Im off to Sandown today, for quite a while this raceday has been my favourite of the year and personally i cant wait for the racing to start. The course has taken quite a bit of rain, so much so that Ryan Moore commented today saying its as soft as he has seen Sandown after the first. Fortunately the soft ground hasn't scared away the classier horses. Lets crack on.
1:30
A race named after one of the nicest people in racing who sadly passed away earlier this year. I talk about the trainer of Aldaniti, Josh Gifford. Alot of horses in here are from big stables and none bigger than Paul Nicholls who is represented by ULCK DU LIN who disappointed in the Fred Winter after coming here with a big reputation. He then again disappointed at Chepstow though it could just be that the first two were decent horses. Harry Derham takes off 7 today but he will need to up his game. LEXI'S BOY has already beaten CREEKSIDE at Ascot and has been in good form this year. Though every time he has encountered soft ground he has underachieved. The latter is becoming frustrating and others are preferred. TOM DU LYS comes to England for his first run after coming second in a good race in France. That was on soft ground and Jeremiah McGrath takes off 5 and is very interesting. SADLER'S RISK isnt as good as first thought after destroying the field on his first hurdle. The form behind Baby Mix would probably be good enough to win this race but carrying top weight in a race like this will be no easy task. KAPGA DE CERISY has won over the course and distance when there was considerable market support that day and more support today will be interesting. Brian Ellison's RED INCA is a horse I entered into my ATR tracker but he needs further than 2 miles here. Saying that the soft ground will make it more of a stamina slog which will be more up his street. There may be one or two better today though. SONORAN SANDS will need conditions a bit faster to produce his best form, however he has won on softer ground but his best form is on faster ground. MALANOS is a winner on very testing ground and has been consistent all year but was last time beaten out of sight by SONGSMITH. Also behind that day were KAMBIS and ONE LUCKY LADY. The latter of them two is much better off today when giving away 8 pounds and today she gets 3 pounds. She is also a soft ground winner so could take all the beating today after swerving Cheltenham and Aintree. BEYEH is a fast ground horse and CRAFTY ROBERTO has some nice form and is useful on soft ground. But ONE LUCKY LADY is the selection in the first today.
2:35 - Bet365 Celebration Chase
FRENCH OPERA has been aimed at this race after winning it last year and was beaten 6 lengths by Sprinter Sacre on his reappearance. He was probably beaten when falling last time in the Grand Annual. The going was completely different last year and was probably a much weaker race. DAN BREEN has always been one that is just short of the top boys but always runs his race. It would be no surprise to see him go well today but winning may be so much to ask. WISHFULL THINKING was much more like his old self last time but that was over 2 miles and SOMERSBY had the beating of him at Ascot over 2 miles. He also won here as a novice. He disappointed in the Ryanair last time and has no problem with soft ground so should be thereabouts. WEST WITH THE WIND has the advantage of being fresh, most of his form is on fast ground but I feel he could enjoy the softer ground. CORNAS enjoys it round here but should find this field too good. Paul Nicholls sends two to post here, WOOLCOMBE FOLLY was one of the leading fancies in the Champion Chase 2 years back but hasnt been himself recently and is hard to fancy. SANCTUAIRE is His other runner however has the potential to be a top 2 mile chaser after his first two runs where he pulverized 2 fairly week fields but hardly broke sweat. He also jumped with awesome fluency and looks a smart novice. That makes him the selection today. Be warned if you do back him he does have his problems and can sometimes boil over at the start and on occasions lose the race before its started. If on his best behaviour he should take all the beating.
3:10 - Bet365 Gold Cup
Nigel Twiston Davies sends two for this race today, VIKING BLOND who made it no further than the first in the National. But on jockey booking MAJOR MALARKEY looks the first choice and has gone well on soft ground before, his second in the midlands national puts him into the mix here but he may get a place at best. LE BEAU BAI is a mud lover and stays absolutely all day and this was utilised when he won the Welsh National. RARE BOB finds winning hard to come by and sometimes his jumping can cost him, on his day he is very useful though. ROALCO DE FARGES has been disappointing since winning a hot race at Newbury. But he has been known to enjoy soft ground and was beaten by subsequent Cheltenham winner Teaforthree. It would be no surprise to see him go well in this race. ANY CURRENCY'S best form is on better ground but stays well and could be dangerous off a low weight with Aidan Coleman on board. TULLAMORE DEW has the potential to make his price look silly as he has won on testing ground and turned in a career best effort when 2nd at Ascot behind Massini's Maguire. The one serious doubt would be whether he stays or not, if he does he could take all the beating. All of DOVER'S HILL'S best form has come on good ground and although he would be a popular winner looks a bit up against it. TIDAL BAY needs no introduction and lately has been very difficult and others are preferred. If he returns to his best he will take all the beating. DEEP PURPLE was pulled up in the National and won over course and distance in December but the ground is not in his favour today and his best hopes are for a place. WEST END ROCKER is another that ran in the National but only made it to the second fence before coming to grief. He is one that will really appreciate the softer ground and will stay the distance making him one of the main players today. OUZBECK needs faster ground than he will get today. ALDERTUNE is one that will love the ground and could be dangerous off a low weight, he is off a career high mark today and is easily opposed. WEST END ROCKER is the selection today.
3:45 - Gordon Richards Stakes
TWICE OVER is clearly the class horse of the race but was beaten on his only attempt on soft ground a while ago and could be turned over at short enough odds. COLOMBIAN makes his seasonal reappearance and has a chance after his performance behind Reliable Man at Chantilly last year on soft ground proving he enjoys the surface. Its a tough field today however and he may be playing for places at best. SRI PUTRA is usually a good bet for a place but is opposed today as all his best form is on very fast ground. HUNTER'S LIGHT has won on soft ground at Goodwood and cant be without a chance today. Early money is interesting. Preference today is for the front runner POET who has Ryan Moore on board today. The most important bit of form is that he loves Heavy ground and today if getting an easy lead he will be very hard to beat. He had a pipe opener in France and the will have blown away the cobwebs.
Nap - Poet
NB - Sanctuaire
Advise a double on them two
Next week starting monday I will be aiming to put a blog up every day so check back here for new stuff each day.
Happy Punting as always guys.
Friday 27 April 2012
Saturday 21 April 2012
Scottish Grand National Day
It was a great day last week when Neptune Collonges landed the John Smiths Grand National in his last ever appearance on a racecourse. A victory like that was so overdue for him and I can now do nothing but thank him and wish him a happy retirement. I hope a few of you got on him at fancy prices thanks to here. I'd also like to mention Sunnyhillboy who was such a gallant runner up in the race. He sustained tendon damage somewhere through the race and was operated on 24 hours later, it was a bit hit and miss whether he would survive but i'm glad to report that he will be ok and live to fight another day. But on to this week and its the Ayr Grand National, as well as some good races at Newbury.
1:40
A hands and heels race for young apprentices, this means no use of the whip unless its for safety measures. One that shouldn't be winning this is PETE who even with the whip doesnt find much off the bridle and it would be Lucy Alexander at her brilliant best to get him home in front. ENFANT DE LUNE won at Ffos Las last sunday and is bidding to follow up here under Francis Hayes, he takes the 3 pounds off which cancels out part of the 7 pound penalty. It would be a good effort to win this under top weight still. CAVITE ETA has been raised 10 pounds for his narrow win at Newcastle last time, that should account for his chances today unless he improves notably. BENE LAD is ultra consistent and the jockey booking is an interesting one, Brendan Powell takes the ride, and if anyone in horse racing doesnt know about him now they never will. He has to be feared off bottom weight here today and could be the one to beat. GRANDIOSO had just hit the front when falling at Hereford and looking like a winner and alot is thought of him, James Cowley is a talented rider and isnt easily dismissed. OUTRAGEOUS REQUEST was a fortuitous winner last time out when looking well held to have the race handed to him by the leader falling at the last. Preference today is for Sue Smiths first string which is PINEROLO who had a quiet winter then came back with a bang at Carlisle. He was only just touched off last time by Grandad's Horse when it looked for another couple of strides he would have got there. One thing that let him down that day was his jumping, you can forgive him that though as its usually his forte and he was jumping the fixed brush hurdles which may have thrown him a bit. Most probably a chaser for next year but is still very useful over a hurdle.
2:15
LIDAR is possibly the most frustrating horse in training, one time he could bolt up by 30 lengths and look a really good horse, the next time he wouldnt win a seller. If the right horse turns up and he wants to go forward then he should be winning this doing handstands. But it is a huge gamble. LANCETTO looks a bit short of top class and he will do very well to give away weight all round and win today. But he is consistent and could be one for the placepot punters. PACHA DU POLDER could hardly have been more impressive at Warwick before being stepped up in class and unseating Daryl Jacob at Newbury. He could be another like his fellow joint favourite in the fact that he may be a bit hit and miss. LUCKY LANDING beat LIDAR last time out easily and still won despite the jockey mistaking the winning line. He is no mug however and jumped fantastically that day if anything under performs he will be there to pick up the spoils. PURE FAITH brings the best form to the table in his second to Albertas Run first up this season, but that is looking more and more like a one off as he has shown nothing since that day. RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL is the local horse and has his first run over Fences today and if taking to it cant be ruled out by any stretch of the imagination, you cant back him with any confidence though. This one can go to Alan King's LIDAR as long as he is on a good day.
2:50 - Scottish Champion Hurdle
I was quietly hoping for quite a bit of rain today as i fancied DESERT CRY to go close in this but the ground remains good and that makes him hard to fancy in my mind. RAYA STAR has been very good this year but he may now just be high enough in the weights after a disappointing show in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. EDGARDO SOL has now run at Cheltenham and Aintree and has run his heart out both times. Even though he won very easily at Aintree I would question how much they have taken out of him and i'd be shocked were he good enough to win this today after his hectic campaign. LOCAL HERO bounced last time in the County hurdle and he has the potential to make his tag of 16/1 look foolish. He will need to improve though. I'm adamant that MEGASTAR has a big race in him somewhere but i would doubt that today is that day. Saying that there must be a reason Gary Moore has bought him all the way from Sussex up to Ayr as it isnt exactly a short trip. Each way claims. There has been market support for RED MERLIN this morning and is clearly fancied. But i cant justify why, he is a useful horse but has been raised 5 pounds for the shortest of wins at Newcastle in a weaker race than this. He would be my lay of the race. CHARM SCHOOL has come from Evan Williams' yard down in Wales and is clearly fancied. Adam Wedge gets on really well with him and gets the leg up today. He would be another however that i would avoid today though. PETIT ROBIN put in a cracking effort at Newbury last time coming from a lay off and as long as he doesnt bounce he should run a good enough race, I have always been skeptical as to how good he actually is and may be best watched. Barry Geraghty has opted for him over the other Nicky Henderson runner which is our selection today. TETLAMI has been a really good novice hurdler this year recording wins at Sandown and Kempton (also one win on the fibresand at Kempton) before disappointing in the Supreme. That run can be forgiven though as, as soon as he hit the hill he stopped and it could be that Cheltenham doesnt suit him. Ayr will be much more up his street and i cant believe he is 7/1. Definite each way value and is my idea of an easy winner.
3:25 - Scottish Grand National
Paul Nicholls won the English version of this race with Neptune Collonges last week and attempts to make it a double with Sir Alex Ferguson's horse HARRY THE VIKING. He proved he stayed when running on in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham to grab second behind Teaforthree. My only worry is that he doesnt do much in front in a sense that he just stops. In a race like this you cant do that without paying the price. Also very weak in the market this morning. MERIGO comes alive in this race every year and won it for me two years ago. I just dont feel that there is any value in taking 13/2 though he may well bolt up. IKORODU ROAD will relish the step up in trip as stamina is really his game. However he may be playing for minor money today. QUENTIN COLLONGES has been sparkling over fences so far and his win at Doncaster was fantastic to watch. Pricewise has chosen him today and I can see him getting a place but cant see him as the winner. ANY CURRENCY is an interesting one as he is a pound out of the handicap but Martin Keighley has been pulling his hair out after not getting into a few races he really fancied him in. He should go well today and has run 4th in the National hunt chase a few seasons ago. His day will come. I have a sneaking suspicion that PETTIFOUR could go well today. But the main thing for him is to get him jumping as over fences he can be a bit lazy. If he can translate his smart hurdles form to fences he should go very well for a yard who have recently refound a bit of form. MAC AEDA is another dangerous one down the bottom of the weights after running a good race in the Grimthorpe, I would be worried about his staying power today and others are preferred. One that will have no problem staying is PORTRAIT KING who won the Eider at Newcastle when finishing powerfully to catch Posh Bird late on. Denis O'Regan is very sweet on his chances and looks to be an improving horse, its hard to see him out of the frame. Its hard to fancy GALAXY ROCK today on his latest form but if the McCoy factor can bring him back to his best he could go very close. KNOCKARA BEAU is the one i have been saying all week but each day I have fancied him a bit less as nowadays he seems to operate better on softer ground. He may still be able to turn in a nice effort today though. AURORA'S ENCORE is one that could sneak under the radar at a nice price for Sue Smith after winning comfortably at Haydock last time out. My idea of the winner today is FRUITY O'ROONEY who is trained locally to me. Jamie Moore along with many others have said he is the one to beat and its no surprise after the season he has had. It would only be fair were he to land a big race like this after being mugged on the line at Cheltenham by Sunnyhillboy. FRUITY O'ROONEY to land the spoils today.
3:45 - Newbury
FURY goes off top weight here after running really well in a reappearance at Doncaster in the Lincoln to come third. There has been a few words flying round that he may just be better with a bit of give in the ground which is why many believe today is his day. DUBAWI SOUND makes his reappearance today and could just need this despite alot of market support and carries the burden of Pricewise. NAZREEF has won twice on the polytrack at Lingfield and Kempton in big races already this year. It could just be that he is better on the polytrack than on the turf. GLOBAL VILLAGE looked like a very good horse when winning at Leicester last time out coming with a late swoop under Kieran Fallon (who rides Fury today). But champion jockey Paul Hanagan gets the leg up today which is far from a negative. The ground will suit as well. HIGHLAND KNIGHT seems to run his race on any ground and could figure here after blowing away the cobwebs last time when throwing the race away by going sharply left handed at Kempton. Real live place claims. HEDDWYN makes his reappearance today and looks to set the record straight after a hugely disappointing run at Ascot last time out. MONT RAS ran a real nice race at Doncaster first time out this year and he will be all the better for that. The ground looks against him today and he could struggle in the mud today. CAPTAIN BERTIE was behind him that day but was very unlucky when not getting a gap and having to switch sides of the course at a crucial time of the race before flying home to grab fourth. Im taking a chance on him today in a hope that he wont mind the ground.
I hope everyone has a good day and as always Happy Punting
NAP - Tetlami
NB - Fruity O'Rooney
I'd strongly advise putting these two in an each way double
1:40
A hands and heels race for young apprentices, this means no use of the whip unless its for safety measures. One that shouldn't be winning this is PETE who even with the whip doesnt find much off the bridle and it would be Lucy Alexander at her brilliant best to get him home in front. ENFANT DE LUNE won at Ffos Las last sunday and is bidding to follow up here under Francis Hayes, he takes the 3 pounds off which cancels out part of the 7 pound penalty. It would be a good effort to win this under top weight still. CAVITE ETA has been raised 10 pounds for his narrow win at Newcastle last time, that should account for his chances today unless he improves notably. BENE LAD is ultra consistent and the jockey booking is an interesting one, Brendan Powell takes the ride, and if anyone in horse racing doesnt know about him now they never will. He has to be feared off bottom weight here today and could be the one to beat. GRANDIOSO had just hit the front when falling at Hereford and looking like a winner and alot is thought of him, James Cowley is a talented rider and isnt easily dismissed. OUTRAGEOUS REQUEST was a fortuitous winner last time out when looking well held to have the race handed to him by the leader falling at the last. Preference today is for Sue Smiths first string which is PINEROLO who had a quiet winter then came back with a bang at Carlisle. He was only just touched off last time by Grandad's Horse when it looked for another couple of strides he would have got there. One thing that let him down that day was his jumping, you can forgive him that though as its usually his forte and he was jumping the fixed brush hurdles which may have thrown him a bit. Most probably a chaser for next year but is still very useful over a hurdle.
2:15
LIDAR is possibly the most frustrating horse in training, one time he could bolt up by 30 lengths and look a really good horse, the next time he wouldnt win a seller. If the right horse turns up and he wants to go forward then he should be winning this doing handstands. But it is a huge gamble. LANCETTO looks a bit short of top class and he will do very well to give away weight all round and win today. But he is consistent and could be one for the placepot punters. PACHA DU POLDER could hardly have been more impressive at Warwick before being stepped up in class and unseating Daryl Jacob at Newbury. He could be another like his fellow joint favourite in the fact that he may be a bit hit and miss. LUCKY LANDING beat LIDAR last time out easily and still won despite the jockey mistaking the winning line. He is no mug however and jumped fantastically that day if anything under performs he will be there to pick up the spoils. PURE FAITH brings the best form to the table in his second to Albertas Run first up this season, but that is looking more and more like a one off as he has shown nothing since that day. RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL is the local horse and has his first run over Fences today and if taking to it cant be ruled out by any stretch of the imagination, you cant back him with any confidence though. This one can go to Alan King's LIDAR as long as he is on a good day.
2:50 - Scottish Champion Hurdle
I was quietly hoping for quite a bit of rain today as i fancied DESERT CRY to go close in this but the ground remains good and that makes him hard to fancy in my mind. RAYA STAR has been very good this year but he may now just be high enough in the weights after a disappointing show in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. EDGARDO SOL has now run at Cheltenham and Aintree and has run his heart out both times. Even though he won very easily at Aintree I would question how much they have taken out of him and i'd be shocked were he good enough to win this today after his hectic campaign. LOCAL HERO bounced last time in the County hurdle and he has the potential to make his tag of 16/1 look foolish. He will need to improve though. I'm adamant that MEGASTAR has a big race in him somewhere but i would doubt that today is that day. Saying that there must be a reason Gary Moore has bought him all the way from Sussex up to Ayr as it isnt exactly a short trip. Each way claims. There has been market support for RED MERLIN this morning and is clearly fancied. But i cant justify why, he is a useful horse but has been raised 5 pounds for the shortest of wins at Newcastle in a weaker race than this. He would be my lay of the race. CHARM SCHOOL has come from Evan Williams' yard down in Wales and is clearly fancied. Adam Wedge gets on really well with him and gets the leg up today. He would be another however that i would avoid today though. PETIT ROBIN put in a cracking effort at Newbury last time coming from a lay off and as long as he doesnt bounce he should run a good enough race, I have always been skeptical as to how good he actually is and may be best watched. Barry Geraghty has opted for him over the other Nicky Henderson runner which is our selection today. TETLAMI has been a really good novice hurdler this year recording wins at Sandown and Kempton (also one win on the fibresand at Kempton) before disappointing in the Supreme. That run can be forgiven though as, as soon as he hit the hill he stopped and it could be that Cheltenham doesnt suit him. Ayr will be much more up his street and i cant believe he is 7/1. Definite each way value and is my idea of an easy winner.
3:25 - Scottish Grand National
Paul Nicholls won the English version of this race with Neptune Collonges last week and attempts to make it a double with Sir Alex Ferguson's horse HARRY THE VIKING. He proved he stayed when running on in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham to grab second behind Teaforthree. My only worry is that he doesnt do much in front in a sense that he just stops. In a race like this you cant do that without paying the price. Also very weak in the market this morning. MERIGO comes alive in this race every year and won it for me two years ago. I just dont feel that there is any value in taking 13/2 though he may well bolt up. IKORODU ROAD will relish the step up in trip as stamina is really his game. However he may be playing for minor money today. QUENTIN COLLONGES has been sparkling over fences so far and his win at Doncaster was fantastic to watch. Pricewise has chosen him today and I can see him getting a place but cant see him as the winner. ANY CURRENCY is an interesting one as he is a pound out of the handicap but Martin Keighley has been pulling his hair out after not getting into a few races he really fancied him in. He should go well today and has run 4th in the National hunt chase a few seasons ago. His day will come. I have a sneaking suspicion that PETTIFOUR could go well today. But the main thing for him is to get him jumping as over fences he can be a bit lazy. If he can translate his smart hurdles form to fences he should go very well for a yard who have recently refound a bit of form. MAC AEDA is another dangerous one down the bottom of the weights after running a good race in the Grimthorpe, I would be worried about his staying power today and others are preferred. One that will have no problem staying is PORTRAIT KING who won the Eider at Newcastle when finishing powerfully to catch Posh Bird late on. Denis O'Regan is very sweet on his chances and looks to be an improving horse, its hard to see him out of the frame. Its hard to fancy GALAXY ROCK today on his latest form but if the McCoy factor can bring him back to his best he could go very close. KNOCKARA BEAU is the one i have been saying all week but each day I have fancied him a bit less as nowadays he seems to operate better on softer ground. He may still be able to turn in a nice effort today though. AURORA'S ENCORE is one that could sneak under the radar at a nice price for Sue Smith after winning comfortably at Haydock last time out. My idea of the winner today is FRUITY O'ROONEY who is trained locally to me. Jamie Moore along with many others have said he is the one to beat and its no surprise after the season he has had. It would only be fair were he to land a big race like this after being mugged on the line at Cheltenham by Sunnyhillboy. FRUITY O'ROONEY to land the spoils today.
3:45 - Newbury
FURY goes off top weight here after running really well in a reappearance at Doncaster in the Lincoln to come third. There has been a few words flying round that he may just be better with a bit of give in the ground which is why many believe today is his day. DUBAWI SOUND makes his reappearance today and could just need this despite alot of market support and carries the burden of Pricewise. NAZREEF has won twice on the polytrack at Lingfield and Kempton in big races already this year. It could just be that he is better on the polytrack than on the turf. GLOBAL VILLAGE looked like a very good horse when winning at Leicester last time out coming with a late swoop under Kieran Fallon (who rides Fury today). But champion jockey Paul Hanagan gets the leg up today which is far from a negative. The ground will suit as well. HIGHLAND KNIGHT seems to run his race on any ground and could figure here after blowing away the cobwebs last time when throwing the race away by going sharply left handed at Kempton. Real live place claims. HEDDWYN makes his reappearance today and looks to set the record straight after a hugely disappointing run at Ascot last time out. MONT RAS ran a real nice race at Doncaster first time out this year and he will be all the better for that. The ground looks against him today and he could struggle in the mud today. CAPTAIN BERTIE was behind him that day but was very unlucky when not getting a gap and having to switch sides of the course at a crucial time of the race before flying home to grab fourth. Im taking a chance on him today in a hope that he wont mind the ground.
I hope everyone has a good day and as always Happy Punting
NAP - Tetlami
NB - Fruity O'Rooney
I'd strongly advise putting these two in an each way double
Saturday 14 April 2012
Grand National Day
Today is the Aintree Grand National, the day where the majority of people in the country get involved in a horse race and lay down their 50p each way bets. As ever its a ridiculously tough thing to predict and finding the winner will pay handsomely. Each year I draw a table the night before and judge horses on 8 areas, last year my table helped me find BallaBriggs (1st) Dont Push it (3rd) State of Play (4th) and Surface to air (8th). If i had the same results today as i did last year i will be happy, but these areas are.
- have they won on the ground?
- have they won a race over 3m 2f or further
- have they won a race shorter than 3m 2f
- have they won over 2 and a half miles
- have they won over the national fences
- have they won in the last 2 years
- have they won with the weight on their back today?
- have they won with today's jockey on board
Only one horse fills the criteria today and that is last years winner BallaBriggs.
Horses that fill 7 of the areas :- Black Apalachi, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Mon Mome, Killyglen and Hello Bud
Horses that fill 6 of the areas :- Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Deep Purple, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Organisedconfusion, Vic Venturi, Neptune Equester
Horses that fill 5 of the areas :- Calgary Bay, Junior, Tatenen, According to Pete, On His Own, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, Postmaster, Giles Cross, Midnight Haze.
Horses that fill 4 of the areas :- Planet of Sound, Rare Bob, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, In Compliance, Viking Blond
None fill 3 areas
One horse fills 2 areas :- Becauseicouldntsee
With that all said and done the 4 horses for this year - BallaBriggs, Black Appalachi, Neptune Collonges and Killyglen. Chicago Grey should also run a big race.
I backed Neptune Collonges after his Sandown exploits earlier this year, and after his second at Haydock it occurred to me that he doesnt actually know how to run a bad race and is also a very classy performer. The only areas of my research he missed out on was that he hadnt won over the course (because he hasnt run over the course) and the jockey hasnt won on him (Darryl Jacob hasnt actually ridden him before)
Other bets today are...
1:45 - Aland Islands (very strong each way bet)
2:15 - If you really need a bet in this id go for Sprinter Sacre to beat Australia Day
2:50 - Zarkandar
3:25 - On Borrowed Wings (I cant stress how much of a hard race Chapoturgeon had at Cheltenham, i was watching him after the race and they were having to hold him up afterwards, cant see him winning)
4:15 - Neptune Collonges
5:05 - Dee Ee Williams
5:35 - Population
I hope everyone has a great National day and I hope my blog has helped you find a winner or two to pay for your nights out and weekends.
Happy Punting Everyone
remember to follow me on Twitter @lukeyboy1325
- have they won on the ground?
- have they won a race over 3m 2f or further
- have they won a race shorter than 3m 2f
- have they won over 2 and a half miles
- have they won over the national fences
- have they won in the last 2 years
- have they won with the weight on their back today?
- have they won with today's jockey on board
Only one horse fills the criteria today and that is last years winner BallaBriggs.
Horses that fill 7 of the areas :- Black Apalachi, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Mon Mome, Killyglen and Hello Bud
Horses that fill 6 of the areas :- Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Deep Purple, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Organisedconfusion, Vic Venturi, Neptune Equester
Horses that fill 5 of the areas :- Calgary Bay, Junior, Tatenen, According to Pete, On His Own, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, Postmaster, Giles Cross, Midnight Haze.
Horses that fill 4 of the areas :- Planet of Sound, Rare Bob, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, In Compliance, Viking Blond
None fill 3 areas
One horse fills 2 areas :- Becauseicouldntsee
With that all said and done the 4 horses for this year - BallaBriggs, Black Appalachi, Neptune Collonges and Killyglen. Chicago Grey should also run a big race.
I backed Neptune Collonges after his Sandown exploits earlier this year, and after his second at Haydock it occurred to me that he doesnt actually know how to run a bad race and is also a very classy performer. The only areas of my research he missed out on was that he hadnt won over the course (because he hasnt run over the course) and the jockey hasnt won on him (Darryl Jacob hasnt actually ridden him before)
Other bets today are...
1:45 - Aland Islands (very strong each way bet)
2:15 - If you really need a bet in this id go for Sprinter Sacre to beat Australia Day
2:50 - Zarkandar
3:25 - On Borrowed Wings (I cant stress how much of a hard race Chapoturgeon had at Cheltenham, i was watching him after the race and they were having to hold him up afterwards, cant see him winning)
4:15 - Neptune Collonges
5:05 - Dee Ee Williams
5:35 - Population
I hope everyone has a great National day and I hope my blog has helped you find a winner or two to pay for your nights out and weekends.
Happy Punting Everyone
remember to follow me on Twitter @lukeyboy1325
Friday 13 April 2012
Aintree Day 2
Not the best of days for the blog yesterday but what a great day for racing with Big Buck's surpassing Sir Ken's record when landing his 4th Liverpool hurdle and his 17th straight win. Even though the race fell apart around him you'd find it hard to think any of the others would have got near him. It was equally as nice in that race to see Crack Away Jack back to his best on his first run for Tom George. Cloudy Lane rolled back the years to land the foxhunters despite idling on the run in, did anyone see how slick he was through the air? jumped for fun around the National Fences. But we also have some really good racing today including the return of Fingal Bay who missed Cheltenham through injury. without further ado lets crack on.
2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.
2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.
3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.
3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.
2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.
4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.
5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.
remember to follow me on twitter @lukeyboy1325
and as always Happy Punting
2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.
2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.
3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.
3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.
2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.
4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.
5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.
remember to follow me on twitter @lukeyboy1325
and as always Happy Punting
Thursday 12 April 2012
Aintree day 1 continued
Continued from the last blog.
4:15 - Red Rum Handicap Chase
A race filled with horses who ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham which most of them were aimed at so wont necessarily be 100% for today's race. One of them horses who was aimed at the Grand Annual was DE BOITRON who could only manage 6th, James Reveley gets the leg up today but its hard to fancy him with any real conviction as we dont know how fit he really is. KID CASSIDY went off a fairly hot favourite for the race but in his style threw it away by pulling much too hard and never had a chance after that, he will need to relax alot more to land this. KUMBESHWAR was third in the race and travelled well turning for home and emptied fairly quickly but ran a very satisfactory race. We know he his tough enough to take frequent racing after last years Cheltenham and Aintree exertions. TANKS FOR THAT was the runner up at Cheltenham and looked like the winner for the majority of the home straight till he got swamped by a calm Paul Carberry on Bellvano. He will have to be on the top of his game today if he is going to give the weight away all round. I strongly fancied ASTRACAD in the Grand Annual but he was taken off his feet early on and for that his jumping suffered, he stayed on late in the day to come 7th and this race will be much more suited to him. EDGARDO SOL is a tough horse but he has had a hard season and every horse has a breaking point and today may be too much for him. We are siding with SILK DRUM to repeat last years victory in the race, this has been the plan all year and he will be spot on for today. He had been out of form but he bounced back with a second at Doncaster albeit in a bit of a farce of a race but this has shown he may just be a spring horse and id expect him to be tough to beat today.
4:50 - Betfred Manifesto Novices Chase
Finally a small field to analyse, but arguably one of the most talented fields of the day. Ruby Walsh is loyal to AL FEROF who was matching Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle before landing on a fence and losing all chance of winning. This is his first attempt at 2 and a half miles which should be up his street and jumping will be easier at this slower pace. Id argue that he is beatable this afternoon. Over fences i have never been the biggest fan of MENORAH but he ran an absolute blinder in the Arkle where he looked more of a chaser than ever, it could just be his fall at Doncaster has taught him to respect fences a bit more. He got outpaced turning for home in the Arkle so the step up in trip is very much justified today. Im glad ALASI is being tried in a top class novice chase as i do think that is where her future lies. She ran really well again in the mares hurdle to be caught on the line for 3rd two years running, that race shouldnt have taken too much out of her with the pace it was run, but you never know how well a horse takes a Chelenham race. CRISTAL BONUS ran a stinker at Cheltenham when never travelling with any fluency and hitting almost every fence in the Jewson, it was almost too bad to be true. It was as the day after it was discovered he has an abscess on his neck right where the saddle sits, Paul Nicholls described it 'as big an abscess you will ever see' saying it was as big as a fist. His bald patch from where is burst shows that he isnt lying. On that news he really deserves another chance and 15/2 could be a huge price. We are going to take a chance with PEPITE ROSE however who i have been following for a while, she is 4 from 4 over fences and has beaten some good horses on the bridle in that run. If she is good enough to beat her classy opponents today is yet to be seen. But all im going to say is that she looks like she could be a very VERY good horse.
5:25 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
David Pipe won this last year with Battle Group, he sends 4 down to post here with his best chance seeming to be OUR FATHER who has enough weight for a lightly raced horse and he was extremely disappointing in the Pertemps at Cheltenham, for that reason alone he has to be opposed here. VOLADOR won gamely last time at Uttoxeter but will need to improve on that, behind him in 3rd that year was SHOEGAZER who is another of David Pipe's, Paul Townend is a very interesting Jockey booking for a bit of a random race, but im not sure how much to read into it. SPIRIT RIVER was running nicely last time at Cheltenham but fell at the last when a very tired horse, he will be fitter today and carries the burden of pricewise. DEIREADH RE is a very useful horse and should be thereabouts today if running to his best Harry Derham's 7 pound claim is invaluable today. GULLINBURSTI is a very talented young horse but is starting to look a little bit vulnerable with 2 seconds in his last two runs. He should be close though. VEILED is another very very useful horse and if she puts her best foot forward she should be another one that is there at the end. Jonjo saddles PALACE JESTER in this race who has some decent form to his name but he may just be a bit short today and others look preferred. CORKAGE is an admirable horse but he saves his best for Doncaster. We are going to take a chance on the ultra consistent TRUSTAN TIMES today who very much deserves his chance here and the step up in trip will be well in his favour. Trustan Times to land it today.
As i'm finishing writing this Big Bucks has just won the Liverpool Hurdle, take note guys, you wont see one better than him in your lifetime
Happy Punting guys
Day 1 Aintree Festival
Aintree is here after what has seemed an eternity since Cheltenham, and a fairly decent card to start of the Grand National meeting as well. I was glad last night that i chose to stay up to watch the Stanley Cup playoffs especially going to bed when it was light outside after my Vancouver Canucks lost the first game 4-2. But hey 6 more games to go and id still fancy our chances of going through.
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
Saturday 7 April 2012
Saturday 7th April
Last week wasnt much of a success on the return to flat action, but we had Jimmy Styles each way at 12/1. Return to National hunt racing today although Kempton do boast a very good card on the all weather, they also have one of two 'Painted' horses in training. Its basically a Skewbald horse but in Horse Racing it is called Painted rather than that. Anyway lets dive into today's racing and hopefully find us a winner or two. Just a quick note, i was at Fontwell on Tuesday and two horses caught my eye, Tweedledrum will be winning over further and next time out Water Wagtail will win with experience under his belt.
2:25 - Haydock Park
A race that brings together a few horses in form and none more so than FRENCH TIES for the Jennie Candlish yard. He has won his last two races but this is a much harder task today, saying that he is a progressive horse and could go close. SUBURBAN BAY was 25 lengths behind Menorah earlier in the season but since then has turned in two good efforts to come second twice, but in much weaker contests than this and its hard to see him getting competitive. Alan King also saddles up PRINCE DU SEUIL who has had a short break since his last race when well put in his place by Hunt Ball. He may want conditions softer than he will get today and others are preferred. SAFARI JOURNEY rarely puts in a bad run and looked back to his best off the same mark as today when second at Ascot last week. If he takes the quick race well its hard to see him not there at the end. TIGER O'TOOLE was a fairly exciting chaser at the start of the year but hasnt really filled out into what people were hoping. He has been going the right way as of late but this is a harder race and will have to continue his progression to get close. BOCCIANI was a dark horse in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham but disappointed and was pulled up, a return to fences is in his favour today as he won here before reverting back to hurdles. He could be one that goes close today. ETXALAR had a little bit of support last night but that hasnt followed through to this morning and he may just need further. Brian Ellison's first string in this race is SOUND ACCORD who has gone from strength to strength since joining the stable, saying that he would prefer softer ground and it would take a mighty effort to land this today. ZITENKA is a horse of notable interest as he came third last time after a break of almost a year, he should strip much fitter for today and isn't one to rule out without a second look. BUFFALO BOB is more than good enough but he tends to run his best ground in more testing conditions. Preference today is for the Cheltenham hopeful CARRICKBOY. I know for a fact that Venetia Williams really fancies this one and also thinks he will go well in the Topham next week. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham to come 6th behind Hunt Ball. Support seems strong behind him in his stable and we are with him to score off top weight.
3:30 - Haydock Park
Last Sunday's Ascot winner RIGUEZ DANCER goes again for Ferdy Murphy under a 7 pound penalty, he has always had talent but sometimes doesnt always show it. Noel Fehily takes the ride today and if able to take two quick races he should go close again. TORPHICHEN disappointed in the Imperial Cup and we havent seen the same horse who ran so well behind Celestial Halo at Newbury, if fences can bring out his best again he could be bang there. QULINTON absolutely hacked up at Market Rasen last summer but since then hasnt sparkled at all but his 133 day break could have freshened him up and is worth a second look today. MR SYNTAX has been in good form but has gone up 8 pounds for his 3 and a half length win at Kelso. He could find life tough today but Richard Johnson is a notable Jockey booking. AURORA'S ENCORE is a good horse on his day and looked right back to his best last time out at Sandown and cant be easily dismissed today. The stable are also in good enough form. CRUCHAIN is most likely off a high enough mark today and is opposed. OWEN GLENDOWER ran his heart out at Cheltenham and that run has been taken into account with him being installed the 4/1 favourite today. My worry is that like so many others he wont be able to reproduce his Cheltenham run so close to it. Saying that this is a weaker race today. LORD VILLEZ won at Newcastle last time and had GANSEY behind him that day. The latter is the selection and is fancied to reverse placings today. He had been badly out of form but his last two runs have hinted at a bit of a revival in himself. The jockey booking is also very notable as Jason Maguire rarely rides for Sue Smith and there could be a hidden reason he is on board today. GANSEY to land the race.
3:55 - Carlisle
Only a small field for this one with 6 going down to post, but its not short on ability. MORGAN BE is almost a household name in the north, known for his superb staying ability in impossible conditions he rarely turns in a bad race. You would have to think he will struggle today (but he is a horse that can make people look foolish for ruling him out). For a 12 year old AMMUNITION is pretty lightly raced but has shown a liking for extreme distances. Its over a year since his last win and is opposed today. ISLA PEARL FISHER won last time out and for that is running off a career high mark of 110, if he improves then he will be competitive but he has found winning hard to come by off a lower mark. Saying that he is clearly in good form and deserves his chance. VAMIZI won over course and distance last time out but he has shown that he runs his best races in very testing conditions and isn't a strong favourite in my mind. HARRY FLASHMAN doesnt know how to run a bad race but he may just need today's run after a long layoff, he does however go well fresh. The one we are siding with today is YOU KNOW YOURSELF who's last two runs were over distances much too short for him, today will be much more up his street, personally I cant find anything to oppose him with and he will take all the beating today. A very very strong bet.
4:05 - Haydock Park
Many seem to think that Nicky Henderson holds the key to this race with the unbeaten FOURTH ESTATE. It could be a touch unfair of me to say that he has been wrapped in cotton wool as usually an unbeaten horse of Nicky Henderson's would have been tried a bit higher by now. you would have to think that something more is in store for him. He is taken on today though. EYRE APPARENT runs in the colours of Brindisi Breeze, unfortunately he isnt him but he is a consistent type, although looks out of his depth today. SYDNEY PAGET is a very highly thought of horse and won nicely last time out at Ayr, his best may be seen on softer ground though, expect him to be a big danger however. PERSIAN SNOW was behind the progressive Lava Lamp last time out and has been raised 5 pounds for that performance. He hails from a good stable but others are preferred. GRANDADS HORSE ran a blinder in the Martin Pipe and is a very admirable sort, only beaten 18 lengths by Fingal Bay at Cheltenahm. A reproduction of his last two runs will see him close off top weight. Noel Fehily is a positive jockey booking. We are siding with PINEROLO who i put up as a horse to follow a while back, he has won for us at Carlisle since and had quite a bit in hand last time. Last night i got him at 16.0 on Betfair and is now available at only half the price. He is a huge horse and a fantastic jumper who i can see going in again. Serious horse for the future.
5:20 - Newton Abbot
Unfortunately we have a non runner which takes each way betting down to 3 places which is annoying but we shall soldier on through it. Tony McCoy has gone to Newton Abbot for 2 rides at either end of the card today. Here he has CARDINAL ROSE who disappointed majorly last time at Southwell, it's safe to say he is capable of much better but he does have to show that today and can be opposed. ARCTIC WATCH'S only win has come at this course but does run very consistently rarely turning in a bad effort, he will really enjoy the ground today as a bonus. CAUNAY has the very talented Tom Bellamy on board today and his 7 pounds off will help no end and he is another that cant be easily dismissed this afternoon, especially on this ground which he so loves. He has found winning hard to come by lately though off his higher rating. THE DISENGAGER is a nice horse and is still very lightly raced, His jumping can sometimes let him down though and is one to watch. Tom Flint rides RIGHT OPTION for his father and the faster ground bought him back to his best after being pulled up twice last time. He has only recorded two wins in the National Hunt sphere though and hasnt won since winning a very good race at Cheltenham in 2009. BLACK PHANTOM was fairly highly tried as a younger horse but realistically this is his level and he could go well today. Preference is for a horse i consider a winner in waiting called BE MY LIGHT. The last two times he has been staying on very well and there were excuses last time in the fact that he got blindsided by Minella Mistake at a hurdle, from then on he was tenderly ridden by today's rider and was flying home at the death to almost grab 3rd on the line. Diarmuid O'Regan's 10 pound claim is a huge bonus in a race like this and he should go close today.
NAP - You Know Yourself
NB - Pinerolo
Id also like to say a big well done to Maurice Linehan for winning ride of the year aboard Tarvini at Huntingdon in the Lesters.
2:25 - Haydock Park
A race that brings together a few horses in form and none more so than FRENCH TIES for the Jennie Candlish yard. He has won his last two races but this is a much harder task today, saying that he is a progressive horse and could go close. SUBURBAN BAY was 25 lengths behind Menorah earlier in the season but since then has turned in two good efforts to come second twice, but in much weaker contests than this and its hard to see him getting competitive. Alan King also saddles up PRINCE DU SEUIL who has had a short break since his last race when well put in his place by Hunt Ball. He may want conditions softer than he will get today and others are preferred. SAFARI JOURNEY rarely puts in a bad run and looked back to his best off the same mark as today when second at Ascot last week. If he takes the quick race well its hard to see him not there at the end. TIGER O'TOOLE was a fairly exciting chaser at the start of the year but hasnt really filled out into what people were hoping. He has been going the right way as of late but this is a harder race and will have to continue his progression to get close. BOCCIANI was a dark horse in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham but disappointed and was pulled up, a return to fences is in his favour today as he won here before reverting back to hurdles. He could be one that goes close today. ETXALAR had a little bit of support last night but that hasnt followed through to this morning and he may just need further. Brian Ellison's first string in this race is SOUND ACCORD who has gone from strength to strength since joining the stable, saying that he would prefer softer ground and it would take a mighty effort to land this today. ZITENKA is a horse of notable interest as he came third last time after a break of almost a year, he should strip much fitter for today and isn't one to rule out without a second look. BUFFALO BOB is more than good enough but he tends to run his best ground in more testing conditions. Preference today is for the Cheltenham hopeful CARRICKBOY. I know for a fact that Venetia Williams really fancies this one and also thinks he will go well in the Topham next week. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham to come 6th behind Hunt Ball. Support seems strong behind him in his stable and we are with him to score off top weight.
3:30 - Haydock Park
Last Sunday's Ascot winner RIGUEZ DANCER goes again for Ferdy Murphy under a 7 pound penalty, he has always had talent but sometimes doesnt always show it. Noel Fehily takes the ride today and if able to take two quick races he should go close again. TORPHICHEN disappointed in the Imperial Cup and we havent seen the same horse who ran so well behind Celestial Halo at Newbury, if fences can bring out his best again he could be bang there. QULINTON absolutely hacked up at Market Rasen last summer but since then hasnt sparkled at all but his 133 day break could have freshened him up and is worth a second look today. MR SYNTAX has been in good form but has gone up 8 pounds for his 3 and a half length win at Kelso. He could find life tough today but Richard Johnson is a notable Jockey booking. AURORA'S ENCORE is a good horse on his day and looked right back to his best last time out at Sandown and cant be easily dismissed today. The stable are also in good enough form. CRUCHAIN is most likely off a high enough mark today and is opposed. OWEN GLENDOWER ran his heart out at Cheltenham and that run has been taken into account with him being installed the 4/1 favourite today. My worry is that like so many others he wont be able to reproduce his Cheltenham run so close to it. Saying that this is a weaker race today. LORD VILLEZ won at Newcastle last time and had GANSEY behind him that day. The latter is the selection and is fancied to reverse placings today. He had been badly out of form but his last two runs have hinted at a bit of a revival in himself. The jockey booking is also very notable as Jason Maguire rarely rides for Sue Smith and there could be a hidden reason he is on board today. GANSEY to land the race.
3:55 - Carlisle
Only a small field for this one with 6 going down to post, but its not short on ability. MORGAN BE is almost a household name in the north, known for his superb staying ability in impossible conditions he rarely turns in a bad race. You would have to think he will struggle today (but he is a horse that can make people look foolish for ruling him out). For a 12 year old AMMUNITION is pretty lightly raced but has shown a liking for extreme distances. Its over a year since his last win and is opposed today. ISLA PEARL FISHER won last time out and for that is running off a career high mark of 110, if he improves then he will be competitive but he has found winning hard to come by off a lower mark. Saying that he is clearly in good form and deserves his chance. VAMIZI won over course and distance last time out but he has shown that he runs his best races in very testing conditions and isn't a strong favourite in my mind. HARRY FLASHMAN doesnt know how to run a bad race but he may just need today's run after a long layoff, he does however go well fresh. The one we are siding with today is YOU KNOW YOURSELF who's last two runs were over distances much too short for him, today will be much more up his street, personally I cant find anything to oppose him with and he will take all the beating today. A very very strong bet.
4:05 - Haydock Park
Many seem to think that Nicky Henderson holds the key to this race with the unbeaten FOURTH ESTATE. It could be a touch unfair of me to say that he has been wrapped in cotton wool as usually an unbeaten horse of Nicky Henderson's would have been tried a bit higher by now. you would have to think that something more is in store for him. He is taken on today though. EYRE APPARENT runs in the colours of Brindisi Breeze, unfortunately he isnt him but he is a consistent type, although looks out of his depth today. SYDNEY PAGET is a very highly thought of horse and won nicely last time out at Ayr, his best may be seen on softer ground though, expect him to be a big danger however. PERSIAN SNOW was behind the progressive Lava Lamp last time out and has been raised 5 pounds for that performance. He hails from a good stable but others are preferred. GRANDADS HORSE ran a blinder in the Martin Pipe and is a very admirable sort, only beaten 18 lengths by Fingal Bay at Cheltenahm. A reproduction of his last two runs will see him close off top weight. Noel Fehily is a positive jockey booking. We are siding with PINEROLO who i put up as a horse to follow a while back, he has won for us at Carlisle since and had quite a bit in hand last time. Last night i got him at 16.0 on Betfair and is now available at only half the price. He is a huge horse and a fantastic jumper who i can see going in again. Serious horse for the future.
5:20 - Newton Abbot
Unfortunately we have a non runner which takes each way betting down to 3 places which is annoying but we shall soldier on through it. Tony McCoy has gone to Newton Abbot for 2 rides at either end of the card today. Here he has CARDINAL ROSE who disappointed majorly last time at Southwell, it's safe to say he is capable of much better but he does have to show that today and can be opposed. ARCTIC WATCH'S only win has come at this course but does run very consistently rarely turning in a bad effort, he will really enjoy the ground today as a bonus. CAUNAY has the very talented Tom Bellamy on board today and his 7 pounds off will help no end and he is another that cant be easily dismissed this afternoon, especially on this ground which he so loves. He has found winning hard to come by lately though off his higher rating. THE DISENGAGER is a nice horse and is still very lightly raced, His jumping can sometimes let him down though and is one to watch. Tom Flint rides RIGHT OPTION for his father and the faster ground bought him back to his best after being pulled up twice last time. He has only recorded two wins in the National Hunt sphere though and hasnt won since winning a very good race at Cheltenham in 2009. BLACK PHANTOM was fairly highly tried as a younger horse but realistically this is his level and he could go well today. Preference is for a horse i consider a winner in waiting called BE MY LIGHT. The last two times he has been staying on very well and there were excuses last time in the fact that he got blindsided by Minella Mistake at a hurdle, from then on he was tenderly ridden by today's rider and was flying home at the death to almost grab 3rd on the line. Diarmuid O'Regan's 10 pound claim is a huge bonus in a race like this and he should go close today.
NAP - You Know Yourself
NB - Pinerolo
Id also like to say a big well done to Maurice Linehan for winning ride of the year aboard Tarvini at Huntingdon in the Lesters.
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