This blog is up earlier as im off to Cheltenham tomorrow but hopefully we can find some winners on the last day of the 2012 Festival. Id just like to say, how good was Big Bucks!!! that horse is awesome! now lets move on
1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
Won last year by Zarkandar, Paul Nicholls sends two to post today in PEARL SWAN and DODGING BULLETS. The latter has had just the one run in England but was a very smart performer on the flat in Ireland, he was thrown in at the deep end first time out over hurdles and ran a very credible race when only 1 and a half lengths behind GRUMETI. He was awarded the race in the stewards room when he faced the main Nicholls horse and Ruby Walsh's mount meets him 3 pounds better off which should account for the main Alan King runner. Robert Thornton had a tough choice between him and BALDER SUCCES who has been very impressive in his two starts at Ascot but is yet to tackle a field of this size and may not be very street wise. HIS EXCELLENCY is a huge price for a Davy Russell ridden horse however he was beaten by HISAABAAT out of sight. That race also accounts for SHADOW CATCHER, COUNTRYWIDE FLAME, ASAID and UT DE SIVOLA. If that form is true today then Dermot Weld's gelding has account for a quarter of the field. He was also a useful horse on the flat which is always a positive attribute in the Triumph Hurdle. SADLERS RISK was disappointing behind BABY MIX after having such alot of potential to fill after his hurdles debut. Tom George's gelding was impressive last time and on his hurdles debut at this course. DARROUN has beaten HISAABAAT but on softer ground and the latter will be more suited to todays conditions. Which is why he is today's selection
1st - Hisaabaat
2nd - Pearl Swan
3rd - Darroun
2:05 - Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle
TED SPREAD and MASTER OF ARTS were both strongly fancied in last week's Imperial Cup but both disappointed hugely. The latter has the excuse of a big layoff so should be fitter this time, but the former just didnt seem good enough. LOCAL HERO came back off a layoff with a defeat by Simonsig by 3 and three quarter lengths, he has the bounce factor to overcome today though. UBI ACE is having his first run for Jonjo O'neill today but Tony Mccoy is claimed by JP on ALDERWOOD for Tom Mullins, he has been struggling as of late and never got in to his last race at Leopardstown. HELL'S BAY reverts back to hurdles after not taking back to fences after his break from racing. RAYA STAR has been fantastic this year and again cant be too far away this time. SNAP TIE is a class horse but has to come off of a 882 day lay off and may just struggle. PLAN A was fourth in this last year and forgive his last run he should be considered off a 6 pounds higher mark than last year. IFYOULETMEFINISH is a horse i like alot and goes handicapping for the first time today, he has form with alot of the English Triumph hurdle field and could be well handicapped. OLOFI also has been running well this year and was unlucky when looking like the winner at Newbury, he is expected to again go very close. DESERT CRY will need the ground softer but the stable is in form. CITIZENSHIP is up 15 pounds for a win last time out and that could account for his claims but is still expected to go well. REDERA is a nice horse and i know for a fact that the Tony Martin stable fancy this horse strongly, which is why he is the selection for today's race
1st - Redera
2nd - Ifyouletmefinish
3rd - Olofi
4th - Ubi Ace
2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
SEA OF THUNDER was a very unlucky loser here in December when sprinting clear and coming down at the last. He has to be fancied today even with a few strong opponents. LOVCEN is highly thought of by the King yard and has real live each way claims at a nice price. MOUNT BENBULBEN is fancied by Gordon Elliot and was runner up to BOSTON BOB on ground that the latter absolutely hated. Willie Mullins has sent him here instead of the Neptune earlier in the week and should take all the beating here. BRINDISI BREEZE would be a nice winner but he does go better on softer ground and Lucinda Russell will have been doing a rain dance this week. ROCKY CREEK is thought fairly highly of by Paul Nicholls and comes from a pointing background where Tom Malone bought him, he is very keen on him making a very nice horse, others are preferred today however. SIVOLA DE SIVOLA always seems to run his race and cant be dismissed at a juicy price however we will go with the strong favourite BOSTON BOB who looks fairly unbeatable at this level
1st - Boston Bob
2nd - Rocky Creek
3rd - Mount Benbulben
3:20 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
This is the big one, the one everyone has been waiting for. LONG RUN vs KAUTO STAR. You can guarantee that there wont be a dry eye in the house if the veteran wins this race. But he would be an unlikely winner at this stage of his career as with his new tactics in hand he shouldnt stay the extended 3 mile trip. Last years winner will relish in the longer trip. It would seem that the value to be had here is through each way betting. The race looks to be set up by MIDNIGHT CHASE who loves this course but was out of his depth last year and looks the same this year. QUEL ESPRIT won the Irish Hennessy but the Irish 3 mile chasers look distinctly average at the moment as SYNCHRONISED beat them comfortably and in my opinion he is just a very good handicapper. BURTON PORT ran a cracker on his return last time behind the favourite but does have the bounce factor to overcome, if fully fit he should be right there and give the main two most to think about. WEIRD AL is the each way selection who is apparently catching pigeons at home and the yard are in very good form lately. LONG RUN should make it back to back Gold Cups today though.
1st - Long Run
2nd - Weird Al
3rd - Kauto Star
4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
BARBERS SHOP is by far the best horse in this field but its his mind isnt always on the job and he isnt as in Love with racing as he used to be. I really fancied JUST AMAZING in this last year but he has a layoff to overcome and is best avoided today. BLACKSTAFF would prefer soft ground for his best chance today. ON THE FRINGE was fourth in this last year and Enda Bolger says he was a baby last year and the experience will help him no end. SALSIFY will love the ground and should give his best today, a serious contender. CHAPOTURGEON is a past festival winner and has taken very nicely to hunter chasing, definitely cant rule him out without a second look. CLOUDY LANE is very fancied by the McCain yard and was a very good horse in his younger years, he is a bit old in the tooth now and he may struggle in this tougher test today. The selection is Enda Bolger's ON THE FRINGE who is looking for some respite after losing Garde Champetre earlier in the week.
1st - On The Fringe
2nd - Salsify
3rd - Chapoturgeon
4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
MAKE A TRACK was my tip for the Supreme a while back but Charlie Swan brings him here instead of that option. He has been reported to be in fine form at home and looks to be solid today. TONER D'OUDAIRIES carries the second string Gigginstown Stud colours but is a shorter price in the market. I'd prefer the first string here though. ARAB LEAGUE absolutely dotted up at Taunton but didnt beat much that day, he is well in himself but this is alot tougher today. OSCAR NOMINEE is a huge price for a Henderson and Geraghty horse this week and has to be respected. He has looked a nice prospect but one or two look better in the field, very strong each way claims. GRANDAD'S HORSE had his winning run come to an end last time but that was against Fingal Bay and wasnt beaten by much in truth. Real live each way claims here today like alot in this field. ATTAGLANCE is a recent Market Rasen winner and has a very good claimer on board today. EMPIRE LEVANT was beaten earlier in the season by Rock on Ruby but he was getting alot of weight that day. The only disappointing race he has run was last time out, so he cant be overlooked. MOLOTOF has alot of weight but there is a reason for that as he is a graded winner over hurdles at Ascot earlier in the season. MAKE A TRACK is the selection today in a hope that the faster ground brings a bit more improvement in him
1st - Make a track
2nd - Molotof
3rd - Oscar Nominee
4th - Attaglance
5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
Nicky Henderson has gone all out this year to win his fathers race. He saddles ERADICATE, KID CASSIDY, TANKS FOR THAT, ANQUETTA, FRENCH OPERA and BELLVANO. Alot of people will have different thoughts about his best chance. Personally i think KID CASSIDY is his best chance to win the race who last time out had KUMBESHWAR behind him at Doncaster and if that form holds up he should have the beating of him again. TOUBAB has a brilliant chance but he doesnt find much off the bridle and id doubt he will be winning this on the bridle. DE BOITRON has been laid out for this race by Ferdy Murphy and Lucy Alexander gets the leg up for her first ever festival winner. Bryan Cooper really fancies LUCKY WILLIAM and he has real strong each way credentials and could even be good enough to win this race. OISEAU DE NUIT is last years winner and runs off 7 pounds higher than last year. Even with that burden he should still be right up there towards the end. We will take a chance on ASTRACAD however who loves the course and Nigel Twiston Davies hasnt hid the fact that he thinks he is his best chance of a winner at the Festival. Which is why he is the selection for the last race of the 2012 festival.
1st - Astracad
2nd - Lucky William
3rd - De Boitron
4th - Kid Cassidy
I hope i have given you a few winners over this week and you have enjoyed reading my blog
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happy punting
Showing posts with label long run. Show all posts
Showing posts with label long run. Show all posts
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Friday, 17 February 2012
Newbury on Friday
A big meeting today at Newbury, unfortunately for me i cant go to the meeting today after originally having tickets to last Saturday. But well done to Newbury for staging this re-arranged card and also for granting free entry.
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
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