Not the best of days for the blog yesterday but what a great day for racing with Big Buck's surpassing Sir Ken's record when landing his 4th Liverpool hurdle and his 17th straight win. Even though the race fell apart around him you'd find it hard to think any of the others would have got near him. It was equally as nice in that race to see Crack Away Jack back to his best on his first run for Tom George. Cloudy Lane rolled back the years to land the foxhunters despite idling on the run in, did anyone see how slick he was through the air? jumped for fun around the National Fences. But we also have some really good racing today including the return of Fingal Bay who missed Cheltenham through injury. without further ado lets crack on.
2:00 - Tangle Teezer Top Novices Hurdle
Last year i could have told you the winner of this race with Topolski going in for David Arbuthnot, but this year its a classier field with some unexposed types in here. CAPTAIN CONAN won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, but that was very slowly run and the form cant be taken literally. Since that win he seems to have gone backwards when running a stinker in Leopardstown and coming second in a fairly average race at Kelso, his future looks to be over fences. AGENT ARCHIE ran a really good race in the Supreme but in honesty his chance was gone at the start when becoming a wash with sweat. Before then he had looked really progressive and cant be ruled out today. NORTH CAPE has run well over hurdles so far and was useful on the level, today looks a bit too much for him today though. OSCARA DARA was really impressive last time out at Sandown and is still unexposed, saying that Barry Geraghty has opted for the other Henderson horse which could speak volumes. RIGHT STEP has alot of flat ability and won his first hurdle nicely at Kempton, this may just be a bit soon in his career over hurdles though and has place claims. THEATRE GUIDE has run really well over 2 miles but was beat when upped in class and trip behind Barbatos, if he can successfully step up in class today then he will be a live player but he is best watched. VULCANITE was disappointing in the Supreme when it seemed he didnt get up the hill, this track will be much more up his street and you cant rule him out quickly. Beforehand he had been contesting good contests and still running with credit but more importantly on flat tracks. DARLAN looks to have this between him with PROSPECT WELLS though, the latter ran very flat in the Tolworth Hurdle but it appeared after that he had suffered a fairly serious injury and took some time to get over it. He bounced back with a great run to come fifth in the Supreme. The Former was the runner up in the Supreme and ran an absolute cracker, it could just be that this race is too much for him and he will struggle today. So on that and on this flat track we will side with Paul Nicholls' PROSPECT WELLS with VULCANITE behind him.
2:30 - John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase
Only a small field for this one but definitely one that packs a punch, CHAMPION COURT ran an awesome race behind Sir Des Champs in the Jewson and he never seems to turn in a bad effort. He did have a very hard race that day and this could pose as a step too much for this season, if proved wrong though he will turn in another good run. JOIN TOGETHER was really fancied by connections in the RSA but he never really got going that day and will need to improve markedly on that performance. Whether there were excuses that day im not sure but he is best watched today. SOLIX was sixth in the Jewson but it appears that he just doesnt show enough respect to his fences, saying that he clearly has an engine and if jumping woes are sorted out he could be a bit of a surprise winner today. It is a risk though as he hasnt jumped with fluency on any of his chases so far. YES TOM is a good horse but in his own level and today isnt that, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him figure among the main characters today. SILVINIACO CONTI is the selection today after swerving Cheltenham to come here. He was one of the Nicholls string that was coughing and his last run at Ascot suggests that as he folded tamely coming up to two out. All is well with him today though and more importantly he is a fresh horse who has been aimed at this. Paul Nicholls to have a double after the first two.
3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Surprisingly FINIAN'S RAINBOW has been drifting this morning after his Cheltenham exploits when landing the Champion chase. The trip shouldnt be a worry as he won over a furlong shorter at Ascot in a novice hurdle, there is nothing to suggest that he wont turn in a usual good run. WISHFULL THINKING and KAUTO STONE both fell in the Champion Chase so its hard to determine how well they would have fared that day. They will be fresher than their opponents today and as long as their falls havent left anything in their heads they should both run up to scratch. KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER'S times have probably been and gone at the top level and with past injuries possibly taking its toll on them they could be vulnerable today, a return to their best would put them right on the scene though. One that isnt going backwards though is the fantastic ALBERTAS RUN who was only just denied his third Ryanair on the bounce at the Festival and has run well here before after Cheltenham. He hasnt had the busiest year by design and should be fighting fit today, its hard to see him out of the frame but he may struggle to get his head in front today. PURE FAITH ran a race almost too good to be true in the Old Roan here earlier in the season but since then he hasnt shown alot and is easily dismissed. With all that said we are taking a bit of a chance on POQUELIN who was withdrawn down at the start at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be very well at home and it may be a blessing in disguise that he was unable to take part in the Ryanair as now he comes here a fresh horse and one with a huge chance. Also i have just found out that PaddyPower are doing one of their famous money back guarantees, if Finian's Rainbow wins today they will refund all losing bets, cant say fairer than that.
3:40 - John Smiths Topham Chase
A fairly classy renewal of the Topham looking at it and as always its super easy to find the winner.... not. But lets give it a go, TARTAK had lost his way slightly but last time ran a belter at Cheltenham off this mark hinting at a revival, it will take a mighty effort to win this off top weight today though. Willie Mullins has laid out APT APPROACH for the race but looking through his form the only time he encountered good ground he has fallen. It does look as if he excels in softer ground and is impossible to back with any confidence today. FISTRAL BEACH won well first time out this year but since then has been disappointing, if he puts his best foot forward today he could take all the beating. GIORGIO QUERCUS has been tried at the highest level in his time but came up a bit short each time, since reverting back to handicaps he has been a different horse, however he never turned up at Cheltenham last time and will need to bounce back majorly to land this. ALWAYS WAINING needs no introduction over these fences as he practically owns the National Fences, his whole year is basically aimed at today as he attempts to land his 3rd Successive Topham, this year will be much harder for him though and it will be a good effort to win this. FRANKIE FIGG is another that comes into his own over the National fences but lately has been badly out of sorts, this race could bring a bit of a revival in him with Ruby on board. There has been alot of money for GONEBEYONDRECALL who ran well on this course last year, but to me he will have to prove it wasnt a fluke as he isnt the most consistent type. BAI ZHU is my each way bet for the day over these fences, anyone that has seen him jump before will know that he is perfect at most of his fences and looks ideal to jump round here, he has been known to stop fairly quickly though but has been dropping down the weights after his Novice efforts. TRIANGULAR has been laid out for this race and has been favourite for some time now, i have to admit i dont know much about him but taking a horse with such little experience round this course is never a good idea so on that basis he is avoided. AIMIGAYLE is such a tough mare but on her only effort over these fences she didnt get further than the second fence, she needs to prove a love for the fences before i could think about putting money on her. FABALU is a horse that i have always avoided but lately he has been an improved horse, whether putting him over these fences is the best move im not sure but he could be a serious player. The best chance of a winner looks to be Nigel Twiston-davies' LITTLE JOSH who has been slipping down the weights and is now a pound lower than he was when winning the PaddyPower and he looks perfect to jump round these fences. It would surprise me if he didnt take to these fences today.
2:00 - John Smiths Sefton Novices Hurdle
Quite a few horses in here but in truth not alot have much of a chance, the reason for that being the return of Phillip Hobbs' FINGAL BAY who was forced to miss Cheltenham through injury and comes to Aintree looking to make amends for that. The interesting horse in the field is COTTON MILL who has he stood up at Cheltenham could have beaten Simonsig and he would be a much shorter price here today. Saying that he maybe cant be trusted after what he did at Cheltenham and also the favourite today destroyed Simonsig at Sandown. FORGOTTEN GOLD has put in two good efforts at Cheltenham but skipped the festival to come here. Aintree should be a track that suits him alot more than Cheltenham and is a cracking each way bet this afternoon. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW is one that i have followed for a while and if he didnt run at Fontwell when something was clearly wrong with him he wouldnt be the price he is today. But he has developed a liking for Ffos Las and possibly softer ground. This is my only worry about his chances that the ground isnt soft enough for him, he deserves his chance at this level though and has live place claims. LOVCEN was fourth at Cheltenham but in my mind was disappointing as he never travelled with any fluency and was off the bridle at an early stage. Personally i couldnt have him on my mind for today's race. KNOCK A HAND beat GULLINBURSTI in a thriller at Newbury but realistically both would have to improve quite a bit to make their presence felt today. I cant see anything but FINGAL BAY winning today as long as everything is well after his little setback. FORGOTTEN GOLD could be the each way value.
4:50 - John Smiths Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle
ATTAGLANCE tops the weights today and has been in really good form as of late landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham under todays pilot. He could just be a tad high in the weights now but it would be no surprise to see a good effort turned in. ALL THE ACES disappointed last time when a short priced favourite today is his first handicap and he could potentially bolt up today on some of his novice form, but best watched today. My patience has all but run out with ACT OF KALANISI after being fancied for a couple of races this season and showing fairly little, in his ideal conditions he would enjoy a bit softer ground so is ignored today. BOURNE didnt run too badly at Cheltenham and Donald McCain has said he still feels he is well handicapped so shouldnt be ignored today, i just feel that today his best hopes are for a place. CAPE DUTCH found a one pound higher mark too much at Cheltenham and that should be no different today. SKI SUNDAY has lost his way lately and unseated his rider on the flat at Cheltenham, until he sparks a revival you'd be a brave person to back him. It would be no surprise to see LAVA LAMP mixing it at the last after two very nice wins at Ffos Las but this is much harder than he has contested before and a place could be his best hope. I couldnt have TOUR D'ARGENT on my mind after his hereford win and a fairer price would be something more like 33/1 about him never mind single figures. IT'S A GIMME will need to step up on what he has shown so far but he looks like the ideal horse to do just that for Tony McCoy, the price could just be a bit skinny though. Preference today goes to ALL THE ACES but it is a very tentative choice, but its a cracking each way price.
5:25 - John Smiths Mares' Standard NH Flat Race
Robert Thornton hasnt been quiet about the chances of CALL ME A STAR who won a very competitive Sandown bumper last time on Imperial Cup day. She could take all the beating but there may just be a few come out of the woodwork to challenge her. HIDDEN LITE has a very interesting Jockey booking in Ruby Walsh, she won her only race on very testing conditions and without inside information you couldnt back her today. FLEMENTIME won nicely at Plumpton and if she progresses she will go close today and not one to rule out. ELEVEN FIFTY NINE was third at Sandown but is one that looks fairly exposed now and may again have to settle for minor prize money. DOYLY CARTE has come in for some money this morning and could be a very interesting runner if improving again for the McCain yard again. We are going for UMADACHAR today who ran a much improved race at Sandown when 2nd to the favourite at fancy odds, she just gave the impression that she was green that day and will have benefited greatly from that run. Connections still think she could be something special and she gets the nod again.
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Showing posts with label liverpool. Show all posts
Showing posts with label liverpool. Show all posts
Friday, 13 April 2012
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Day 1 Aintree Festival
Aintree is here after what has seemed an eternity since Cheltenham, and a fairly decent card to start of the Grand National meeting as well. I was glad last night that i chose to stay up to watch the Stanley Cup playoffs especially going to bed when it was light outside after my Vancouver Canucks lost the first game 4-2. But hey 6 more games to go and id still fancy our chances of going through.
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
2:00 - Aintree Hurdle
As always its a top 3 mile hurdle in England and the race revolves around the unbelievable BIG BUCK'S who goes for his 17th straight career win. He needs no introduction and it would appear the only thing that can beat him today is himself. A few horses of notable each way value but the one that is closest to him in the betting is World Hurdle third SMAD PLACE for Robert Thornton. He has been a very admirable horse this year after opening up by romping home in a big handicap hurdle at Ascot then finishing second to Bourne the time after. There is no real reason that he should get closer to big bucks today though. WON IN THE DARK has run well in Champion hurdles before but as of late has found winning a tough thing to do in much lower grades than this and cant be fancied. ACROSS THE BAY and CRACK AWAY JACK look well out of their depth here. TIDAL BAY could be a bit of each way value if he is in the right frame of mind today but it is a bit of a gamble on which horse will turn up. RESTLESS HARRY has been consistent this year but found life tough last time out and has been on the go for a while now, he is swerved today. Each way preference is for Paul Nicholls' second string POUNGACH who was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Oscar Whisky but this is over a longer trip and seeing as there is no reason he wont stay should be fighting for minor honours.
2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O hurdle
Alot of horses here who contested the Triumph hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham, including eventual winner COUNTRYWIDE FLAME who has been reported to be in good health since his win, my only worry is that he has been on the go for a long time this season and could be vulnerable to less exposed types. Nicky Henderson swerved the Triumph with LYVIUS after losing at Newbury and to me he looks a bit short of the top. Saying that he will be fresh and could well be the each way value of the race on his step up in grade. GRUMETI looks to go off the favourite for the race after going off favourite at Cheltenham when 3rd. He is another that this race may just be one run too much for and others are preferred. HINTERLAND has two engagements at Cheltenham but ended up not taking either of them in preference to come here fit, there has been a little bit of market support for him this morning. He has looked fairly vulnerable at times this year and can be taken on. SADLERS RISK hasnt fulfilled the potential he promised in his first run when destroying the field in a novice hurdle. Since then he has been upped in class and has been found out it would seem, Aintree will be more up his street than Cheltenham though and should go closer today. GOTTANY O'S looked a really nice prospect when smashing Lyvius at Newbury but was since beaten at very short odds at Hexham, forgive the last run and he should be bang there for a stable in great form this season. Preference today however is for DODGING BULLETS who ran a brilliant race in the Triumph but may have hit the front too early there when stopping fairly quickly after the last when looking like a winner. If Noel Fehily can hold on to him then he should take all the beating after running such a good race at Kempton first up over hurdles.
3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase
Today at Aintree could possibly see the end of a fairytale season for the most progressive chaser arguably ever in HUNT BALL who has had an unbelievable season be raised over 80 pounds in the handicap. I would say this race may be too early for him after a hard season but every time i say something against him he makes me look silly. But he should fine it tough today and others are preferred. Tony Mccoy hasnt been out of the placings when riding BURTON PORT who ran a cracker in the Gold Cup last time out, i just feel that for a fragile horse this may be too quick after Cheltenham for him. RIVERSIDE THEATRE is stepped up in trip but had a tough race at Cheltenham and others are fancied ahead of Barry Geraghty's choice. NACARAT is laid out for this race every year and finally got his head in front last year, the one thing he has over most of these is freshness after all but 3 ran at Cheltenham. He should again go well but may struggle to get his head in front. MEDERMIT looks like a bridesmaid but it stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in my opinion this isnt the right race to step him up in trip after his Ryanair exploits, but who am i to question Alan King. He has place claims are best. CARRUTHERS and MASTER OF THE HALL are useful on their day but just look a bit short in this class so have to be opposed like last years third FOLLOW THE PLAN. DIAMOND HARRY is becoming frustrating to follow and he is another that looks a bit short at the top, but there is definitely a world of talent there and its just a case of finding the key with him. He is best watched at the moment. We are siding with WHAT A FRIEND today which may be a silly thing to say as he always looks a winner then doesnt go through with it. But you forget that he is really going to Aintree a fresh horse after falling at the second fence. Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about his chances saying he has a serious serious chance, it would appear they fancy that today is his day. Before I end this race id just like to say how great it would be for Hunt Ball to win just to see Anthony Knott's celebration in the parade ring.
3:40 - John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase
Here is the first lottery at the Aintree festival, if you can find the winner of this then good luck to you. CLOUDY LANE was favourite for the National a few years back and he has got round these fences before but he does need an extreme distance nowadays and will be staying on at the end of the day. As long as he can jump while in top gear he should be thereabouts. One that will have no problem with the pace is past winner SILVER ADONIS who seems to save his best for these fences and is coming somewhat of an Aintree Specialist and he seemed in good health last time out at Fakenham when winning. More than capable jockey on board helps. TEDDY'S REFLECTION is a huge price for a horse with alot of talent. If he can take to the National fences then i cant see any possible reason why he wouldnt be close up as everything is in his in favour. THE POLOMOCHE was a once very good horse and has showed this year he still has plenty of love for the game winning 2 of his last three but there may be one or two better in this field. BOXER GEORG ran a blinder in this race last year to come second and he showed a genuine love for the course, another performance like that will put him right in the mix and its hard to see him too far out of it. ISLAND LIFE has been well in himself after winning his last two and definitely deserves his place in the field today and also isnt without a chance after running in some good races over the years. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT could make his price look silly as in his younger years he was grade one winner in Ireland. An even bigger tick in his box is the fact that he has made is round the National fences before on more than one occasion. GWANAKO won the Topham as a 5 year old which has to be respected and is arguably the one they all have to beat today with the talented James Cowley on board. But he has disgraced himself before over these fences when sending Sam Thomas 20 foot into the air at the Chair. I think he is more than beatable and the one im taking him on with is MY WAY DE SOLZEN who is an ex Cheltenham festival winner. He is a sound enough jumper and the distance isnt a problem for him, I don't see why the fences should pose a threat to him and as long as he can avoid the other 25 in the field he should have a fantastic chance of coming home in front.
the last three races will follow up here shortly
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