Cheltenham 2014 Ante Post Selections

During the build up to Cheltenham I will be posting some ante post fancies of mine on the blog and introducing a Festival points system! (Oooooooooh) Enjoy!

Ryanair Chase - Baily Green

Mouse Morris had a great day out with Baily Green last year when he was beaten two and a quarter lengths by Simonsig in the Arkle, after looking the winner at one point. In truth two miles has never really been Baily Green's specialist trip despite winning over it 4 times including 3 chases in Novice company. Outside of the Novice ranks he has proved a more than useful horse over 2 and a half miles, after shaping as if stamina was at a premium last time in the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles. His jumping was brilliant throughout that race except for at the last when he surrendered the advantage to the smooth travelling Texas Jack, but still managed to rally for 2nd beaten three parts of a length. 

Earlier on in the season Baily Green had gone down by a length and a quarter to dual Cheltenham Festival winner Sizing Europe over the same trip. One of the main reasons for the selection is the yearly limbo of who will take their place in the Ryanair and who will go to the Gold Cup which is getting clearer by the day. There

Baily Green in Action at Cheltenham last year

has been sustained support for Benefficient this week which would give the idea that he will be running providing all is well with him. We then work our way down to three horses who will undoubtedly be in the Gold Cup, I speak of Cue Card, Al Ferof and First Lieutenant with Dynaste in next who also has his options open. Further down you get to the likes of Menorah, Cantlow and Hidden Cyclone who in truth really should not be shorter than Baily Green, not that we mind.

In short I fully expect Cheltenham to once again play to Baily Green's strengths and after such a strong display last season, another is very much expected. Note that Mouse Morris has said that Baily Green is much more likely to take up his engagement here if Sprinter Sacre runs in the Champion Chase. 

Baily Green - 2 points each way at 25/1 (Ladbrokes and Betfred)

Arkle - Grandouet

I'm expecting a lot of abuse for this next selection which is probably justified but along with the minority on Twitter I feel Grandouet is overpriced. It's hard to believe that he is still just a 7 year old as he seems to have been around forever but remains lightly raced having only seen the racecourse in England and Ireland 16 times. Admittedly a lot of his time off has been forced through injury but in my mind he has strengthened physically every year of his career. Let's start off in a unique fashion and quash some usual counter arguments against him.

He is a bridle horse - Untrue, his victory in the International Hurdle of 2011 and his 2nd in the Henry VIII this season proves that he isn't, he does however travel very stylishly.

He can't jump - Also untrue, sure on his debut he was a bit jittery at times but what Novice isn't? His unseating at the last wasn't entirely his fault but he did make a mistake which you can't deny. He then went on to finish second in a Grade 1 and arguably would have won for a mistake at a bad time, he jumped the tricky Sandown fences very well however.

He is too keen for his own good - This one can be true but do you really think in the Arkle they will be going a crawl? Especially if Champagne Fever turns up to ensure its a stamina test.

Grandouet (Centre) winning the International at Cheltenham

Cheltenham isn't his track - Bar the one time he didn't complete in last years Champion Hurdle his record round Prestbury Park is pretty good. From four completions he is yet to finish outside of the first 3 including a Grade 2 victory and a place as well as a third in a Grade 1. Does that sound like a horse who doesn't like the track?

Finally, he isn't good enough - Grandouet was rated 166 over hurdles and has a Grade 1 and Grade 2 victory to his name, he IS good enough.

So there are a few theories answered about Grandouet and one final point is that it doesn't worry me that he is a maiden over fences. Of course it isn't ideal but he ran with great credit in one of the strongest Novice Chases this season and is yet to run on Good ground which he relishes. Forget his last Kempton effort, that was a farce of a race and he probably should never have ran on ground as soft as it was. 

Grandouet - 2 points each way at 16/1 (Paddypower and Bet365)

 

Supreme - Irving

Paul Nicholls' has one here in Irving that has really impressed me this season on all three starts showing a great temperament and versatility throughout. He started off life in England with a fantastic display at Taunton when beating the potentially useful Cup Final with the minimum of fuss after travelling strongly. 

He then went on to what would be his first visit to Ascot in what has to be said was an average race however the runner up has since run well in better company. That race was run very slowly so turned into a dash, but you wouldn't have thought so by looking at how strung out Irving had them at the finish. Once again he moved stylishly throughout and had things in control turning for home, but it was two fantastic jumps helped seal the victory with Nick Scholfield easing him close to home. 

Irving in winning action at Ascot

Next on the agenda was the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle in which Volnay De Thaix was sent off the 4/5 favourite but was brushed aside by Irving. It came as a surprise to many to see Prince Siegfried giving Irving the most to think about but he fell at the last when looking held in truth. This race was run in a completely different manner to his previous victories as Splash Of Ginge ensured a good gallop, but Irving still oozed class with the way he travelled. The only complaint that can be made is that he got in a little bit tight to the second last but he soon picked up and was leading at the last.

The only thing left to mention is that Irving will be taking the route that My Tent Or Yours followed on the run up to Cheltenham last year, by running in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He gets into that race off a lenitent mark of 143 which he should be able to handle with no problems but it is a tough race of course.

Irving - 3 points win at 10/1 (Paddypower and Betvictor)

             1 point at 33/1 Irving to win the Betfair Hurdle and Supreme Novices (Paddypower and Bet 365)