Yesterday saw one of the most impressive performances of the year in Sprinter Sacre winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. He broke the track record on the bridle and shouts of going to the champion chase have been heard. His stable mate Long Run also recorded a pre-festival victory when winning the Denman chase, albeit not convincing. He has been eased in the betting for the Gold Cup in March and is now Joint Favourites with Kauto Star. Its good to see class racing back on a Saturday afternoon after the weather took a turn for the worst two weeks ago. Today the National Hunt action comes from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton.
Ascot - 1:15
KEYS is a short priced favourite for this affair today and if he wants to book his Cheltenham ticket today is the day for him. Just the one start over hurdles so far in which he was beaten by Cinders and Ashes (tipped below for the Supreme Novices). He will most likely come on for that run and should take all the beating here. SAINT ROQUE is sure to improve for his first run at Hereford, Market support should be interesting for this one from the Paul Nicholls yard, but he could find one too good in Nicky Henderson's charge. If you can forgive DENALI HIGHWAY'S second run at Ascot he looks over priced after beating some useful horses at Uttoxeter first time out. BOLD HENRY will probably be the each way selection for many people after an encouraging debut at Ludlow and being the choice of Richard Johnson. If SUPER DUTY is none the worse for his fall at Ayr then he should be the one to take the favourite closest here. He was 3 out of 3 before his fall but he was looking vulnerable when falling. This ground will suit him alot more. THE LAST NIGHT came 3rd at Huntingdon in a very hot race first time out, any improvement from that should see him go close with Noel Fehily on board today. But its hard to see past the favourite KEYS who looks a very useful Novice and should open his account today. THE LAST NIGHT for each way punters.
Ascot 1:50
A race that seems to revolve around the top two in the race. BOBS WORTH was behind Grand Crus and opponent SILVINIACO CONTI last time in the Feltham but before that won his only Chase beating Cue Card on the line. It has seemed so far in his Chasing career that he isnt as talented over fences as he was over hurdles, saying that he open to improvement. the latter mentioned was 3 lengths ahead of his market rival in the Feltham and only considerable improvement from BOBS WORTH should see the form reversed today. ALFIE SPINNER has taken well to chasing but you would imagine he would find these too good today and should only be playing for minor money. BAILE ANRAI was well held behind SILVINIACO CONTI when these two met previously when he fell. That was his first Chase however and before that he was 2nd in the Persian War at Chepstow (6 lengths behind Fingal Bay). Im going to take a chance with INVICTUS today though in a hope that 3 miles will bring out more improvement in him. Ran at Cheltenham last time and never really fell in love with the course leading to a few mistakes. Ascot looks more like a course he will thrive at if he can get galloping. INVICTUS to spoil the party for the big two.
2:25 Ascot
THE MINACK has been a much improved horse this year and for his exertions he has to run off a mark of 159 and give lumps of weight away all round here. It could just be that he is a very good horse but today could be the day the handicapper gets him finally. CHANCE DU ROY is upped to three miles today after disappointing in his last two runs, before that he won a hot contest at Newbury on Hennessy day. If you take that form straight then CRESCENT ISLAND should be ahead of Phillip Hobbs' horse on the line but he does have a mind of his own and can make the jockey look very foolish at times, one to back with caution. On his day he a very useful horse though. PENNY MAX has taken a forward in his career but has been raised 21 pounds for his two wins, there should be more to come from him but i think his best claims today are for a place. PEARLYSTEPS is an admirable horse and always runs his heart out, today may just be too much for him and he does perform best in bottomless conditions. HELL'S BAY has been tumbling down the weights since his return but there is a reason for that, when putting his best foot forward he is a very useful animal but hasnt shown that since his return from injury. Brendan Powell's 5 pound claim can only help. MASSINI'S MAGUIRE hated conditions last time and was pulled up at this track, the going today will be much more in his favour however and should go close. CAPPA BLEU once looked to have the world at his feet but has failed to shine since his foxhunters win, he runs off the same mark he did when 3rd in the Welsh National today and after a short break looks sure to go well. I'm going to side with the Twiston-Davies horse today though in VIKING BLOND who last time didnt enjoy the ground in the Welsh National and was rightly pulled up by Sam Twiston Davies. After a busy start to the year he has been given a break to freshen him up and should be ready to go this time round. A stamina laden front runner round Ascot is usually not a bad thing and he may be able to pound a few of these into submission under his low weight. VIKING BLOND is the selection
3:00 - Ascot
The main race of the day is the Ascot Chase and there has been alot of money for RIVERSIDE THEATRE who comes of a long lay off after being seen last in this race 12 months ago. Before that he was second to Long Run in the King George which is very strong form. Fitness is a worry and for that reason we shall take him on today. At Sandown it looked as if KAUTO STONE was screaming out for 2 and a half miles when second in the Tingle Creek, he gets his wish today. He should right in the firing line as they turn for home and could just get home in front, but he isnt proven at this level (could be a bit unfair) and is opposed today. IMSINGINGTHEBLUES and TATENEN both love Ascot but shouldnt be good enough to land a blow today. GAUVAIN is back over his best trip today after falling in the Victor Chandler last time out. He won the Peterborough on the back of a fall at Sandown and could go close again this time. He was soundly beaten last year in this contest but the ground is right for him this time round and should be able to ruffle a few feathers among the main protagonists. MEDERMIT is another horse who is better over this trip but i fear that he may not be good enough to win this race, but looks set to run another big race for connections. I'm taking a big gamble today on my selection in LITTLE JOSH who ran a lovely race last time out in the Argento at Cheltenham but just faded late on, this is due to the long lay off and the fact he probably doesnt stay 3 miles. This is by far his strongest trip and there is another big race in him somewhere. Sam Twiston Davies has been excited to get back on him over this trip after the Argento and the Big Bold front runner can make his presence felt here today.
3:35 - Ascot
We did well yesterday in the big handicap hurdle with Get me out of here running an unlucky second at Newbury. A few chasers reverting back to Hurdles here, namely CRACK AWAY JACK, EMMASLEGEND and SARANDO the last mentioned was second to Quito De La Roque at Aintree last year but hasnt followed through his potential this term. You would imagine connections have a longer term target in mind and are trying to protect his handicap mark over fences and is avoided today. CRACK AWAY JACK is undoubtedly a better hurdler than a chaser, his fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle being the stand out form. He may just be a tad high in the weights right now but would be no surprise at all to see him get a place. MOUNTAINOUS has been really well in himself but goes better on softer ground it seems. SWINCOMBE FLAME won the Lanzarote after being a huge gamble and more market support will only be in her favour today. She may just find it a bit tough to win today however under a higher mark and an arguably tougher field. SMAD PLACE won well first time out this year at this course and looked to have improved no end, he looks a tad vulnerable under his big weight today and it would be impressive should he win today. ART PROFESSOR is a fragile horse but has been running well this year without reward, he is only off a one pound higher mark today and should be thereabouts again. DUNRAVEN STORM was once a very exciting Novice but since his second to Cue Card he has been very disappointing and it would be a surprise to see him bounce back to form today. ORZARE ran well behind SMAD PLACE here last time and would have been closer for a bad mistake at the last, he gets a bit more weight than last time but that still shouldnt be enough to help him win. Preference today is for the Same team that got us the 20/1 second yesterday, the team of Jonjo O'Neill, JP McManus and Maurice Linehan. EASTLAKE is the horse today and looked badly in need of the run in the Lanzarote hurdle after turning for home travelling strongly and just emptied out, backed off the boards after pricewise put it up this morning is now generally 8/1 best price after being bigger in the morning. Would be no surprise to see Ruby and Maurice fight out the finish again but today the team from Jack Daws should get on top.
4:10 - Ascot
HAZY TOM was disappointing last time but the ground could be seen as an excuse for that and conditions today will be more up his street, he still has to prove himself at this level for me so im going to swerve him today. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE has been running well but tipped up last time when going away at the last hurdle, he seems to be progressing nicely in his career and should be one of the main threats in this race. Preference here is for BALDER SUCCES who is unbeaten so far and looks like a very nice prospect for the future, i would be surprised if he should fail to get home in front today. The top three arent separated by much and it should be an intriguing race in store.
Saturday, 18 February 2012
Friday, 17 February 2012
Newbury on Friday continued....
1:50
An exciting Novice Hurdle in which you would be surprised if the winner didnt come from one of the top four. VULCANITE probably has the most to prove out of the lot but does look a good horse and has made the transition from the flat to hurdles very well. He could just be out of his depth in a race like this though. ALL THE ACES is another from the flat who has taken well to hurdles, i would rather be on the Henderson horse rather than the first mentioned. MONTBAZON is one of the leading horses in the Supreme Novices this year but hasnt been too impressive so far, a win today would give you more confidence, last time at Fontwell he won at 1/10 and it would have been worrying if he couldnt win that race. I got the feeling that his jumping isnt clean enough to win a race of this standard and has everything to prove. COLOUR SQUADRON is the selection today, he threw away his chance last time by hanging badly left in the Tolworth Hurdle last time. The opposite way round today and that should play to his strengths. TANERKO EMERY could be a better horse than the rest who fell on his first start under rules, he would be my idea of an each way bet.
2:25
A very competitive 3 mile hurdle with some more than interesting horses. none more so than JUNIOR and BUENA VISTA who wont quite be wound up yet with bigger targets set for them. GRABTHEGLORY unseated his rider last time out but before that had been progressing very nicely and is shaping into a very nice horse, i would expect him to go close again today. GULLINBURSTI is an exciting novice but was beaten last time by an exciting horse from Paul Nicholls. Ridden by Emma Lavelle's new stable jockey Noel Fehily he may just find a couple too good today but should give a good account of himself. QROKTOU has been running very well without reward but was beaten at odds on last time in a novice hurdle. EXTREME IMPACT has a ten pound claimer on board so has a fly weight to carry, he does seem to run his best races at Chepstow but is wouldnt be a surprise to see him pop up at a big price today. Paul Nicholls looks to hold the key to this one with DEIREADH RE, he got up to win his last race on the last stride which would suggest he will stay every yard of this race today. Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds who won on him last time out.
2:55
This race is a reminder about just how strong the Novice chase division is this year. MOSSLEY found only Bobs Worth too good at Cheltenham last year, he hasnt really set the world alight with his jumping and looks like a better hurdler than a chaser. One with something to prove. WALKON will appreciate the longer distance this time out and may be the biggest improver in the field. PACHA DU POLDER is capable but doesnt look good enough to trouble horses of this standard. The same may apply to MICHEAL FLIPS who is pretty exposed but could be experienced enough to play a hand in the finish today. OUR MICK is an improving horse and won well at Kempton on boxing day, however he may meet a few horses that are more forward in their chasing career than him today. CEDRE BLEU made a nice chasing debut when he beat the 'reluctant' Bellvano who won at kelso in the week. He jumped like a stag at most fences here first time out and could be a very good horse. My selection is FOR NON STOP here who will stay this trip all day, last time suffered a bad mistake at the first in the home straight last time behind Cue Card. Before that he pushed Al Ferof all the way to the line and it would be no surprise to see him come home in front today for Noel Fehily and Nick Williams.
3:30
VILLAGE VIC and GEVREY CHAMBERTIN both won their first starts at Chepstow, the latter is a full brother to Grand Crus and could have a bit about him after winning by 30 lengths on debut (admittedly he didnt beat much) but it was the way he did it. The former won just as impressively by 14 lengths but both were on heavy ground. SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR won a very competitive race at Ascot last time and has to be respected. VRAI VERT won nicely at Hereford last time out and holds leading claims. In truth most of these have a chance, and that includes David O'Meara's CHANCERY who was running a big race at Cheltenham in a bumper last time when just fading up the hill but finished a respectable second. That is who we are siding with today.
Happy Punting as always
An exciting Novice Hurdle in which you would be surprised if the winner didnt come from one of the top four. VULCANITE probably has the most to prove out of the lot but does look a good horse and has made the transition from the flat to hurdles very well. He could just be out of his depth in a race like this though. ALL THE ACES is another from the flat who has taken well to hurdles, i would rather be on the Henderson horse rather than the first mentioned. MONTBAZON is one of the leading horses in the Supreme Novices this year but hasnt been too impressive so far, a win today would give you more confidence, last time at Fontwell he won at 1/10 and it would have been worrying if he couldnt win that race. I got the feeling that his jumping isnt clean enough to win a race of this standard and has everything to prove. COLOUR SQUADRON is the selection today, he threw away his chance last time by hanging badly left in the Tolworth Hurdle last time. The opposite way round today and that should play to his strengths. TANERKO EMERY could be a better horse than the rest who fell on his first start under rules, he would be my idea of an each way bet.
2:25
A very competitive 3 mile hurdle with some more than interesting horses. none more so than JUNIOR and BUENA VISTA who wont quite be wound up yet with bigger targets set for them. GRABTHEGLORY unseated his rider last time out but before that had been progressing very nicely and is shaping into a very nice horse, i would expect him to go close again today. GULLINBURSTI is an exciting novice but was beaten last time by an exciting horse from Paul Nicholls. Ridden by Emma Lavelle's new stable jockey Noel Fehily he may just find a couple too good today but should give a good account of himself. QROKTOU has been running very well without reward but was beaten at odds on last time in a novice hurdle. EXTREME IMPACT has a ten pound claimer on board so has a fly weight to carry, he does seem to run his best races at Chepstow but is wouldnt be a surprise to see him pop up at a big price today. Paul Nicholls looks to hold the key to this one with DEIREADH RE, he got up to win his last race on the last stride which would suggest he will stay every yard of this race today. Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds who won on him last time out.
2:55
This race is a reminder about just how strong the Novice chase division is this year. MOSSLEY found only Bobs Worth too good at Cheltenham last year, he hasnt really set the world alight with his jumping and looks like a better hurdler than a chaser. One with something to prove. WALKON will appreciate the longer distance this time out and may be the biggest improver in the field. PACHA DU POLDER is capable but doesnt look good enough to trouble horses of this standard. The same may apply to MICHEAL FLIPS who is pretty exposed but could be experienced enough to play a hand in the finish today. OUR MICK is an improving horse and won well at Kempton on boxing day, however he may meet a few horses that are more forward in their chasing career than him today. CEDRE BLEU made a nice chasing debut when he beat the 'reluctant' Bellvano who won at kelso in the week. He jumped like a stag at most fences here first time out and could be a very good horse. My selection is FOR NON STOP here who will stay this trip all day, last time suffered a bad mistake at the first in the home straight last time behind Cue Card. Before that he pushed Al Ferof all the way to the line and it would be no surprise to see him come home in front today for Noel Fehily and Nick Williams.
3:30
VILLAGE VIC and GEVREY CHAMBERTIN both won their first starts at Chepstow, the latter is a full brother to Grand Crus and could have a bit about him after winning by 30 lengths on debut (admittedly he didnt beat much) but it was the way he did it. The former won just as impressively by 14 lengths but both were on heavy ground. SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR won a very competitive race at Ascot last time and has to be respected. VRAI VERT won nicely at Hereford last time out and holds leading claims. In truth most of these have a chance, and that includes David O'Meara's CHANCERY who was running a big race at Cheltenham in a bumper last time when just fading up the hill but finished a respectable second. That is who we are siding with today.
Happy Punting as always
Newbury on Friday
A big meeting today at Newbury, unfortunately for me i cant go to the meeting today after originally having tickets to last Saturday. But well done to Newbury for staging this re-arranged card and also for granting free entry.
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
12:10
A race that fell apart after Cue Card's withdrawal, which probably took away most of the value from the race. SPRINTER SACRE looks the sure winner if he can have a clear round, Barry Geraghty has been quoted as saying he is one of the best he is ridden. His biggest threat today is probably going to be the improving Paul Nicholls horse HOLD FAST, who last time could hardly have been more impressive when winning a pretty competitive handicap at Sandown on his second start for the yard, it is also interesting that he holds a Champion Chase entry and it will be interesting to see just how good he is. FRENCH OPERA won this race last year and is a very classy 2 mile chaser, but is the Henderson second string and will probably need the run, it could just be that his target is the Celebration Chase at Sandown at the end of the year. ZAYNAR is a very tough horse to predict, he could bolt up one day (like he did at Ascot) or never go a yard. However it looks that Nick Williams has rejuvenated the Grey Gelding who is now back running consistently. It does look like he is biting off more than he can chew here but if at his best definitely has place claims. IM SO LUCKY ran a good race for a long way in the Champion Chase behind Sizing Europe but faded on the turn for home and you would imagine this is too much for his as could be said for KINKEEL who is only there for minor place money. SPRINTER SACRE should take all the beating here though.
12:40
A race that revolves all around the defending Gold Cup champion LONG RUN who really does need to win this race if he is going to stake his Gold Cup claims. BURTON PORT is very interesting but should need the run and may have a more long term target this year. TIDAL BAY always seems to find at least one too good nowadays but on his day is more than capable, it should be that he isnt classy enough to beat the Henderson charge but definite each way claims. If WHAT A FRIEND runs to his Gold Cup form then he is a serious threat to the favourite, but he really does need to step up his game for this race if he is going to land a blow. THE GIANT BOLSTER rounds up the field and won impressively last time at Cheltenham but in a Handicap and has to give 6 pounds to everything but LONG RUN today and will take a mighty effort for him to be involved.
1:15
A race full of class with a Triumph Hurdle winner and the first two home in last years County Hurdle lining up in the field. We will start with RAYA STAR who took advantage of a slowly run Ladbroke Hurdle last time to land his big race. He should find a 5 pound rise too much but still has each way claims. OLOFI was running a big race last time at this track when coming down at this track last time out behind Celestial Halo. Big market support is very interesting for him. EMPIRE LEVANT won a Handicap Hurdle at Newbury two runs ago very impressively then found only Rock on Ruby too good two days later, reproduction of that form should put him close. Keep in mind he is 12 pounds higher for them two runs. BRAMPOUR has run some very good races this year but the handicapper seems to have caught him now, Harry Derham takes off 7 pounds, but that still may not be enough. DESERT CRY will appreciate a strong gallop but would appreciate softer ground than this. SIRE DE GRUGY had a run at Chepstow to put him straight and will be alot fitter today, he was an exciting novice last year but will need to come on if he is going to get closer today. DARLAN was very impressive last time under Barry Geraghty at Taunton last time, but it has been questioned how much he actually had left then. Before that at Cheltenham he won a battling finish which will only help him in today's company. ABERGAVENNY won a flat race at Southwell last time out and has been well in himself but may just come against one or two good horses, saying that he is nicely handicapped and would be no surprise to see him run well. Market support very interesting. GET ME OUT OF HERE and FINAL APPROACH contested the County hurdle last year. On that occasion the latter got on top right on the line. Since then he hasnt done much but finishing 10 lengths behind Voler La Vedette is a good effort and its interesting that Willie Mullins brings him over for today. The former finished a nose behind in the County and was giving away 9 pounds at Cheltenham. He is only one pound higher today but that is eliminated by Maurice Linehan's 7 pound claim today. He has been running over longer distances (second to Oscar Whisky last time) but a return to his best should see him go close. THIRD INTENTION looks a good horse and Colin Tizzard is adamant he is a better horse than we have seen so far. The race really does revolve around ZARKANDAR though who is one of the main challengers to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle in March. Its no secret that Paul Nicholls doesnt have him 100% for this race and for this reason i am going to oppose him in this big field this afternoon with JP McManus' second string, GET ME OUT OF HERE. It is a gamble on him returning to his best but last time ran a very good race at Cheltenham and his jockeys claim in invaluable. If at his best he will take all the beating.
other races to follow....
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selections
Hands up if you are excited for 13th March 2012.... if your hand is still by your side there is something wrong with you. Cheltenham is nearing closer with every second and your fancies begin to strengthen, and all the talk starts up. Unfortunately my previous ante post selection for the Supreme Novices Make a Track doesn't run in the race, however i have found a very strong replacement for him.
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cinders and Ashes
The Donald McCain horse ran a stellar race in last years Champion Bumper and has been pretty lightly campaigned this season despite having four runs. Funnily his best performance may have come in his only hurdle defeat behind Broadbackbob at Ascot when losing a ridiculous amount of ground when he collided with Ted Spread in midair. After that he had no right in playing a hand in the finish yet a cool Timmy Murphy ride saw him creep closer and go down by a length to one of Nicky Henderson's class Novices in the yard. Since that run he is three out of three over hurdles including a Class one in a Supreme Novices trial at Haydock. Just taking that form as it is on paper wouldn't be enough to win the first race at the Festival by a long way. However look deeper and you see the wins have come on Soft (9 length win) and twice on heavy (2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths). Donald McCain himself has said he will appreciate faster ground which looks the sensible approach to him. All his best form has come on better ground, even on Soft ground he beat Keys (another high class Nicky Henderson hurdler) by 9 lengths. He will have had a nice break before Cheltenham and will go there fresh, you can bet your last penny that Donald McCain will have him absolutely perfect for Cheltenham and it will be no surprise to see him kick start the Festival for the McCain and Maguire team
Best Prices - 12/1 on Bodog and Coral, I backed him on Paddypower a couple of days ago and got 12/1 (now into 9/1) and it seems the price is disappearing all the while.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Folsom Blue
A very much improving horse this season after switching to the Conor O'Dwyer yard for this season. He is 3 out of 4 this season but the races he has won have been hard to not be excited by. Each win has been more and more impressive, two runs ago he beat a very strong field effortlessly when brushing aside Star Neuville by 9 1/2 lengths then winning his next race by 9 lengths with the talented Knockgraffon King 23 lengths behind in 3rd. We are yet to see how good he really is as every performance hasnt been a huge task for him, saying that there is very little chance of him winning any cheltenham festival race on the bridle, especially this one with Boston Bob looking set to line up. However a big plus is Fingal bay going for the Neptune over 2 and a half miles. When he comes out you would imagine the price of Folsom Blue would tumble in a few points. Its clear the bookmakers dont know what to make of the selection with Totesport and Betfred going 8/1 yet the majority of bookies go 14/1 and 16/1. Either that or there have been some big bets laid down. The only worry is that all his wins have come on testing ground, however i wouldn't be too concerned, after all how many times do you get good ground in Ireland.
Best prices - Skybet, Paddypower and Williamhill 16/1 (i have doubled up the two selections at 12/1 and 16/1)
hope this gives you an insight into two tricky races. Let me know your ante-post selections either on here in the comments below or on twitter @lukeyboy1325
Happy Punting
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Cinders and Ashes
The Donald McCain horse ran a stellar race in last years Champion Bumper and has been pretty lightly campaigned this season despite having four runs. Funnily his best performance may have come in his only hurdle defeat behind Broadbackbob at Ascot when losing a ridiculous amount of ground when he collided with Ted Spread in midair. After that he had no right in playing a hand in the finish yet a cool Timmy Murphy ride saw him creep closer and go down by a length to one of Nicky Henderson's class Novices in the yard. Since that run he is three out of three over hurdles including a Class one in a Supreme Novices trial at Haydock. Just taking that form as it is on paper wouldn't be enough to win the first race at the Festival by a long way. However look deeper and you see the wins have come on Soft (9 length win) and twice on heavy (2 3/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths). Donald McCain himself has said he will appreciate faster ground which looks the sensible approach to him. All his best form has come on better ground, even on Soft ground he beat Keys (another high class Nicky Henderson hurdler) by 9 lengths. He will have had a nice break before Cheltenham and will go there fresh, you can bet your last penny that Donald McCain will have him absolutely perfect for Cheltenham and it will be no surprise to see him kick start the Festival for the McCain and Maguire team
Best Prices - 12/1 on Bodog and Coral, I backed him on Paddypower a couple of days ago and got 12/1 (now into 9/1) and it seems the price is disappearing all the while.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Folsom Blue
A very much improving horse this season after switching to the Conor O'Dwyer yard for this season. He is 3 out of 4 this season but the races he has won have been hard to not be excited by. Each win has been more and more impressive, two runs ago he beat a very strong field effortlessly when brushing aside Star Neuville by 9 1/2 lengths then winning his next race by 9 lengths with the talented Knockgraffon King 23 lengths behind in 3rd. We are yet to see how good he really is as every performance hasnt been a huge task for him, saying that there is very little chance of him winning any cheltenham festival race on the bridle, especially this one with Boston Bob looking set to line up. However a big plus is Fingal bay going for the Neptune over 2 and a half miles. When he comes out you would imagine the price of Folsom Blue would tumble in a few points. Its clear the bookmakers dont know what to make of the selection with Totesport and Betfred going 8/1 yet the majority of bookies go 14/1 and 16/1. Either that or there have been some big bets laid down. The only worry is that all his wins have come on testing ground, however i wouldn't be too concerned, after all how many times do you get good ground in Ireland.
Best prices - Skybet, Paddypower and Williamhill 16/1 (i have doubled up the two selections at 12/1 and 16/1)
hope this gives you an insight into two tricky races. Let me know your ante-post selections either on here in the comments below or on twitter @lukeyboy1325
Happy Punting
Saturday, 11 February 2012
The Return Of National Hunt
Haven't made a blog since last Saturday, i can only apologise for this. It was nice to see the Jumpers Bumpers at Kempton yesterday, namely seeing Tetlami and Oscar Whisky managing to win in their prep run for the Festival in March. Musselburgh gets the go ahead today with a good looking card and there are a few good bets to be had there.
12:35 Lingfield - You may be asking why im tipping a horse in a Maiden at Lingfield on a Saturday, but this race is actually where my NAP of the day comes from.
BURKE'S ROCK was very unlucky last time out (which was her first run) when she was badly hampered when about to turn for home at the same course. Hayley Turner was the Pilot that day and after the incident she nursed him home to which he seemed to be staying on nicely under hands and heels. She wont need to improve too much for her first run to land this competition. YAJBER looks a nice type and has a bit more experience than the others but may just be playing for places. IMTITHAL came second at 66/1 in her first start at Lingfield and the jockey booking is very positive in Kieran Fallon whereas BORDONI hasnt seen a racecourse yet and could be anything (a Sadler's Wells horse). But im siding with BURKE'S ROCK today after an encouraging maiden.
2:05 Musselburgh - KIE is exposed and disappointed majorly when failing to carry a penalty at Kempton last time, however whether there is a horse like Ranjaan in this field is debatable. The second in that race has come out and failed to boost the form so Donald Mccain's charge may be worth swerving today. UNCLE BRYN finished 2 lengths behind our selection today but was getting weight from him and shouldn't reverse the form with CREEKSIDE. John Ferguson's horse was a very useful animal on the flat rated a highest of 104, he didnt exactly win his maiden like a world beater but he did it nicely and should take all the beating today.
3:10 Musselburgh - Tipping in these races this close to Cheltenham is a difficult thing to do with trainers maybe trying to keep their horses weight down. DE BOITRON falls into this category as i have no doubt Ferdy Murphy will have the Grand Annual in mind at the Festival. SILK DRUM may be being aimed at Aintree again. SAFARI ADVENTURES is sure to make sure there is a gallop to this race but may find one or two a bit fast for him at the end of the race. KOSTA BRAVA runs of a very low weight however his jumping does need to improve considerably if he is going to land this prize. SANTA'S SON is another that is going to ensure there is no hanging around here but may not be good enough to beat a few of these but was running nicely when coming down at Haydock. LIGHTENING ROD was second to Sprinter Sacre, he was beaten by 24 lengths but was heavily eased when beaten (around 3 lengths down at the last). He unseated last time out but his jumping is usually sound enough. ULTIMATE has been tried at a higher level but may not be suited by how the race is run today. The selection for this race is Tony Carroll's GRACCHUS who was just having his first run for him when second at Warwick. Lee Edwards takes 3 off today and this looks like one to definitely be on the right side of. A winner three times in Ireland at Tipperary, Leopardstown and Cork, today could be the day he opens his account in England.
3:45 Musselburgh - The last selection today is one of the strongest bets of the day. UBI ACE won a competitive Handicap at Sandown a while back on Tingle Creek day and was far from disgraced behind Celestial Halo when 3rd last time out. Looks sure to run another strong race today and would be no surprise to see him win. PALAWI is a nice horse and won here last time out, however a 9 pound rise should account for him. DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN loves it round here and stands every chance however i get the feeling he runs his best races on soft ground. STORMY WEATHER won last time out and ran a nice race in the fighting fifth for a long way, but he seems to find winning difficult and may be worth avoiding today. KOUP DE KANON ran well at Cheltenham last time and it would be no surprise to see him go close today. CRY OF FREEDOM was a good horse on the level and has run 2 nice races over hurdles but has unseated once. He may just be better in time when he knows a bit more about the game. UBI ACE is the selection.
NAP - Burke's rock
NB - Ubi ace
happy punting
12:35 Lingfield - You may be asking why im tipping a horse in a Maiden at Lingfield on a Saturday, but this race is actually where my NAP of the day comes from.
BURKE'S ROCK was very unlucky last time out (which was her first run) when she was badly hampered when about to turn for home at the same course. Hayley Turner was the Pilot that day and after the incident she nursed him home to which he seemed to be staying on nicely under hands and heels. She wont need to improve too much for her first run to land this competition. YAJBER looks a nice type and has a bit more experience than the others but may just be playing for places. IMTITHAL came second at 66/1 in her first start at Lingfield and the jockey booking is very positive in Kieran Fallon whereas BORDONI hasnt seen a racecourse yet and could be anything (a Sadler's Wells horse). But im siding with BURKE'S ROCK today after an encouraging maiden.
2:05 Musselburgh - KIE is exposed and disappointed majorly when failing to carry a penalty at Kempton last time, however whether there is a horse like Ranjaan in this field is debatable. The second in that race has come out and failed to boost the form so Donald Mccain's charge may be worth swerving today. UNCLE BRYN finished 2 lengths behind our selection today but was getting weight from him and shouldn't reverse the form with CREEKSIDE. John Ferguson's horse was a very useful animal on the flat rated a highest of 104, he didnt exactly win his maiden like a world beater but he did it nicely and should take all the beating today.
3:10 Musselburgh - Tipping in these races this close to Cheltenham is a difficult thing to do with trainers maybe trying to keep their horses weight down. DE BOITRON falls into this category as i have no doubt Ferdy Murphy will have the Grand Annual in mind at the Festival. SILK DRUM may be being aimed at Aintree again. SAFARI ADVENTURES is sure to make sure there is a gallop to this race but may find one or two a bit fast for him at the end of the race. KOSTA BRAVA runs of a very low weight however his jumping does need to improve considerably if he is going to land this prize. SANTA'S SON is another that is going to ensure there is no hanging around here but may not be good enough to beat a few of these but was running nicely when coming down at Haydock. LIGHTENING ROD was second to Sprinter Sacre, he was beaten by 24 lengths but was heavily eased when beaten (around 3 lengths down at the last). He unseated last time out but his jumping is usually sound enough. ULTIMATE has been tried at a higher level but may not be suited by how the race is run today. The selection for this race is Tony Carroll's GRACCHUS who was just having his first run for him when second at Warwick. Lee Edwards takes 3 off today and this looks like one to definitely be on the right side of. A winner three times in Ireland at Tipperary, Leopardstown and Cork, today could be the day he opens his account in England.
3:45 Musselburgh - The last selection today is one of the strongest bets of the day. UBI ACE won a competitive Handicap at Sandown a while back on Tingle Creek day and was far from disgraced behind Celestial Halo when 3rd last time out. Looks sure to run another strong race today and would be no surprise to see him win. PALAWI is a nice horse and won here last time out, however a 9 pound rise should account for him. DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN loves it round here and stands every chance however i get the feeling he runs his best races on soft ground. STORMY WEATHER won last time out and ran a nice race in the fighting fifth for a long way, but he seems to find winning difficult and may be worth avoiding today. KOUP DE KANON ran well at Cheltenham last time and it would be no surprise to see him go close today. CRY OF FREEDOM was a good horse on the level and has run 2 nice races over hurdles but has unseated once. He may just be better in time when he knows a bit more about the game. UBI ACE is the selection.
NAP - Burke's rock
NB - Ubi ace
happy punting
Saturday, 4 February 2012
Not So Super Saturday
With all National Hunt meetings in England and Wales abandoned today the attention turns to the all weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield. However Fairyhouse provide us with some National Hunt action with some exciting horses on show, none more so than Rathlin who looks to land his second Novice Chase and is odds on to do so. Im going to be providing an Each Way Lucky 15 today with a mix of the two disciplines.
4:45 Fairyhouse - Grey Soldier is the selection for this race, a very promising Novice Hurdler a few years ago but is yet to sparkle over fence, he is still relatively young and there may just be a bit of slight improvement to come. Davy Russell gets the leg up today which can only be viewed as a positive, Yeoman is the main danger to the selection off a low weight.
2:35 Fairyhouse - Another Gordon Elliot runner that i excpect a big run from, Davy Condon is on board this time, the horse is called Szabo's Destiny who unseated his pilot last time when favourite, however is usually a sound enough jumper and in my eyes is the one that could beat the Mullins horse. Note that he also wins on bottomless ground as well.
3:00 Lingfield - Titan Triumph has been running nicely as of late without managing to get his head in front, now rated 80 but when younger won a class 2 off of a rating of 91. Admittedly he probably has lost a bit of his sparkle as he is an 8 year old but it does look as though he is set to run another good race this afternoon. The trainer doesnt have many runners however he has been in great form with his last four runners coming 4212, if they arent encouraging enough then i dont know what is.
3:15 Wolverhampton - My NAP of the day is Archie Rice, not much of a price at 5/2 but has hit a real rich vein of form lately, it seems he only wants to do his winning at today's course after being soundly beaten at Lingfield then winning at Wolverhampton last time out when unfancied. Ryan Clark who takes 3 pounds off is a more than useful apprentice and i'd be very disappointed were he not to get home in front today.
NAP - Archie Rice
NB - Szabo's Destiny
Also try Chjimes in the 2:30 at Lingfield
happy punting as always
4:45 Fairyhouse - Grey Soldier is the selection for this race, a very promising Novice Hurdler a few years ago but is yet to sparkle over fence, he is still relatively young and there may just be a bit of slight improvement to come. Davy Russell gets the leg up today which can only be viewed as a positive, Yeoman is the main danger to the selection off a low weight.
2:35 Fairyhouse - Another Gordon Elliot runner that i excpect a big run from, Davy Condon is on board this time, the horse is called Szabo's Destiny who unseated his pilot last time when favourite, however is usually a sound enough jumper and in my eyes is the one that could beat the Mullins horse. Note that he also wins on bottomless ground as well.
3:00 Lingfield - Titan Triumph has been running nicely as of late without managing to get his head in front, now rated 80 but when younger won a class 2 off of a rating of 91. Admittedly he probably has lost a bit of his sparkle as he is an 8 year old but it does look as though he is set to run another good race this afternoon. The trainer doesnt have many runners however he has been in great form with his last four runners coming 4212, if they arent encouraging enough then i dont know what is.
3:15 Wolverhampton - My NAP of the day is Archie Rice, not much of a price at 5/2 but has hit a real rich vein of form lately, it seems he only wants to do his winning at today's course after being soundly beaten at Lingfield then winning at Wolverhampton last time out when unfancied. Ryan Clark who takes 3 pounds off is a more than useful apprentice and i'd be very disappointed were he not to get home in front today.
NAP - Archie Rice
NB - Szabo's Destiny
Also try Chjimes in the 2:30 at Lingfield
happy punting as always
Thursday, 2 February 2012
Selections For Today
One really strong selection today and also in a treble. The only National hunt action comes from Clonmel in Ireland today after Towcester and Wincanton fell victim to the weather.
The Nap of the day comes in the 2:40 Novice Hurdle, being boring and siding with the favourite here but FOLSOM BLUE really should not be beat. If you saw his last run he made some very good novices look very average when beating Star Neuville by nine and a half lengths on the bridle. Despite it being a strong race today the selection is an improving horse and there could even be more to come from him.
The horses to put in a treble with are COOLDINE and IMMEDIATE RESPONSE. The first selection won the RSA back in 2009 but has been out of sorts as of late. I have a feeling that the 5 pounds he is getting from The Midnight Club and that could just be enough to return to winning ways. Immediate Response has been off the track for a long time so may need the run, but you can bet your bottom dollar that Willie Mullins will have him fit.
The Nap of the day comes in the 2:40 Novice Hurdle, being boring and siding with the favourite here but FOLSOM BLUE really should not be beat. If you saw his last run he made some very good novices look very average when beating Star Neuville by nine and a half lengths on the bridle. Despite it being a strong race today the selection is an improving horse and there could even be more to come from him.
The horses to put in a treble with are COOLDINE and IMMEDIATE RESPONSE. The first selection won the RSA back in 2009 but has been out of sorts as of late. I have a feeling that the 5 pounds he is getting from The Midnight Club and that could just be enough to return to winning ways. Immediate Response has been off the track for a long time so may need the run, but you can bet your bottom dollar that Willie Mullins will have him fit.
Name and Shame!
In Recent days I have mentioned a name and shame blog is upcoming about the bookmaker Betfred, today is the day i finally write it.
Ex Jockey and current commentator Hayley Moore has been placing bets in the Horsham chain of Betfred, it appears that now even though legal for her to place a bet the manager of the chain has a problem with it. Everytime she places a bet the cashier has to contact the head office of Betfred to authorize the bet, they have gone as far as putting her picture behind the counter! This has come out of a Bookmaker that calls up trainers about their runners to ask about their chances, why should they have the upper hand on the punter? All i can say to Betfred is stop being pathetic and treat her as every other punter. Rant Over (leave your comments about the situation and what you personally think as obviously Betfred are well within their rights)
The past few days have boosted my bank account nicely starting the day of my last blog, Hopefully some of you got on the Sammy Spiderman and Storm Survivor double. But the bet i am going to talk about is the Paul Nicholls treble at Taunton.
It all started with a horse with high hopes after finishing 4 lengths behind Pour Moi on the flat. He did the job nicely but you couldnt argue that he was impressive after landing hind legs first over 7 out of the 8 hurdles. Excuses can be made for him though in that it was his first run over Hurdles and he wouldnt have experienced anything like Taunton that day after running at Saint-Cloud. Still i wouldnt be jumping at the 14/1 offered for the Triumph at the moment, but i do hope to see another run in him before the festival.
A horse that i couldnt have been more impressed with was Ex Fred Winter winner Sanctuaire who had his first outing over fences. It's no secret that he can sometimes disgrace himself at the start which looked like he had that in the back of his mind, but soon consented to jump off ahead of the field. Whether Ruby wanted him as far ahead as he was is another question as he pulled like a train and took half a circuit to settle. You could have been forgiven for thinking Sanctuaire would stop out in front, but he had other ideas. Instead of stopping he opened up and went on to score by 40 lengths. Chasing seemed to bring the best out of as he was almost too brave at every fence. Quotes came in immediately for the Arkle from 16/1 up to 25/1 and looks a decent enough each way bet. Paul Nicholls has said however that he may bypass Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead so just keep your eye on him.
Ted Spread is a horse i have liked from the flat and has failed to shine like you would expect over hurdles, however he was in a handicap for the first time this week and he won it on the bridle without Ruby having to press any panic buttons. I'd like to see him go for the Fred Winter personally but im not sure Paul Nicholls is even considering that option as he seems fairly set on going to the Triumph hurdle with Ted Spread.
Let me know what you guys think. Big bet of the day coming up in the next blog
happy punting!
Ex Jockey and current commentator Hayley Moore has been placing bets in the Horsham chain of Betfred, it appears that now even though legal for her to place a bet the manager of the chain has a problem with it. Everytime she places a bet the cashier has to contact the head office of Betfred to authorize the bet, they have gone as far as putting her picture behind the counter! This has come out of a Bookmaker that calls up trainers about their runners to ask about their chances, why should they have the upper hand on the punter? All i can say to Betfred is stop being pathetic and treat her as every other punter. Rant Over (leave your comments about the situation and what you personally think as obviously Betfred are well within their rights)
The past few days have boosted my bank account nicely starting the day of my last blog, Hopefully some of you got on the Sammy Spiderman and Storm Survivor double. But the bet i am going to talk about is the Paul Nicholls treble at Taunton.
It all started with a horse with high hopes after finishing 4 lengths behind Pour Moi on the flat. He did the job nicely but you couldnt argue that he was impressive after landing hind legs first over 7 out of the 8 hurdles. Excuses can be made for him though in that it was his first run over Hurdles and he wouldnt have experienced anything like Taunton that day after running at Saint-Cloud. Still i wouldnt be jumping at the 14/1 offered for the Triumph at the moment, but i do hope to see another run in him before the festival.
A horse that i couldnt have been more impressed with was Ex Fred Winter winner Sanctuaire who had his first outing over fences. It's no secret that he can sometimes disgrace himself at the start which looked like he had that in the back of his mind, but soon consented to jump off ahead of the field. Whether Ruby wanted him as far ahead as he was is another question as he pulled like a train and took half a circuit to settle. You could have been forgiven for thinking Sanctuaire would stop out in front, but he had other ideas. Instead of stopping he opened up and went on to score by 40 lengths. Chasing seemed to bring the best out of as he was almost too brave at every fence. Quotes came in immediately for the Arkle from 16/1 up to 25/1 and looks a decent enough each way bet. Paul Nicholls has said however that he may bypass Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead so just keep your eye on him.
Ted Spread is a horse i have liked from the flat and has failed to shine like you would expect over hurdles, however he was in a handicap for the first time this week and he won it on the bridle without Ruby having to press any panic buttons. I'd like to see him go for the Fred Winter personally but im not sure Paul Nicholls is even considering that option as he seems fairly set on going to the Triumph hurdle with Ted Spread.
Let me know what you guys think. Big bet of the day coming up in the next blog
happy punting!
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