Hands up if you are excited for 13th March 2012.... if your hand is still by your side there is something wrong with you. Cheltenham is nearing closer with every second and your fancies begin to strengthen, and all the talk starts up. Unfortunately my previous ante post selection for the Supreme Novices Make a Track doesn't run in the race, however i have found a very strong replacement for him.
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cinders and Ashes
The Donald McCain horse ran a stellar race in last years Champion Bumper and has been pretty lightly campaigned this season despite having four runs. Funnily his best performance may have come in his only hurdle defeat behind Broadbackbob at Ascot when losing a ridiculous amount of ground when he collided with Ted Spread in midair. After that he had no right in playing a hand in the finish yet a cool Timmy Murphy ride saw him creep closer and go down by a length to one of Nicky Henderson's class Novices in the yard. Since that run he is three out of three over hurdles including a Class one in a Supreme Novices trial at Haydock. Just taking that form as it is on paper wouldn't be enough to win the first race at the Festival by a long way. However look deeper and you see the wins have come on Soft (9 length win) and twice on heavy (2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths). Donald McCain himself has said he will appreciate faster ground which looks the sensible approach to him. All his best form has come on better ground, even on Soft ground he beat Keys (another high class Nicky Henderson hurdler) by 9 lengths. He will have had a nice break before Cheltenham and will go there fresh, you can bet your last penny that Donald McCain will have him absolutely perfect for Cheltenham and it will be no surprise to see him kick start the Festival for the McCain and Maguire team
Best Prices - 12/1 on Bodog and Coral, I backed him on Paddypower a couple of days ago and got 12/1 (now into 9/1) and it seems the price is disappearing all the while.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Folsom Blue
A very much improving horse this season after switching to the Conor O'Dwyer yard for this season. He is 3 out of 4 this season but the races he has won have been hard to not be excited by. Each win has been more and more impressive, two runs ago he beat a very strong field effortlessly when brushing aside Star Neuville by 9 1/2 lengths then winning his next race by 9 lengths with the talented Knockgraffon King 23 lengths behind in 3rd. We are yet to see how good he really is as every performance hasnt been a huge task for him, saying that there is very little chance of him winning any cheltenham festival race on the bridle, especially this one with Boston Bob looking set to line up. However a big plus is Fingal bay going for the Neptune over 2 and a half miles. When he comes out you would imagine the price of Folsom Blue would tumble in a few points. Its clear the bookmakers dont know what to make of the selection with Totesport and Betfred going 8/1 yet the majority of bookies go 14/1 and 16/1. Either that or there have been some big bets laid down. The only worry is that all his wins have come on testing ground, however i wouldn't be too concerned, after all how many times do you get good ground in Ireland.
Best prices - Skybet, Paddypower and Williamhill 16/1 (i have doubled up the two selections at 12/1 and 16/1)
hope this gives you an insight into two tricky races. Let me know your ante-post selections either on here in the comments below or on twitter @lukeyboy1325
Happy Punting
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