Good Morning everybody, I trust you all slept well and werent too excited by the prospect of jumps racing returning. We have already lost the meeting at Doncaster, which is particularly annoying to me as Grandouet misses out on his prep for March. I suspect he will now go to the Morebattle hurdle up at Kelso won last year by Simonsig for the same stable.
But there are more trials at Prestbury Park today with the Cleeve Hurdle, featuring Oscar Whisky returning to three miles. He takes on long walk winner Reve De Sivola and Paul Nicholls' Kauto Stone. More importantly the 2010 Gold Cup winner returns in the Argento, of course I speak of Imperial Commander. If he were to get his head in front today there will be the biggest cheer at Cheltenham until March.
One last thing is an apology, there was no blog last week, this was a mix of two reasons, firstly that the racing was awful. Only the all weather in action due to the snow and frost, but the main reason was because I was camping. I l know, who goes camping in the winter time? Canadians apparently, but despite a little burn mark on my hand from the campfire im back in one piece.
But if it is ok with you guys, we will leave my drunken exploits behind us and focus on some racing. Here we go!
12:10 Cheltenham - Irish Saint
The first race can go to the Champion trainer who saddles the very impressive Kempton winner Irish Saint. He could hardly have been more taking that day, dealing out an 18 length victory to Mcvicar. Nicholls reported him to not be fully wound up for that race, if he has improved for the run we could be in for a real treat. He faces worthy opponents however in Nicky Henderson's 'Rolling Star' and Jonjo's 'Last Shadow'. We will take Irish Saint to make it 2 from 2 in England for our opener on trials day though. (6/4)
12:40 Cheltenham - Vino Griego
Gary Moore's runners always have to be respected here, and Vino Griego was fourth at the festival two years ago behind Divers. He has a tendency to be a bit hit and miss, but if you catch him on a going day then he can make his price look silly. today could well be one of those ocassions, at Ascot his race ended before it got going when he departed at the 2nd fence. But since he has run a great race at Plumpton behind Salden Licht and ahead of Vulcanite. That run throws him in with a real chance here and is a more than interesting each way proposition. (16/1)
1:15 Cheltenham - Katenko
Katenko is actually my Dark horse for the Gold Cup come March, he is around 50/1 for that race. Today is an easier task, he entered my reckonings when winning very well at Sandown. He looked that day as if he has bags of room for improvement, putting Johns Spirit and the reopposing Fruity O'Rooney well in their place. This is only his 3rd chase and fourth start in England, his only other chase he was runner up to Wyck Hill (another Gold Cup entrant). But off a mark of 147 this exciting young strapping chaser simply cant be ignored. Landing him the burden of being today's NAP. (5/1)
1:50 Cheltenham - Somersby
Somersby has his first run for Mick Channon today and while he is unlikely to ruffle the feathers of Sprinter Sacre, he is a tasty each way price. He is also 7/4 in the betting without Sprinter Sacre behind only Sanctuaire whom he aims to reverse Sandown form. I will quietly be cheering Sanctuaire on today but will wait for Cheltenham and Better ground to back him. Somersby won this race last year when at its usual track of Ascot, obviously that was abandoned, hence our predicament today. His stamina may just help him out in todays ground and id be surprised were he to be out of the placings. (12/1)
2:25 Cheltenham - Imperial Commander
News is beginning to come that Tidal Bay is a non runner today, if there is any truth to that then the race loses some of its gloss. But there are questions over most of the other runners today, so we take a chance on Imperial Commander. If he is fit enough and retains his ability then he should take some beating on his belated return from injury. Paddy Brennan retains the ride of course which is nothing but a positive, he knows the horse inside out and you will do well to find a better jockey riding. A tentative vote goes towards the 2010 Gold Cup hero today. (6/1)
3:00 Cheltenham - Coneygree
Mark Bradstock's gelding is one of the Cheltenham hot pots right now after his 2 wins here, one of which all but over course and distance. He is being aimed for the 3 mile Albert Bartlett however, today is only two and a half miles. He probably lacks a few gears but he will never stop running and today that could be just what the doctor ordered. Also The New One in my mind is a bit overrated, no disrespect meant to him but today will be his biggest test to date and is well worth opposing. Coneygree the selection though. (5/2)
3:35 Cheltenham - Kauto Stone
A very intriguing runner here for the Champion trainer in that Kauto Stone steps down to hurdles today. This could prove to be an inspired move as Kauto Stone has been prone to make a few mistakes. There is a Paul Nicholls horse that went from Chasing to Hurdling a few years back, but the name escapes me.... Nope cant remember, Big something? Of course I jest. But Kauto stone could prove a nice priced winner getting 8 pounds from the top two here, he is almost an each way price. Could well just have slipped under the radar here. (15/2)
4:10 Cheltenham - Mr Watson
If you are anywhere near the course today and you hear something that sounds like an earthquake, dont be alarmed, it will be Tony McCoy's Stomach. He has fasted himself down to 10-3 for this ride here today, which I am informed is his lowest weight for 12 months. The champ rarely gets himself down to a weight this low, but when he does they rarely disappoint. Mr Watson was bought for £215,000 at the Cheltenham sales and settled much better in the hood at Plumpton last time when winning. Looks a real solid bet. (5/1)
NAP - Katenko
NB - Mr Watson
Lets hope for a good day and line our pockets on the build up to the Festival in March. Personally I have booked my flights back for the 5th March, feel free to greet me at the airport.
Happy Punting guys!
Showing posts with label festival. Show all posts
Showing posts with label festival. Show all posts
Friday, 25 January 2013
Monday, 21 January 2013
Champion Hurdle 2013 Preview
Stan James Champion Hurdle - Grandouet
The Champion Hurdle this year has some odd factors to it, yet promises to be the best race of the festival potentially. The first odd factor is Cotton Mill's gamble after being made Pricewise today, he is now best price 25/1. Personally 100/1 wouldnt interest me but opinions are there to be made wrong.
The other main factor is that Darlan is 7/2. Im not disrespecting his chance but after his Christmas hurdle romp he shortened significantly. Obviously to the eye he was very impressive that day, however re-watch the race and they went an absolute crawl throughout, ending in a sprint finish. Now take a look at the horses he beat, Cinders and Ashes, Raya Star, Dodging Bullets, countrywide flame and the returning Punjabi. Now, all of them will get further without a doubt, maybe with the exception of Punjabi who is back from injury. But on that day it was just a case of, who is the fastest horse? Without a doubt that is Darlan. Rock on Ruby probably isnt a 2 miler round Kempton, he was second in that race last season. He then won the Champion, mainly because 2 miles round Cheltenham takes more stamina than speed, especially late on. That brings the others well into the mix.
Hurricane Fly is also 7/2 after his 2 wins in Ireland, one of which he was left all alone at the last when the late Go Native fell when challenging. Last time out however was the Hurricane Fly we know and love, yet again though, how many Champion Hurdle class horses did he beat? The answer is a resounding, none. Not taking anything from the style of his win, he will probably need more come Cheltenham time, and could easily take the race like in 2011.
The strongest form of the race comes from the International hurdle, Zarkandar was getting 4 pounds from Rock on Ruby and Grandouet. The former being the returning reigning Champion Hurdler, and the latter making his long awaited reappearance. Even though the result went Zarkandars way, the other two looked to need it badly. Grandouet came out of the race well after a fantastic effort going down by two lengths. Obviously in the Champion they will both be 4 pounds better off and Nicky Henderson's inmate should reverse the placings.
Grandouet is the Ante Post Selection, i'm praying he stays fit this year after last year picking up an annoying niggle just before Cheltenham. That meant he couldnt take part in the race, it could well be a blessing in disguise however meaning he is fresh and had another year to mature. That last point could be vital as he was a very slow maturing horse that only really came into himself last year. (7/1)
The Champion Hurdle this year has some odd factors to it, yet promises to be the best race of the festival potentially. The first odd factor is Cotton Mill's gamble after being made Pricewise today, he is now best price 25/1. Personally 100/1 wouldnt interest me but opinions are there to be made wrong.
The other main factor is that Darlan is 7/2. Im not disrespecting his chance but after his Christmas hurdle romp he shortened significantly. Obviously to the eye he was very impressive that day, however re-watch the race and they went an absolute crawl throughout, ending in a sprint finish. Now take a look at the horses he beat, Cinders and Ashes, Raya Star, Dodging Bullets, countrywide flame and the returning Punjabi. Now, all of them will get further without a doubt, maybe with the exception of Punjabi who is back from injury. But on that day it was just a case of, who is the fastest horse? Without a doubt that is Darlan. Rock on Ruby probably isnt a 2 miler round Kempton, he was second in that race last season. He then won the Champion, mainly because 2 miles round Cheltenham takes more stamina than speed, especially late on. That brings the others well into the mix.
Hurricane Fly is also 7/2 after his 2 wins in Ireland, one of which he was left all alone at the last when the late Go Native fell when challenging. Last time out however was the Hurricane Fly we know and love, yet again though, how many Champion Hurdle class horses did he beat? The answer is a resounding, none. Not taking anything from the style of his win, he will probably need more come Cheltenham time, and could easily take the race like in 2011.
The strongest form of the race comes from the International hurdle, Zarkandar was getting 4 pounds from Rock on Ruby and Grandouet. The former being the returning reigning Champion Hurdler, and the latter making his long awaited reappearance. Even though the result went Zarkandars way, the other two looked to need it badly. Grandouet came out of the race well after a fantastic effort going down by two lengths. Obviously in the Champion they will both be 4 pounds better off and Nicky Henderson's inmate should reverse the placings.
Grandouet is the Ante Post Selection, i'm praying he stays fit this year after last year picking up an annoying niggle just before Cheltenham. That meant he couldnt take part in the race, it could well be a blessing in disguise however meaning he is fresh and had another year to mature. That last point could be vital as he was a very slow maturing horse that only really came into himself last year. (7/1)
Friday, 13 April 2012
Aintree Day 2
Not the best of days for the blog yesterday but what a great day for racing with Big Buck's surpassing Sir Ken's record when landing his 4th Liverpool hurdle and his 17th straight win. Even though the race fell apart around him you'd find it hard to think any of the others would have got near him. It was equally as nice in that race to see Crack Away Jack back to his best on his first run for Tom George. Cloudy Lane rolled back the years to land the foxhunters despite idling on the run in, did anyone see how slick he was through the air? jumped for fun around the National Fences. But we also have some really good racing today including the return of Fingal Bay who missed Cheltenham through injury. without further ado lets crack on.
2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.
2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.
3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.
3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.
2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.
4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.
5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.
remember to follow me on twitter @lukeyboy1325
and as always Happy Punting
2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.
2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.
3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.
3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.
2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.
4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.
5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.
remember to follow me on twitter @lukeyboy1325
and as always Happy Punting
Wednesday, 21 March 2012
My Attheraces Tracker Horses
I hope everyone had a fantastic time during Cheltenham Festival week, everything seems so slow the week after the Festival (almost like between Christmas and New Years). But hey we shall just have to look forward to Aintree now. Today i have decided to release the horses i have in my ATR tracker. For those of you who dont know what that is, you can have up to 50 horses in your tracker that you want to be alerted about its next run. The night before the race they send you an email with details of the horse and race so you will never miss a winner again. Here is the link, just so you know im not being asked to promote this i am doing so of my own accord as its just such a fantastic idea!
http://www.attheraces.com/tracker/myatrtracker.aspx
Ashdown Lad - This horse entered my tracker when he was 2nd to a 1/7 favourite at Lingfield by only half a length under hands and heels. That was only his second run and has since gone on to finish third at Kempton, but he didnt get the run of the race that day and i'd imagine that Lingfield will suit him much better. Definitely a winner in waiting.
Bally Gunner - I only put this one in my tracker yesterday when running at Exeter in a 2m1f Handicap hurdle. This was his first time in Handicap company but was staying on like a train and was screaming out for 2 and a half miles. The winner KATCHMORE also looks a very nice prospect from the race. But Bally Gunner will be winning before long.
Be My Light - If you read my blog a couple of weeks back you would have seen this one as the NAP of the day at a glamorous price, that day he was bang there before getting outpaced turning for home and looking well held back in the field. Up until then it looked a very ordinary run, However between the second last and last hurdle the penny seemed to drop and he stayed on in very taking fashion to land 5th place. A step up to 3 miles will be very welcome for him, should also be a very decent price.
Burke's Rock - This one has already won since being in my tracker on a Saturday meeting at Lingfield. But she entered the books for his debut run under Hayley Turner. She got absolutely murdered on the turn for home and lost all chance of a win, but Hayley rode him hands and heels to the line and she picked up to get third again. Even after winning her maiden there still looks more to come from her and she is definitely one to keep on the right side of.
Captain Sunshine - He has also won since being in the tracker, albeit at 4/9 in a weak race. But he entered my tracker due to his defeat by Balder Succes at Ascot when he was staying on very nicely over two miles, he won last time at Kempton over 2 and a half but will be contesting much hotter contests than that.
Red Inca - He was beaten soundly at Fakenham last friday but looks as if he would relish a step up in trip. Entered the books when staying on takingly to land 4th at Musselburgh 3 runs ago. He then won at Ludlow at 9/2 nicely, but as i say he was soundly beaten last time out.
Workbench - A Paul Nicholls horse that has only ran twice, the first time out was in a bumper over only an extended 1m4f. After that Ruby tweeted saying that he will be winning over 2 miles. He was stepped up to 2 miles at Chepstow last time out but seemed to get stuck in the mud under Harry Derham and was beaten comprehensively. Definitely one to consider on better ground.
I hope i can find you some winners through them lot, also a heads up, i have a very strong fancy tomorrow at carlisle so come back for a read.
Happy Punting guys
http://www.attheraces.com/tracker/myatrtracker.aspx
Ashdown Lad - This horse entered my tracker when he was 2nd to a 1/7 favourite at Lingfield by only half a length under hands and heels. That was only his second run and has since gone on to finish third at Kempton, but he didnt get the run of the race that day and i'd imagine that Lingfield will suit him much better. Definitely a winner in waiting.
Bally Gunner - I only put this one in my tracker yesterday when running at Exeter in a 2m1f Handicap hurdle. This was his first time in Handicap company but was staying on like a train and was screaming out for 2 and a half miles. The winner KATCHMORE also looks a very nice prospect from the race. But Bally Gunner will be winning before long.
Be My Light - If you read my blog a couple of weeks back you would have seen this one as the NAP of the day at a glamorous price, that day he was bang there before getting outpaced turning for home and looking well held back in the field. Up until then it looked a very ordinary run, However between the second last and last hurdle the penny seemed to drop and he stayed on in very taking fashion to land 5th place. A step up to 3 miles will be very welcome for him, should also be a very decent price.
Burke's Rock - This one has already won since being in my tracker on a Saturday meeting at Lingfield. But she entered the books for his debut run under Hayley Turner. She got absolutely murdered on the turn for home and lost all chance of a win, but Hayley rode him hands and heels to the line and she picked up to get third again. Even after winning her maiden there still looks more to come from her and she is definitely one to keep on the right side of.
Captain Sunshine - He has also won since being in the tracker, albeit at 4/9 in a weak race. But he entered my tracker due to his defeat by Balder Succes at Ascot when he was staying on very nicely over two miles, he won last time at Kempton over 2 and a half but will be contesting much hotter contests than that.
Red Inca - He was beaten soundly at Fakenham last friday but looks as if he would relish a step up in trip. Entered the books when staying on takingly to land 4th at Musselburgh 3 runs ago. He then won at Ludlow at 9/2 nicely, but as i say he was soundly beaten last time out.
Workbench - A Paul Nicholls horse that has only ran twice, the first time out was in a bumper over only an extended 1m4f. After that Ruby tweeted saying that he will be winning over 2 miles. He was stepped up to 2 miles at Chepstow last time out but seemed to get stuck in the mud under Harry Derham and was beaten comprehensively. Definitely one to consider on better ground.
I hope i can find you some winners through them lot, also a heads up, i have a very strong fancy tomorrow at carlisle so come back for a read.
Happy Punting guys
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Cheltenham Festival Day 4
This blog is up earlier as im off to Cheltenham tomorrow but hopefully we can find some winners on the last day of the 2012 Festival. Id just like to say, how good was Big Bucks!!! that horse is awesome! now lets move on
1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
Won last year by Zarkandar, Paul Nicholls sends two to post today in PEARL SWAN and DODGING BULLETS. The latter has had just the one run in England but was a very smart performer on the flat in Ireland, he was thrown in at the deep end first time out over hurdles and ran a very credible race when only 1 and a half lengths behind GRUMETI. He was awarded the race in the stewards room when he faced the main Nicholls horse and Ruby Walsh's mount meets him 3 pounds better off which should account for the main Alan King runner. Robert Thornton had a tough choice between him and BALDER SUCCES who has been very impressive in his two starts at Ascot but is yet to tackle a field of this size and may not be very street wise. HIS EXCELLENCY is a huge price for a Davy Russell ridden horse however he was beaten by HISAABAAT out of sight. That race also accounts for SHADOW CATCHER, COUNTRYWIDE FLAME, ASAID and UT DE SIVOLA. If that form is true today then Dermot Weld's gelding has account for a quarter of the field. He was also a useful horse on the flat which is always a positive attribute in the Triumph Hurdle. SADLERS RISK was disappointing behind BABY MIX after having such alot of potential to fill after his hurdles debut. Tom George's gelding was impressive last time and on his hurdles debut at this course. DARROUN has beaten HISAABAAT but on softer ground and the latter will be more suited to todays conditions. Which is why he is today's selection
1st - Hisaabaat
2nd - Pearl Swan
3rd - Darroun
2:05 - Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle
TED SPREAD and MASTER OF ARTS were both strongly fancied in last week's Imperial Cup but both disappointed hugely. The latter has the excuse of a big layoff so should be fitter this time, but the former just didnt seem good enough. LOCAL HERO came back off a layoff with a defeat by Simonsig by 3 and three quarter lengths, he has the bounce factor to overcome today though. UBI ACE is having his first run for Jonjo O'neill today but Tony Mccoy is claimed by JP on ALDERWOOD for Tom Mullins, he has been struggling as of late and never got in to his last race at Leopardstown. HELL'S BAY reverts back to hurdles after not taking back to fences after his break from racing. RAYA STAR has been fantastic this year and again cant be too far away this time. SNAP TIE is a class horse but has to come off of a 882 day lay off and may just struggle. PLAN A was fourth in this last year and forgive his last run he should be considered off a 6 pounds higher mark than last year. IFYOULETMEFINISH is a horse i like alot and goes handicapping for the first time today, he has form with alot of the English Triumph hurdle field and could be well handicapped. OLOFI also has been running well this year and was unlucky when looking like the winner at Newbury, he is expected to again go very close. DESERT CRY will need the ground softer but the stable is in form. CITIZENSHIP is up 15 pounds for a win last time out and that could account for his claims but is still expected to go well. REDERA is a nice horse and i know for a fact that the Tony Martin stable fancy this horse strongly, which is why he is the selection for today's race
1st - Redera
2nd - Ifyouletmefinish
3rd - Olofi
4th - Ubi Ace
2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
SEA OF THUNDER was a very unlucky loser here in December when sprinting clear and coming down at the last. He has to be fancied today even with a few strong opponents. LOVCEN is highly thought of by the King yard and has real live each way claims at a nice price. MOUNT BENBULBEN is fancied by Gordon Elliot and was runner up to BOSTON BOB on ground that the latter absolutely hated. Willie Mullins has sent him here instead of the Neptune earlier in the week and should take all the beating here. BRINDISI BREEZE would be a nice winner but he does go better on softer ground and Lucinda Russell will have been doing a rain dance this week. ROCKY CREEK is thought fairly highly of by Paul Nicholls and comes from a pointing background where Tom Malone bought him, he is very keen on him making a very nice horse, others are preferred today however. SIVOLA DE SIVOLA always seems to run his race and cant be dismissed at a juicy price however we will go with the strong favourite BOSTON BOB who looks fairly unbeatable at this level
1st - Boston Bob
2nd - Rocky Creek
3rd - Mount Benbulben
3:20 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
This is the big one, the one everyone has been waiting for. LONG RUN vs KAUTO STAR. You can guarantee that there wont be a dry eye in the house if the veteran wins this race. But he would be an unlikely winner at this stage of his career as with his new tactics in hand he shouldnt stay the extended 3 mile trip. Last years winner will relish in the longer trip. It would seem that the value to be had here is through each way betting. The race looks to be set up by MIDNIGHT CHASE who loves this course but was out of his depth last year and looks the same this year. QUEL ESPRIT won the Irish Hennessy but the Irish 3 mile chasers look distinctly average at the moment as SYNCHRONISED beat them comfortably and in my opinion he is just a very good handicapper. BURTON PORT ran a cracker on his return last time behind the favourite but does have the bounce factor to overcome, if fully fit he should be right there and give the main two most to think about. WEIRD AL is the each way selection who is apparently catching pigeons at home and the yard are in very good form lately. LONG RUN should make it back to back Gold Cups today though.
1st - Long Run
2nd - Weird Al
3rd - Kauto Star
4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
BARBERS SHOP is by far the best horse in this field but its his mind isnt always on the job and he isnt as in Love with racing as he used to be. I really fancied JUST AMAZING in this last year but he has a layoff to overcome and is best avoided today. BLACKSTAFF would prefer soft ground for his best chance today. ON THE FRINGE was fourth in this last year and Enda Bolger says he was a baby last year and the experience will help him no end. SALSIFY will love the ground and should give his best today, a serious contender. CHAPOTURGEON is a past festival winner and has taken very nicely to hunter chasing, definitely cant rule him out without a second look. CLOUDY LANE is very fancied by the McCain yard and was a very good horse in his younger years, he is a bit old in the tooth now and he may struggle in this tougher test today. The selection is Enda Bolger's ON THE FRINGE who is looking for some respite after losing Garde Champetre earlier in the week.
1st - On The Fringe
2nd - Salsify
3rd - Chapoturgeon
4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
MAKE A TRACK was my tip for the Supreme a while back but Charlie Swan brings him here instead of that option. He has been reported to be in fine form at home and looks to be solid today. TONER D'OUDAIRIES carries the second string Gigginstown Stud colours but is a shorter price in the market. I'd prefer the first string here though. ARAB LEAGUE absolutely dotted up at Taunton but didnt beat much that day, he is well in himself but this is alot tougher today. OSCAR NOMINEE is a huge price for a Henderson and Geraghty horse this week and has to be respected. He has looked a nice prospect but one or two look better in the field, very strong each way claims. GRANDAD'S HORSE had his winning run come to an end last time but that was against Fingal Bay and wasnt beaten by much in truth. Real live each way claims here today like alot in this field. ATTAGLANCE is a recent Market Rasen winner and has a very good claimer on board today. EMPIRE LEVANT was beaten earlier in the season by Rock on Ruby but he was getting alot of weight that day. The only disappointing race he has run was last time out, so he cant be overlooked. MOLOTOF has alot of weight but there is a reason for that as he is a graded winner over hurdles at Ascot earlier in the season. MAKE A TRACK is the selection today in a hope that the faster ground brings a bit more improvement in him
1st - Make a track
2nd - Molotof
3rd - Oscar Nominee
4th - Attaglance
5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
Nicky Henderson has gone all out this year to win his fathers race. He saddles ERADICATE, KID CASSIDY, TANKS FOR THAT, ANQUETTA, FRENCH OPERA and BELLVANO. Alot of people will have different thoughts about his best chance. Personally i think KID CASSIDY is his best chance to win the race who last time out had KUMBESHWAR behind him at Doncaster and if that form holds up he should have the beating of him again. TOUBAB has a brilliant chance but he doesnt find much off the bridle and id doubt he will be winning this on the bridle. DE BOITRON has been laid out for this race by Ferdy Murphy and Lucy Alexander gets the leg up for her first ever festival winner. Bryan Cooper really fancies LUCKY WILLIAM and he has real strong each way credentials and could even be good enough to win this race. OISEAU DE NUIT is last years winner and runs off 7 pounds higher than last year. Even with that burden he should still be right up there towards the end. We will take a chance on ASTRACAD however who loves the course and Nigel Twiston Davies hasnt hid the fact that he thinks he is his best chance of a winner at the Festival. Which is why he is the selection for the last race of the 2012 festival.
1st - Astracad
2nd - Lucky William
3rd - De Boitron
4th - Kid Cassidy
I hope i have given you a few winners over this week and you have enjoyed reading my blog
follow me on Twitter if you dont already @lukeyboy1325
happy punting
1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
Won last year by Zarkandar, Paul Nicholls sends two to post today in PEARL SWAN and DODGING BULLETS. The latter has had just the one run in England but was a very smart performer on the flat in Ireland, he was thrown in at the deep end first time out over hurdles and ran a very credible race when only 1 and a half lengths behind GRUMETI. He was awarded the race in the stewards room when he faced the main Nicholls horse and Ruby Walsh's mount meets him 3 pounds better off which should account for the main Alan King runner. Robert Thornton had a tough choice between him and BALDER SUCCES who has been very impressive in his two starts at Ascot but is yet to tackle a field of this size and may not be very street wise. HIS EXCELLENCY is a huge price for a Davy Russell ridden horse however he was beaten by HISAABAAT out of sight. That race also accounts for SHADOW CATCHER, COUNTRYWIDE FLAME, ASAID and UT DE SIVOLA. If that form is true today then Dermot Weld's gelding has account for a quarter of the field. He was also a useful horse on the flat which is always a positive attribute in the Triumph Hurdle. SADLERS RISK was disappointing behind BABY MIX after having such alot of potential to fill after his hurdles debut. Tom George's gelding was impressive last time and on his hurdles debut at this course. DARROUN has beaten HISAABAAT but on softer ground and the latter will be more suited to todays conditions. Which is why he is today's selection
1st - Hisaabaat
2nd - Pearl Swan
3rd - Darroun
2:05 - Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle
TED SPREAD and MASTER OF ARTS were both strongly fancied in last week's Imperial Cup but both disappointed hugely. The latter has the excuse of a big layoff so should be fitter this time, but the former just didnt seem good enough. LOCAL HERO came back off a layoff with a defeat by Simonsig by 3 and three quarter lengths, he has the bounce factor to overcome today though. UBI ACE is having his first run for Jonjo O'neill today but Tony Mccoy is claimed by JP on ALDERWOOD for Tom Mullins, he has been struggling as of late and never got in to his last race at Leopardstown. HELL'S BAY reverts back to hurdles after not taking back to fences after his break from racing. RAYA STAR has been fantastic this year and again cant be too far away this time. SNAP TIE is a class horse but has to come off of a 882 day lay off and may just struggle. PLAN A was fourth in this last year and forgive his last run he should be considered off a 6 pounds higher mark than last year. IFYOULETMEFINISH is a horse i like alot and goes handicapping for the first time today, he has form with alot of the English Triumph hurdle field and could be well handicapped. OLOFI also has been running well this year and was unlucky when looking like the winner at Newbury, he is expected to again go very close. DESERT CRY will need the ground softer but the stable is in form. CITIZENSHIP is up 15 pounds for a win last time out and that could account for his claims but is still expected to go well. REDERA is a nice horse and i know for a fact that the Tony Martin stable fancy this horse strongly, which is why he is the selection for today's race
1st - Redera
2nd - Ifyouletmefinish
3rd - Olofi
4th - Ubi Ace
2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
SEA OF THUNDER was a very unlucky loser here in December when sprinting clear and coming down at the last. He has to be fancied today even with a few strong opponents. LOVCEN is highly thought of by the King yard and has real live each way claims at a nice price. MOUNT BENBULBEN is fancied by Gordon Elliot and was runner up to BOSTON BOB on ground that the latter absolutely hated. Willie Mullins has sent him here instead of the Neptune earlier in the week and should take all the beating here. BRINDISI BREEZE would be a nice winner but he does go better on softer ground and Lucinda Russell will have been doing a rain dance this week. ROCKY CREEK is thought fairly highly of by Paul Nicholls and comes from a pointing background where Tom Malone bought him, he is very keen on him making a very nice horse, others are preferred today however. SIVOLA DE SIVOLA always seems to run his race and cant be dismissed at a juicy price however we will go with the strong favourite BOSTON BOB who looks fairly unbeatable at this level
1st - Boston Bob
2nd - Rocky Creek
3rd - Mount Benbulben
3:20 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
This is the big one, the one everyone has been waiting for. LONG RUN vs KAUTO STAR. You can guarantee that there wont be a dry eye in the house if the veteran wins this race. But he would be an unlikely winner at this stage of his career as with his new tactics in hand he shouldnt stay the extended 3 mile trip. Last years winner will relish in the longer trip. It would seem that the value to be had here is through each way betting. The race looks to be set up by MIDNIGHT CHASE who loves this course but was out of his depth last year and looks the same this year. QUEL ESPRIT won the Irish Hennessy but the Irish 3 mile chasers look distinctly average at the moment as SYNCHRONISED beat them comfortably and in my opinion he is just a very good handicapper. BURTON PORT ran a cracker on his return last time behind the favourite but does have the bounce factor to overcome, if fully fit he should be right there and give the main two most to think about. WEIRD AL is the each way selection who is apparently catching pigeons at home and the yard are in very good form lately. LONG RUN should make it back to back Gold Cups today though.
1st - Long Run
2nd - Weird Al
3rd - Kauto Star
4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
BARBERS SHOP is by far the best horse in this field but its his mind isnt always on the job and he isnt as in Love with racing as he used to be. I really fancied JUST AMAZING in this last year but he has a layoff to overcome and is best avoided today. BLACKSTAFF would prefer soft ground for his best chance today. ON THE FRINGE was fourth in this last year and Enda Bolger says he was a baby last year and the experience will help him no end. SALSIFY will love the ground and should give his best today, a serious contender. CHAPOTURGEON is a past festival winner and has taken very nicely to hunter chasing, definitely cant rule him out without a second look. CLOUDY LANE is very fancied by the McCain yard and was a very good horse in his younger years, he is a bit old in the tooth now and he may struggle in this tougher test today. The selection is Enda Bolger's ON THE FRINGE who is looking for some respite after losing Garde Champetre earlier in the week.
1st - On The Fringe
2nd - Salsify
3rd - Chapoturgeon
4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
MAKE A TRACK was my tip for the Supreme a while back but Charlie Swan brings him here instead of that option. He has been reported to be in fine form at home and looks to be solid today. TONER D'OUDAIRIES carries the second string Gigginstown Stud colours but is a shorter price in the market. I'd prefer the first string here though. ARAB LEAGUE absolutely dotted up at Taunton but didnt beat much that day, he is well in himself but this is alot tougher today. OSCAR NOMINEE is a huge price for a Henderson and Geraghty horse this week and has to be respected. He has looked a nice prospect but one or two look better in the field, very strong each way claims. GRANDAD'S HORSE had his winning run come to an end last time but that was against Fingal Bay and wasnt beaten by much in truth. Real live each way claims here today like alot in this field. ATTAGLANCE is a recent Market Rasen winner and has a very good claimer on board today. EMPIRE LEVANT was beaten earlier in the season by Rock on Ruby but he was getting alot of weight that day. The only disappointing race he has run was last time out, so he cant be overlooked. MOLOTOF has alot of weight but there is a reason for that as he is a graded winner over hurdles at Ascot earlier in the season. MAKE A TRACK is the selection today in a hope that the faster ground brings a bit more improvement in him
1st - Make a track
2nd - Molotof
3rd - Oscar Nominee
4th - Attaglance
5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
Nicky Henderson has gone all out this year to win his fathers race. He saddles ERADICATE, KID CASSIDY, TANKS FOR THAT, ANQUETTA, FRENCH OPERA and BELLVANO. Alot of people will have different thoughts about his best chance. Personally i think KID CASSIDY is his best chance to win the race who last time out had KUMBESHWAR behind him at Doncaster and if that form holds up he should have the beating of him again. TOUBAB has a brilliant chance but he doesnt find much off the bridle and id doubt he will be winning this on the bridle. DE BOITRON has been laid out for this race by Ferdy Murphy and Lucy Alexander gets the leg up for her first ever festival winner. Bryan Cooper really fancies LUCKY WILLIAM and he has real strong each way credentials and could even be good enough to win this race. OISEAU DE NUIT is last years winner and runs off 7 pounds higher than last year. Even with that burden he should still be right up there towards the end. We will take a chance on ASTRACAD however who loves the course and Nigel Twiston Davies hasnt hid the fact that he thinks he is his best chance of a winner at the Festival. Which is why he is the selection for the last race of the 2012 festival.
1st - Astracad
2nd - Lucky William
3rd - De Boitron
4th - Kid Cassidy
I hope i have given you a few winners over this week and you have enjoyed reading my blog
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happy punting
Cheltenham Festival Day 3
Day 2 seemed to be a bit more controversial than we had all thought with Wishfull Thinking falling at the 3rd, Sizing Europe and Finian's Rainbow settled down to fight it out and the defending champion looked set to go back to back turning for home. Can any more favourites seriously get beat? after all it is Big Bucks, so lets crack on with day 3.
1:30 - Jewson Novices Chase
The Alternative race for Donald McCain's PEDDLERS CROSS who looks to have made the right move in coming to this race after Sprinter Sacre's demolition job. The opposite way round and further trip than Kempton looks set to suit him down to the ground. He wont have it all his own way with the Scilly Isles winner FOR NON STOP in the field, chasing does look his game and he is a very genuine horse that always runs his race. He looks assured to put in another good effort today and had MICHEAL FLIPS 2 lengths behind him at Newbury. Andrew Turnell's horse has been a much better novice chaser than he was a hurdler and has run his socks off alot of times this season, this is a big step up in class today though. CHAMPION COURT won at this course on New Years Day and looked a very good prospect on that form, a reproduction of that wont put him two far away today. Behind him on that occasion was SOLIX who comes from a stable bang in form after dominating the card yesterday. He looks like a very good horse but shows a distinct lack of respect for the fences, better jumping will be needed to win this. SIR DES CHAMPS is a very fancied Irish runner and is unbeaten including winning the Martin Pipe conditional race last year and must have an outstanding chance of continuing his run. We are going to side with the impressive CRISTAL BONUS today though who is unbeaten over fences and since joining the Paul Nicholls stable. Lets hope these colours get a bit further than they did in the Champion Chase yesterday.
1st - Cristal Bonus
2nd - For Non Stop
3rd - Sir Des Champs
2:05 - Pertemps Final
A big field for the Pertemps this year and out of respect we have to start with the dual winner BUENA VISTA who has Tom Bellamy take off 10 pounds, he ran a much better race than his 9th place last time suggests. Donald McCain has had two winners this week and he saddles ACROSS THE BAY who cant be ruled out easily, he has been running well this year without reward and was completely out of his depth last time against Big Bucks. Big chance today. CAPE TRIBULATION is fancied today and not too long ago was considered a live Champion Hurdle contender. A return to his best puts him bang on the scene. There has been a bit of money for SERGENT GUIB'S this morning and has one of the strongest chances in the field justifying his second favourite tag. He is unexposed and inexperience comes with that which wont help in a field like this. OUR FATHER is the favourite and has been laid out for this race, he was very impressive when winning at Ascot under an ultra cool Timmy Murphy. He had an entry for the World Hurdle but was nothing more than an outside chance. RESTLESS HARRY has the burden of a top weight but is a very good horse, others are preferred today though. ASHKAZAR is a very good horse on his day but can be very in and out, it is a gamble what horse will turn up. PETTIFOUR came from a huge layoff to go down by a small distance at this track behind Dorset Square. A run like that is sure to hold him in good order. Barry Geraghty rides for Jonjo aboard THEHILLOFUISNEACH who has been in flying form this season and the ground may have been the cause for his last run. A chance today if he isnt too high in the handicap. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX beat KAYF ARAMIS here in January. The latter is better off today and both are capable of getting competitive. If RICK handles the faster ground he will have one of the leading chances after being 14 lengths behind Mourad on his last run. We will give CANTLOW another chance today though, he has been dropping down the weights but has run some very good races this year.
1st - Cantlow
2nd - Rick
3rd - Pettifour
4th - Houblon Des Obeaux
2:40 - Ryanair Chase
SOMERSBY has come in for notable market support and also even stronger on the exchanges today, he is also my bet of the week and his form took a huge boost yesterday with Finian's Rainbow now champion chaser. He wont have things his own way though with RIVERSIDE THEATRE a good favourite today and I cant have people who say he wont enjoy Cheltenham after flying up the hill in the Arkle in his only appearance at the track, he was 8 lengths behind Sizing Europe that day. But he is an improved horse now and 2 and a half miles is much more his distance. NOBLE PRINCE won the Jewson last year and has made a good step up to be a second season chaser but has found winning hard to come by. Another renowned runner up is FORPADYDEPLASTERER but isnt the horse he used to be, and there are one or two better today. RUBI LIGHT is another with a huge chance today but would be alot better on softer ground, saying that he did run a stellar race in this last year at fancy odds. I think Alan King chose the right option in sending MEDERMIT here instead of the Gold Cup, but i think he is just a tad short of being top class but has live place credentials. ALBERTAS RUN has won the last two renewals of this contest and is an admirable horse, he has won his only start this season at Aintree, but that wasnt a strong race really, however the festival brings him alive with 3 festival wins to his name. CAPTAIN CHRIS disgraced himself a little last time in the Argento but before that ran a brilliant race to come third in the King George, if he runs how we know he can then he has a live shout. SOMERSBY will take all the beating today though.
1st - Somersby
2nd - Riverside Theatre
3rd - Medermit
3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Usually with the name BIG BUCKS in a race it would seem a formality but the name of OSCAR WHISKY makes you second glance. The latter has unconfirmed stamina doubts but his 2 and a half mile form suggests he should have no problem in getting the extra trip. Whether he has the class to beat the Paul Nicholls' horse is a big worry though. MOURAD was third in this last year and bounced back to his best last time out, he has the potential to make his tag of 22/1 look very silly for each way punters. VOLER LA VEDETTE is a gorgeous mare but realistically is only going for the places today much like the others in the field. THOUSAND STARS won the Morgiana hurdle earlier in the year but last time didnt jump like he can last time and that cost him 2nd place as he wouldnt have got near Hurricane Fly. Another that has real live place claims is 2011 Neptune third SO YOUNG who has been running well this year and it would be no surprise to see him make a really good impression of himself today. My each way preference is for DYNASTE today though after looking to have BIG BUCKS measure for a few strides turning in last time but then having no answer when he quickened. David Pipe will have him spot on for this race today.
1st - Big Bucks
2nd - Dynaste
3rd - Oscar Whisky
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase
NOTUS DE LA TOUR could have gone for the Jewson but opted for this handicap today, his best run to date was over fences was his first run in Ireland when 2nd behind Blackstairmountain but this is his first handicap and whether he is good enough is in the air, he should make a good account of himself. This looks a hard race to win off top weight for TARTAK and even though CRACK AWAY JACK has some fancy form he may struggle today. HECTORS CHOICE looked to have Nacarat beat at Kempton when they swung for home but quickly emptied out over 3 miles, a return to this trip puts him in the mix. SALUT FLO'S second to Prince de beauchene looks very smart now and he must have a great chance. DIVERS will be at peak fitness for this race and Tony Mccoy on board isnt exactly a negative, but he is without a winner this week and may be worth avoiding. THE COCKNEY MACKEM has been running well this year but doesnt find much off the bridle, like last time when he was ran into the ground at Doncaster by Quentin Collonges. MAD MOOSE has a habit of making a mistake that costs him a race and round Cheltenham that really cant be done. HOLMWOOD LEGEND is already a festival winner in this race and the trainer has had a winner this week already. If Tom Taafe's FINGER ONTHE PULSE runs to his best then he will give his claimer a huge ride round Cheltenham and as anyone who reads this blog knows, im a huge Maurice Linehan fan. NICEONEFRANKIE has a fantastic chance and will be my choice today, he has improved no end this year and is due to be raised 3 pounds in the future. His win at Newbury suggests he still has a bit in hand so we will take our chance on him.
1st - Niceonefrankie
2nd - Notus De La Tour
3rd - Hector's Choice
4th - Salut Flo
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
MOSTLY BOB is a course winner and caught the eye that day but he is prone to making a few mistakes through his races and he would be a tentative selection. However i do fancy him to run well. FAASEL loves this race and found the winning way last time after a long losing streak. He has been running well for a long time though and should make a good account of himself again. ADAMS ISLAND has improved no end since moving to Paul Nolan's stable but may find this test a bit too much, and is also prone to the odd mistake during a race. BENBANE HEAD is a course and distance winner although it is hard to see him getting competitive today. MIDNIGHT APPEAL won last time up at Sandown and is a very strong leading chance after being ultra consistent this year. YOUR BUSY has a live outside chance and has been second here but looked like he needed further that time, this is a very live outsider. BE THERE IN FIVE was 3rd in the 4 miler last year but since then hasnt completed a race, he must show alot more to even think about getting competitive. EXMOOR RANGER won at Ascot earlier in the year but never runs two races the same and since then has fallen and come fifth, if he is having a going day then he could be a lead contender. Its hard to trust him though. SUNNYHILLBOY has been backed in this morning but he usually struggles in these big handicaps, and will place at best. Nina Carberry rides START ME UP who won a good ground bumper at Cheltenham in 2009, his recent form will give him a chance today but others are preferred, the jockey is a positive booking. The selection today is SWING BILL who won the amateur riders event in November at this track after making an awful mistake on the second circuit. He is usually a sound enough jumper and we take a chance on the good ground to bring a win from him.
1st - Swing Bill
2nd - Midnight Appeal
3rd - Your Busy
4th - Faasel
bet of the day - cristal bonus and somersby double
Happy Punting
1:30 - Jewson Novices Chase
The Alternative race for Donald McCain's PEDDLERS CROSS who looks to have made the right move in coming to this race after Sprinter Sacre's demolition job. The opposite way round and further trip than Kempton looks set to suit him down to the ground. He wont have it all his own way with the Scilly Isles winner FOR NON STOP in the field, chasing does look his game and he is a very genuine horse that always runs his race. He looks assured to put in another good effort today and had MICHEAL FLIPS 2 lengths behind him at Newbury. Andrew Turnell's horse has been a much better novice chaser than he was a hurdler and has run his socks off alot of times this season, this is a big step up in class today though. CHAMPION COURT won at this course on New Years Day and looked a very good prospect on that form, a reproduction of that wont put him two far away today. Behind him on that occasion was SOLIX who comes from a stable bang in form after dominating the card yesterday. He looks like a very good horse but shows a distinct lack of respect for the fences, better jumping will be needed to win this. SIR DES CHAMPS is a very fancied Irish runner and is unbeaten including winning the Martin Pipe conditional race last year and must have an outstanding chance of continuing his run. We are going to side with the impressive CRISTAL BONUS today though who is unbeaten over fences and since joining the Paul Nicholls stable. Lets hope these colours get a bit further than they did in the Champion Chase yesterday.
1st - Cristal Bonus
2nd - For Non Stop
3rd - Sir Des Champs
2:05 - Pertemps Final
A big field for the Pertemps this year and out of respect we have to start with the dual winner BUENA VISTA who has Tom Bellamy take off 10 pounds, he ran a much better race than his 9th place last time suggests. Donald McCain has had two winners this week and he saddles ACROSS THE BAY who cant be ruled out easily, he has been running well this year without reward and was completely out of his depth last time against Big Bucks. Big chance today. CAPE TRIBULATION is fancied today and not too long ago was considered a live Champion Hurdle contender. A return to his best puts him bang on the scene. There has been a bit of money for SERGENT GUIB'S this morning and has one of the strongest chances in the field justifying his second favourite tag. He is unexposed and inexperience comes with that which wont help in a field like this. OUR FATHER is the favourite and has been laid out for this race, he was very impressive when winning at Ascot under an ultra cool Timmy Murphy. He had an entry for the World Hurdle but was nothing more than an outside chance. RESTLESS HARRY has the burden of a top weight but is a very good horse, others are preferred today though. ASHKAZAR is a very good horse on his day but can be very in and out, it is a gamble what horse will turn up. PETTIFOUR came from a huge layoff to go down by a small distance at this track behind Dorset Square. A run like that is sure to hold him in good order. Barry Geraghty rides for Jonjo aboard THEHILLOFUISNEACH who has been in flying form this season and the ground may have been the cause for his last run. A chance today if he isnt too high in the handicap. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX beat KAYF ARAMIS here in January. The latter is better off today and both are capable of getting competitive. If RICK handles the faster ground he will have one of the leading chances after being 14 lengths behind Mourad on his last run. We will give CANTLOW another chance today though, he has been dropping down the weights but has run some very good races this year.
1st - Cantlow
2nd - Rick
3rd - Pettifour
4th - Houblon Des Obeaux
2:40 - Ryanair Chase
SOMERSBY has come in for notable market support and also even stronger on the exchanges today, he is also my bet of the week and his form took a huge boost yesterday with Finian's Rainbow now champion chaser. He wont have things his own way though with RIVERSIDE THEATRE a good favourite today and I cant have people who say he wont enjoy Cheltenham after flying up the hill in the Arkle in his only appearance at the track, he was 8 lengths behind Sizing Europe that day. But he is an improved horse now and 2 and a half miles is much more his distance. NOBLE PRINCE won the Jewson last year and has made a good step up to be a second season chaser but has found winning hard to come by. Another renowned runner up is FORPADYDEPLASTERER but isnt the horse he used to be, and there are one or two better today. RUBI LIGHT is another with a huge chance today but would be alot better on softer ground, saying that he did run a stellar race in this last year at fancy odds. I think Alan King chose the right option in sending MEDERMIT here instead of the Gold Cup, but i think he is just a tad short of being top class but has live place credentials. ALBERTAS RUN has won the last two renewals of this contest and is an admirable horse, he has won his only start this season at Aintree, but that wasnt a strong race really, however the festival brings him alive with 3 festival wins to his name. CAPTAIN CHRIS disgraced himself a little last time in the Argento but before that ran a brilliant race to come third in the King George, if he runs how we know he can then he has a live shout. SOMERSBY will take all the beating today though.
1st - Somersby
2nd - Riverside Theatre
3rd - Medermit
3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Usually with the name BIG BUCKS in a race it would seem a formality but the name of OSCAR WHISKY makes you second glance. The latter has unconfirmed stamina doubts but his 2 and a half mile form suggests he should have no problem in getting the extra trip. Whether he has the class to beat the Paul Nicholls' horse is a big worry though. MOURAD was third in this last year and bounced back to his best last time out, he has the potential to make his tag of 22/1 look very silly for each way punters. VOLER LA VEDETTE is a gorgeous mare but realistically is only going for the places today much like the others in the field. THOUSAND STARS won the Morgiana hurdle earlier in the year but last time didnt jump like he can last time and that cost him 2nd place as he wouldnt have got near Hurricane Fly. Another that has real live place claims is 2011 Neptune third SO YOUNG who has been running well this year and it would be no surprise to see him make a really good impression of himself today. My each way preference is for DYNASTE today though after looking to have BIG BUCKS measure for a few strides turning in last time but then having no answer when he quickened. David Pipe will have him spot on for this race today.
1st - Big Bucks
2nd - Dynaste
3rd - Oscar Whisky
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase
NOTUS DE LA TOUR could have gone for the Jewson but opted for this handicap today, his best run to date was over fences was his first run in Ireland when 2nd behind Blackstairmountain but this is his first handicap and whether he is good enough is in the air, he should make a good account of himself. This looks a hard race to win off top weight for TARTAK and even though CRACK AWAY JACK has some fancy form he may struggle today. HECTORS CHOICE looked to have Nacarat beat at Kempton when they swung for home but quickly emptied out over 3 miles, a return to this trip puts him in the mix. SALUT FLO'S second to Prince de beauchene looks very smart now and he must have a great chance. DIVERS will be at peak fitness for this race and Tony Mccoy on board isnt exactly a negative, but he is without a winner this week and may be worth avoiding. THE COCKNEY MACKEM has been running well this year but doesnt find much off the bridle, like last time when he was ran into the ground at Doncaster by Quentin Collonges. MAD MOOSE has a habit of making a mistake that costs him a race and round Cheltenham that really cant be done. HOLMWOOD LEGEND is already a festival winner in this race and the trainer has had a winner this week already. If Tom Taafe's FINGER ONTHE PULSE runs to his best then he will give his claimer a huge ride round Cheltenham and as anyone who reads this blog knows, im a huge Maurice Linehan fan. NICEONEFRANKIE has a fantastic chance and will be my choice today, he has improved no end this year and is due to be raised 3 pounds in the future. His win at Newbury suggests he still has a bit in hand so we will take our chance on him.
1st - Niceonefrankie
2nd - Notus De La Tour
3rd - Hector's Choice
4th - Salut Flo
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
MOSTLY BOB is a course winner and caught the eye that day but he is prone to making a few mistakes through his races and he would be a tentative selection. However i do fancy him to run well. FAASEL loves this race and found the winning way last time after a long losing streak. He has been running well for a long time though and should make a good account of himself again. ADAMS ISLAND has improved no end since moving to Paul Nolan's stable but may find this test a bit too much, and is also prone to the odd mistake during a race. BENBANE HEAD is a course and distance winner although it is hard to see him getting competitive today. MIDNIGHT APPEAL won last time up at Sandown and is a very strong leading chance after being ultra consistent this year. YOUR BUSY has a live outside chance and has been second here but looked like he needed further that time, this is a very live outsider. BE THERE IN FIVE was 3rd in the 4 miler last year but since then hasnt completed a race, he must show alot more to even think about getting competitive. EXMOOR RANGER won at Ascot earlier in the year but never runs two races the same and since then has fallen and come fifth, if he is having a going day then he could be a lead contender. Its hard to trust him though. SUNNYHILLBOY has been backed in this morning but he usually struggles in these big handicaps, and will place at best. Nina Carberry rides START ME UP who won a good ground bumper at Cheltenham in 2009, his recent form will give him a chance today but others are preferred, the jockey is a positive booking. The selection today is SWING BILL who won the amateur riders event in November at this track after making an awful mistake on the second circuit. He is usually a sound enough jumper and we take a chance on the good ground to bring a win from him.
1st - Swing Bill
2nd - Midnight Appeal
3rd - Your Busy
4th - Faasel
bet of the day - cristal bonus and somersby double
Happy Punting
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Cheltenham Festival Day 2
A huge shock on day one with the mighty Hurricane Fly being beat into third by Rock On Ruby and Overturn in the Champion hurdle. You just got the feeling that he was never really going too well before turning down the hill and finding very little compared to what he usually does. But in the good part of the day Cinders and Ashes landed the Supreme Novices for the blog and a heart warming family success for Hunt Ball in the last on the day, my bank balance profited yesterday but hey today is a new day.
1:30 - Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase
The usual marathon to start off day two in the National Hunt Chase and as always the Irish challenge is a strong one. But the home challenge is lead by HARRY THE VIKING from the Paul Nicholls yard and ridden by Will Biddick, he has done nothing wrong this year and has been in fantastic winning form at Doncaster. My only worry is that he doesnt do alot when he hits the front and you cant do that at Cheltenham. SOLL leads the away teams charge and has been tipped up by Pricewise, an absolute mountain of a horse and a winner of 2 out of his 3 starts but is still to prove himself on good ground. STRONGBOWS LEGEND stays absolutely all day but really doesnt look good enough. TEAFORTHREE also stays all day and is only a novice, he has won some really strong events though and looks to be one of the horses to beat in the race. IRON CHANCELLOR and LIVELY BARON look to only be playing to place chances today but both represent big name stables. UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has a strong chance but does seem to run best with more give in the ground. FOUR COMMANDERS is ultra consistent and always seems to run an honest race but when he has tried good ground he hasnt loved in and like many here looks more at home on a softer surface. The same cant be said for BLENHEIM BROOK who seems to go on absolutely any surface and isnt without a chance today but a place may be his best claims. OUR ISLAND finished half a length behind TEAFORTHREE in a beginners chase at the start of the year and is a much bigger price than the latter however he hasnt been in form as of late and has something to prove. This race has been planned for ALFIE SPINNER for a while and Sam Waley-Cohen gets the leg up today, he is a serious contender and ran a blinder last time at Ascot. But preference today is for the Willie Mullins horse ALLEE GARDE who has no ground worries and has been freshened up thanks to a break since January.
1st - Allee Garde
2nd - Alfie Spinner
3rd - Four Commanders
2:05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Rock on Ruby was second in this last year and the year before was won by Peddlers Cross, its clear recently this race has a good link to the Champion Hurdle and one that could be next making that step is SIMONSIG. Nicky Henderson turned down the chance to run in the Supreme yesterday in an attempt to sort out his jumping worries, but that is enough to oppose him today for me, saying that he is a very strong horse and is a worthy favourite, as im writing this BATONNIER has been confirmed as a non runner. In strong opposition to the favourite today Willie Mullins sends over SOUS LES CIEUX who has done nothing wrong in Ireland and suffered from a slow pace last time out but was getting there late on. It was mistakes that cost him that day and will need to be better this time and is a serious contender. NAGPUR has been running well lately but against much weaker competition and will need to improve considerably to land a blow. Towards the start of the season SECRET EDGE had some fancy form after winning the Wensleydale and is now the stables number one entry in this race. He has been freshened up since running here on trials day but looks to be playing for a place. NELSON'S BRIDGE beat Dualla Lord last time out and is yet another with strong place claims. MONKSLAND shot into the picture with a decisive victory at Naas in January, he is yet to encounter fast ground though and is best watched. He was ahead of Lyreen legend that day who had MAKE YOUR MARK behind him at Leopardstown. Its no secret Davy Russell fancies him and he has encountered fast ground in which he won on before. More will be needed though. John Ferguson has had a brilliant season and a notable Jockey booking on his horse COTTON MILL in Barry Geraghty. He won a trial for this race at Warwick and is well in with a shout today. Im going to take the value on FELIX YONGER however who hasnt done anything wrong since changing to the Mullins yard and will improve no end for good ground. An attractive price of 20/1 and 25s can be found in places, there is value to be had in this race and im siding with the Willie Mullins second string to give us a big race winner.
1st - Felix Yonger
2nd - Cotton Mill
3rd - Simonsig
2:40 - RSA Chase
Alot of horses with huge potential in this race none more so than GRAND CRUS who was argued to go for the Gold Cup and looks the one they all have to beat. He brings the best hurdle form to the table by far and has gone from strength to strength over fences. He had BOBS WORTH 5 lengths behind him in the Feltham at Kempton when really it could have been much further. Nicky Henderson's charge has been a bit disappointing over fences are promising so much over hurdles last year, but there could be more to come from him and is a contender. Mouse Morris really fancies FIRST LIEUTENANT to spoil the party for the big guns today but needs to show more here than he has at home. He beat Rock on Ruby here last year who won the Champion Hurdle yesterday. Another horse strongly fancied by connections is JOIN TOGETHER who is already a course and distance winner when he beat a useful field in November. He has won here twice this year and there is no doubt he loves the course after not being unplaced in 3 starts at Prestbury Park. MR MOONSHINE was my fancy a while ago and is a lovely bold front running type but does look out of his depth here, Shane Byrne gets the leg up today which is a positive from Henry Oliver. Alan King has a live outsider in WALKON who looks as if he really needs 3 miles to produce his best over fences. He will however need to produce a career best today. CALL THE POLICE ran a cracker on his comeback run and as long as the bounce factor doesnt affect him he should have live each way claims. Its very hard to see past GRAND CRUS though
1st - Grand Crus
2nd - Call the Police
3rd - First Lieutenant
3:20 - Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase
Here we go then another Irish Banker in the main race on the day and again he looks pretty bomb proof. SIZING EUROPE'S best performance came in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December when destroying a very decent field which included back in second KAUTO STONE. He burst onto the scene at Down Royal with a big reputation and didnt let down his supporters, since then he ran second in a Tingle Creek and disappointed on his step up to two and a half miles at Ascot. A drop back in trip shouldnt be enough to see him win today but strong place claims are there. Disappointing in the Tingle Creek was WISHFULL THINKING who didnt enjoy leading that day and since the change of tactics in holding him up he as been a different horse. Second to FINIAN'S RAINBOW at Kempton before disappointing at Ascot. The latter mentioned went down a gallant second to Somersby in the Victor Chandler and cant be dismissed easily. You get the feeling he will just need to step up on what he has done so far though. BIG ZEB has been here and done it after winning this race 2 years ago, an 11 year old now though he could be getting a bit long in the tooth. Though he always gives his all and is definitely a contender. REALT DUBH hasnt run this season but is reported to be in good order and has 'never felt better' according to Paul Carberry. He may just need this race today though. Each way claims though. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race here last year but isnt good enough whereas GAUVAIN probably needs further. SIZING EUROPE should make is two years in a row and a 3rd successive festival win.
1st - Sizing Europe
2nd - Kauto Stone
3rd - Finian's Rainbow
4:00 - Coral Cup
Only the 28 horses go to post for this years Coral Cup and they are head by Betfair Hurdle runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE who was badly hampered by Darlan falling in front of him that day and he may have won had he avoided that trouble. CARLITO BRIGANTE won this last year and is undoubtedly a very good horse but was no match for Big Bucks when they met at Aintree. There arent any horses of that caliber today though and he should be there at the finish. BALGARRY sneaks in at the bottom and could be anything after an impressive win at Newbury. That was his first run in England but they do have the bounce factor to overcome today though. SPIRIT RIVER is another that has won this before when getting home in front here 2 years ago but seems to have lost his way lately since trying chasing. CONSIGLIERE will want it softer and the same may go for TENOR NIVERNAIS. Brendan Powell has a live chance in his first festival ride aboard ACT OF KALANISI who runs well in these handicap hurdles, but there may be others that are better in the field. THIRD INTENTION was the very impressive winner of the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell but hasnt really shined in big handicaps this season. DARE ME ran a nice race at Taunton and was squeezed out when passing a hurdle, whether he would have won that day is doubtful and doesnt look good enough for today. CAPE DUTCH has been improving all year and runs off a career high mark which looks testing enough even with Jack Quinlan's 5 pounds off. Chris Honour has one more win before he rides out his claim and retires, he rides his beloved POOLE MASTER and isnt without a chance but preference is for MEGASTAR to return to form with a bang. I just feel that a return to a big field will help him concentrate more on his racing and reproduce his best form. Saying that he could drop himself out and sulk.
1st - Megastar
2nd - Balgarry
3rd - Cape Dutch
4th - Carlito Brigante
4:40 - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Alot of ante post bets have been for Alan King's VENDOR after he has been talking it up like defeat is out of the question. Comparing him to Grumeti and Balder Succes. Racing off 129 he could take all the beating. SOLIWERY was behind COLEBROOK at Sandown but he may be better for that run as he was very green and just couldnt get past. Saying that the latter mentioned was very tough and looks to have a live outside chance and could hold on for a place. LEMON DROP RED is fancied by Paul Webber after getting off the mark over hurdles last time at Southwell. He may just be a bit short of the best in this race however. ULCK DU LIN is somewhat of an unknown quantity in the fact that he hasnt been seen in England but was a smart horse over hurdles in France and if translating the form he is in with a great shout. GORGEOUS SIXTY was outclassed last time in a grade one and has quite a bit to find but a positive is that Ruby has chosen him over the others available to him. ARDLUI won really well at Newbury first time out but disappointed at Doncaster next time out, a return to his debut form would put him bang there and has a great shout. Noel Meade has booked Maurice Linehan to claim 7 pounds off his BAT MASTERSON which is a notable jockey booking. He seemed to fancy his horses chance but on the form book he may have something to find on the main protagonists. KAZLIAN hasnt beaten much so far but its the fashion he has won it in is that has caught my eye. He is really fancied by David Pipe and should go very close. Im going to take a chance on Ardlui today though as Alan King's second string.
1st - Ardlui
2nd - Vendor
3rd - Bat Masterson
4th - Ulck Du Lin
5:15 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Last year this was the only race won by an English trained horse on this day, hopefully today is a bit different. But Hobbs and Johnson could hold the key to this race again this year with VILLAGE VIC who has been running well in all races, just touched off last time at Newbury he could take the beating today. NEW YEARS EVE is a nice horse and is unbeaten but may be a bit inexperienced, saying that i fancy him to run a strong race. THE NEW ONE won a bumper here on New years day but im just questioning how strong that race really was with the selection beating chancery by further than the twiston davies horse. CHAMPAGNE FEVER is bought over by Willie Mullins and is ridden by Paddy, this will be the first time he has encountered good ground and could be anything really. SIR JOHNSON is probably the most experienced in the race but has won 4 from 4 and 12/1 does look a big price. ROYAL GUARDSMAN has lost to SIR JOHNSON and there is no real reason why he should reverse that form. But Village Vic is the selection.
1st - Village Vic
2nd - New Years Eve
3rd - Champagne fever
happy punting everyone
1:30 - Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase
The usual marathon to start off day two in the National Hunt Chase and as always the Irish challenge is a strong one. But the home challenge is lead by HARRY THE VIKING from the Paul Nicholls yard and ridden by Will Biddick, he has done nothing wrong this year and has been in fantastic winning form at Doncaster. My only worry is that he doesnt do alot when he hits the front and you cant do that at Cheltenham. SOLL leads the away teams charge and has been tipped up by Pricewise, an absolute mountain of a horse and a winner of 2 out of his 3 starts but is still to prove himself on good ground. STRONGBOWS LEGEND stays absolutely all day but really doesnt look good enough. TEAFORTHREE also stays all day and is only a novice, he has won some really strong events though and looks to be one of the horses to beat in the race. IRON CHANCELLOR and LIVELY BARON look to only be playing to place chances today but both represent big name stables. UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has a strong chance but does seem to run best with more give in the ground. FOUR COMMANDERS is ultra consistent and always seems to run an honest race but when he has tried good ground he hasnt loved in and like many here looks more at home on a softer surface. The same cant be said for BLENHEIM BROOK who seems to go on absolutely any surface and isnt without a chance today but a place may be his best claims. OUR ISLAND finished half a length behind TEAFORTHREE in a beginners chase at the start of the year and is a much bigger price than the latter however he hasnt been in form as of late and has something to prove. This race has been planned for ALFIE SPINNER for a while and Sam Waley-Cohen gets the leg up today, he is a serious contender and ran a blinder last time at Ascot. But preference today is for the Willie Mullins horse ALLEE GARDE who has no ground worries and has been freshened up thanks to a break since January.
1st - Allee Garde
2nd - Alfie Spinner
3rd - Four Commanders
2:05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Rock on Ruby was second in this last year and the year before was won by Peddlers Cross, its clear recently this race has a good link to the Champion Hurdle and one that could be next making that step is SIMONSIG. Nicky Henderson turned down the chance to run in the Supreme yesterday in an attempt to sort out his jumping worries, but that is enough to oppose him today for me, saying that he is a very strong horse and is a worthy favourite, as im writing this BATONNIER has been confirmed as a non runner. In strong opposition to the favourite today Willie Mullins sends over SOUS LES CIEUX who has done nothing wrong in Ireland and suffered from a slow pace last time out but was getting there late on. It was mistakes that cost him that day and will need to be better this time and is a serious contender. NAGPUR has been running well lately but against much weaker competition and will need to improve considerably to land a blow. Towards the start of the season SECRET EDGE had some fancy form after winning the Wensleydale and is now the stables number one entry in this race. He has been freshened up since running here on trials day but looks to be playing for a place. NELSON'S BRIDGE beat Dualla Lord last time out and is yet another with strong place claims. MONKSLAND shot into the picture with a decisive victory at Naas in January, he is yet to encounter fast ground though and is best watched. He was ahead of Lyreen legend that day who had MAKE YOUR MARK behind him at Leopardstown. Its no secret Davy Russell fancies him and he has encountered fast ground in which he won on before. More will be needed though. John Ferguson has had a brilliant season and a notable Jockey booking on his horse COTTON MILL in Barry Geraghty. He won a trial for this race at Warwick and is well in with a shout today. Im going to take the value on FELIX YONGER however who hasnt done anything wrong since changing to the Mullins yard and will improve no end for good ground. An attractive price of 20/1 and 25s can be found in places, there is value to be had in this race and im siding with the Willie Mullins second string to give us a big race winner.
1st - Felix Yonger
2nd - Cotton Mill
3rd - Simonsig
2:40 - RSA Chase
Alot of horses with huge potential in this race none more so than GRAND CRUS who was argued to go for the Gold Cup and looks the one they all have to beat. He brings the best hurdle form to the table by far and has gone from strength to strength over fences. He had BOBS WORTH 5 lengths behind him in the Feltham at Kempton when really it could have been much further. Nicky Henderson's charge has been a bit disappointing over fences are promising so much over hurdles last year, but there could be more to come from him and is a contender. Mouse Morris really fancies FIRST LIEUTENANT to spoil the party for the big guns today but needs to show more here than he has at home. He beat Rock on Ruby here last year who won the Champion Hurdle yesterday. Another horse strongly fancied by connections is JOIN TOGETHER who is already a course and distance winner when he beat a useful field in November. He has won here twice this year and there is no doubt he loves the course after not being unplaced in 3 starts at Prestbury Park. MR MOONSHINE was my fancy a while ago and is a lovely bold front running type but does look out of his depth here, Shane Byrne gets the leg up today which is a positive from Henry Oliver. Alan King has a live outsider in WALKON who looks as if he really needs 3 miles to produce his best over fences. He will however need to produce a career best today. CALL THE POLICE ran a cracker on his comeback run and as long as the bounce factor doesnt affect him he should have live each way claims. Its very hard to see past GRAND CRUS though
1st - Grand Crus
2nd - Call the Police
3rd - First Lieutenant
3:20 - Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase
Here we go then another Irish Banker in the main race on the day and again he looks pretty bomb proof. SIZING EUROPE'S best performance came in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December when destroying a very decent field which included back in second KAUTO STONE. He burst onto the scene at Down Royal with a big reputation and didnt let down his supporters, since then he ran second in a Tingle Creek and disappointed on his step up to two and a half miles at Ascot. A drop back in trip shouldnt be enough to see him win today but strong place claims are there. Disappointing in the Tingle Creek was WISHFULL THINKING who didnt enjoy leading that day and since the change of tactics in holding him up he as been a different horse. Second to FINIAN'S RAINBOW at Kempton before disappointing at Ascot. The latter mentioned went down a gallant second to Somersby in the Victor Chandler and cant be dismissed easily. You get the feeling he will just need to step up on what he has done so far though. BIG ZEB has been here and done it after winning this race 2 years ago, an 11 year old now though he could be getting a bit long in the tooth. Though he always gives his all and is definitely a contender. REALT DUBH hasnt run this season but is reported to be in good order and has 'never felt better' according to Paul Carberry. He may just need this race today though. Each way claims though. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race here last year but isnt good enough whereas GAUVAIN probably needs further. SIZING EUROPE should make is two years in a row and a 3rd successive festival win.
1st - Sizing Europe
2nd - Kauto Stone
3rd - Finian's Rainbow
4:00 - Coral Cup
Only the 28 horses go to post for this years Coral Cup and they are head by Betfair Hurdle runner up GET ME OUT OF HERE who was badly hampered by Darlan falling in front of him that day and he may have won had he avoided that trouble. CARLITO BRIGANTE won this last year and is undoubtedly a very good horse but was no match for Big Bucks when they met at Aintree. There arent any horses of that caliber today though and he should be there at the finish. BALGARRY sneaks in at the bottom and could be anything after an impressive win at Newbury. That was his first run in England but they do have the bounce factor to overcome today though. SPIRIT RIVER is another that has won this before when getting home in front here 2 years ago but seems to have lost his way lately since trying chasing. CONSIGLIERE will want it softer and the same may go for TENOR NIVERNAIS. Brendan Powell has a live chance in his first festival ride aboard ACT OF KALANISI who runs well in these handicap hurdles, but there may be others that are better in the field. THIRD INTENTION was the very impressive winner of the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell but hasnt really shined in big handicaps this season. DARE ME ran a nice race at Taunton and was squeezed out when passing a hurdle, whether he would have won that day is doubtful and doesnt look good enough for today. CAPE DUTCH has been improving all year and runs off a career high mark which looks testing enough even with Jack Quinlan's 5 pounds off. Chris Honour has one more win before he rides out his claim and retires, he rides his beloved POOLE MASTER and isnt without a chance but preference is for MEGASTAR to return to form with a bang. I just feel that a return to a big field will help him concentrate more on his racing and reproduce his best form. Saying that he could drop himself out and sulk.
1st - Megastar
2nd - Balgarry
3rd - Cape Dutch
4th - Carlito Brigante
4:40 - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Alot of ante post bets have been for Alan King's VENDOR after he has been talking it up like defeat is out of the question. Comparing him to Grumeti and Balder Succes. Racing off 129 he could take all the beating. SOLIWERY was behind COLEBROOK at Sandown but he may be better for that run as he was very green and just couldnt get past. Saying that the latter mentioned was very tough and looks to have a live outside chance and could hold on for a place. LEMON DROP RED is fancied by Paul Webber after getting off the mark over hurdles last time at Southwell. He may just be a bit short of the best in this race however. ULCK DU LIN is somewhat of an unknown quantity in the fact that he hasnt been seen in England but was a smart horse over hurdles in France and if translating the form he is in with a great shout. GORGEOUS SIXTY was outclassed last time in a grade one and has quite a bit to find but a positive is that Ruby has chosen him over the others available to him. ARDLUI won really well at Newbury first time out but disappointed at Doncaster next time out, a return to his debut form would put him bang there and has a great shout. Noel Meade has booked Maurice Linehan to claim 7 pounds off his BAT MASTERSON which is a notable jockey booking. He seemed to fancy his horses chance but on the form book he may have something to find on the main protagonists. KAZLIAN hasnt beaten much so far but its the fashion he has won it in is that has caught my eye. He is really fancied by David Pipe and should go very close. Im going to take a chance on Ardlui today though as Alan King's second string.
1st - Ardlui
2nd - Vendor
3rd - Bat Masterson
4th - Ulck Du Lin
5:15 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Last year this was the only race won by an English trained horse on this day, hopefully today is a bit different. But Hobbs and Johnson could hold the key to this race again this year with VILLAGE VIC who has been running well in all races, just touched off last time at Newbury he could take the beating today. NEW YEARS EVE is a nice horse and is unbeaten but may be a bit inexperienced, saying that i fancy him to run a strong race. THE NEW ONE won a bumper here on New years day but im just questioning how strong that race really was with the selection beating chancery by further than the twiston davies horse. CHAMPAGNE FEVER is bought over by Willie Mullins and is ridden by Paddy, this will be the first time he has encountered good ground and could be anything really. SIR JOHNSON is probably the most experienced in the race but has won 4 from 4 and 12/1 does look a big price. ROYAL GUARDSMAN has lost to SIR JOHNSON and there is no real reason why he should reverse that form. But Village Vic is the selection.
1st - Village Vic
2nd - New Years Eve
3rd - Champagne fever
happy punting everyone
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Cheltenham Festival Day 1
Ladies and Gentlemen, its here! The 2012 Cheltenham Festival begins today, a day where all the hype comes to an end, when all the talk finishes and the action begins. Sixty Thousand spectators are expected to take to Prestbury Park today. So without further ado lets kick on to the first day of the Cheltenham Festival
1:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle
19 go to post for this years Supreme and it looks full to the seams of class, DARLAN is favourite for the race after his tumble last time at Newbury, if all is well with him he should go very close but the hill may find him out in this classier race. Two that are guaranteed to get up the hill are STEPS TO FREEDOM and PROSPECT WELLS who fought out a finish here in November in which the former got his head in front. Jessica Harrington's horse was giving away 3 pounds that day but hasn't run since, he should be fighting fit and Robbie Power thinks he has an outstanding chance. Paul Nicholls won this race last year with Al Ferof and has only one runner this year. Despite going down to his rival today he ran a race too bad to be true in a slowly run Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, it turned out he suffered an injury that day and will be alot better today. He was behind runner up COLOUR SQUADRON that day who threw the race away by hanging violently to the left, this is the other way round today so that wont be a problem. The most worrying thing was his fall last time out and may struggle today. There is some each way support behind Noel Meade's DYLAN ROSS who has made a habit of coming second in big races, one of them seconds was behind MIDNIGHT GAME who carries the Gigginstown stud second colours today. His chance really depends on how he handles the better ground today but looks a bit short of the main characters here. The first string of the Gigginstown colours are carried by Davy Russell on TRIFOLIUM who entered notebooks for his display last time out when winning a Grade 2 at Punchestown, ground is an unknown though. Behind him the last day was SIMENON who was classy on the flat but needs to improve to get competitive today. TETLAMI is unbeaten over hurdles and is an excellent second string for Nicky Henderson, it would be no surprise to see him ruffle a few feathers today but may be short on class today. He has beaten VULCANITE who has done nothing wrong over hurdles since switching from the flat but will need to prove he is capable of winning a race of this quality. Last time out he was behind MONTBAZON who is held in high regard by Alan King and has gone from strength to strength. He emptied out quickly in his first run this season here but that could be to do with fitness, he does however need to prove his love for the course. GALILEO'S CHOICE was a good second in the Royal Bond before winning a Novice Hurdle very impressively, in truth he didnt beat much though, very strong each way claims but Dermot Weld thinks his chance may be hindered by inexperience of the hurdling game. Charlie Longsdon is a trainer in form and he saddles HAZY TOM in this race who looks exposed after losing the last two races and should be out of his depth here. ALLURE OF ILLUSION'S jumping let him down last time when he dead heated in a maiden hurdle, unless he improves its hard to fancy him today. Im going for Donald McCain and Jason Maguire to get off to a flyer with CINDERS AND ASHES who has had a more laid back campaign than some of the others in this race and has done nothing wrong on ground he doesnt really like. An unfortunate runner up in his hurdling debut after being murdered at a hurdle by Ted Spread and losing the best part of 10 lengths. He was still only beaten a length by Broadbackbob but since then is unbeaten and a return to good ground will bring endless improvement. Hope you were on ante-post when mentioned previously.
1st - Cinders And Ashes
2nd - Tetlami
3rd - Prospect Wells
2:05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy
Only six go to post today in what you would imagine is down to the presence of the immense SPRINTER SACRE who has been electric in all his chases so far and claiming some notable scalps on his way. These include seasoned chaser French Opera in the Game Spirit at Newbury when winning effortlessly on the bridle. The worry the last couple of weeks has been if he will get up the hill after emptying out last year in the Supreme quickly. He looks a different horse than last year and is a year older though and is probably just hype in trying to get him beat. His main opponent is Paul Nicholls trained AL FEROF who won the Supreme this day last year. Unbeaten in Novice company this year but was beaten last time out against more experienced chasers in Somersby and Finian's Rainbow. Looking at it that was a really good performance to come third to them two considering what prices they are in their respected races. A good pace looks assured courtesy of CUE CARD who may help set the race up for Paul Nicholls charge however jumping doesnt come as natural to him as it does the other two. MENORAH was a high class hurdler for the past two seasons but has never really taken to chasing making notable mistakes in all his races when unseating at Exeter and falling at Doncaster last time out. For the last month the only thing he has done is jump fences and should be alot better today, but is still opposed. BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN was 7th in last years County Hurdle and looks up against it today. FOILDUBH looks to be here for minor place money but is no slouch. I find it very hard to take on Sprinter Sacre today though and the first banker should go in.
1st - Sprinter Sacre
2nd - Al Ferof
2:40 - JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
The first handicap of the 2012 festival and an ultra competitive one at that. We will start with the top weight QUANTITATIVEEASING who won the the Spinal Research handicap chase here in December he is up 10 pounds for that victory and for that rise looks up against it. The other Nicky Henderson horse is the novice MOSSLEY who hasnt taken to fences as would have hoped but isnt short on ability and any improvement should see him go close under a fighting weight. HOLD ON JULIO is potentially well handicapped and has won all his chases under rules including two big handicaps at Sandown. He should go very close today and will have no trouble up the hill after his Sandown wins and could bag back to back wins in this race for trainer Alan King. Nick Gifford has TULLAMORE DEW in this after he ran a blinder at Ascot last time out and it would be a fairytale were he to win today. FRUITY O'ROONEY has been in fantastic form this year and may have been closer last time out if it werent for a slipping saddle. He looks set to run another bold race but may struggle to get his head in front where it counts. PENTIFFIC ran a fantastic race in the Grimthorpe last time but did have a tough race that day and may just need a break after 2 quick runs. THE PACKAGE was done on the line at the Festival 2 years ago and hasnt been seen for 493 days, but fitness shouldnt be a problem here and if at his best should go close. NOLAND is getting a bit old in the tooth now but if he runs anywhere near his best today he should take all the beating and is an attractive each way price. ALFIE SHERRIN is a pound out of the handicap and gets in off a low weight but hasnt been in sparkling form, a return to his best will put him close in Jonjo's only runner of the day. OUR MICK ran a fantastic race last time out in the Scilly Isles behind For Non Stop and has been in really good form so far this year, so its hard to see him out of the places. Last years RSA 4th MAGNANIMITY has run some decent races this year but mistakes look to cost him each time, a clear round will take him close. A very strong preference is for BAILE ANRAI who was running a big race last time in the Reynoldstown when coming down, if he had stood up there he would be rated alot higher and off a fly weight today looks a steal. He was second behind Fingal Bay over hurdles beaten 6 lengths and Ian Williams was praying for him to get into this race. Best bet of the day
1st - Baile Anrai
2nd - Our Mick
3rd - Hold on Julio
4th - Noland
3:20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
HURRICANE FLY looks good to take a step towards joining the greats today when looking to land his 2nd Champion hurdle. Off the course for a while he came back with a huge bang at Leopardstown when destroying a good field in the Irish Champion Hurdle. In that field was OSCARS WELL who hated the ground that day and will be much better for the better ground today but should still come up a bit short against the favourite today. Willie Mullins gelding's main threat today should be BINOCULAR who won this race 2 years ago and couldnt run in the race last year by no fault of his own. He looked back near his best when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last time. In that race was CELESTIAL HALO who is a more than admirable horse, not the force of old but proved he still has some sparkle when winning a handicap under top weight at Newbury. This however may be too much for him. Another horse that has seen BINOCULAR'S backside this year is Christmas Hurdle runner up ROCK ON RUBY who will be more suited by 2 miles round here than the same trip at Kempton. Probably not good enough to win today but has strong each way claims. OVERTURN is one of the toughest horses in training and has beaten Nicky Henderson's horse this season in the Fighting Fifth. A break since his last run in the Christmas Hurdle when looking like he needed a break badly, a fresh horse should make a bold show but shouldnt be good enough here. A neck behind him in the International Hurdle was BRAMPOUR who has won 2 big handicaps this year and was running on under top weight last time out behind ZARKANDAR in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury. Last years unbeaten Triumph hurdle winner should give a good account of himself but may find it a bit tough at the end of the race. ZAIDPOUR is a very good horse in his own right but looks totally ground dependent and this is not what he wants today. KALANN is the other runner in the field and is a huge price for a horse that is a course and distance winner and prefers good ground. Saying that he is out of his depth here and shouldnt land a blow. HURRICANE FLY should take all the beating today.
1st - Hurricane Fly
2nd - Rock On Ruby
3rd - Binocular
4:00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase
A race dominated over the years by Enda Bolger and JP Mcmanus, as of late they havent had it their own way though since Willie Mullins has entered these races. WEDGER PARDY will take them along today and was running a big race when all but 3 of the field took the wrong course at Cheltenham in the last cross country race. That was eventually won by GARDE CHAMPETRE who could probably run round this course blindfolded he has done it that many times, he is looking a bit old in the tooth now and shouldnt reverse the form with SCOTSIRISH who was fancied in a Ryanair at one time in his career. Strongly fancied by the Irish he looks to have an outstanding chance and should take all the beating. GONE TO LUNCH tries this race for the first time in his career and will be interesting if taking to the fences, but it is a gamble however. DOUBLE DIZZY always runs his race and was 3rd here in November, on that form he is a very live contender and should not be dismissed. DREAM ALLIANCE has won a Welsh National but should struggle against these opponents today. BALTHAZAR KING has never completed a cross country race when leaving Richard Johnson red faced after taking the wrong course and taking most of the field with him last time. UNCLE JUNIOR has won over this course and distance today and is very high in the weights, even with Emmet Mullins taking 3 pounds off his back. Last years winner SIZING AUSTRALIA should be bang there at the end and he loves this course. A positive prep run over hurdles he should be very fit today and go very close. Preference today is for last years 4th horse who has been laid out for this race all year, this horse is MALJIMAR who should go very close
1st - Maljimar
2nd - Double Dizzy
3rd - Sizing Australia
4th - Garde Champetre
4:40 - OLBG David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Well this race shouldnt take too long to evaluate as nothing should get near the superstar mare QUEVEGA who has beaten everything to come at her in this race for the last 3 years without lifting an eyelid. It would be one of the major shocks of the festival were she to get beat. In theory the others are playing for the minor prize money. SHOP DJ is one coming in for each way support this morning after a season chasing. She won her prep race at Dundalk on the flat and should be in with a very strong each way chance. WHAT A CHARM won the Fred Winter last year but since then has been a bit disappointing and will need to improve to land a blow here. KENTFORD GREY LADY has gone from strength to strength this year and looks the strongest chance of a place in this field. She was behind VIOLIN DAVIS at Ascot but that wasnt a true run race and it turned into a sprint at the end. ALASI is a gorgeous mare and was just run out of a place last year and should run her race again this year after going chasing. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote in brave fashion before a 3rd at Ascot, she may struggle today when upped in class and others are preferred. but QUEVEGA is the obvious selection and should win her 4th consecutive race.
1st - Quevega
2nd - Alasi
3rd - Kentford Grey Lady
5:15 - Pulteney Land Investment Novices Handicap Chase
HUNT BALL carries 12 stone here but he doesnt actually have to give too much weight away with the bottom weight carrying only 11-4. Upped 70 pounds this year it would take a monumental effort to win today but has shown no sign of stopping his improvement yet. TRIOLO D'ALENE looks set to go off favourite and has had only one run in England which he won at Ascot, in that race he beat ACKERTAC into second place after producing a better jump at the last. Nigel Twiston Davies' charge has to be considered after Sam said it was his best chance on the first day. BLESS THE WINGS has won over course and distance and looks set to run a big race again and form could be franked by Our Mick earlier on. THAT'LL DO runs for the Champion Trainer and has to be respected, vibes from this stable are good about the horse so expect a good show from him today. VINO GRIEGO is a pound lower than he was when second at Ascot should run a good race again, but he has been out of form since his 2nd behind The Minack. BATTLE GROUP has a mind of his own and cant be trusted, if he puts his best foot forward though he could win this easily. MIC'S DELIGHT is a horse going the right way over fences and although the big step up in class he should give another good account of himself, but may find one or two too good today. Aidan Coleman has claimed CARRICKBOY as his best chance of the first day and a win at Hereford the other day boosts his credentials, five pound penalty carried today though. EDUCATED EVANS has been in flying form this year and if all is well with him should be bang there, though he is Twiston-Davies' second string. We will take a chance on ACKERTAC today though.
1st - Ackertac
2nd - Triolo D'alene
3rd - Carrickboy
4th - That'll do
I hope everyone has a fantastic cheltenham festival and lets give the bookies a bashing!
Happy Punting
1:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle
19 go to post for this years Supreme and it looks full to the seams of class, DARLAN is favourite for the race after his tumble last time at Newbury, if all is well with him he should go very close but the hill may find him out in this classier race. Two that are guaranteed to get up the hill are STEPS TO FREEDOM and PROSPECT WELLS who fought out a finish here in November in which the former got his head in front. Jessica Harrington's horse was giving away 3 pounds that day but hasn't run since, he should be fighting fit and Robbie Power thinks he has an outstanding chance. Paul Nicholls won this race last year with Al Ferof and has only one runner this year. Despite going down to his rival today he ran a race too bad to be true in a slowly run Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, it turned out he suffered an injury that day and will be alot better today. He was behind runner up COLOUR SQUADRON that day who threw the race away by hanging violently to the left, this is the other way round today so that wont be a problem. The most worrying thing was his fall last time out and may struggle today. There is some each way support behind Noel Meade's DYLAN ROSS who has made a habit of coming second in big races, one of them seconds was behind MIDNIGHT GAME who carries the Gigginstown stud second colours today. His chance really depends on how he handles the better ground today but looks a bit short of the main characters here. The first string of the Gigginstown colours are carried by Davy Russell on TRIFOLIUM who entered notebooks for his display last time out when winning a Grade 2 at Punchestown, ground is an unknown though. Behind him the last day was SIMENON who was classy on the flat but needs to improve to get competitive today. TETLAMI is unbeaten over hurdles and is an excellent second string for Nicky Henderson, it would be no surprise to see him ruffle a few feathers today but may be short on class today. He has beaten VULCANITE who has done nothing wrong over hurdles since switching from the flat but will need to prove he is capable of winning a race of this quality. Last time out he was behind MONTBAZON who is held in high regard by Alan King and has gone from strength to strength. He emptied out quickly in his first run this season here but that could be to do with fitness, he does however need to prove his love for the course. GALILEO'S CHOICE was a good second in the Royal Bond before winning a Novice Hurdle very impressively, in truth he didnt beat much though, very strong each way claims but Dermot Weld thinks his chance may be hindered by inexperience of the hurdling game. Charlie Longsdon is a trainer in form and he saddles HAZY TOM in this race who looks exposed after losing the last two races and should be out of his depth here. ALLURE OF ILLUSION'S jumping let him down last time when he dead heated in a maiden hurdle, unless he improves its hard to fancy him today. Im going for Donald McCain and Jason Maguire to get off to a flyer with CINDERS AND ASHES who has had a more laid back campaign than some of the others in this race and has done nothing wrong on ground he doesnt really like. An unfortunate runner up in his hurdling debut after being murdered at a hurdle by Ted Spread and losing the best part of 10 lengths. He was still only beaten a length by Broadbackbob but since then is unbeaten and a return to good ground will bring endless improvement. Hope you were on ante-post when mentioned previously.
1st - Cinders And Ashes
2nd - Tetlami
3rd - Prospect Wells
2:05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy
Only six go to post today in what you would imagine is down to the presence of the immense SPRINTER SACRE who has been electric in all his chases so far and claiming some notable scalps on his way. These include seasoned chaser French Opera in the Game Spirit at Newbury when winning effortlessly on the bridle. The worry the last couple of weeks has been if he will get up the hill after emptying out last year in the Supreme quickly. He looks a different horse than last year and is a year older though and is probably just hype in trying to get him beat. His main opponent is Paul Nicholls trained AL FEROF who won the Supreme this day last year. Unbeaten in Novice company this year but was beaten last time out against more experienced chasers in Somersby and Finian's Rainbow. Looking at it that was a really good performance to come third to them two considering what prices they are in their respected races. A good pace looks assured courtesy of CUE CARD who may help set the race up for Paul Nicholls charge however jumping doesnt come as natural to him as it does the other two. MENORAH was a high class hurdler for the past two seasons but has never really taken to chasing making notable mistakes in all his races when unseating at Exeter and falling at Doncaster last time out. For the last month the only thing he has done is jump fences and should be alot better today, but is still opposed. BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN was 7th in last years County Hurdle and looks up against it today. FOILDUBH looks to be here for minor place money but is no slouch. I find it very hard to take on Sprinter Sacre today though and the first banker should go in.
1st - Sprinter Sacre
2nd - Al Ferof
2:40 - JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
The first handicap of the 2012 festival and an ultra competitive one at that. We will start with the top weight QUANTITATIVEEASING who won the the Spinal Research handicap chase here in December he is up 10 pounds for that victory and for that rise looks up against it. The other Nicky Henderson horse is the novice MOSSLEY who hasnt taken to fences as would have hoped but isnt short on ability and any improvement should see him go close under a fighting weight. HOLD ON JULIO is potentially well handicapped and has won all his chases under rules including two big handicaps at Sandown. He should go very close today and will have no trouble up the hill after his Sandown wins and could bag back to back wins in this race for trainer Alan King. Nick Gifford has TULLAMORE DEW in this after he ran a blinder at Ascot last time out and it would be a fairytale were he to win today. FRUITY O'ROONEY has been in fantastic form this year and may have been closer last time out if it werent for a slipping saddle. He looks set to run another bold race but may struggle to get his head in front where it counts. PENTIFFIC ran a fantastic race in the Grimthorpe last time but did have a tough race that day and may just need a break after 2 quick runs. THE PACKAGE was done on the line at the Festival 2 years ago and hasnt been seen for 493 days, but fitness shouldnt be a problem here and if at his best should go close. NOLAND is getting a bit old in the tooth now but if he runs anywhere near his best today he should take all the beating and is an attractive each way price. ALFIE SHERRIN is a pound out of the handicap and gets in off a low weight but hasnt been in sparkling form, a return to his best will put him close in Jonjo's only runner of the day. OUR MICK ran a fantastic race last time out in the Scilly Isles behind For Non Stop and has been in really good form so far this year, so its hard to see him out of the places. Last years RSA 4th MAGNANIMITY has run some decent races this year but mistakes look to cost him each time, a clear round will take him close. A very strong preference is for BAILE ANRAI who was running a big race last time in the Reynoldstown when coming down, if he had stood up there he would be rated alot higher and off a fly weight today looks a steal. He was second behind Fingal Bay over hurdles beaten 6 lengths and Ian Williams was praying for him to get into this race. Best bet of the day
1st - Baile Anrai
2nd - Our Mick
3rd - Hold on Julio
4th - Noland
3:20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
HURRICANE FLY looks good to take a step towards joining the greats today when looking to land his 2nd Champion hurdle. Off the course for a while he came back with a huge bang at Leopardstown when destroying a good field in the Irish Champion Hurdle. In that field was OSCARS WELL who hated the ground that day and will be much better for the better ground today but should still come up a bit short against the favourite today. Willie Mullins gelding's main threat today should be BINOCULAR who won this race 2 years ago and couldnt run in the race last year by no fault of his own. He looked back near his best when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last time. In that race was CELESTIAL HALO who is a more than admirable horse, not the force of old but proved he still has some sparkle when winning a handicap under top weight at Newbury. This however may be too much for him. Another horse that has seen BINOCULAR'S backside this year is Christmas Hurdle runner up ROCK ON RUBY who will be more suited by 2 miles round here than the same trip at Kempton. Probably not good enough to win today but has strong each way claims. OVERTURN is one of the toughest horses in training and has beaten Nicky Henderson's horse this season in the Fighting Fifth. A break since his last run in the Christmas Hurdle when looking like he needed a break badly, a fresh horse should make a bold show but shouldnt be good enough here. A neck behind him in the International Hurdle was BRAMPOUR who has won 2 big handicaps this year and was running on under top weight last time out behind ZARKANDAR in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury. Last years unbeaten Triumph hurdle winner should give a good account of himself but may find it a bit tough at the end of the race. ZAIDPOUR is a very good horse in his own right but looks totally ground dependent and this is not what he wants today. KALANN is the other runner in the field and is a huge price for a horse that is a course and distance winner and prefers good ground. Saying that he is out of his depth here and shouldnt land a blow. HURRICANE FLY should take all the beating today.
1st - Hurricane Fly
2nd - Rock On Ruby
3rd - Binocular
4:00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase
A race dominated over the years by Enda Bolger and JP Mcmanus, as of late they havent had it their own way though since Willie Mullins has entered these races. WEDGER PARDY will take them along today and was running a big race when all but 3 of the field took the wrong course at Cheltenham in the last cross country race. That was eventually won by GARDE CHAMPETRE who could probably run round this course blindfolded he has done it that many times, he is looking a bit old in the tooth now and shouldnt reverse the form with SCOTSIRISH who was fancied in a Ryanair at one time in his career. Strongly fancied by the Irish he looks to have an outstanding chance and should take all the beating. GONE TO LUNCH tries this race for the first time in his career and will be interesting if taking to the fences, but it is a gamble however. DOUBLE DIZZY always runs his race and was 3rd here in November, on that form he is a very live contender and should not be dismissed. DREAM ALLIANCE has won a Welsh National but should struggle against these opponents today. BALTHAZAR KING has never completed a cross country race when leaving Richard Johnson red faced after taking the wrong course and taking most of the field with him last time. UNCLE JUNIOR has won over this course and distance today and is very high in the weights, even with Emmet Mullins taking 3 pounds off his back. Last years winner SIZING AUSTRALIA should be bang there at the end and he loves this course. A positive prep run over hurdles he should be very fit today and go very close. Preference today is for last years 4th horse who has been laid out for this race all year, this horse is MALJIMAR who should go very close
1st - Maljimar
2nd - Double Dizzy
3rd - Sizing Australia
4th - Garde Champetre
4:40 - OLBG David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Well this race shouldnt take too long to evaluate as nothing should get near the superstar mare QUEVEGA who has beaten everything to come at her in this race for the last 3 years without lifting an eyelid. It would be one of the major shocks of the festival were she to get beat. In theory the others are playing for the minor prize money. SHOP DJ is one coming in for each way support this morning after a season chasing. She won her prep race at Dundalk on the flat and should be in with a very strong each way chance. WHAT A CHARM won the Fred Winter last year but since then has been a bit disappointing and will need to improve to land a blow here. KENTFORD GREY LADY has gone from strength to strength this year and looks the strongest chance of a place in this field. She was behind VIOLIN DAVIS at Ascot but that wasnt a true run race and it turned into a sprint at the end. ALASI is a gorgeous mare and was just run out of a place last year and should run her race again this year after going chasing. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote in brave fashion before a 3rd at Ascot, she may struggle today when upped in class and others are preferred. but QUEVEGA is the obvious selection and should win her 4th consecutive race.
1st - Quevega
2nd - Alasi
3rd - Kentford Grey Lady
5:15 - Pulteney Land Investment Novices Handicap Chase
HUNT BALL carries 12 stone here but he doesnt actually have to give too much weight away with the bottom weight carrying only 11-4. Upped 70 pounds this year it would take a monumental effort to win today but has shown no sign of stopping his improvement yet. TRIOLO D'ALENE looks set to go off favourite and has had only one run in England which he won at Ascot, in that race he beat ACKERTAC into second place after producing a better jump at the last. Nigel Twiston Davies' charge has to be considered after Sam said it was his best chance on the first day. BLESS THE WINGS has won over course and distance and looks set to run a big race again and form could be franked by Our Mick earlier on. THAT'LL DO runs for the Champion Trainer and has to be respected, vibes from this stable are good about the horse so expect a good show from him today. VINO GRIEGO is a pound lower than he was when second at Ascot should run a good race again, but he has been out of form since his 2nd behind The Minack. BATTLE GROUP has a mind of his own and cant be trusted, if he puts his best foot forward though he could win this easily. MIC'S DELIGHT is a horse going the right way over fences and although the big step up in class he should give another good account of himself, but may find one or two too good today. Aidan Coleman has claimed CARRICKBOY as his best chance of the first day and a win at Hereford the other day boosts his credentials, five pound penalty carried today though. EDUCATED EVANS has been in flying form this year and if all is well with him should be bang there, though he is Twiston-Davies' second string. We will take a chance on ACKERTAC today though.
1st - Ackertac
2nd - Triolo D'alene
3rd - Carrickboy
4th - That'll do
I hope everyone has a fantastic cheltenham festival and lets give the bookies a bashing!
Happy Punting
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selections
Hands up if you are excited for 13th March 2012.... if your hand is still by your side there is something wrong with you. Cheltenham is nearing closer with every second and your fancies begin to strengthen, and all the talk starts up. Unfortunately my previous ante post selection for the Supreme Novices Make a Track doesn't run in the race, however i have found a very strong replacement for him.
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cinders and Ashes
The Donald McCain horse ran a stellar race in last years Champion Bumper and has been pretty lightly campaigned this season despite having four runs. Funnily his best performance may have come in his only hurdle defeat behind Broadbackbob at Ascot when losing a ridiculous amount of ground when he collided with Ted Spread in midair. After that he had no right in playing a hand in the finish yet a cool Timmy Murphy ride saw him creep closer and go down by a length to one of Nicky Henderson's class Novices in the yard. Since that run he is three out of three over hurdles including a Class one in a Supreme Novices trial at Haydock. Just taking that form as it is on paper wouldn't be enough to win the first race at the Festival by a long way. However look deeper and you see the wins have come on Soft (9 length win) and twice on heavy (2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths). Donald McCain himself has said he will appreciate faster ground which looks the sensible approach to him. All his best form has come on better ground, even on Soft ground he beat Keys (another high class Nicky Henderson hurdler) by 9 lengths. He will have had a nice break before Cheltenham and will go there fresh, you can bet your last penny that Donald McCain will have him absolutely perfect for Cheltenham and it will be no surprise to see him kick start the Festival for the McCain and Maguire team
Best Prices - 12/1 on Bodog and Coral, I backed him on Paddypower a couple of days ago and got 12/1 (now into 9/1) and it seems the price is disappearing all the while.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Folsom Blue
A very much improving horse this season after switching to the Conor O'Dwyer yard for this season. He is 3 out of 4 this season but the races he has won have been hard to not be excited by. Each win has been more and more impressive, two runs ago he beat a very strong field effortlessly when brushing aside Star Neuville by 9 1/2 lengths then winning his next race by 9 lengths with the talented Knockgraffon King 23 lengths behind in 3rd. We are yet to see how good he really is as every performance hasnt been a huge task for him, saying that there is very little chance of him winning any cheltenham festival race on the bridle, especially this one with Boston Bob looking set to line up. However a big plus is Fingal bay going for the Neptune over 2 and a half miles. When he comes out you would imagine the price of Folsom Blue would tumble in a few points. Its clear the bookmakers dont know what to make of the selection with Totesport and Betfred going 8/1 yet the majority of bookies go 14/1 and 16/1. Either that or there have been some big bets laid down. The only worry is that all his wins have come on testing ground, however i wouldn't be too concerned, after all how many times do you get good ground in Ireland.
Best prices - Skybet, Paddypower and Williamhill 16/1 (i have doubled up the two selections at 12/1 and 16/1)
hope this gives you an insight into two tricky races. Let me know your ante-post selections either on here in the comments below or on twitter @lukeyboy1325
Happy Punting
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cinders and Ashes
The Donald McCain horse ran a stellar race in last years Champion Bumper and has been pretty lightly campaigned this season despite having four runs. Funnily his best performance may have come in his only hurdle defeat behind Broadbackbob at Ascot when losing a ridiculous amount of ground when he collided with Ted Spread in midair. After that he had no right in playing a hand in the finish yet a cool Timmy Murphy ride saw him creep closer and go down by a length to one of Nicky Henderson's class Novices in the yard. Since that run he is three out of three over hurdles including a Class one in a Supreme Novices trial at Haydock. Just taking that form as it is on paper wouldn't be enough to win the first race at the Festival by a long way. However look deeper and you see the wins have come on Soft (9 length win) and twice on heavy (2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths). Donald McCain himself has said he will appreciate faster ground which looks the sensible approach to him. All his best form has come on better ground, even on Soft ground he beat Keys (another high class Nicky Henderson hurdler) by 9 lengths. He will have had a nice break before Cheltenham and will go there fresh, you can bet your last penny that Donald McCain will have him absolutely perfect for Cheltenham and it will be no surprise to see him kick start the Festival for the McCain and Maguire team
Best Prices - 12/1 on Bodog and Coral, I backed him on Paddypower a couple of days ago and got 12/1 (now into 9/1) and it seems the price is disappearing all the while.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Folsom Blue
A very much improving horse this season after switching to the Conor O'Dwyer yard for this season. He is 3 out of 4 this season but the races he has won have been hard to not be excited by. Each win has been more and more impressive, two runs ago he beat a very strong field effortlessly when brushing aside Star Neuville by 9 1/2 lengths then winning his next race by 9 lengths with the talented Knockgraffon King 23 lengths behind in 3rd. We are yet to see how good he really is as every performance hasnt been a huge task for him, saying that there is very little chance of him winning any cheltenham festival race on the bridle, especially this one with Boston Bob looking set to line up. However a big plus is Fingal bay going for the Neptune over 2 and a half miles. When he comes out you would imagine the price of Folsom Blue would tumble in a few points. Its clear the bookmakers dont know what to make of the selection with Totesport and Betfred going 8/1 yet the majority of bookies go 14/1 and 16/1. Either that or there have been some big bets laid down. The only worry is that all his wins have come on testing ground, however i wouldn't be too concerned, after all how many times do you get good ground in Ireland.
Best prices - Skybet, Paddypower and Williamhill 16/1 (i have doubled up the two selections at 12/1 and 16/1)
hope this gives you an insight into two tricky races. Let me know your ante-post selections either on here in the comments below or on twitter @lukeyboy1325
Happy Punting
Saturday, 28 January 2012
Cheltenham Festival Trials Day
12:55 - GRUMETI looked to be romping in at Newbury last time before coming down at the second last and assuming he is none the worse for it he should be the one to beat. BABY MIX burst an early Festival bubble when beating Hinterland (runs in 4:15) comprehensively. It was his first start in England that day and he could hardly have been more impressive, however this race looks more competitive and he has to give Grumeti 3 pounds. PEARL SWAN won on his first start in this country for the champion trainer at Taunton however will need to improve on that to challenge to main protagonists today. COLEBROOK won last time out at Sandown and is the most exposed of the lot today, it could be argued the form of that race isnt very strong but it was the way he won it that impressed me, off the bridle from before 2 out kept digging in and finding more, you would have to think today will be too much for him though. TANGO DE JUILLEY has run well on his 2 British starts and is his first time experiencing good ground today, although may be another that comes up just short. HOLLOW TREE is held on the form line with Hinterland but Donald Mccain's comments have been encouraging about him 'i would have thought Hollow Tree is the one they all have to beat but apparently not!'. If that isnt talking a horse up then i dont know what is. For that reason i'm willing to take Mccain's competitor who himself has done nothing wrong in his early career.
1:30 - ROALCO DE FARGES won impressively at Newbury on Hennessy day beating a big field, but failed to carry on with some improvement last time out with a poor run. ROYALE'S CHARTER unseated James Reveley last week at Ascot, although not seeming to make a mistake. His jumping is usually better and will need to be round Prestbury park, could go close though. CARPINCHO ran a nice race behind Time For Rupert and won at Fontwell last time out, he looks to be a big improver and is sure to run his race again. MISTER CHOW had won really easily at Taunton before tipping up at Southwell last time, this is a step up in class and although a well handicapped horse you would wonder if this is too much. THAT'LLDOBOY and NIGHT ALLIANCE have already competed a finish at this track this season, the latter's jumping let him down last time and the former fell at Kempton on boxing day when in contention, both best watched today. If CHARMINSTER'S form figures are anything to go by he should be second today but he is upped in class today and may be a bit high in the weights. My selection for this race is Maurice Linehan's MISTER HYDE it seems Jonjo is very careful about what horses he puts Linehan on and a big race today is very notable. The horse himself is very useful and has found his form as of late, he could just be a well handicapped horse and should go very close today.
2:05 - You couldn't help but be impressed with how AERIAL won at Ascot but is upped 12 pounds for that win and that could just find him out in a competitive race. The other Paul Nicholls horse is no stranger either in WOOLCOMBE FOLLY who is tumbling down the weights but could still be just a tad high in the weights even with Ryan Mahon's 3 pound claim, note that he is coming down to a winning weight though. CHANCE DU ROY has enjoyed himself this year winning at Newbury and coming second at Chepstow but may just want a bit more give in the ground. Paul Nicholls final runner is in the race also needs no introduction in POQUELIN and with Harry Derham's claim making life easier for him should be there thereabouts. He has had a little break to freshen him up after unseating here last time out but is undoubtedly the class horse of the race after being sent off favourite for the Ryanair twice. THE GIANT BOLSTER has been called just about every name under the sun in his career but last time put in an improved run when second to Time For Rupert. However when visiting Cheltenham his strike rate of completing isnt the best in the world. For that you would have to have doubts. Forgive ARALDUR'S last run and he should enter notebooks while TAMARINBLEU was back to winning way's last time out.
2:35 - The most exciting race on the card with a few festival bubbles to be burst no matter what. There has been a bit of hype about TIDAL BAY in the build up to this race but to say he is difficult is an understatement, he will however be staying on strongly up the hill and does enjoy himself around Cheltenham. DIAMOND HARRY has to give some weight away and we still dont really know how good he is after being taken out of the King George. However i get the feeling he is a little over rated and just short of top class (watch him romp home today). TIME FOR RUPERT has beaten 2 horses running earlier and we could get a form clue seeing how they run (carpincho and the giant bolster). Saying that though he is a very classy animal himself and absolutely loves it round Cheltenham. If he has any Gold Cup dreams then he MUST win today. MIDNIGHT CHASE is a Cheltenham specialist and is sure to come on from his last run, connections have also said he will be ridden more prominently today which is no secret how he prefers it. I on the other hand have quite a strong fancy for CAPTAIN CHRIS who could be one of the biggest bubbles to be burst today but the question is his staying which i dont have any problems with after his King George run.
3:10 - POLISKY has been disappointing and it would appear he is not the horse that was originally thought of him. FORGOTTEN GOLD ran a cracking race behind Barbatos last time out and if he can re-produce that run he should go close and ruffle a few feathers. KNIGHT PASS was mighty impressive with the way he won at Kempton and was sent off 7/1 for the champion bumper last year. He may just come up short against BROADBACKBOB here though who has done nothing wrong and beat Cinders and Ashes (albeit a tad fortunate). He has looked like one of the class novice hurdler's this year and should win this if he is going to follow up in March. BATONNIER beat Forgotten Gold last time when giving him 10 pounds, this is reversed today with Alan King's horse carrying 7 pound less. That should account for Forgotten Gold and at the same time see him go very close.
last two races to follow up
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