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Thursday, 15 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival Day 3

Day 2 seemed to be a bit more controversial than we had all thought with Wishfull Thinking falling at the 3rd, Sizing Europe and Finian's Rainbow settled down to fight it out and the defending champion looked set to go back to back turning for home. Can any more favourites seriously get beat? after all it is Big Bucks, so lets crack on with day 3.

1:30 - Jewson Novices Chase
The Alternative race for Donald McCain's PEDDLERS CROSS who looks to have made the right move in coming to this race after Sprinter Sacre's demolition job. The opposite way round and further trip than Kempton looks set to suit him down to the ground. He wont have it all his own way with the Scilly Isles winner FOR NON STOP in the field, chasing does look his game and he is a very genuine horse that always runs his race. He looks assured to put in another good effort today and had MICHEAL FLIPS 2 lengths behind him at Newbury. Andrew Turnell's horse has been a much better novice chaser than he was a hurdler and has run his socks off alot of times this season, this is a big step up in class today though. CHAMPION COURT won at this course on New Years Day and looked a very good prospect on that form, a reproduction of that wont put him two far away today. Behind him on that occasion was SOLIX who comes from a stable bang in form after dominating the card yesterday. He looks like a very good horse but shows a distinct lack of respect for the fences, better jumping will be needed to win this. SIR DES CHAMPS is a very fancied Irish runner and is unbeaten including winning the Martin Pipe conditional race last year and must have an outstanding chance of continuing his run. We are going to side with the impressive CRISTAL BONUS today though who is unbeaten over fences and since joining the Paul Nicholls stable. Lets hope these colours get a bit further than they did in the Champion Chase yesterday.

1st - Cristal Bonus
2nd - For Non Stop
3rd - Sir Des Champs

2:05 - Pertemps Final
A big field for the Pertemps this year and out of respect we have to start with the dual winner BUENA VISTA who has Tom Bellamy take off 10 pounds, he ran a much better race than his 9th place last time suggests. Donald McCain has had two winners this week and he saddles ACROSS THE BAY who cant be ruled out easily, he has been running well this year without reward and was completely out of his depth last time against Big Bucks. Big chance today. CAPE TRIBULATION is fancied today and not too long ago was considered a live Champion Hurdle contender. A return to his best puts him bang on the scene. There has been a bit of money for SERGENT GUIB'S this morning and has one of the strongest chances in the field justifying his second favourite tag. He is unexposed and inexperience comes with that which wont help in a field like this. OUR FATHER is the favourite and has been laid out for this race, he was very impressive when winning at Ascot under an ultra cool Timmy Murphy. He had an entry for the World Hurdle but was nothing more than an outside chance. RESTLESS HARRY has the burden of a top weight but is a very good horse, others are preferred today though. ASHKAZAR is a very good horse on his day but can be very in and out, it is a gamble what horse will turn up. PETTIFOUR came from a huge layoff to go down by a small distance at this track behind Dorset Square. A run like that is sure to hold him in good order. Barry Geraghty rides for Jonjo aboard THEHILLOFUISNEACH who has been in flying form this season and the ground may have been the cause for his last run. A chance today if he isnt too high in the handicap. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX beat KAYF ARAMIS here in January. The latter is better off today and both are capable of getting competitive. If RICK handles the faster ground he will have one of the leading chances after being 14 lengths behind Mourad on his last run. We will give CANTLOW another chance today though, he has been dropping down the weights but has run some very good races this year.

1st - Cantlow
2nd - Rick
3rd - Pettifour
4th - Houblon Des Obeaux

2:40 - Ryanair Chase
SOMERSBY has come in for notable market support and also even stronger on the exchanges today, he is also my bet of the week and his form took a huge boost yesterday with Finian's Rainbow now champion chaser. He wont have things his own way though with RIVERSIDE THEATRE a good favourite today and I cant have people who say he wont enjoy Cheltenham after flying up the hill in the Arkle in his only appearance at the track, he was 8 lengths behind Sizing Europe that day. But he is an improved horse now and 2 and a half miles is much more his distance. NOBLE PRINCE won the Jewson last year and has made a good step up to be a second season chaser but has found winning hard to come by. Another renowned runner up is FORPADYDEPLASTERER but isnt the horse he used to be, and there are one or two better today. RUBI LIGHT is another with a huge chance today but would be alot better on softer ground, saying that he did run a stellar race in this last year at fancy odds. I think Alan King chose the right option in sending MEDERMIT here instead of the Gold Cup, but i think he is just a tad short of being top class but has live place credentials. ALBERTAS RUN has won the last two renewals of this contest and is an admirable horse, he has won his only start this season at Aintree, but that wasnt a strong race really, however the festival brings him alive with 3 festival wins to his name. CAPTAIN CHRIS disgraced himself a little last time in the Argento but before that ran a brilliant race to come third in the King George, if he runs how we know he can then he has a live shout. SOMERSBY will take all the beating today though.

1st - Somersby
2nd - Riverside Theatre
3rd - Medermit

3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Usually with the name BIG BUCKS in a race it would seem a formality but the name of OSCAR WHISKY makes you second glance. The latter has unconfirmed stamina doubts but his 2 and a half mile form suggests he should have no problem in getting the extra trip. Whether he has the class to beat the Paul Nicholls' horse is a big worry though. MOURAD was third in this last year and bounced back to his best last time out, he has the potential to make his tag of 22/1 look very silly for each way punters. VOLER LA VEDETTE is a gorgeous mare but realistically is only going for the places today much like the others in the field. THOUSAND STARS won the Morgiana hurdle earlier in the year but last time didnt jump like he can last time and that cost him 2nd place as he wouldnt have got near Hurricane Fly. Another that has real live place claims is 2011 Neptune third SO YOUNG who has been running well this year and it would be no surprise to see him make a really good impression of himself today. My each way preference is for DYNASTE today though after looking to have BIG BUCKS measure for a few strides turning in last time but then having no answer when he quickened. David Pipe will have him spot on for this race today.

1st - Big Bucks
2nd - Dynaste
3rd - Oscar Whisky

4:00 - Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase
NOTUS DE LA TOUR could have gone for the Jewson but opted for this handicap today, his best run to date was over fences was his first run in Ireland when 2nd behind Blackstairmountain but this is his first handicap and whether he is good enough is in the air, he should make a good account of himself. This looks a hard race to win off top weight for TARTAK and even though CRACK AWAY JACK has some fancy form he may struggle today. HECTORS CHOICE looked to have Nacarat beat at Kempton when they swung for home but quickly emptied out over 3 miles, a return to this trip puts him in the mix. SALUT FLO'S second to Prince de beauchene looks very smart now and he must have a great chance. DIVERS will be at peak fitness for this race and Tony Mccoy on board isnt exactly a negative, but he is without a winner this week and may be worth avoiding. THE COCKNEY MACKEM has been running well this year but doesnt find much off the bridle, like last time when he was ran into the ground at Doncaster by Quentin Collonges. MAD MOOSE has a habit of making a mistake that costs him a race and round Cheltenham that really cant be done. HOLMWOOD LEGEND is already a festival winner in this race and the trainer has had a winner this week already. If Tom Taafe's FINGER ONTHE PULSE runs to his best then he will give his claimer a huge ride round Cheltenham and as anyone who reads this blog knows, im a huge Maurice Linehan fan. NICEONEFRANKIE has a fantastic chance and will be my choice today, he has improved no end this year and is due to be raised 3 pounds in the future. His win at Newbury suggests he still has a bit in hand so we will take our chance on him.

1st - Niceonefrankie
2nd - Notus De La Tour
3rd - Hector's Choice
4th - Salut Flo

4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
MOSTLY BOB is a course winner and caught the eye that day but he is prone to making a few mistakes through his races and he would be a tentative selection. However i do fancy him to run well. FAASEL loves this race and found the winning way last time after a long losing streak. He has been running well for a long time though and should make a good account of himself again. ADAMS ISLAND has improved no end since moving to Paul Nolan's stable but may find this test a bit too much, and is also prone to the odd mistake during a race. BENBANE HEAD is a course and distance winner although it is hard to see him getting competitive today. MIDNIGHT APPEAL won last time up at Sandown and is a very strong leading chance after being ultra consistent this year. YOUR BUSY has a live outside chance and has been second here but looked like he needed further that time, this is a very live outsider. BE THERE IN FIVE was 3rd in the 4 miler last year but since then hasnt completed a race, he must show alot more to even think about getting competitive. EXMOOR RANGER won at Ascot earlier in the year but never runs two races the same and since then has fallen and come fifth, if he is having a going day then he could be a lead contender. Its hard to trust him though. SUNNYHILLBOY has been backed in this morning but he usually struggles in these big handicaps, and will place at best. Nina Carberry rides START ME UP who won a good ground bumper at Cheltenham in 2009, his recent form will give him a chance today but others are preferred, the jockey is a positive booking. The selection today is SWING BILL who won the amateur riders event in November at this track after making an awful mistake on the second circuit. He is usually a sound enough jumper and we take a chance on the good ground to bring a win from him.

1st - Swing Bill
2nd - Midnight Appeal
3rd - Your Busy
4th - Faasel

bet of the day - cristal bonus and somersby double
Happy Punting

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