Aintree Day 2

Not the best of days for the blog yesterday but what a great day for racing with Big Buck's surpassing Sir Ken's record when landing his 4th Liverpool hurdle and his 17th straight win. Even though the race fell apart around him you'd find it hard to think any of the others would have got near him. It was equally as nice in that race to see Crack Away Jack back to his best on his first run for Tom George. Cloudy Lane rolled back the years to land the foxhunters despite idling on the run in, did anyone see how slick he was through the air? jumped for fun around the National Fences. But we also have some really good racing today including the return of Fingal Bay who missed Cheltenham through injury. without further ado lets crack on.

2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.

2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.

3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.

3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.

2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.

4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.

5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.

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and as always Happy Punting

Ascot 21st January

It's Saturday which means one thing, top jumps racing and Victor Chandler day at Ascot has failed to disappoint. Competitive racing throughout the card and a high class 2 Mile Chase in the Victor Chandler itself.

1:00 - James Reveley suffered a bad fall on boxing day leaving him out with concussion but has been riding out of his skin since he has been back, he gets the leg up on sure to be popular ROYALE'S CHARTER. He came second behind Menorah last time out, albeit beaten 13 lengths and but was beaten a very long way out. VINO GRIEGO ran a brilliant race two runs ago at this course when finding just the impressive The Minack too good. It seemed a bad mistake at the second last accounted for his chances. Another run like that will see him go very close. OLDRIK is one that has rekindled his old form winning his last two races very nicely and seems to be heading back in the right direction. TRIOLO D'ALENE has his first run in England today but has won a 4 year old chase at Fontainebleau by three lengths. Im willing to take a chance on ACKERTAC who hasnt sparkled over fences yet but has put in some promising runs most notably first time out when second to Micheal Flips over course and distance. Since then he has been tried over more extreme distances and a return to this distance should see him go well and 11/1 is definitely worth an each way punt.

1:30 - KAPGA DE CERISY'S defection leaves us with a field of three and makes BALDER SUCCES'S chance much easier. Just the one run under rules he won a Novice Hurdle at Plumpton in very taking fashion. CUBAN PIECE gets 4 pounds from the favourite and has won a race at Bangor, but his run last time out would suggest he wont get anywhere near Alan King's horse. It's only fair to mention the other horse in the line-up from the Sheena West yard, BRILLIANT BARCA won a juvenile hurdle at Warwick on good ground but failed to fire at all in a very hot race at chepstow last time out on heavy ground. An easy win for BALDER SUCCES looks on the cards today

2:05 - KENTFORD GREY LADY is a horse going very much in the right direction when cosily landing a competitive mares hurdle at Kempton last time out. She had VIOLIN DAVIS and CLOUDY SPIRIT well behind her that day and its very hard to see either of them two reversing that form with her today. OUR GIRL SALLEY won a class one in Ireland last time and for that she has to carry an extra 5 pounds. She however a very useful individual and is certainly towards the top. Even though she is the top rated in the race and could be even better than her mark suggests. KENTFORD GREY LADY falls under the same category and looks certain to be a better horse than her mark suggests. That's why Emma Lavelle's mare is the selection today.

2:35 - A very competitive hurdle here and co-favourites of four as I write this. One of them is SMAD PLACE who has his first run this season and would be no surprise to see him need the run. Also every time he has been upped to a class 1 it has ended in defeat, but could be a better horse this year. CICERON won nicely at Sandown last time out and its notable that Aidan Coleman isnt here to ride him who he really likes. I get the feeling that his big day this season has come but should be close. SHOREACRES was caught on the line on boxing day by Deireadh Re but it was still a very good performance and its notable that Barry Geraghty gets the leg up today. A BRIDGE TOO FAR always seems to find one too good and may be best swerved today until he shows a real winning attitude, although he has won before. PATEESE would have appreciated softer going and its hard to see him having a solid chance today. My selection is Nicky Henderson's JOSEPH LISTER who has 10 pounds taken off by very useful claimer Gary Derwin who won on him last time at Huntingdon. He didnt beat much that day but it was only his third run and will come on leaps and bounds for that.

3:10 - A race that revolves around the top two AL FEROF and FINIAN'S RAINBOW. The latter won the Desert Orchid chase last time out at Kempton in very impressive style and it looks like he will take all the beating and is my NAP of the day. With AL FEROF It's hard to see a novice winning a Victor Chandler especially with only two runs over fences under his belt. He won the Henry 8th Novice Chase at Ascot last time battling off For Non Stop who failed to frank the form next time out when beaten by Cue Card. the form from that race isnt the strongest and definitely not up to a race of this standard. FORPADYDEPLASTERER is an admirable sort and always runs his race but finds winning hard to come by. GAUVAIN doesnt look as good over 2 miles as 2 and a half and should come up short again here. WISHFULL THINKING was beaten by our selection last time out and with doubt's in the hobbs camp about him it is hard to see him reversing the form today. SOMERSBY doesnt look fast enough in a finish anymore for a 2 miler and his future surely lies over longer trips.

3:45 - My NB today is Martin Keighley's ALL FOR FREE who looked as if he was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when staying on like a train last time out at Sandown and he still gets in at a very low weight. TATENEN enjoys it round here but is very temperamental and if on a going day could win this race with ease (remember he was once sent off favourite for an Arkle). ZAYNAR falls under the same category and looked back to his best when winning last time out at this course but isnt sure to get his own way out in front today. NOLAND is dropped in trip after a valiant effort in the Lexus behind Synchronised but a return to his very best will see him take all the beating while the handicapper looks to have caught RENARD now. HECTOR'S CHOICE ran a very good race at Cheltenham last time behind Calgary Bay, a repeat of that will surely see another positive outcome. ALL FOR FREE is the very strong selection though.

4:20 - A Novice hurdle that is headed by Nicky Henderson's HADRIAN'S APPROACH who won here first time out while being very green, he will come on for that run and should take all the beating. GROVE PRIDE has run well in all his runs so far but is yet to get his head in front. THE PRETENDER is from the Paul Nicholls yard and should come on for his first run when sixth at Warwick. BE ALL MAN was behind Joseph Lister last time out and is considered especially if Joseph Lister runs well.

NAP - Finian's rainbow
NB - All for free

King George and victor chandler

First post and I shall talk about a race a while ago on boxing day, of course I refer to the King George at Kempton, the feeling of cheering home Kauto Star can not possibly be put into words as he breaks Desert Orchid's record in the race by landing his 5th win in the King George. However for me there is an underlying factor, not the terrible news of Master Minded sustaining a career threatening injury (to which I wish him a speedy recovery) but my point is about Somersby who seemingly cruised into the home straight and weakened. But it seems there is more to it than meets the eye, if you watch carefully it appears that Somersby's saddle slipped, not forward but backwards towards his hind legs. This happens just after the back straight before they turn for home. In this light we should be praising jockey Dominic Elsworth for remarkably staying aboard the horse to finish a more than respectable fourth.

Onto future racing and the victor chandler chase at ascot, I find it hard that there is any value in backing al ferof (a novice) at 5/2 after his form from the Henry 8th novice chase from sandown hasn't really sparkled with for non stop (2nd by half a length) comprehensively beaten by cue card at Newbury. If Nicky Henderson has him right the winner could well be last years Arkle runner up finians rainbow, after making a terrible mistake at Kempton in the desert orchid chase it looked his chance was all but gone, however under a more than cool Barry Geraghty and a strong late finish he got up to catch wishful thinking (who made an identical mistake at the same fence) just after the last fence with last years grand annual winner and haldon gold cup third Oiseau de nuit back just out of the placings in 3rd. On that form and no Master Minded it seems Finians Rainbow is the one to beat.