Good morning/evening everyone, I hope we are all ready for one of the major weeks in the jumps racing calendar. Sandown stage two Grade One's in the Tingle Creek and Henry VIII Novices Chase this afternoon as well as Aintree having two races over the National Fences. We are also treated to good jumping cards at Wetherby and Chepstow with Wolverhampton racing on the All Weather, we are also racing in Ireland at Navan.
As always @OnTheOtherHoof have a video preview prepared as we cover the Channel 4 action from Sandown and Aintree. Joining me on the panel tonight was @Calummadell and @Adamwebb121, you can find the show via the link below, enjoy!!
OnTheOtherHoof Tingle Creek day preview
Now onto the all important selections!
1:30 Aintree - Just A Par
Not an easy task to start off today's selections as we begin with the Becher Chase which of course is the first race of the season over the National Fences. We side with Just A Par who was very highly regarded last season but never really fulfilled his potential despite a fifth in the RSA at Cheltenham. He has always looked a horse who would appreciate a stamina sapping trip and a stiff jumping test, so it was no surprise to see this race touted as an early target.
He made his return 28 days ago in the controversial Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton when originally finishing 6th but upgraded to 5th after The Young Master was disqualified. He got tired late on that day which he was entitled to do on his seasonal reappearance, but he will have to find the necessary improvement required. For that effort the handicapper has relented a further 2 pounds, which makes today's mission somewhat easier in what looks to be a fantastic renewal. He has run over fences at Aintree once before when partnered by Nick Scholfield who takes the ride today, however that was on the Mildmay course which doesn't play to his strengths at all.
As I mentioned earlier it is a tough race and the main threats to Just A Par could come in the form of Saint Are and Oscar Time. The latter chased home Ballabriggs in the 2011 Grand National and was fourth in the 2013 National, so boasts a very good course record. Saint Are is a different sort as he is a well handicapped eight year old and was ninth as a 7 year old in the 2013 Grand National. (12/1)
1:50 Sandown - Irish Saint
From a competitive race to a disappointing turn out for a Grade One with only four horses accepting the challenge in the Henry VIII Novices Chase. The field may be select however it is full of class with Paul Nicholls' doubly represented with Vibrato Valtat and the selection, Irish Saint.
Irish Saint made a brilliant start to his chasing career when beating the useful Chris Pea Green over course and distance, this will be much more of a test however. He jumped well on his fencing bow and will come on for the experience and the softer ground will suit him more than the others. Over hurdles he managed to attain a career high mark of 151 which would make him the second best on ratings in this race.
Paul Nicholls' charge also benefits by the quirks and dislikes of his rivals in this small field. For example it is unlikely that Vibrato Valtat will get a fast enough pace to be delivered on top of the line and travel into the race in his normal fashion. Dunraven Storm is the obvious pace angle, however his jumping needs to hold up in front and he may become a sitting duck to a better horse. As for Court Minstrel, well his participation must be in danger as he needs faster ground to be seen to his best. With that taken into account it could just all fall into place for Irish Saint and he is a confident selection tomorrow. (13/8)
2:05 Aintree - Mijhaar
Our next selection is a bit more left field and a few of you may scoff at it, but hear me out about his chances before dismissing him. You may remember him being a selection on the blog back at Market Rasen when disappointing under AP McCoy, but he improved for that at Cheltenham. He was seventh on that occasion in the Greatwood hurdle which may seem modest, but upon further review it is clear that he hated both ground and course. For that reason alone his effort can be upgraded after making up good ground from the home turn when last in the whole field. That supports the reason to step up in trip as on that occasion he would clearly benefit from further and on a flat track like Aintree as well. Undoubtedly the pick of his form came at the end of last season when fifth to Josses Hill over two miles back here at Aintree. He is a tentative selection today after contesting Listed and Group Three races on the level, but will need a step forward on his hurdles form today. (14/1)
3:00 Sandown - Balder Succes
Our final selection of the day comes in the form of last season's leading two mile novice chaser Balder Succes, who has a brilliant chance of landing a Grade One out of novice company today.
His main rival in the betting market is God's Own who has beaten the selection twice, although there were excuses on both occasion. At Punchestown it was clear that he engaged Champagne Fever in a battle far too early in the race and paid for it late on when God's Own claimed him. Balder Succes also tasted defeat to his long lasting rival last time out in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, but he wasn't 100% fit for his reappearance and had to give his rival weight. That is reversed today and with no obvious pace angles the race could play to Balder Succes' strengths if he can find a jumping rhythm.
There aren't many dangers outside of the top two, but Oscar Whisky ran a much improved race in the Paddy Power last time out but still has something to prove. Vukovar is another one who has promised a lot but failed to live up to expectations, he may need more of a trip but it would be no surprise to see him run well here. At a price Third Intention may be one to side with as he looked a different horse last time out when forging clear at Haydock, which is something he has never done before including when gifting a race to Captain Conan here in a Grade One. Balder Succes the one to continue his improvement through to this season. (7/2)
NAP - Irish Saint
Nb - Balder Succes
Good luck if you are having a bet tomorrow and as always, happy punting!
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