Sue Smith Appreciation Day 2

Well Frankel couldn't have been more impressive on his return and is now rated 138. This just confirms his status as the best racehorse in the world and begs the question, who can beat him? Thought Worthy was given a mention on the blog and he won at 15/8 though I hardly count that as a tip worthy price. The main selection was the Richard Hannon trained Poetic Lord and it was clear he was severely lacking in race fitness but showed up well for a long way. He will be one to stick with throughout the season and should go very well next time out.

But in more recent times I have been flying however that means nothing as they have not been on the blog. On Monday Tony McCoy landed a four timer at Newton Abbot which paid well in a Lucky 15. But for today as you can tell it's a Sue Smith Day. On we go.

6:30 - Sedgefield - Fill The Power - One that could never get competitive at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett but earlier in the season had some smart form. The main part of that form is when he landed a grade 2 at Newcastle in November, he went from the front the whole way that time and galloped on relentlessly. He was considered good enough to contest in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. He was probably outclassed that day and also got a bit stuck in the mud. This looks to be an ideal race for him to open up his account over fences, chasing looks set to be his game in relation to his size. As long as he can jump a fence he will take all the beating today in a possibly weak looking chase. Ryan Mania takes the ride who is the number one jockey for the Sue Smith yard.

7:30 - Sedgefield - Alba King - Last time out his hat trick attempt was flawed when possibly the ground went against him, he still ran a blinder that day to come second. This race looks a lot easier for him today and the ground will be much more in his favour. He is up 20 pounds for his last win but ran into a fast improving horse in Hi Dancer last time, he was still clear of the rest of the field that day. With Jonathan England taking off a more than valuable 7 pounds he is taken to make amends for fluffing his lines last time with a win today.

8:00 - Sedgefield - Kent Street - He didn't get too far on his chasing debut after flying the first fence then being too brave at the second and landing on the fence. Ryan Mania made an outstanding recovery when at one point being on one side of his mount. He regained balance but the saddle had slipped right round at that point but there was no point in continuing and pulled up before the 3rd. He will have learnt a lot from that outing and chasing does look his game. Shane Byrne gets the leg up on him today which is a huge bonus as he rides chasers probably better than he rides hurdlers. In my mind he is up there with the best at presenting a horse to a fence. Hopefully i'm not tempting fate here.

9:00 - Sedgefield - Grate Fella - Only one appearance to his name but it was a more than encouraging one when finishing third at Market Rasen. He should come on leaps and bounds for that experience and should take some beating in this field at a decent enough price. Even though the Donald McCain horse looks a worthy opponent today and these two should have it between them. Should be thereabouts when it counts on the line.

Also one more mention before I close up today's blog, Jason Maguire has two rides up at Sedgefield today and both of them should win and could pay a nice double.

6:00 - Sud Pacifique - He was considered good enough to take on Grumeti on his hurdling debut but went out like a light when quietly fancied by connections. He will be much better for that run and this highly rated flat performer should take all the beating in this race. It would be a shock were he defeated today in the opener.

7:00 - Beeves - he won his first race under rules nicely but on bottomless ground at Hexham, this is a different kettle of fish today but the result should be no different. Before joining the McCain yard he was already a Point to Point winner so should have no troubles on his hurdling debut here.

That is it for today. As always Happy Punting and I hope you get some winners. 

Grand National Day

Today is the Aintree Grand National, the day where the majority of people in the country get involved in a horse race and lay down their 50p each way bets. As ever its a ridiculously tough thing to predict and finding the winner will pay handsomely. Each year I draw a table the night before and judge horses on 8 areas, last year my table helped me find BallaBriggs (1st) Dont Push it (3rd) State of Play (4th) and Surface to air (8th). If i had the same results today as i did last year i will be happy, but these areas are.
- have they won on the ground?
- have they won a race over 3m 2f or further
- have they won a race shorter than 3m 2f
- have they won over 2 and a half miles
- have they won over the national fences
- have they won in the last 2 years
- have they won with the weight on their back today?
- have they won with today's jockey on board

Only one horse fills the criteria today and that is last years winner BallaBriggs.

Horses that fill 7 of the areas :- Black Apalachi, Chicago Grey, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker, Always Right, Mon Mome, Killyglen and Hello Bud

Horses that fill 6 of the areas :- Synchronised, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Deep Purple, Seabass, Cappa Bleu, Organisedconfusion, Vic Venturi, Neptune Equester

Horses that fill 5 of the areas :- Calgary Bay, Junior, Tatenen, According to Pete, On His Own, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, Postmaster, Giles Cross, Midnight Haze.

Horses that fill 4 of the areas :- Planet of Sound, Rare Bob, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, In Compliance, Viking Blond

None fill 3 areas

One horse fills 2 areas :- Becauseicouldntsee

With that all said and done the 4 horses for this year - BallaBriggs, Black Appalachi, Neptune Collonges and Killyglen. Chicago Grey should also run a big race.

I backed Neptune Collonges after his Sandown exploits earlier this year, and after his second at Haydock it occurred to me that he doesnt actually know how to run a bad race and is also a very classy performer. The only areas of my research he missed out on was that he hadnt won over the course (because he hasnt run over the course) and the jockey hasnt won on him (Darryl Jacob hasnt actually ridden him before)

Other bets today are...

1:45 - Aland Islands (very strong each way bet)
2:15 - If you really need a bet in this id go for Sprinter Sacre to beat Australia Day
2:50 - Zarkandar
3:25 - On Borrowed Wings (I cant stress how much of a hard race Chapoturgeon had at Cheltenham, i was watching him after the race and they were having to hold him up afterwards, cant see him winning)
4:15 - Neptune Collonges
5:05 - Dee Ee Williams
5:35 - Population

I hope everyone has a great National day and I hope my blog has helped you find a winner or two to pay for your nights out and weekends.
Happy Punting Everyone
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