Good morning/evening everyone, the wait is over and the Cheltenham Festival of 2015 is finally here. Over the course of the next four days we will see bubbles burst and legends made, all the questions of the last year will be answered and no stone left unturned. The highlight of day one is the Champion Hurdle where hot favourite Faugheen has divided opinions over the season, he is taken on by last years winner Jezki and The New One who was considered unlucky a year ago. We are also treated to the Supreme Novices and the Arkle Novices Chase, both of which have short priced favourites with Douvan and Un De Sceaux. But enough of the stalling, lets get onto the selections and our preview of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival!
SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle - Some Plan
The 2015 Cheltenham Festival gets started off with the Supreme Novices, where Douvan is sure to go off a short priced favourite for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins which seems the order of the day. He has been ultra impressive in two starts in Ireland and is the most likely winner of the Festival opener, but there is plenty of each way value to be had in the race.
Possibly the best of those each way contenders is Some Plan for Tom George and Paddy Brennan who has won two of his three races this season. The first of those was his first hurdles start where he also lost his maiden tag in tenacious style and giving a beating to the promising A Vos Gardes. It was clear that there was a lot more to come though and he proved that when finishing second at Cheltenham on the new course behind Seedling. He was ridden very aggresively that day and only one rival could reel him in late in the day, but he showed a good attitude and jumped superbly from the front. The old course that he will face today will suit him much better and is less of a stamina test so those forceful tactics can be put into place again. His final Cheltenham prep came on Trials Day up at Musselburgh where he made light work of a useful field, but he was more than entitled to win that.
As mentioned, Douvan is the most likely winner of the opener by Some Plan represents outstanding each way value and is worth chancing at a big price. Seedling brings in the same form as Some Plan after beating him at Cheltenham however he lacks a prep run and can be opposed although a big run isn't ruled out. Another to consider is Alvisio Ville who came into the season with a tall reputation and looked to have the world at his feet after his debut, however a defeat in the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown leaves him with some questions to answer. JP McManus owns Alvisio Ville but his first colours will be carried by Jollyallan who was second out of novice company last time at Sandown. He still has a bit of growing to do and looks more like a chaser, but he was in my list of horses to follow at the start of the season and the better ground should see some improvement. L'ami Serge is the final one to mention and has done nothing wrong this season after winning the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle last time out. The worry with him is that he can take a while to pick up when asked for a finishing effort and could be outpaced at the wrong time of the race. Some Plan shouldn't be outpaced from the front however and is taken to give a bold account of himself for an owner that tasted big priced victory last year with Western Warhorse. (40/1)
1st - Douvan
2nd - Some Plan
3rd - Alvisio Ville
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy - Smashing
The second race of the day brings around the novice chasers and once again a short priced favourite representing Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. In all seriousness Un De Sceaux should be far too good for these, but at 8/11 he represents little value here. That leaves us once again with each way value and the clear pick of those for me is Smashing who has been progressive in this sphere.
This time last season Smashing was being prepared for the Coral Cup where he came a valiant fourth under the care of Willie Mullins, but connections decided to move him to Henry De Bromhead's yard so he could contest some bigger races and not be a back number. He was unlucky on chase debut as he bumped into Don Poli and Wounded Warrior who both have big chances in the RSA this week, but he has since set the record straight. That task wasn't made easy when he had to face Un De Sceaux in his second chase start where he was far from disgraced at Fairyhouse. You have to give credit to the horse as it would have been easy to sit back and pick up the pieces late on against his powerful rival, but he served it up and challenged him from an early stage of the race resulting in a twelve length beating. Finally he found a relatively easy task on his third start over fences where he duly obliged when giving the useful Upsie a 33 length beating.
Like the first race it is hard to see Un De Sceaux beaten this afternoon but Smashing represents outstanding value and could be the each way bet of the day. Others to consider Vibrato Valtat who is already a Grade One winner and has answered every critic this season. His jumping could let him down however as it became a touch sloppy at Warwick when really tested and it could be argued that he hasn't beaten that much. Saying that, on form he is likely the main threat to the favourite here and warrants respect. Clarcam has been running well all year and was running a big race in the Fred Winter when falling two out last season, he doesn't get his five year old allowance today and has a mountain to find if he wants to get near the market leader. The final mention goes to Josses Hill who has been a bitter disappointment over fences so far and has jumped poorly on all starts this season so far but the faster pace this afternoon may help him. With all other rivals taken into account it is hard to see Un De Sceaux beaten and not for the first time this season Smashing can follow him home. (25/1)
1st - Un De Sceaux
2nd - Smashing
3rd - Vibrato Valtat
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase - Ned Stark
The third race brings around some respite from Grade One action as we tackle the first handicap of the week where 24 horses go to post. Holywell was victorious in this race twelve months ago and he contests the Gold Cup later this week and has since won a Grade One. Whether anything can follow in his footsteps remains to be seen but there are plenty of progressive profiles amongst the field.
Alan King's string have been in fine form lately after a double at Exeter last week and a close second with his latest runner. He is represented here by Ned Stark who was last seen when winning the Grade Two Towton Novices Chase. That was his first try over today's trip where he seemed to excel and he looks tailor made for this race with Denis O'Regan on board. Before that he was seen in another Grade Two over two miles and five furlongs here on New Years Day where he was behind the exciting Ptit Zig. He didn't give his true running that day however and a bolder show is expected today on the old course that he hasn't yet experienced. A mark of 143 shouldn't be beyond him and it would be a bit of a surprise were he to be out of the places today.
Of the main dangers it would be folly to forget about Black Thunder who has been contesting better races that this and was only beaten eight and a half lengths by Many Clouds here on Trials Day. Sean Bowen claims a valuable five pounds which puts him one pound higher than his second place at Ascot earlier this season. Charlie Longsdon is doubly represented here but his main hopes will sit with Pendra who has promised so much in his career but not yet delivered. He has had a breathing operation since latest and only run this season and also wears cheek pieces for the first time so it really is all or nothing today. Theatre Guide was third in the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury but has only been seen four times since that run and this is a much more realistic target. We side with Ned Stark to land the opening handicap of this years Cheltenham Festival for Alan King and Denis O'Regan. (10/1)
1st - Ned Stark
2nd - Black Thunder
3rd - Theatre Guide
4th - Pendra
Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy - Faugheen
A return to Grade One action now with the Champion Hurdle which has been one of the most debated races of the season. Jezki, last year's victor returns to defend his crown but connections of The New One want their revenge after considering themselves unlucky last year. But there is a new kid on the block with last year's Neptune winner Faugheen who has been the favourite for the race since the beginning of the season.
I have been Faugheen's biggest fan since his novice season and that won't be changing today as he looks to have the world at his feet. Unbeaten in eight starts under rules he has brushed aside all in his path this season and in doing so has landed a Grade Two at Ascot and the Grade One Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Many question the strength of his form despite beating a Grade Two winner next time out in Blue Heron with ease when we last saw him on Boxing Day. Many also argue that his price is too short and he shouldn't be favourite, however on this season's form there can be no doubts about that.
The New One has been impressive this season and was an unlucky third in the race last season after being hampered early on. He made heavy weather of winning a Grade Two at Haydock last time out, but conditions were against him that day and better is expected here. Jezki looks to defend his title after being victorious last year however hasn't won this season but will improve for better ground and will have been primed for today. The reason he hasn't tasted success this season is because of the legend that is Hurricane Fly who is a dual winner of this race. He has beaten Jezki three times this season but were he to regain his crown today then it would be something that would go down in Cheltenham history, but it's hard to see that happening. Paul Townend partners him for the first time since 2011 as Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Faugheen who is also our choice this afternoon. (5/4)
OLBG Mares' Hurdle - Annie Power
One of the less competitive races of the week comes up as the girls take their chance in the Mares Hurdle with the absence of the Queen Of Cheltenham, Quevega. In the races seven year existence Quevega has won it on six occasions, but she has now been retired and there will be a new name on the trophy. It will come as no shock to you that Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh team up with the favourite once more as Annie Power looks to go one better than she did at last years Festival when second in the World Hurdle.
That was her only defeat in her twelve races so far and this is a much weaker event than she contested last year, but there are risks that come with the odds on favourite. We haven't seen her since winning a mares Grade One at Punchestown last year, but Willie Mullins is the King of getting a horse ready for Cheltenham. Everything today points towards Annie Power being far too good for this field and any result other than a victory for her will be a huge shock.
The rest look to be battling it out for second place and the most likely to do that is her stablemate Glens Melody who filled the position last year. She had been a bit disappointing when taking on the boys this season but was faultless in her final prep at Warwick and comes here as the most likely to upset the apple cart. L'unique was third in this race last season and she will have every chance to make the frame once more but has disappointed twice this season. She is usually best around this time of year but must bounce back to her best after having a break and The Pirate's Queen is another contender for the places after progressing throughout the season. (4/6)
1st - Annie Power
2nd - Glens Melody
3rd - The Pirate's Queen
Toby Balding National Hunt Chase - Very Wood
The longest race of the week and the penultimate race for the day is up next with the National Hunt Chase for amateur riders. Nina Carberry has led over the final fence on three occasions in this race and each time her mount has been caught on the run in, so she will be desperate to finally land her prize. This year she teams up with Very Wood who has had different targets with each waking morning recently as connections decided between the RSA and this race, eventually landing on the latter.
Very Wood looked to have the world at his feet when winning the Albert Bartlett last year and is the only Festival winner in the field. He started off his chasing career in good style when winning at Galway with The Job Is Right back in second who re-opposes today. Things quickly went wrong however and he was pulled up on his next two starts in Grade Two and Grade One company. Those fears seemed to be distinguished last time out when he won a Grade Two at Navan but he needs to carry that form forward. This is also a much easier race than his previous efforts against the likes of Don Poli and stamina should be no issue at all with the cheek pieces left on.
Once again Alan King has one of the main dangers in the race with Sego Success who is partnered by Sam Waley-Cohen. The yard have won this race twice since 2008 including last year's running with Midnight Prayer and will have a good chance again this term. Sego Success won a Listed Three Mile chase last time out and looked as if he would improve for further so there aren't too many doubts surrounding him. Cause Of Causes brings strong Festival form to the plate after his second in the Kim Muir last season and is partnered by Jamie Codd who is one of the best amateur's around. Nina Carberry can finally land her National Hunt Chase with Very Wood who looks to win at back to back Festivals. (7/2)
1st - Very Wood
2nd - Cause Of Causes
3rd - Sego Success
Chaps Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase - Thomas Crapper
Day One comes to a conclusion with a novice handicap chase won last year by Present View who went on to be third in the Paddy Power in November. Thomas Crapper has been campaigned with this race in mind by Robin Dickin and Charlie Poste once again takes the ride. Over the years he has run at Cheltenham nine times and has been successful on two of those occasions but he was second to Don Poli in the Martin Pipe at last year's Festival.
He comes here without a win over fences but has been thrown in against some very good novices including Vibrato Valtat and Three Kingdoms. We last saw him at Kempton when behind Third Intention and Josses Hill but in truth he was never competitive that day and as a result lowered three pounds in the handicap. That almost meant that he was too well handicapped to make it into this race but he has scraped into the field with only one below him out of the 20. That means he runs off the same mark as he did twelve months ago and one that he should be very competitive off of and finally lose is maiden tag over fences.
Keltus is one that his trainer Paul Nicholls has been talking up throughout the week but he doesn't look to be a natural over fences and will need to improve. Generous Ransom was successful here with cheek pieces on first time in January and wouldn't need to improve too much to land this prize from an eight pound higher mark. He had Irish Cavalier back in third that day but he will need to improve his jumping in first time cheek pieces to go close today. Stellar Notion won himself a lot of friends on Boxing Day with a bold front running display but disappointed behind Generous Ransom last time out, whereas Little Jon is another to consider from the front with Ryan Hatch claiming five pounds. The last race on day one can go to Thomas Crapper however and he can improve on his runner up status here last year. (15/2)
NAP - Faugheen
Nb - Thomas Crapper
Good luck today guys and as always, happy punting!
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