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Wednesday, 17 September 2014

National Hunt Horses To Follow 14/15

The flat season is almost at an end and with the National Hunt season rapidly approaching we turn our attentions the the other code. Below I have compiled a list of 15 horses that I feel are worth following throughout the coming season and ones that will more than pay their way.

I have also divided them into different divisions with some more confident than others as you will see, however I have tried to limit each section to two or three horses, but that is easier said than done!

Before we get into the horses to follow I will just have to promote a few interviews I conducted on behalf of BetRacingNation. Among the links below you will find an interview with Jamie Moore who gave us the latest on Sire De Grugy and the rest of the string, some of which you shall spot in our list of horses. Nick Scholfield also gave us the low down on some of Paul Nicholls' string including one of last year's top novices Irving. Last but not least I spoke to up and coming northern trainer Rebecca Menzies who introduced us to her stable and some of her star horses this season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMHrsidJZzM - Jamie Moore interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZw0iOTWVR8 - Nick Scholfield interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2SjQn6xyOE Rebecca Menzies interview


Now onto the all important horses to follow for this season.


Hurdlers

Faugheen - 6 - OR 158

We start off our list with one of the more obvious ones in the shape of last year's Neptune winner Faugheen, who looks to be targeted at the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

Faugheen - Photo courtesy of Dan Heap
He answered all his critics last year despite still taking a few liberties in the jumping department, most notably when taking the third and second last hurdles with him at Cheltenham. He was much better at Punchestown when stepping down to two miles, and it has long been my theory that his jumping improves when he is allowed to set a strong pace, which will be needed if he wants to stake his claims in Grade One events over two miles.

In recent years the Neptune has been a similarly successful source of future Champion Hurdle horses than that of the Supreme, with Rock On Ruby and The New One flying the flag. Faugheen however looks to have a lot more speed than the aforementioned duo, but also has enough stamina to win over three miles, which is an extremely rare combination and quite a potent one at that.

With the likes of Vautour and Un De Sceaux going chasing, and Hurricane Fly stepping up in trip it seems that Faugheen is the only one to fly the flag in the two mile division for the dominant Willie Mullins. He is generally a 5/1 chance for the Champion Hurdle but in my mind as long as he gets there he will be winning, famous last words eh!!


Beat That - 6 - OR 154

Number two on our hurdlers list is a bit more of a tentative one, not because he lacks ability but because he may still end up chasing. At this moment in time he seems to be staying hurdling but the decision largely revolves around More Of That and if he tackles the big obstacles.

More Of That was obviously very impressive when winning the World Hurdle last season, but I wouldn't be put off of Beat That when taking him on. I first saw Nicky Henderson's inmate at Ascot last year and without being rude he really didn't look anything special, so I was sufficiently shocked when he bolted up by 10 lengths. Sandown was the next port of call and with that came his first
Beat That at Punchestown - Photo courtesy of Dan Heap
attempt in Graded company, visually he looked much more forward that day and had muscled up nicely. However it didn't quite go to plan after a bad mistake at the last left him in third and without enough time to regain his momentum on testing ground.

After a break just short of 5 months he came back at Aintree and looked a completely different animal when defeating Cole Harden by four lengths with 25 lengths back to the rest. He again looked to have muscled up a lot and improved again to beat the exciting Don Poli at Punchestown by half a length.

There are two things worth noting about Beat That, firstly that he looks an out and out three miler and he remains unbeaten over the trip in two Grade One's so far. The latter and more important factor is that he seems to be improving with time as last season proved so I can only dream of how good he may be this season...

I have included him in the hurdlers section as that is where I feel he would show his best form, but that doesn't mean I don't think he would take to fences. In fact I think he would make a very good chaser, but he is so slick over his hurdles that it would be a waste to not give him a season out of novice company over timber. If he were to go Novice chasing then he would make into a live RSA hope, but we will cross that bridge if it ever arises.


Chasers


Djakadam - 5 - OR 147

Willie Mullins has amazingly never had a winner in the Gold Cup but has filled the runner up position twice in the last two years with Sir Des Champs and On His Own. He may have a nice one on his hands here with the progressive Djakadam who was handled carefully last year when only running three times.

Djakadam looks to stamp his class on the 3 mile division
On his first outing and chasing debut last season he beat the highly thought of Si C'etait Vrai and the ill fated but classy Minsk in good style. He then stepped up in trip to two miles and five furlongs and took the even bigger scalp of Bright New Dawn when landing a Grade Two. During those two race he was allowed to receive weight all round from his rivals as he is still only a five year old, so things will be tougher this season.


On his third and most recent chase start he travelled to Cheltenham to contest the JLT Novice Chase which I was firmly against. In my mind he was too young to tackle the older horses on such a big stage when he would only be receiving a pound in weight. Despite falling four out I was pleasantly surprised with his performance as he jumped and travelled beautifully and was still in with a chance before coming down.

Things will get decidedly tougher for him this season as he takes on horses out of novice company, but he will also be taking them on without large weight allowances. One thing to counter that argument is that he is a big horse and will have grown into himself a bit more over the summer. I mentioned the Gold Cup earlier on, but in truth that may come a season too early and be a more feasible target in 2016, but he wouldn't go unfancied this time around.



Next Sensation - 7 - OR 147

Next Sensation will be a name that everyone remembers for the wrong reasons after getting caught on the run in at Cheltenham last year in the Grand Annual. What made his performance all the more spectacular was the fact that he was 15 lengths clear at the top of the hill with everything else in trouble, however his forceful tactics meant he paid the price up the hill.

After Cheltenham he went to Aintree and Michael Scudamore will be the first one to admit that it was a mistake to send him there when finishing fifth behind Balder Succes. That doesn't mean he isn't exciting for the coming season, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the two mile division and there is room for one to improve onto the scene.

Next Sensation before his Cheltenham heroics
Next Sensation made great strides towards the top level last year and started by winning a lowly rated event at Plumpton with the minimum of fuss. Two runs later after a win and an uncharacteristic unseat he was ready to announce himself on the scene for Cheltenham handicaps and did so at Doncaster in no uncertain fashion. His main asset is his lightning fast jumping that could make even the best horse look slovenly over his fences, he showed that at Cheltenham when forcing all of his rivals off the bridle by the top of the hill.

As for this season however, the handicap chase that Sire De Grugy won last year at Chepstow could be an ideal start for Next Sensation off a mark of 150. He was beaten at Cheltenham off an eight pound lower mark, but with Tom Scudamore back in the saddle and less forceful tactics, a win should be well within his abilities.

The question I keep asking myself is if he could cut it outside of handicap company and take on some bigger names in the sport, I see no reason why he can't continue that improvement. However I will say that his running style may make him vulnerable, much like the ill fated Sanctuaire a couple of seasons ago. Despite that Next Sensation is an intriguing entry to the list and is expected to keep progressing into a big force among the two milers.



Novice Chasers


Chris Pea Green 5 - OR 142 (Hurdles)
Chris Pea Green will go chasing

The first Novice Chaser on the list comes from a local stable to me with Chris Pea Green from Gary Moore's yard. He has always been one that looked as if he will improve for a fence, but he was more than useful over the smaller obstacles including a seventh to Our Conor in the Triumph Hurdle. After his juvenile career ended he made up into a nice handicap hurdler and ended last season with a mark of 145 after a good third in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He has been off since that run in February which is likely a positive as he was in need of a break after a fairly demanding campaign, but it will also have given him time to mature a bit more for this season.

Over hurdles he was a bit short of top class and it is likely to be the same story over fences but he should be winning a few novice chases along the way. For a while I have considered Chris Pea Green as a perfect horse for the Centenary at Cheltenham which is the handicap for novices on day one of the Festival.

He boasted a high level of form last season including a staying on fourth in the Ladbroke Hurdle and a good seventh in the Betfair Hurdle behind Splash Of Ginge. Unfortunately he was one of the unlucky ones that kept on running well without winning which resulted in him climbing the handicap without success. I fully expect him to improve past his hurdles mark after turning his attention to the bigger obstacles, but it has to be noted that he prefers ground with ease in it, but he is still taken to rise high in the novice ranks.


Gilgamboa - 6 - OR 139 (Hurdles)

Enda Bolger is well known for being a master of cross country races in the past, but he could have a high classed individual here with Gilgamboa. Despite being a six year old he has only graced the track five times but has made huge strides on each appearance and has won three of those.

Gilgamboa (Near Side) looks a lovely chasing prospect
On the breeding front you would think that his future lies over further than the two miles he is accustomed to running over, but he has shown that he has enough speed for the minimum trip. The furthest he has been tried over is two and a half miles so far which came on bottomless ground, but he won that nicely off a handicap mark of 120. He was then dropped back to two miles for the Boylesports.com Hurdle which is considered a key Cheltenham trial, and he duly obliged off a eight pound higher mark of 128.

His biggest task to date came at the Cheltenham Festival in the Supreme Novices behind Vautour who ran out an emphatic winner. His finishing place of thirteenth doesn't exactly install confidence, but there is more than meets the eye in this case. The race was just beginning to heat up and Gilgamboa was travelling well enough on the inside under AP McCoy. His race was ended at this point when he made a horrendous mistake at the second last hurdle and in truth he did well not to fall, but from that point onward he was tenderly handled.

It was announced soon after that he will be going Novice Chasing this year which is understandable as he is a big strapping individual. Despite that one mistake at Cheltenham he was always a good jumper of a hurdle but shaped as if he would improve for a fence and likely a step up in trip.


Ubak - 6

Ubak is a horse that we haven't seen for a while after suffering an injury at home last year, but he is back and preparing for a novice chasing campaign.

Ubak will return to action over fences this season
The last time we saw Ubak on a racecourse was at the Punchestown Festival when just edged out by Un Atout who has also been off for a season since. That came off the back of a disappointing performance at Cheltenham in the Neptune (despite being 100/1) and a victory in the Grade 2 Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree. He had clearly taken a step forward on his last two performances, but the exciting thing is that he promises to be even better over three miles with fences in the way.

He was highly tried when he came over to England from France and chased home My Tent Or Yours and Taquin Du Seuil on his debut in this country. I recently got a chance to conduct an interview with Jamie Moore on behalf of BetRacingNation and he listed Ubak as his horse to follow and gave a glowing report of the Novice Chaser.

Jamie Moore - "I think he is going to be a very very good horse, apart from Sire De Grugy he is definitely the best horse in the yard"



Blakemount 6 - OR 140 (Hurdles)

The last Novice Chaser on our list this season is a northern representative in the shape of Blakemount from the yard of Sue Smith. He made great strides in Novice Hurdles last season before disappointingly being confirmed as a non runner on the morning at Cheltenham in March.

Blakemount (right) battles with Urban Hymn
Despite only winning twice in five attempts last season he kept himself in high company including a close third to Ballyalton who chased home Faugheen at Cheltenham. Earlier on in the season he had got off the mark at Wetherby when beating Sir Mangan (Now rated 125) with the minimum of fuss before stepping up in class. He bumped into Ballyalton and Oscar Rock on that occasion but was by no means embarrassed and if anything was closing the gap late on in the day.

His most promising run however came at Doncaster last time out when just losing out in an almighty battle with Urban Hymn in a Grade Two over and extended 3 miles. This answered many questions for me as both of his victories had come in a more emphatic manner, but he showed tremendous battling qualities on this occasion despite just being beaten.

He has always been a brilliant jumper of a hurdle but has shaped that he would be even better over a fence, as is the way with a lot of Sue Smith's horses. The only time that his jumping has suffered is when restrained and not allowed to lead and as a result got himself caught behind horses. If he is allowed to do his own thing out in front then Blakemount could make into a strong force among the staying novices this season.


Novice Hurdlers



Vigil - 5

I have to confess that the Novice Hurdlers this season don't have me particularly excited which I'm sure will change soon enough, but Vigil is one that stuck out to me in Bumpers last season.

Vigil improved last season and may do so again this year
He ran well on debut before getting a bit stuck in the mud after the eventual winner had kicked away and got first run, despite that he ran on well and the winner has since made a successful start over hurdles for Tony Martin. He built on that run with a very eye-catching victory over two miles at Leopardstown in a good race under Robbie McNamara. There was a lot to like about that victory with the most taking part being the strength with which he travelled and put the race to bed so decisively on bad ground.

Next stop for him was Cheltenham in the Champion Bumper where he once again ran an admirable race but could do no better than fifth behind Silver Concorde. As usual he travelled into the race really well and still had a chance with a furlong to go, but when really asked he just lacked a bit of speed late in the day before plugging on. With that said he has looked a horse who will thrive over further in time and could be one to consider for the Neptune this season.



Jollyallan - 5

Our second and last horse to fall under the Novice Hurdlers category is Harry Fry's Jollyallan who looked a lovely prospect last season and is held in high esteem by his connections.

Jollyallan (Third Right) Will improve this season
He started off in a Bumper at Wincanton when demolishing an admittedly an average looking field, however he was 15 lengths clear of the runner up who in turn was 11 lengths clear of the rest. His exploits that day caught the eye of a certain JP McManus who purchased the Gelding and immediately stepped him up in class. That step up in class came at the Punchestown Festival where he finished sixth to Shaneshill, it was clear that he would need more time than the more prominent of his rivals though. Despite never looking like troubling the leaders he made a lovely sweeping move before turning for home which hints that there is sufficient ability there and as I say, he will have improved for the summer break and should hold his own this season.

As for his targets, your guess is as good as mine but Harry Fry has hinted that he will aim to make his reappearance in November and go from there. He also recently said in an interview with Racing FM that ultimately he will be a chaser instead of being an out and out hurdler, which is understandable. I would still expect him to make into a nice hurdler and win his share of races though and he looks one to go to war with this season.


Handicappers


Urbain De Sivola - 6 - OR 138 (Hurdles) 135 (Chase)

I have a sneaky suspicion that Urbain De Sivola is the best horse in training but he just doesn't want to be, but in all seriousness he is a very talented horse with a few temperament issues. He couldn't be in many better hands to help him achieve the best of his ability than with the Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls.

Urbain De Sivola is quirky but talented
All his quirks came into one when he was left around 20 lengths behind at the start of the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, but somehow he had negotiated his was into the front four by the home turn. He jumped really well at the back of the field but was always facing an uphill battle and probably made too much ground too quickly at the wrong time. With all that taken into account he has put in a mighty performance, especially considering that the winner, Don Poli is being aimed at some big races this season.

It is likely that he will go chasing sooner rather than later and it would make sense to do so with a three pound lower mark of 135 over the bigger obstacles. One thing is for certain though, Sam Twiston-Davies will have to be at his fantastic best if Urbain De Sivola is to return to the winners enclosure.



Via Sundown - 6 - OR 140

The second and final horse to fall under the handicappers title is a lightly raced six year old from Gary Moore's yard called Via Sundown. He has found the winners enclosure three times from five attempts so far and as a result has amassed a rating of 140, which could still be lenient.

Via Sundown (left) fends off Benvolio (right)
He was last seen when beating his elders in Benvolio and Lamb Or Cod who are in no right superstars, but in the same breath are good yardsticks. His jumping was very good on the whole that day and showed tremendous battling qualities to see off Benvolio who is a thorough stayer. Before that he ran a poor race in better company behind Corrin Wood and Black Thunder, but he has since proved that to be nothing more than a blip. They came after two demolition jobs at Lingfield in easier races but he proved more than capable in better races and should improve again this season.

I have dubbed Via Sundown as the new Vino Griego which is some title to hold, but in truth he will probably stay further than his stablemate and could develop into a type for some of the smaller Nationals. He quietly went about his way last season but remains a six year old with plenty of scope and should make his mark on a bigger stage this time around.


Pinerolo - 7 - OR 133

Pinerolo has sat in my tracker for around three years with the same comment beside his name of 'wait until he goes chasing', my patience was tested but finally rewarded last year in a big way.

Pinerolo progressed rapidly last year and looks a nice stayer
There was one point in his career when is was doubtful that he would ever race again after going badly wrong at Carlisle over hurdles. But after nine months off he made an encouraging reappearance at Sedgefield over hurdles which showed the fire still burned bright in him. His chasing debut came over a distance far too short but showed us that he was a solid jumper and showed tremendous promise to go forward with.

On his second start over fences he bumped into Indian Castle and Many Clouds who both went to Cheltenham with fancied chances in their respected races. Connections then decided to utilise a handicap mark at Carlisle where he duly obliged by 18 lengths on his first try over a trip in excess of three miles. For that he was raised 15 pounds which caused a drop back into novice company where he won again although not in as much of an emphatic style. He was forced to dig deep on that occasion and in all honesty he didn't look like winning until after the last fence which is when his stamina kicked in. His latest two outings came on faster ground and are worth forgetting in a hurry which is why he pulled up twice at the end of a busy season.

His love for softer ground may limit what races he can go to with a realistic chance and rules out the majority of Nationals and he may not have the class for a Welsh National. Will all of those ruled out he would be a perfect horse for something like an Eider Chase at Newcastle which he should be able to make all the running. Regardless where they go, Pinerolo remains an interesting stayer for this season.


Dark Horses


Puisque Tu Pars - 4


The exciting Puisque Tu Pars
I understand that this list may have a few Gary Moore horses thrown in, but he has some nice horses for the season ahead and Puisque Tu Pars is another of them. He could be one that is put under the Novice Hurdlers title but I feel he is more at home in this department, but just to reiterate, he will be a Novice this season.

He made a very likable racecourse debut when victorious at Newbury over an extended mile and a half and used all his stamina reserves to gain that maiden success. The ground was pretty testing that day and that could be key to him as he never does anything flashy but will always do enough to grind it out. He was thrown in the deep end next time out at Aintree in a Grade Two but met more than his fair share of trouble, but stayed on nicely at the end when he finally got into the clear. That run is best
forgotten and he was unlucky to bump into a nice horse of Charlie Longsdon's last time out at Fontwell, which wouldn't be his track over a mile and six furlongs but it would seem that he was caught for a bit of speed that day.

He will definitely be a chaser in time however he still looks a horse that can do some damage over hurdles as long as he has progressed over the summer. With all that taken into account the Challow Hurdle at Newbury may be aiming high but could be a good target for the season with soft ground all but assured.



Fine Words - 6 - OR 109

A first entry for Alan King now with Fine Words who is one that you may not know too much about, but I promise you that in the future you will hear plenty of him. Anyone that has seen him will know exactly why I say that as he is a beautiful looking individual and has plenty of ability to go with it.

Fine Words leading his string at home - Photo courtesy of
Dan Heap
I first noticed him when standing at the pre-parade ring at Kempton last November before chasing home a future Grade One winner in Captain Cutter. He is a tremendous stamp of a horse and needed last season to really grow into his huge frame, but he was slowly but surely getting the idea late last year. He finished ten lengths behind Captain Cutter which is no bad thing however he was then beaten a long way in his next two novice hurdles, although he showed good promise at Newbury which is likely to be more his track.

His latest appearance saw him be well backed at Kempton on handicap debut off a mark of 109, however things far from went to plan. He was beaten 43 lengths that day but he is much better than that performance shows and he will likely improve for a step up in trip as his sire (Alflora) also produced What A Friend and Wishfull Thinking. He will also improve for a fence but his handicap mark is low enough to be exploited early on in the season before possibly trying his hand at chasing.






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