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Saturday 18 February 2012

18th February - Ascot

Yesterday saw one of the most impressive performances of the year in Sprinter Sacre winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. He broke the track record on the bridle and shouts of going to the champion chase have been heard. His stable mate Long Run also recorded a pre-festival victory when winning the Denman chase, albeit not convincing. He has been eased in the betting for the Gold Cup in March and is now Joint Favourites with Kauto Star. Its good to see class racing back on a Saturday afternoon after the weather took a turn for the worst two weeks ago. Today the National Hunt action comes from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton.

Ascot - 1:15
KEYS is a short priced favourite for this affair today and if he wants to book his Cheltenham ticket today is the day for him. Just the one start over hurdles so far in which he was beaten by Cinders and Ashes (tipped below for the Supreme Novices). He will most likely come on for that run and should take all the beating here. SAINT ROQUE is sure to improve for his first run at Hereford, Market support should be interesting for this one from the Paul Nicholls yard, but he could find one too good in Nicky Henderson's charge. If you can forgive DENALI HIGHWAY'S second run at Ascot he looks over priced after beating some useful horses at Uttoxeter first time out. BOLD HENRY will probably be the each way selection for many people after an encouraging debut at Ludlow and being the choice of Richard Johnson. If SUPER DUTY is none the worse for his fall at Ayr then he should be the one to take the favourite closest here. He was 3 out of 3 before his fall but he was looking vulnerable when falling. This ground will suit him alot more. THE LAST NIGHT came 3rd at Huntingdon in a very hot race first time out, any improvement from that should see him go close with Noel Fehily on board today. But its hard to see past the favourite KEYS who looks a very useful Novice and should open his account today. THE LAST NIGHT for each way punters.

Ascot 1:50
A race that seems to revolve around the top two in the race. BOBS WORTH was behind Grand Crus and opponent SILVINIACO CONTI last time in the Feltham but before that won his only Chase beating Cue Card on the line. It has seemed so far in his Chasing career that he isnt as talented over fences as he was over hurdles, saying that he open to improvement. the latter mentioned was 3 lengths ahead of his market rival in the Feltham and only considerable improvement from BOBS WORTH should see the form reversed today. ALFIE SPINNER has taken well to chasing but you would imagine he would find these too good today and should only be playing for minor money. BAILE ANRAI was well held behind SILVINIACO CONTI when these two met previously when he fell. That was his first Chase however and before that he was 2nd in the Persian War at Chepstow (6 lengths behind Fingal Bay). Im going to take a chance with INVICTUS today though in a hope that 3 miles will bring out more improvement in him. Ran at Cheltenham last time and never really fell in love with the course leading to a few mistakes. Ascot looks more like a course he will thrive at if he can get galloping. INVICTUS to spoil the party for the big two.

2:25 Ascot
THE MINACK has been a much improved horse this year and for his exertions he has to run off a mark of 159 and give lumps of weight away all round here. It could just be that he is a very good horse but today could be the day the handicapper gets him finally. CHANCE DU ROY is upped to three miles today after disappointing in his last two runs, before that he won a hot contest at Newbury on Hennessy day. If you take that form straight then CRESCENT ISLAND should be ahead of Phillip Hobbs' horse on the line but he does have a mind of his own and can make the jockey look very foolish at times, one to back with caution. On his day he a very useful horse though. PENNY MAX has taken a forward in his career but has been raised 21 pounds for his two wins, there should be more to come from him but i think his best claims today are for a place. PEARLYSTEPS is an admirable horse and always runs his heart out, today may just be too much for him and he does perform best in bottomless conditions. HELL'S BAY has been tumbling down the weights since his return but there is a reason for that, when putting his best foot forward he is a very useful animal but hasnt shown that since his return from injury. Brendan Powell's 5 pound claim can only help. MASSINI'S MAGUIRE hated conditions last time and was pulled up at this track, the going today will be much more in his favour however and should go close. CAPPA BLEU once looked to have the world at his feet but has failed to shine since his foxhunters win, he runs off the same mark he did when 3rd in the Welsh National today and after a short break looks sure to go well. I'm going to side with the Twiston-Davies horse today though in VIKING BLOND who last time didnt enjoy the ground in the Welsh National and was rightly pulled up by Sam Twiston  Davies. After a busy start to the year he has been given a break to freshen him up and should be ready to go this time round. A stamina laden front runner round Ascot is usually not a bad thing and he may be able to pound a few of these into submission under his low weight. VIKING BLOND is the selection

3:00 - Ascot
The main race of the day is the Ascot Chase and there has been alot of money for RIVERSIDE THEATRE who comes of a long lay off after being seen last in this race 12 months ago. Before that he was second to Long Run in the King George which is very strong form. Fitness is a worry and for that reason we shall take him on today. At Sandown it looked as if KAUTO STONE was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when second in the Tingle Creek, he gets his wish today. He should right in the firing line as they turn for home and could just get home in front, but he isnt proven at this level (could be a bit unfair) and is opposed today. IMSINGINGTHEBLUES and TATENEN both love Ascot but shouldnt be good enough to land a blow today. GAUVAIN is back over his best trip today after falling in the Victor Chandler  last time out. He won the Peterborough on the back of a fall at Sandown and could go close again this time. He was soundly beaten last year in this contest but the ground is right for him this time round and should be able to ruffle a few feathers among the main protagonists. MEDERMIT is another horse who is better over this trip but i fear that he may not be good enough to win this race, but looks set to run another big race for connections. I'm taking a big gamble today on my selection in LITTLE JOSH who ran a lovely race last time out in the Argento at Cheltenham but just faded late on, this is due to the long lay off and the fact he probably doesnt stay 3 miles. This is by far his strongest trip and there is another big race in him somewhere. Sam Twiston Davies has been excited to get back on him over this trip after the Argento and the Big Bold front runner can make his presence felt here today.

3:35 - Ascot
We did well yesterday in the big handicap hurdle with Get me out of here running an unlucky second at Newbury. A few chasers reverting back to Hurdles here, namely CRACK AWAY JACK, EMMASLEGEND and SARANDO the last mentioned was second to Quito De La Roque at Aintree last year but hasnt followed through his potential this term. You would imagine connections have a longer term target in mind and are trying to protect his handicap mark over fences and is avoided today. CRACK AWAY JACK is undoubtedly a better hurdler than a chaser, his fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle being the stand out form. He may just be a tad high in the weights right now but would be no surprise at all to see him get a place. MOUNTAINOUS has been really well in himself but goes better on softer ground it seems. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote after being a huge gamble and more market support will only be in her favour today. She may just find it a bit tough to win today however under a higher mark and an arguably tougher field. SMAD PLACE won well first time out this year at this course and looked to have improved no end, he looks a tad vulnerable under his big weight today and it would be impressive should he win today. ART PROFESSOR is a fragile horse but has been running well this year without reward, he is only off a one pound higher mark today and should be thereabouts again. DUNRAVEN STORM was once a very exciting Novice but since his second to Cue Card he has been very disappointing and it would be a surprise to see him bounce back to form today. ORZARE ran well behind SMAD PLACE here last time and would have been closer for a bad mistake at the last, he gets a bit more weight than last time but that still shouldnt be enough to help him win. Preference today is for the Same team that got us the 20/1 second yesterday, the team of Jonjo O'Neill, JP McManus and Maurice Linehan. EASTLAKE is the horse today and looked badly in need of the run in the Lanzarote hurdle after turning for home travelling strongly and just emptied out, backed off the boards after pricewise put it up this morning is now generally 8/1 best price after being bigger in the morning. Would be no surprise to see Ruby and Maurice fight out the finish again but today the team from Jack Daws should get on top.

4:10 - Ascot 
HAZY TOM was disappointing last time but the ground could be seen as an excuse for that and conditions today will be more up his street, he still has to prove himself at this level for me so im going to swerve him today. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE has been running well but tipped up last time when going away at the last hurdle, he seems to be progressing nicely in his career and should be one of the main threats in this race. Preference here is for BALDER SUCCES who is unbeaten so far and looks like a very nice prospect for the future, i would be surprised if he should fail to get home in front today. The top three arent separated by much and it should be an intriguing race in store.

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