Ladbrokes St Leger - Ante Post

Good morning/afternoon everyone, an untimely midweek blog today as we preview the Ladbrokes St Leger which is only a month away.

We don't have a Classic winner in the field however it promises to be a competitive event with Kingston Hill heading the market who chased home Australia in the Derby. He is joined by the unexposed types of Kings Fete, Elite Army and Granddukeoftuscany as well as the Royal Ascot winner Hartnell and the Epsom Derby third, Romsdal.

Kingston Hill

We may not have a Classic winner in the race but we do have Kingston Hill who chased home Australia at Epsom when making him pull out all the stops. As a two year old Roger Varian's colt went through the whole season unbeaten culminating with a success at Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy, but it was always apparent that he would excel over further. With that in mind he ran a fantastic race in the 2000 Guineas to finish five lengths behind the winner Night Of Thunder and just under four and a half lengths behind Australia. He managed to close that gap to one and a quarter lengths at Epsom before running on into fourth off the

Kingston Hill winning the Racing Post Trophy

back of a slow pace in the Coral Eclipse at Sandown.

For a while connections were skeptical about whether to take their chances in this race, but an entry in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury would suggest he may be on course for the final Classic of the year. There are a few doubts that come with Kingston Hill though and the main one in the past has been the state of the ground. Despite handling a faster surface at Epsom in the Derby and at Sandown in the Coral Eclipse he does seem to be more at home on more testing ground. That shouldn't be too much of a problem after his last two efforts, and the fact that this race looks decidedly weaker than them two events means he comes into the race with a very strong chance.

Elite Army

Godolphin have pinned their main hopes onto Elite Army who burst onto the scene when winning impressively at Royal Ascot, defying a handicap mark of 94 in doing so. He got the better of Windshear that day after finding trouble in running when held in by the eventual runner up, but when getting out into the open showed a smart turn of foot. The last mentioned point may just be his downfall however as he doesn't look a horse with emphasis on stamina, despite not stopping at the end of his races over a shorter distance. So why are there doubts about his stamina? He doesn't appear to have the mentality of a stayer as he has been very keen in the early part of his races and continued to fight his jockey throughout the whole race.

Elite Army beating Windshear at Royal Ascot

With all that kept in mind he may just be a horse that needs a bit more time to mature and it would be interesting to see if Saeed Bin Suroor reaches for the 'trendy' hood. But after a couple of setbacks since Ascot and with no races planned for him between now and the day, he may just be found wanting against more experienced opponents, but he shouldn't fall short on ability.

Kings Fete

There is no secret that I am a big fan of Kings Fete who like Elite Army has been lightly raced in his still young career after finding only Double Bluff too strong at Goodwood. However there was more than meets the eye that day as Kings Fete had to make up 20 lengths from last to first and beat all bar one who was vastly more experienced than him. The form of that race wouldn't be good enough to win a Classic, however he was ridden differently when held up which didn't look to suit him in a first time hood. Despite not winning he took a huge step forward at Goodwood in the preliminaries after behaving atrociously at York when bolting on the way to post. This could just be down to him maturing each time he races as is the way with many Sir Michael Stoute inmates such as Telescope and Sea Moon.

Kings Fete in action at Sandown

Like Kingston Hill, connections have given Kings Fete an entry into the Geoffrey Freer Stakes as well as the Great Voltigeur which is likely the more preferred target at York. With more improvement to come from a horse still rated under 100 at the time of writing he must hold a very strong chance at a big price.

Hartnell

Unlike many others in the field, Hartnell has already proved his stamina when winning the Queens Vase (2 miles) and the Bahrain Trophy (1m 5f) so he has an ideal profile for the St Leger. The path he has taken is a similar one to Leading Light who also won the Queens Vase last year on his way to winning the St Leger for Ballydoyle.

Hartnell however was seen as more of a Derby horse at the start of the year before he tasted defeat in both of the trial races he contested at Epsom and Lingfield. He has since rewarded connections who kept their faith in him by winning twice in as many attempts when stepped up to trips in excess of 12 furlongs. The form of those races is my worry with Century and Marzocco both proving disappointments after both being aimed at the top early on in their career.

Hartnell winning the Bahrain Trophy

With ground not proving an issue at either extreme and stamina in abundance, we can safely give Hartnell a strong chance but he may come up a bit short for win purposes.


Granddukeoftuscany

Aidan O'Brien and his son Joseph won this race last year with Leading Light, but the profiles between the two are vastly different as Granddukeoftuscany comes here with only a Maiden victory under his belt, much like Foundry who was fifth in this last year. He was unfancied on debut at the Curragh but stayed on from an impossible position in nice style to take sixth and showing clear ability. He confirmed that promise when winning very easily second time out at Tipperary by 19 lengths with a horse now rated in the high 70s back in second. Like a few in this field that form wouldn't be good enough to win this but in the same breath, he wouldn't have to improve much and an entry in the Great Voltigeur is interesting.

On the whole he remains an intriguing entry but it is hard to tell how good he really is until he tested in higher company, but he does fall under the exciting category.

Eagle Top

Connections of Eagle Top have stressed that it is unlikely that he will take his chance in the St Leger however if he did turn up then he would definitely be my selection. He was last seen taking on his elders in the King George when a staying on fifth at Ascot behind Taghrooda, Telescope and Trading Leather.

Personally he is at the top of my list for four year olds to follow next season after seeing him up close at Ascot as he still looks a bit weak behind the saddle. With plenty of growing left to do and the shame that he is unlikely to turn up here we will swiftly breeze over Eagle Top... Until next year anyway.

Romsdal

Romsdal will likely be the main hope for John Gosden and William Buick who have won this race twice in the last four years with Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel. However William Buick has only ridden Romsdal once in five of his outings when second to Orchestra at Chester, with Richard Hughes riding him on the last two occasions.

After the Derby, Romsdal was installed as the favourite for this race but after leaving a lot to be desired in the King George he has been drifting to big prices. In fairness a run like that was to be expected after getting outpaced late on in the Derby, but there is no shame in lacking speed against Australia and Kingston Hill. On that form he would be in with a big chance but does have to leave that poor performance behind from last time out.

Romsdal

As mentioned before, he got outpaced in the Derby but it looks as if stamina will be his strong suit especially as his Sire (Halling) has bred horses like Deep Purple who once ran in a National and the Dam being by Singspiel. With all that taken into account we can forgive Romsdal his poor run in the King George and for me it is hard to see him being out of the first three.

Snow Sky

Sir Michael Stoute won this with Conduit back in 2008 and could well be double handed here with Kings Fete and Snow Sky, who is coming here off the back of a win in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. For me he didn't handle the course that day and proved that when running around late on in the day, but there is also a chance that he was getting tired late on which would pose worries about his stamina.

He beat Windshear that day who was potentially unlucky in running, but before that was found out in a weaker renewal of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. That could be a bit harsh as it was won by Eagle Top, but he won it very easily and Adelaide has been narrowly denied at Belmont in a Grade One. With all that taken into account he would still have to step up his form to win here and preference would be for his stable mate Kings Fete.

Snow Sky winning the Lingfield Derby Trial

On the breeding side of things, there is a large differential between the two sides as on the Sire's side (Nayef) there is no shortage of stamina, however his Dam (Winter Silence) has bred sprinters which would put stamina into doubt. Especially after his exploits at Goodwood Snow Sky can be overlooked and others are preferred.

Windshear

The final contender on the list is Richard Hannon's representative in Windshear who was unlucky in the Gordon Stakes but has been ultra consistent all year. He has also been beaten by three others in the race at this stage which are Hartnell, Elite Army and Snow Sky, although the only one I would consider a danger out of them three is Hartnell.

Windshear winning at Sandown

As mentioned previously he was unlucky in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, however when he got into daylight he absolutely flew home and just ran out of time behind Snow Sky. He was ridden as if they had some stamina doubts about him that day, but he answered that question in no uncertain fashion so staying power is no worry. The only worry I have about him is that he has finished second on his last four attempts, whereas I have no worries regarding his temperament but it is understandable to have them doubts.

Windshear may come close for this event but it could just be that he finds one or two too good, but if he did get his head in front there would be no other that deserved it more.


1st - Kings Fete (16/1)
2nd - Romsdal (8/1)
3rd - Windshear (14/1)

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