal Ascot please leave them in the comment area below. We hope you enjoy the video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wysfRdFXB18&feature=youtu.be (Live at 8pm)
Now onto today's selections for the first day of Royal Ascot 2014
Queen Anne Stakes - Verrazano
Verrazano made his debut on this side of the pond in the Lockinge at Newbury, after switching to Ballydoyle from Todd Pletcher's yard in America where he was a good horse in his own right. On his British debut he managed a staying on third behind Olympic Glory but you would fully expect him to improve for the experience and he wasn't given a particularly hard time when beat. Today he runs into his victor's stablemate in Toronado who hasn't had a run yet this season meaning his fitness must be taken on trust alone. Tullius was also ahead of the selection in the Lockinge but was fully extended to do so and god the perfect passage into the race. Verrazano to win the Queen Anne for the second time in as many years for Ballydoyle.
1st - Verrazano
2nd - Toronado
Coventry Stakes - Capella Sansevero
The Coventry took a big hit when Aidan O'Brien declared War Envoy and announced that The Great War will run in the Norfolk Stakes instead. Despite being beaten fair and square by Kool Kompany last time out the Ballydoyle representative was immediately put in as favourite for the race which baffled many. But after hours of endless form reading I have landed on one selection but admittedly still find it hard to separate three contenders.
Adaay seems like a good place to start out of the three as he is the most fancied in the market after beating Mind Of Madness who runs in the Windsor Castle today. He absolutely tanked through the race that day and will likely appreciate the stronger pace this afternoon, however he showed he had a good turn of foot as well on debut at Newbury. Paul Hanagan gave him no more than a couple of slaps down the neck and a bit of a squeeze that day which would signify he had more left at the end but definitely looks one more for the future, although a victory today would be no shock whatsoever.
One of the pace angles could well be Justice Good after he showed tremendous battling qualities on his last two outings including under a huge weight last time out. The services of Ryan Moore have been booked today and will be tough to pass if he gets to the front but preference is for the Ger Lyons trained Capella Sansevero.
With three appearances to his name he is one of the most experienced in the field but is yet to face defeat despite running in good company. On his only try over 6 furlongs he held on against Dick Whittington who won at the weekend but that was on softer ground and he showed his true class last time over five furlongs. One last point in his favour is that on a form line through Toscanini he is ahead of Kool Kompany as well as War Envoy but remains a bigger price than both of them. Capella Sansevero to win the first two year old race at Royal Ascot this year.
1st - Capella Sansevero
2nd - Adaay
3rd - Justice Good
Kings Stand Stakes - Sole Power
Eddie Lynam's colt has been a top class sprinter for a long time now including when victorious in this race last season with Shea Shea narrowly back in second. He has only won once since then in the Group 3 Palace House at Newmarket but has been placed in a couple of Group 1's including in Sha Tin behind Lord Kanaloa. One of his main rivals is Hot Streak who won the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock, a race in which Sole Power missed due to the soft ground, however when the two met at Newmarket on similar terms the selection came out the victor. Shea Shea beat Sole Power back in Meydan and they are closely matched from last year's race so he could prove the biggest danger, but Sole Power is preferred to make it three wins in the first three races for Ireland.
1st - Sole Power
2nd - Shea Shea
3rd - Steps
St. James's Palace Stakes - Night Of Thunder
Now for many people's (including mine) race of the meeting as Kingman and Night Of Thunder lock horns once more after the latter got his revenge in the 2000 Guineas. This came after Kingman had made light work of him in the Greenham at Newbury but in truth Night Of Thunder looked around 60% fit. As mentioned in the Guineas blog his coat was dull, he looked a little short of work and if I didn't know better he seemed a bit lame in the prelims, with all that taken into account he has run a massive race in the Greenham. Newmarket was a different story though as he was gleaming in his coat and walking round the parade ring with great presence and his performance reflected that.
I also couldn't disagree more with people saying Kingman was at a disadvantage by the way the race was run at Newmarket. Early on James Doyle was tracking the eventual winner before moving out wide and sitting just behind Noozoh Canarias who made the running on the far side. Kingman then picked up the lead at the furlong pole with a clear run whereas Night Of Thunder had to manoeuver through horses to pick up Kingman. What part of that suggests an inconvenience to Kingman? We side Night Of Thunder and Richard Hughes to provide England with their first Royal Ascot winner.
1st - Night Of Thunder
2nd - Kingman
Ascot Stakes - Brockwell
The duo of Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have been in flying form recently and they are represented by Brockwell here who has Cheek Pieces on first time. He made his seasonal reappearance in the Chester Cup when he was drawn wide and never really overcame that draw as he was posted three or four wide the whole way. Keeping that in mind it was a good effort to stay on for fourth on ground that probably was softer than ideal and definitely not Good as officially stated. If the going at Chester was slightly off then the going at Haydock could not have been more wrong as it was nearer to bottomless than good ground. As a result of the ground they went a slow pace throughout causing Brockwell to pull very hard early on with the hood off for the first time in a while. Brockwell is taken to land this back on his preferred good ground.
1st - Brockwell
2nd - Ballinderry Boy
3rd - Suraj
4th - Waterclock
Windsor Castle Stakes - Hootenanny
Wesley Ward won the Norfolk with No Nay Never last year and he says Hootenanny is his best chance of a winner this meeting and it's easy to tell why after seeing his debut. That came over four and a half furlongs on the Keeneland polytrack but he has since been beat at Pimlico on that beautiful American 'going description' of Sloppy which is more than forgivable. On debut he showed fantastic early speed and still won going away after being challenged turning for home although he never really looked in too much trouble. If he jumps out of the gate this afternoon then it will take a very good horse to catch him on the front end and he is taken to land this for America.
1st - Hootenanny
2nd - Mind Of Madness
3rd - Roudee
NAP - Hootenanny
Nb - Night Of Thunder
Good luck everyone and as always, happy punting!
As always we have a video preview lined up for you tonight as we will for every day of Royal Ascot this week. Joining me as always are @Calummadell, @Adamwebb121 and @Mytentoryours, if you have any questions regarding day two of Royal Ascot please leave them in the comment area below. We hope you enjoy the video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wysfRdFXB18&feature=youtu.be (Live at 8pm)
Now onto today's selections for the first day of Royal Ascot 2014
Queen Anne Stakes - Verrazano
Verrazano made his debut on this side of the pond in the Lockinge at Newbury, after switching to Ballydoyle from Todd Pletcher's yard in America where he was a good horse in his own right. On his British debut he managed a staying on third behind Olympic Glory but you would fully expect him to improve for the experience and he wasn't given a particularly hard time when beat. Today he runs into his victor's stablemate in Toronado who hasn't had a run yet this season meaning his fitness must be taken on trust alone. Tullius was also ahead of the selection in the Lockinge but was fully extended to do so and god the perfect passage into the race. Verrazano to win the Queen Anne for the second time in as many years for Ballydoyle.
1st - Verrazano
2nd - Toronado
Coventry Stakes - Capella Sansevero
The Coventry took a big hit when Aidan O'Brien declared War Envoy and announced that The Great War will run in the Norfolk Stakes instead. Despite being beaten fair and square by Kool Kompany last time out the Ballydoyle representative was immediately put in as favourite for the race which baffled many. But after hours of endless form reading I have landed on one selection but admittedly still find it hard to separate three contenders.
Adaay seems like a good place to start out of the three as he is the most fancied in the market after beating Mind Of Madness who runs in the Windsor Castle today. He absolutely tanked through the race that day and will likely appreciate the stronger pace this afternoon, however he showed he had a good turn of foot as well on debut at Newbury. Paul Hanagan gave him no more than a couple of slaps down the neck and a bit of a squeeze that day which would signify he had more left at the end but definitely looks one more for the future, although a victory today would be no shock whatsoever.
One of the pace angles could well be Justice Good after he showed tremendous battling qualities on his last two outings including under a huge weight last time out. The services of Ryan Moore have been booked today and will be tough to pass if he gets to the front but preference is for the Ger Lyons trained Capella Sansevero.
With three appearances to his name he is one of the most experienced in the field but is yet to face defeat despite running in good company. On his only try over 6 furlongs he held on against Dick Whittington who won at the weekend but that was on softer ground and he showed his true class last time over five furlongs. One last point in his favour is that on a form line through Toscanini he is ahead of Kool Kompany as well as War Envoy but remains a bigger price than both of them. Capella Sansevero to win the first two year old race at Royal Ascot this year.
1st - Capella Sansevero
2nd - Adaay
3rd - Justice Good
Kings Stand Stakes - Sole Power
Eddie Lynam's colt has been a top class sprinter for a long time now including when victorious in this race last season with Shea Shea narrowly back in second. He has only won once since then in the Group 3 Palace House at Newmarket but has been placed in a couple of Group 1's including in Sha Tin behind Lord Kanaloa. One of his main rivals is Hot Streak who won the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock, a race in which Sole Power missed due to the soft ground, however when the two met at Newmarket on similar terms the selection came out the victor. Shea Shea beat Sole Power back in Meydan and they are closely matched from last year's race so he could prove the biggest danger, but Sole Power is preferred to make it three wins in the first three races for Ireland.
1st - Sole Power
2nd - Shea Shea
3rd - Steps
St. James's Palace Stakes - Night Of Thunder
Now for many people's (including mine) race of the meeting as Kingman and Night Of Thunder lock horns once more after the latter got his revenge in the 2000 Guineas. This came after Kingman had made light work of him in the Greenham at Newbury but in truth Night Of Thunder looked around 60% fit. As mentioned in the Guineas blog his coat was dull, he looked a little short of work and if I didn't know better he seemed a bit lame in the prelims, with all that taken into account he has run a massive race in the Greenham. Newmarket was a different story though as he was gleaming in his coat and walking round the parade ring with great presence and his performance reflected that.
I also couldn't disagree more with people saying Kingman was at a disadvantage by the way the race was run at Newmarket. Early on James Doyle was tracking the eventual winner before moving out wide and sitting just behind Noozoh Canarias who made the running on the far side. Kingman then picked up the lead at the furlong pole with a clear run whereas Night Of Thunder had to manoeuver through horses to pick up Kingman. What part of that suggests an inconvenience to Kingman? We side Night Of Thunder and Richard Hughes to provide England with their first Royal Ascot winner.
1st - Night Of Thunder
2nd - Kingman
Ascot Stakes - Brockwell
The duo of Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have been in flying form recently and they are represented by Brockwell here who has Cheek Pieces on first time. He made his seasonal reappearance in the Chester Cup when he was drawn wide and never really overcame that draw as he was posted three or four wide the whole way. Keeping that in mind it was a good effort to stay on for fourth on ground that probably was softer than ideal and definitely not Good as officially stated. If the going at Chester was slightly off then the going at Haydock could not have been more wrong as it was nearer to bottomless than good ground. As a result of the ground they went a slow pace throughout causing Brockwell to pull very hard early on with the hood off for the first time in a while. Brockwell is taken to land this back on his preferred good ground.
1st - Brockwell
2nd - Ballinderry Boy
3rd - Suraj
4th - Waterclock
Windsor Castle Stakes - Hootenanny
Wesley Ward won the Norfolk with No Nay Never last year and he says Hootenanny is his best chance of a winner this meeting and it's easy to tell why after seeing his debut. That came over four and a half furlongs on the Keeneland polytrack but he has since been beat at Pimlico on that beautiful American 'going description' of Sloppy which is more than forgivable. On debut he showed fantastic early speed and still won going away after being challenged turning for home although he never really looked in too much trouble. If he jumps out of the gate this afternoon then it will take a very good horse to catch him on the front end and he is taken to land this for America.
1st - Hootenanny
2nd - Mind Of Madness
3rd - Roudee
NAP - Hootenanny
Nb - Night Of Thunder
Good luck everyone and as always, happy punting!
Friday 13 June 2014
Obsidian To Erupt Under Buick
Good Morning/Evening to you all, I have to apologise for the lack of a blog last weekend however I hope you enjoyed the Derby preview written earlier in the week. There was a good excuse for that though as I was dragged off to a wedding on the Friday afternoon which meant I had to watch the Oaks in a McDonalds car park, how was your day?
Australia was a fantastic winner of the Derby though with Kingston Hill chasing him all the way proving his Racing Post trophy win was no fluke and Romsdal shaped nicely as a St. Leger horse in third. But on to this weeks racing and as always we have a preview video for you featuring myself, @Calummadell and @Adamwebb121. We hope you enjoy tonight's show!
http://youtu.be/KkggC0bW_-U
Don't forget, I will be on BetRacingNation tomorrow morning from 10am till midday discussing all things racing with Royal Ascot high on the agenda. You can watch the show by tuning in to Sky 212 or watching on sportstonightlive.com.
Now onto today's selections!
2:20 Sandown - Sea Shanty
Sea Shanty made a winning reappearance when successful at Kempton and is also a course and distance winner from last May, before following that up with a second over course and distance once again. He clearly enjoys the stiffer mile at Sandown where his stamina will come to fruition and is only two pounds higher than last time out. Ryan Moore took over in the saddle that day due to an injury to Richard Hughes, but normal service is resumed today and the cheekpieces stay off. Judging from his latest runs over a mile, a strong pace looks a necessity which should be assured with the likes of Ishikawa in the field who is a regular trail blazer and won here 16 days ago. (7/1)
2:55 Sandown - Simple Magic
John Gosden throws Simple Magic in at the deep end here on her drop back to five furlongs after not cutting much ice when upped a furlong in trip. She ruined her chances on them occasions by pulling far too hard early on in the race and should appreciate a lightning fast pace and drop to the minimum trip. The draw has been kind to her but she can't miss the start like she did when disappointing at Newbury, however she did show tremendous speed to make up the lost ground that day before pulling too hard. On official ratings Simple Magic has a lot to find but she is fairly unexposed at the trip and should be a huge each way price for strong connections. (14/1)
3:25 Navan - Big Bad Lily
Lily is the name of my Grandmother so you can imagine the amount of fun we have when Big Bad Lily is on the TV, but enough of the sentimental stuff. She came good last time out after an encouraging effort at Fairyhouse when third, but she put that effort way behind her when bolting up at The Curragh in a competitive handicap. For that effort she has been raised eight pounds in the handicap but the claim of Ross Coakley negates four of them which makes life much easier today. She was very unlucky in running last time out and the excuses were making themselves, but just inside the final two furlongs she began to fly home and hit the front half a furlong out before scoring comfortably by two lengths. Big Bad Lily to make it back to back wins with the drop to five furlongs not posing any issues.
4:40 Sandown - Obsidian
Our final selection today will have entered many people's notebooks on debut at Newbury when flying home late on after being a long way off the pace turning for home. William Buick takes the ride from Frankie Dettori which can only be seen as a positive as he could have gone to York for Betimes. The form of the race hasn't been franked too much but only because we are still waiting for the others to reappear, however Moohaarib (6th) has since won at Ripon and Karaar (4th) reopposes today. One last thing is that the decision to run at a stiff track like Sandown could be an inspired one as stamina is in abundance here with the full brother to smart stablemate Fencing.
NAP - Obsidian
Nb - Big Bad Lily
Good luck today and as always, happy punting!!
Australia was a fantastic winner of the Derby though with Kingston Hill chasing him all the way proving his Racing Post trophy win was no fluke and Romsdal shaped nicely as a St. Leger horse in third. But on to this weeks racing and as always we have a preview video for you featuring myself, @Calummadell and @Adamwebb121. We hope you enjoy tonight's show!
http://youtu.be/KkggC0bW_-U
Don't forget, I will be on BetRacingNation tomorrow morning from 10am till midday discussing all things racing with Royal Ascot high on the agenda. You can watch the show by tuning in to Sky 212 or watching on sportstonightlive.com.
Now onto today's selections!
2:20 Sandown - Sea Shanty
Sea Shanty made a winning reappearance when successful at Kempton and is also a course and distance winner from last May, before following that up with a second over course and distance once again. He clearly enjoys the stiffer mile at Sandown where his stamina will come to fruition and is only two pounds higher than last time out. Ryan Moore took over in the saddle that day due to an injury to Richard Hughes, but normal service is resumed today and the cheekpieces stay off. Judging from his latest runs over a mile, a strong pace looks a necessity which should be assured with the likes of Ishikawa in the field who is a regular trail blazer and won here 16 days ago. (7/1)
2:55 Sandown - Simple Magic
John Gosden throws Simple Magic in at the deep end here on her drop back to five furlongs after not cutting much ice when upped a furlong in trip. She ruined her chances on them occasions by pulling far too hard early on in the race and should appreciate a lightning fast pace and drop to the minimum trip. The draw has been kind to her but she can't miss the start like she did when disappointing at Newbury, however she did show tremendous speed to make up the lost ground that day before pulling too hard. On official ratings Simple Magic has a lot to find but she is fairly unexposed at the trip and should be a huge each way price for strong connections. (14/1)
3:25 Navan - Big Bad Lily
Lily is the name of my Grandmother so you can imagine the amount of fun we have when Big Bad Lily is on the TV, but enough of the sentimental stuff. She came good last time out after an encouraging effort at Fairyhouse when third, but she put that effort way behind her when bolting up at The Curragh in a competitive handicap. For that effort she has been raised eight pounds in the handicap but the claim of Ross Coakley negates four of them which makes life much easier today. She was very unlucky in running last time out and the excuses were making themselves, but just inside the final two furlongs she began to fly home and hit the front half a furlong out before scoring comfortably by two lengths. Big Bad Lily to make it back to back wins with the drop to five furlongs not posing any issues.
4:40 Sandown - Obsidian
Our final selection today will have entered many people's notebooks on debut at Newbury when flying home late on after being a long way off the pace turning for home. William Buick takes the ride from Frankie Dettori which can only be seen as a positive as he could have gone to York for Betimes. The form of the race hasn't been franked too much but only because we are still waiting for the others to reappear, however Moohaarib (6th) has since won at Ripon and Karaar (4th) reopposes today. One last thing is that the decision to run at a stiff track like Sandown could be an inspired one as stamina is in abundance here with the full brother to smart stablemate Fencing.
NAP - Obsidian
Nb - Big Bad Lily
Good luck today and as always, happy punting!!
Tuesday 3 June 2014
2014 Investec Derby Preview
Australia
It seems right that we start with the long time favourite for the race and the horse who Aidan O'Brien has dubbed 'the best he has ever had' (Since that fantastic handicapper Camelot of course). Australia seemed to split the racing world right down the middle in the Guineas with one half saying he was a good thing and the other half saying he wasn't fast enough. However everyone seemed to agree with the fact that the Derby was his target for the season and he made a few friends after his encouraging third to Night Of Thunder at Newmarket. As with any member of the field, there are worries and we have to ask ourselves if the short
price tag is a true representation of his chances.
Worry number one, the ground? He has only experienced Good to Firm and Good ground in his short but successful career so far, with rain forecast all this week he could be thrown in at the deep end on Soft ground which he has never encountered.
Worry number two, the course? Epsom is about as unique as they come regarding the personality of the track with a downhill finish and steep camber running down to the centre of the course. Many horses over the years have come with big reputations but have failed to handle the undulations and punters were left burned at short odds. Obviously the same applies to everyone and Australia looks the ideal type on breeding with his Dam (Ouija Board) and Sire (Galileo) winning over course and distance, but there has to be a slight doubt in the back of your mind as with any runner in the field. (5/4)
Geoffrey Chaucer
As always Aidan O'Brien is not single handed in the Derby as he also saddles the current second favourite in Geoffrey Chaucer who lost his unbeaten tag last time out. That tag was accumulated as a two year old when winning a couple of nice races including the Beresford Stakes (Group 2) on only his second start. But last time out was the first real test for him when taking on Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran, who both conquered him that day resulting in a finish no better than third. There were a few excuses however, one being that the ride probably wasn't Joseph's finest hour and it has to be thought that he will improve as it was only his first start this season.
All in all Geoffrey Chaucer makes up into an intriguing candidate and definitely isn't out of place here, but he will need to improve significantly to land his mark on the race, despite strong market support recently. (8/1)
Kingston Hill
Roger Varian has his best chance of a Classic winner in his still young training career here with Kingston Hill who finished eighth in the 2000 Guineas, although the longer distance should suit him. It remains to be seen how much improvement the step up in trip will bring, but he really stamped his authority on the Derby scene last year when landing the Racing Post Trophy in fantastic style, however the form of that race is hugely underwhelming. One thing that is in his favour is the weather forecast as Soft ground seems to bring out the best in him as he proved at Doncaster last season. On all known form Kingston Hill looks as if he will come up a bit short against the best of these but a placed effort certainly isn't off the cards. (9/1)
True Story
Godolphin's first representative in the race now in the shape of True Story who until his Dante flop was meant to be the big danger to Australia, after winning impresively at Newmarket in a listed race first time up this season. His Dante run left something to be desired but saying that, the form has since been franked in a big way with The Grey Gatsby winning the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly. There is also a huge doubt in my mind about his suitability to the course after not appearing overly balanced straightening up at York last time after being very keen early on. However for all you dressage fans he would perform some fantastic one time changes as he switched his lead leg every stride turning for home. For win purposes it is best to look elsewhere. (12/1)
Western Hymn
We have had the first of the Godolphin runners so now we move onto the first runner from John Gosden's yard, after stablemate Romsdal was supplemented into the race earlier in the week. William Buick however opts for the ride on Western Hymn after he justified short odds in a Group 3 at Sandown last time out on
bottomless ground. The main worry regarding his chances come after two racecourse gallops, the first being at Lingfield when he hung badly left when asked to quicken and the same happened at Epsom, however he had a work partner to limit the distance of his drift down the camber. For this reason it would be a surprise to me if Western Hymn could land a serious blow in the Derby however he looks a perfect horse for the St. Leger later in the season. (14/1)
Fascinating Rock
Fascinating Rock is definitely living up to the first part of his name as he really is a fascinating contender in the race after being awarded the race from Ebanoran last time out, with Geoffrey Chaucer back in third. The main thing to take into account about Dermot Weld's representative is that all his form his on softer ground, however judging from the way he carries himself through his races, testing ground isn't a necessity. The last point on the ground front is that he is by Fastnet Rock who's progeny can handle faster going as can horses out of the Dam, Miss Polaris who has only produced himself and hurdler Quick Jack. From that aspect it will be no problem at all and stamina doesn't look to be a bother on him, however the course will play a big part on the day and he may be one to suffer, but he doesn't look to be short on class and is definitely on for the shortlist. (14/1)
Ebanoran
John Oxx last won the Derby with the fantastic Sea The Stars, obviously Ebanoran isn't a patch on him but hold a respectable chance after running well against Fascinating Rock last time out. On that occasion Ebanoran actually passed the post first but got demoted to second place after drifting right late on into the
path of the eventual winner. He showed great battling qualities that day after showing a fantastic turn of foot when making Geoffrey Chaucer look ordinary in the process. If Ebanoran can hit the front then he is a huge danger to all and he remains a very interesting runner at a big price for Saturday's race. (16/1)
Arod
Peter Chapple-Hyam threw Arod in at the deep end when finishing runner up in the Dante behind The Grey Gatsby and shaped as if the step up in trip will suit. The main worry with him is that he was still green last time out, if that happens once again at Epsom then he is in deep trouble against genuine Group One animals. He may be one who possesses a lot of talent but we may have to wait a couple of more runs to see him fulfil his full potential. (16/1)
Orchestra
Ryan Moore teamed up with Orchestra to win the same prep race at Chester that his stablemate Ruler Of The World won before victory in the Derby itself. That came over slightly further than the Derby trip but he was in need of the line from quite a way out with Romsdal closing with every stride after a troubled passage. The main worry is that you can downgrade the run quite a bit as he was gifted the rail run which is like gold dust round Chester whereas Romsdal really had to fight. For that reason Orchestra is overlooked despite Ryan Moore showing interest in the ride. (16/1)
Sudden Wonder
Now it's time for the second Godolphin runner in the shape of Sudden Wonder who needs to step up on what he has shown so far in his career, but he is more than entitled to do that. He was last seen in the Lingfield Derby Trial when I found the tactics baffling as he is a horse who has never looked a non stayer, resulting in him struggling to show a turn of foot from the back of the field. The only way Sudden Wonder could play a part in the finish of the race is if he is allowed to lead all the way and put his stamina to good use. There is a possibility that he is used as a pacemaker for True Story but even if this happens he would still have solid place claims (66/1)
Snow Sky
Snow Sky beat Sudden Wonder back into third last time out in the Lingfield Derby Trial however he did get the run of the race when settled just behind the leader. There was also a worrying time when coming down the hill preparing to turn for home as he looked slightly off balance which will show round Tattenham Corner
if that were to happen again. It would be a bit of a shock were Snow Sky to win on Saturday in my eyes despite winning a key trial and a reversal of form with Sudden Wonder is expected. (20/1)
Romsdal
John Gosden decided it was worth supplementing Romsdal into the race earlier this week after a good staying performance when just denied by Orchestra at Chester. He has a troubled passage that day and it took a horse with Class to get close to the winner so you would fancy the placings to be reversed. Saying that he probably isn't good enough to win a Derby however like his stable mate Western Hymn, a crack at the St Leger doesn't look out of the equation. Overall he doesn't have the most obvious chance but if they go a break neck speed early on it could play into his hands as he looks a very strong stayer. (25/1)
Summary
In conclusion, it would take a very good horse to beat Australia there is no doubting, but it isn't beyond the realms of possibility. The key race to focus on could well have happened between Ebanoran and Fascinating Rock with the latter preferred to come out on top. Geoffrey Chaucer was back in third that day but would have to improve significantly to hit the frame despite have a troubled passage. Neither of the Lingfield Classic trials looked vintage but I would expect the form between Snow Sky and Sudden Wonder to be reversed as I would with Orchestra and Romsdal. There is no doubting that Western Hymn is a very good horse but I can't imagine Epsom being his cup of tea and Kingston Hill has left himself with a lot to prove after a scintillating two year old season. Arod is the only one left however as mentioned before I can't see him being forward enough to win a classic despite a good run in the Dante.
1st - Fascinating Rock
2nd - Australia
3rd - Ebanoran
It seems right that we start with the long time favourite for the race and the horse who Aidan O'Brien has dubbed 'the best he has ever had' (Since that fantastic handicapper Camelot of course). Australia seemed to split the racing world right down the middle in the Guineas with one half saying he was a good thing and the other half saying he wasn't fast enough. However everyone seemed to agree with the fact that the Derby was his target for the season and he made a few friends after his encouraging third to Night Of Thunder at Newmarket. As with any member of the field, there are worries and we have to ask ourselves if the short
 |
| Australia bids to win the Derby for Aidan O'Brien for the third successive year |
Worry number one, the ground? He has only experienced Good to Firm and Good ground in his short but successful career so far, with rain forecast all this week he could be thrown in at the deep end on Soft ground which he has never encountered.
Worry number two, the course? Epsom is about as unique as they come regarding the personality of the track with a downhill finish and steep camber running down to the centre of the course. Many horses over the years have come with big reputations but have failed to handle the undulations and punters were left burned at short odds. Obviously the same applies to everyone and Australia looks the ideal type on breeding with his Dam (Ouija Board) and Sire (Galileo) winning over course and distance, but there has to be a slight doubt in the back of your mind as with any runner in the field. (5/4)
Geoffrey Chaucer
As always Aidan O'Brien is not single handed in the Derby as he also saddles the current second favourite in Geoffrey Chaucer who lost his unbeaten tag last time out. That tag was accumulated as a two year old when winning a couple of nice races including the Beresford Stakes (Group 2) on only his second start. But last time out was the first real test for him when taking on Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran, who both conquered him that day resulting in a finish no better than third. There were a few excuses however, one being that the ride probably wasn't Joseph's finest hour and it has to be thought that he will improve as it was only his first start this season.
All in all Geoffrey Chaucer makes up into an intriguing candidate and definitely isn't out of place here, but he will need to improve significantly to land his mark on the race, despite strong market support recently. (8/1)
Kingston Hill
Roger Varian has his best chance of a Classic winner in his still young training career here with Kingston Hill who finished eighth in the 2000 Guineas, although the longer distance should suit him. It remains to be seen how much improvement the step up in trip will bring, but he really stamped his authority on the Derby scene last year when landing the Racing Post Trophy in fantastic style, however the form of that race is hugely underwhelming. One thing that is in his favour is the weather forecast as Soft ground seems to bring out the best in him as he proved at Doncaster last season. On all known form Kingston Hill looks as if he will come up a bit short against the best of these but a placed effort certainly isn't off the cards. (9/1)
True Story
Godolphin's first representative in the race now in the shape of True Story who until his Dante flop was meant to be the big danger to Australia, after winning impresively at Newmarket in a listed race first time up this season. His Dante run left something to be desired but saying that, the form has since been franked in a big way with The Grey Gatsby winning the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly. There is also a huge doubt in my mind about his suitability to the course after not appearing overly balanced straightening up at York last time after being very keen early on. However for all you dressage fans he would perform some fantastic one time changes as he switched his lead leg every stride turning for home. For win purposes it is best to look elsewhere. (12/1)
Western Hymn
We have had the first of the Godolphin runners so now we move onto the first runner from John Gosden's yard, after stablemate Romsdal was supplemented into the race earlier in the week. William Buick however opts for the ride on Western Hymn after he justified short odds in a Group 3 at Sandown last time out on
 |
| Western Hymn in winning action at Sandown |
Fascinating Rock
Fascinating Rock is definitely living up to the first part of his name as he really is a fascinating contender in the race after being awarded the race from Ebanoran last time out, with Geoffrey Chaucer back in third. The main thing to take into account about Dermot Weld's representative is that all his form his on softer ground, however judging from the way he carries himself through his races, testing ground isn't a necessity. The last point on the ground front is that he is by Fastnet Rock who's progeny can handle faster going as can horses out of the Dam, Miss Polaris who has only produced himself and hurdler Quick Jack. From that aspect it will be no problem at all and stamina doesn't look to be a bother on him, however the course will play a big part on the day and he may be one to suffer, but he doesn't look to be short on class and is definitely on for the shortlist. (14/1)
Ebanoran
John Oxx last won the Derby with the fantastic Sea The Stars, obviously Ebanoran isn't a patch on him but hold a respectable chance after running well against Fascinating Rock last time out. On that occasion Ebanoran actually passed the post first but got demoted to second place after drifting right late on into the
 |
| Fascinating Rock (Noseband), Ebanoran (Green) and Geoffrey Chaucer (Behind) |
Arod
Peter Chapple-Hyam threw Arod in at the deep end when finishing runner up in the Dante behind The Grey Gatsby and shaped as if the step up in trip will suit. The main worry with him is that he was still green last time out, if that happens once again at Epsom then he is in deep trouble against genuine Group One animals. He may be one who possesses a lot of talent but we may have to wait a couple of more runs to see him fulfil his full potential. (16/1)
Orchestra
Ryan Moore teamed up with Orchestra to win the same prep race at Chester that his stablemate Ruler Of The World won before victory in the Derby itself. That came over slightly further than the Derby trip but he was in need of the line from quite a way out with Romsdal closing with every stride after a troubled passage. The main worry is that you can downgrade the run quite a bit as he was gifted the rail run which is like gold dust round Chester whereas Romsdal really had to fight. For that reason Orchestra is overlooked despite Ryan Moore showing interest in the ride. (16/1)
Sudden Wonder
Now it's time for the second Godolphin runner in the shape of Sudden Wonder who needs to step up on what he has shown so far in his career, but he is more than entitled to do that. He was last seen in the Lingfield Derby Trial when I found the tactics baffling as he is a horse who has never looked a non stayer, resulting in him struggling to show a turn of foot from the back of the field. The only way Sudden Wonder could play a part in the finish of the race is if he is allowed to lead all the way and put his stamina to good use. There is a possibility that he is used as a pacemaker for True Story but even if this happens he would still have solid place claims (66/1)
Snow Sky
Snow Sky beat Sudden Wonder back into third last time out in the Lingfield Derby Trial however he did get the run of the race when settled just behind the leader. There was also a worrying time when coming down the hill preparing to turn for home as he looked slightly off balance which will show round Tattenham Corner
 |
| Snow Sky winning the Lingfield Derby Trial |
Romsdal
John Gosden decided it was worth supplementing Romsdal into the race earlier this week after a good staying performance when just denied by Orchestra at Chester. He has a troubled passage that day and it took a horse with Class to get close to the winner so you would fancy the placings to be reversed. Saying that he probably isn't good enough to win a Derby however like his stable mate Western Hymn, a crack at the St Leger doesn't look out of the equation. Overall he doesn't have the most obvious chance but if they go a break neck speed early on it could play into his hands as he looks a very strong stayer. (25/1)
Summary
In conclusion, it would take a very good horse to beat Australia there is no doubting, but it isn't beyond the realms of possibility. The key race to focus on could well have happened between Ebanoran and Fascinating Rock with the latter preferred to come out on top. Geoffrey Chaucer was back in third that day but would have to improve significantly to hit the frame despite have a troubled passage. Neither of the Lingfield Classic trials looked vintage but I would expect the form between Snow Sky and Sudden Wonder to be reversed as I would with Orchestra and Romsdal. There is no doubting that Western Hymn is a very good horse but I can't imagine Epsom being his cup of tea and Kingston Hill has left himself with a lot to prove after a scintillating two year old season. Arod is the only one left however as mentioned before I can't see him being forward enough to win a classic despite a good run in the Dante.
1st - Fascinating Rock
2nd - Australia
3rd - Ebanoran
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