2014 Investec Derby Preview

Australia

It seems right that we start with the long time favourite for the race and the horse who Aidan O'Brien has dubbed 'the best he has ever had' (Since that fantastic handicapper Camelot of course). Australia seemed to split the racing world right down the middle in the Guineas with one half saying he was a good thing and the other half saying he wasn't fast enough. However everyone seemed to agree with the fact that the Derby was his target for the season and he made a few friends after his encouraging third to Night Of Thunder at Newmarket. As with any member of the field, there are worries and we have to ask ourselves if the short

Australia bids to win the Derby for Aidan O'Brien for the
third successive year

price tag is a true representation of his chances.

Worry number one, the ground? He has only experienced Good to Firm and Good ground in his short but successful career so far, with rain forecast all this week he could be thrown in at the deep end on Soft ground which he has never encountered.

Worry number two, the course? Epsom is about as unique as they come regarding the personality of the track with a downhill finish and steep camber running down to the centre of the course. Many horses over the years have come with big reputations but have failed to handle the undulations and punters were left burned at short odds. Obviously the same applies to everyone and Australia looks the ideal type on breeding with his Dam (Ouija Board) and Sire (Galileo) winning over course and distance, but there has to be a slight doubt in the back of your mind as with any runner in the field. (5/4)

Geoffrey Chaucer

As always Aidan O'Brien is not single handed in the Derby as he also saddles the current second favourite in Geoffrey Chaucer who lost his unbeaten tag last time out. That tag was accumulated as a two year old when winning a couple of nice races including the Beresford Stakes (Group 2) on only his second start. But last time out was the first real test for him when taking on Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran, who both conquered him that day resulting in a finish no better than third. There were a few excuses however, one being that the ride probably wasn't Joseph's finest hour and it has to be thought that he will improve as it was only his first start this season.

All in all Geoffrey Chaucer makes up into an intriguing candidate and definitely isn't out of place here, but he will need to improve significantly to land his mark on the race, despite strong market support recently. (8/1)

Kingston Hill

Roger Varian has his best chance of a Classic winner in his still young training career here with Kingston Hill who finished eighth in the 2000 Guineas, although the longer distance should suit him. It remains to be seen how much improvement the step up in trip will bring, but he really stamped his authority on the Derby scene last year when landing the Racing Post Trophy in fantastic style, however the form of that race is hugely underwhelming. One thing that is in his favour is the weather forecast as Soft ground seems to bring out the best in him as he proved at Doncaster last season. On all known form Kingston Hill looks as if he will come up a bit short against the best of these but a placed effort certainly isn't off the cards. (9/1)

True Story

Godolphin's first representative in the race now in the shape of True Story who until his Dante flop was meant to be the big danger to Australia, after winning impresively at Newmarket in a listed race first time up this season. His Dante run left something to be desired but saying that, the form has since been franked in a big way with The Grey Gatsby winning the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly. There is also a huge doubt in my mind about his suitability to the course after not appearing overly balanced straightening up at York last time after being very keen early on. However for all you dressage fans he would perform some fantastic one time changes as he switched his lead leg every stride turning for home. For win purposes it is best to look elsewhere. (12/1)

Western Hymn

We have had the first of the Godolphin runners so now we move onto the first runner from John Gosden's yard, after stablemate Romsdal was supplemented into the race earlier in the week. William Buick however opts for the ride on Western Hymn after he justified short odds in a Group 3 at Sandown last time out on

Western Hymn in winning action at Sandown

bottomless ground. The main worry regarding his chances come after two racecourse gallops, the first being at Lingfield when he hung badly left when asked to quicken and the same happened at Epsom, however he had a work partner to limit the distance of his drift down the camber. For this reason it would be a surprise to me if Western Hymn could land a serious blow in the Derby however he looks a perfect horse for the St. Leger later in the season. (14/1)




Fascinating Rock

Fascinating Rock is definitely living up to the first part of his name as he really is a fascinating contender in the race after being awarded the race from Ebanoran last time out, with Geoffrey Chaucer back in third. The main thing to take into account about Dermot Weld's representative is that all his form his on softer ground, however judging from the way he carries himself through his races, testing ground isn't a necessity. The last point on the ground front is that he is by Fastnet Rock who's progeny can handle faster going as can horses out of the Dam, Miss Polaris who has only produced himself and hurdler Quick Jack. From that aspect it will be no problem at all and stamina doesn't look to be a bother on him, however the course will play a big part on the day and he may be one to suffer, but he doesn't look to be short on class and is definitely on for the shortlist. (14/1)

Ebanoran

John Oxx last won the Derby with the fantastic Sea The Stars, obviously Ebanoran isn't a patch on him but hold a respectable chance after running well against Fascinating Rock last time out. On that occasion Ebanoran actually passed the post first but got demoted to second place after drifting right late on into the

Fascinating Rock (Noseband), Ebanoran (Green) and
Geoffrey Chaucer (Behind)

path of the eventual winner. He showed great battling qualities that day after showing a fantastic turn of foot when making Geoffrey Chaucer look ordinary in the process. If Ebanoran can hit the front then he is a huge danger to all and he remains a very interesting runner at a big price for Saturday's race. (16/1)

Arod

Peter Chapple-Hyam threw Arod in at the deep end when finishing runner up in the Dante behind The Grey Gatsby and shaped as if the step up in trip will suit. The main worry with him is that he was still green last time out, if that happens once again at Epsom then he is in deep trouble against genuine Group One animals. He may be one who possesses a lot of talent but we may have to wait a couple of more runs to see him fulfil his full potential. (16/1)

Orchestra

Ryan Moore teamed up with Orchestra to win the same prep race at Chester that his stablemate Ruler Of The World won before victory in the Derby itself. That came over slightly further than the Derby trip but he was in need of the line from quite a way out with Romsdal closing with every stride after a troubled passage. The main worry is that you can downgrade the run quite a bit as he was gifted the rail run which is like gold dust round Chester whereas Romsdal really had to fight. For that reason Orchestra is overlooked despite Ryan Moore showing interest in the ride. (16/1)

Sudden Wonder

Now it's time for the second Godolphin runner in the shape of Sudden Wonder who needs to step up on what he has shown so far in his career, but he is more than entitled to do that. He was last seen in the Lingfield Derby Trial when I found the tactics baffling as he is a horse who has never looked a non stayer, resulting in him struggling to show a turn of foot from the back of the field. The only way Sudden Wonder could play a part in the finish of the race is if he is allowed to lead all the way and put his stamina to good use. There is a possibility that he is used as a pacemaker for True Story but even if this happens he would still have solid place claims (66/1)

Snow Sky

Snow Sky beat Sudden Wonder back into third last time out in the Lingfield Derby Trial however he did get the run of the race when settled just behind the leader. There was also a worrying time when coming down the hill preparing to turn for home as he looked slightly off balance which will show round Tattenham Corner

Snow Sky winning the Lingfield Derby Trial

if that were to happen again. It would be a bit of a shock were Snow Sky to win on Saturday in my eyes despite winning a key trial and a reversal of form with Sudden Wonder is expected. (20/1)

Romsdal

John Gosden decided it was worth supplementing Romsdal into the race earlier this week after a good staying performance when just denied by Orchestra at Chester. He has a troubled passage that day and it took a horse with Class to get close to the winner so you would fancy the placings to be reversed. Saying that he probably isn't good enough to win a Derby however like his stable mate Western Hymn, a crack at the St Leger doesn't look out of the equation. Overall he doesn't have the most obvious chance but if they go a break neck speed early on it could play into his hands as he looks a very strong stayer. (25/1)


Summary

In conclusion, it would take a very good horse to beat Australia there is no doubting, but it isn't beyond the realms of possibility. The key race to focus on could well have happened between Ebanoran and Fascinating Rock with the latter preferred to come out on top. Geoffrey Chaucer was back in third that day but would have to improve significantly to hit the frame despite have a troubled passage. Neither of the Lingfield Classic trials looked vintage but I would expect the form between Snow Sky and Sudden Wonder to be reversed as I would with Orchestra and Romsdal. There is no doubting that Western Hymn is a very good horse but I can't imagine Epsom being his cup of tea and Kingston Hill has left himself with a lot to prove after a scintillating two year old season. Arod is the only one left however as mentioned before I can't see him being forward enough to win a classic despite a good run in the Dante.

1st - Fascinating Rock
2nd - Australia
3rd - Ebanoran