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Thursday 14 March 2013

Cheltenham Festival Day Four 2013

Well yesterday didn't go too much to plan either with only Captain Sunshine coming second for us under Paddy Brennan. Personally I was gutted as Holywell has been a selection on here on many occasions this season and of course yesterday I didn't back him. Another apology must be made on my behalf as I had a saver on Solwhit, and also changed in the Kim Muir to Same Difference who got up just on the line. But we still have one more day and a lot of good chances however.

We must pass on our commiserations to the connections of Matuhi who sadly lost his life yesterday when falling at the last. I was on the stands for the whole time and the course vet's was working on saving him for a good hour but in the end we tragically lost Matuhi. Unfortunately life decides to pick a day when it is going to pile it on, after an injury free first two days we suffered a couple of Jockey injuries today. Davy Russell was first stood down after suffering a spontaneous collapsed lung after riding in the first two races. Then JT McNamara suffered a horrific injury resulting in him being airlifted to hospital, he was placed into an induced coma on course after being conscious after the fall. All that has been said so far is that it is a serious neck injury and more will be known in the morning about it.

But onto the final day's action:

JCB Triumph Hurdle - Our Conor

An Irish start to the final day in the shape of Dessie Hughes Gelding Our Conor who is unbeaten over jumps and was no slouch on the level either. Last time out he really lept on to the Triumph Hurdle scene beating re-opposing rival Diakali and, the form was further franked by Ruacana, Blood Cotil and Flaxen Flare running big races in the Fred Winter. That was on softer ground and his other two National Hunt wins have been on softer ground as well, he has however shown a liking for fast ground in his earlier days. Unfortunately the manner of his victories places him at the head of the market this afternoon and we wont get much of a price. Saying that he is a worthy favourite and is taken to land the opener. (10/3)

Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Hisaabaat

Dermot Weld's representative can make this two on the day for Ireland in just the first two races after showing his worth in last years Triumph. He was second that day and went on to win the four year old hurdle in Punchestown, proving how tough he was when doing so. He is yet to really fire this year but Dermot Weld has taken his time with him and this return to better ground can help him show his best again. He has more than enough pace to deal with the likely gallop from his flat days and with Michael Nolan taking off five pounds looks to be well in with a shout. Well worth an each way punt at a good price. (25/1)

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - African Gold

The bet of the day from the bang in form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard under his son and stable jockey Sam Twiston-Davies. African Gold himself though has proved himself an admirable performer, winning on five of his six appearances on a racecourse. These have come on all sorts of ground varying from Heavy down to Good showing his versatility and if anything his toughness. The main thing is the yard though, many big stables aren't firing including Paul Nicholls' yard and AP McCoy is without a winner this week. Team Twiston-Davies have been plenty amongst the winners however with Same Difference yesterday and even 100/1 Changing times getting third in the Jewson. Bet of the day at a useful price. (13/2)

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Long Run

Nicky Henderson is double handed in the Gold Cup with previous winner Long Run set to try and regain his crown. Last year he could only manage third behind Synchronised and The Giant Bolster, but he didn't seem right for the whole year in fairness. It could just be that his victory in 2011 bottomed him. He was back to his best last time however when regaining his King George crown. Im ashamed to admit that I am one of the people who believes he would be better with Geraghty on board. I also feel his guts and talent got Sam Waley-Cohen out of trouble last time. But who am I to knock a dual King George and a Gold Cup winning jockey.

To me at the prices, Long Run is the value and also the best horse in the race. Lets not forget that he handed out a beating to Kauto Star more than once and beat Denman in a Gold Cup. But he was knocked last year when only winning at Newbury and even that was far from impressive. This year however he looks somewhere near the same horse he was in 2011 after his battling win at Kempton.

One more positive is that he goes straight to the Festival this year after a hard fought success in December. He will arrive a fresh horse and after working at Kempton will be spot on for the race and should take some beating. Long Run gets the nod (7/1 ante post) (6/1 Currently)

CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup - Chapoturgeon

Last years runner up behind Salsify, they take each other on again this year and in the race that once again should be about these two. Chapoturgeon has run just once this year and won that very easily at Newbury so comes here the fresher horse than Salsify, which could work into his favour today. Last year he went down by only a length and then went on to run a huge race at Aintree after giving absolutely everything last year. He gave so much that after the race he was having to be held up by his Jockey and helpers until he was strong enough to walk back to the stables. His lighter campaign today will help him no end and could well see him come out on top this year and get revenge on Salsify. (5/1)

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - Ma Filleule

As always a wide open race in the Conditional Jockeys Handicap, preference however is for Nicky Henderson's Ma Filleule ridden by Jeremiah McGrath. She has been ultra consistent since coming over from France winning 2 of her four races and finding one too good in the other two races. She was most impressive on debut in this country when on better ground but that was also her easiest race so far. She won last time when stepped up in trip last time and showed her staying power when winning nicely at Warwick on testing ground. She beat Swincombe Flame that day who was placed in the Mares Hurdle earlier in the week and takes on stable mate Kells Belle again who she comfortably beat. If progressing again she will be a major player today. (10/1)

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup - Stagecoach Pearl

I would like to say I have a really strong fancy to conclude the 2013 Festival, but I cant. If anything this is just an interest bet on a horse who is slipping down the weights and is very classy. This horse comes in the shape of Sue Smith's nine year old grey Stagecoach Pearl who is without a win since 2011. He has been taking on much better opposition since then, behind Master Minded one day at Ascot, he was well beaten which was to be expected. He is down to two pounds higher than his last winning mark of 143 and if anything near his best is well worth a small each way bet. (40/1)


NAP - African Gold
Nb - Long Run

Id like to thank everyone that has stuck with me this week and given me your views on my twitter page. Its nice to hear back from you and to know there are people reading my thoughts, and even better to hear what you think of the days races. You can follow me on twitter on @lukeyboy1325. Thank you again to everyone who has read this week.

Happy Punting today guys.

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