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Saturday 21 January 2012

Ascot 21st January

It's Saturday which means one thing, top jumps racing and Victor Chandler day at Ascot has failed to disappoint. Competitive racing throughout the card and a high class 2 Mile Chase in the Victor Chandler itself.

1:00 - James Reveley suffered a bad fall on boxing day leaving him out with concussion but has been riding out of his skin since he has been back, he gets the leg up on sure to be popular ROYALE'S CHARTER. He came second behind Menorah last time out, albeit beaten 13 lengths and but was beaten a very long way out. VINO GRIEGO ran a brilliant race two runs ago at this course when finding just the impressive The Minack too good. It seemed a bad mistake at the second last accounted for his chances. Another run like that will see him go very close. OLDRIK is one that has rekindled his old form winning his last two races very nicely and seems to be heading back in the right direction. TRIOLO D'ALENE has his first run in England today but has won a 4 year old chase at Fontainebleau by three lengths. Im willing to take a chance on ACKERTAC who hasnt sparkled over fences yet but has put in some promising runs most notably first time out when second to Micheal Flips over course and distance. Since then he has been tried over more extreme distances and a return to this distance should see him go well and 11/1 is definitely worth an each way punt.

1:30 - KAPGA DE CERISY'S defection leaves us with a field of three and makes BALDER SUCCES'S chance much easier. Just the one run under rules he won a Novice Hurdle at Plumpton in very taking fashion. CUBAN PIECE gets 4 pounds from the favourite and has won a race at Bangor, but his run last time out would suggest he wont get anywhere near Alan King's horse. It's only fair to mention the other horse in the line-up from the Sheena West yard, BRILLIANT BARCA won a juvenile hurdle at Warwick on good ground but failed to fire at all in a very hot race at chepstow last time out on heavy ground. An easy win for BALDER SUCCES looks on the cards today

2:05 - KENTFORD GREY LADY is a horse going very much in the right direction when cosily landing a competitive mares hurdle at Kempton last time out. She had VIOLIN DAVIS and CLOUDY SPIRIT well behind her that day and its very hard to see either of them two reversing that form with her today. OUR GIRL SALLEY won a class one in Ireland last time and for that she has to carry an extra 5 pounds. She however a very useful individual and is certainly towards the top. Even though she is the top rated in the race and could be even better than her mark suggests. KENTFORD GREY LADY falls under the same category and looks certain to be a better horse than her mark suggests. That's why Emma Lavelle's mare is the selection today.

2:35 - A very competitive hurdle here and co-favourites of four as I write this. One of them is SMAD PLACE who has his first run this season and would be no surprise to see him need the run. Also every time he has been upped to a class 1 it has ended in defeat, but could be a better horse this year. CICERON won nicely at Sandown last time out and its notable that Aidan Coleman isnt here to ride him who he really likes. I get the feeling that his big day this season has come but should be close. SHOREACRES was caught on the line on boxing day by Deireadh Re but it was still a very good performance and its notable that Barry Geraghty gets the leg up today. A BRIDGE TOO FAR always seems to find one too good and may be best swerved today until he shows a real winning attitude, although he has won before. PATEESE would have appreciated softer going and its hard to see him having a solid chance today. My selection is Nicky Henderson's JOSEPH LISTER who has 10 pounds taken off by very useful claimer Gary Derwin who won on him last time at Huntingdon. He didnt beat much that day but it was only his third run and will come on leaps and bounds for that.

3:10 - A race that revolves around the top two AL FEROF and FINIAN'S RAINBOW. The latter won the Desert Orchid chase last time out at Kempton in very impressive style and it looks like he will take all the beating and is my NAP of the day. With AL FEROF It's hard to see a novice winning a Victor Chandler especially with only two runs over fences under his belt. He won the Henry 8th Novice Chase at Ascot last time battling off For Non Stop who failed to frank the form next time out when beaten by Cue Card. the form from that race isnt the strongest and definitely not up to a race of this standard. FORPADYDEPLASTERER is an admirable sort and always runs his race but finds winning hard to come by. GAUVAIN doesnt look as good over 2 miles as 2 and a half and should come up short again here. WISHFULL THINKING was beaten by our selection last time out and with doubt's in the hobbs camp about him it is hard to see him reversing the form today. SOMERSBY doesnt look fast enough in a finish anymore for a 2 miler and his future surely lies over longer trips.

3:45 - My NB today is Martin Keighley's ALL FOR FREE who looked as if he was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when staying on like a train last time out at Sandown and he still gets in at a very low weight. TATENEN enjoys it round here but is very temperamental and if on a going day could win this race with ease (remember he was once sent off favourite for an Arkle). ZAYNAR falls under the same category and looked back to his best when winning last time out at this course but isnt sure to get his own way out in front today. NOLAND is dropped in trip after a valiant effort in the Lexus behind Synchronised but a return to his very best will see him take all the beating while the handicapper looks to have caught RENARD now. HECTOR'S CHOICE ran a very good race at Cheltenham last time behind Calgary Bay, a repeat of that will surely see another positive outcome. ALL FOR FREE is the very strong selection though.

4:20 - A Novice hurdle that is headed by Nicky Henderson's HADRIAN'S APPROACH who won here first time out while being very green, he will come on for that run and should take all the beating. GROVE PRIDE has run well in all his runs so far but is yet to get his head in front. THE PRETENDER is from the Paul Nicholls yard and should come on for his first run when sixth at Warwick. BE ALL MAN was behind Joseph Lister last time out and is considered especially if Joseph Lister runs well.

NAP - Finian's rainbow
NB - All for free

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