Champion Hurdle 2013 Preview

Stan James Champion Hurdle - Grandouet

The Champion Hurdle this year has some odd factors to it, yet promises to be the best race of the festival potentially. The first odd factor is Cotton Mill's gamble after being made Pricewise today, he is now best price 25/1. Personally 100/1 wouldnt interest me but opinions are there to be made wrong.

The other main factor is that Darlan is 7/2. Im not disrespecting his chance but after his Christmas hurdle romp he shortened significantly. Obviously to the eye he was very impressive that day, however re-watch the race and they went an absolute crawl throughout, ending in a sprint finish. Now take a look at the horses he beat, Cinders and Ashes, Raya Star, Dodging Bullets, countrywide flame and the returning Punjabi. Now, all of them will get further without a doubt, maybe with the exception of Punjabi who is back from injury. But on that day it was just a case of, who is the fastest horse? Without a doubt that is Darlan. Rock on Ruby probably isnt a 2 miler round Kempton, he was second in that race last season. He then won the Champion, mainly because 2 miles round Cheltenham takes more stamina than speed, especially late on. That brings the others well into the mix.

Hurricane Fly is also 7/2 after his 2 wins in Ireland, one of which he was left all alone at the last when the late Go Native fell when challenging. Last time out however was the Hurricane Fly we know and love, yet again though, how many Champion Hurdle class horses did he beat? The answer is a resounding, none. Not taking anything from the style of his win, he will probably need more come Cheltenham time, and could easily take the race like in 2011.

The strongest form of the race comes from the International hurdle, Zarkandar was getting 4 pounds from Rock on Ruby and Grandouet. The former being the returning reigning Champion Hurdler, and the latter making his long awaited reappearance. Even though the result went Zarkandars way, the other two looked to need it badly. Grandouet came out of the race well after a fantastic effort going down by two lengths. Obviously in the Champion they will both be 4 pounds better off and Nicky Henderson's inmate should reverse the placings.

Grandouet is the Ante Post Selection, i'm praying he stays fit this year after last year picking up an annoying niggle just before Cheltenham. That meant he couldnt take part in the race, it could well be a blessing in disguise however meaning he is fresh and had another year to mature. That last point could be vital as he was a very slow maturing horse that only really came into himself last year. (7/1)

Sue Smith Day!!

For those of you who read my blog yesterday may have realised that one i was very keen on is running today, that horse is BE MY LIGHT. Last night you could have got 5/1 best price but this morning you will get no better than 7/2 and its shortening the whole time. He has been stepped up in distance only an extended furlong however but this is a weaker race than the one at Newbury the last day. Diarmuid O'Regan takes the ride again today and claims a valuable 10 pounds. Good ground wont be a problem for him today and the course should be right up his street.

One that i may have mentioned before is a Sue Smith horse called PINEROLO who i have waited for about 3 months to see him again. Last time out was his first time in a handicap and was beaten 14 lengths running on at the end of the day. That day in my opinion wasnt Henry Oliver's finest hour and Shane Byrne gets the leg up today which also allows him to take off 3 pounds thanks to his allowance. He may also be one for the future as he is a gigantic horse who will jump a fence. The two i have mentioned so far i have in a double and singles.

Sue Smith takes 6 runners to Carlisle today and it could just be she is treating today like her Saturday where she sends the best she has out. Its interesting as she rarely takes more than 2 to a midweek meeting if that, to take 6 to one meeting very much catches the attention. I have made a lucky 15 out of 4 of her horses, the bet is as follows.

Dartford Warbler - Hasnt shown much so far but has been running against some good horses in the names of Make a Track, Cotton Mill and Absinthe. Last time out behind Absinthe was definitely his best run, only beaten 16 lengths on that day. Another reason for believing there will be more to come first time in a Handicap is the fact that he is a half brother to Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby, if he is half as good as him then he will win this at a canter. Interesting runner.

Whiskey Ridge - One of Sue's more fancied runners today and he has come on leaps and bounds in his last two runs hitting the crossbar and everything around it. The ground today will be right up his street today, so will the distance as he is stepped up a furlong today and that looks as if it will suit after staying on last time but running out of time. One of Sue's better chances today.

Pinerolo - I think i have said enough about this horse above, probably the best chance of a winner today.

Twice Lucky - Probably the dodgiest one in the lucky 15 as he is yet to win a race but has run some good races. He seems to love the better ground whenever he gets on it which is what we are dealing with today. This looks a golden opportunity for him to get off the mark, after last time he was running a brilliant race when unseating his jockey 5 from home. Fantastic opportunity to get off the mark today.

hopefully there are some winners amongst them today.

NAP - Pinerolo
NB - Be My Light