Good morning everyone, I trust you are well rested and ready for Derby Day, the day we find out if Dawn Approach can follow in the footsteps of his father. Personally I think he will stay perfectly fine and it will take a seriously good horse to beat him here today, saying that, the field is full of them. Chopin bids to become the first ever German winner but will also be the first ever German starter in the Epsom Derby in the 255 year history of the race.
I must apologise for the lateness of this blog as I have just come in from a concert at the Vogue Theatre. At 7:30 yesterday morning I woke up and logged on to twitter before work and found a competition for tickets. So I though why not and entered it, upon arrival at work I was sent a message that I had won two tickets to see Eli Young Band, a well known country band in these neck of the woods. To put it plainly they were awesome, as are most country music concerts, even if you aren't a country fan I fully recommend going to a show. They aren't all rednecks!!
Back to racing though, yesterday we had just the one winner with Gregorian for William Buick and John Gosden. However it was made nicer the fact that it was also our NAP, we also had a few places but it wasn't much to write home about. Today promises to be a tad better however, it is worth noting that Andrew Tinkler travels to Hexham for one ride (Hi Candy, 4:20). Mickael Barzalona also travels to Newcastle for one ride (Inaad, 7:10), I don't recall seeing either of them at them respective tracks ever.
One last note before we crack on, I have been writing blogs for http://pigeonscoop4.wordpress.com/ which is run for twitter users. You can next join in the fun next Monday, to play all you need to do is select 1 horse from each given race. Rules are on the website itself.
Now onto the action!
1:35 Epsom Downs - High Troja
Ed Dunlop's colt has been ultra consistent since the start of his career, with a worst placed 5th on debut which was 7 starts ago. He won last time out at Newbury, on that occasion beating Ryan Moore's mount but today he is in the saddle. Those two were clear of the third placed horse and after quickening in nice style High Troja went on to secure a half a length victory. Obviously there is the unknown quantity of if he will handle the Epsom course, but he does have his preferred ground which is a positive. In fact he has improved alot since switching to the turf from the all weather which he ran on debut and then on heavy the next two times. The strongest piece of form for High Troja was when he ran 2nd behind Mutashaded who on his second outing won a good handicap at Sandown. Raised six pounds for his last win, but that may not be enough to stop him here and the vote goes to High Troja for Ryan Moore. (9/2)
2:05 Epsom Downs - Riverboat Springs
Riverboat Springs impressed me greatly on debut at Bath as he ran green and was outpaced early on in the race. Despite that Martin Harley managed to nurse him to the front and ended up winning very easily with the reopposing Money Team back in second. Typically Mick Channon's 2 year Old's improve for their first run so it is always a bonus when they win first time up, especially in the manner of Riverboat Springs. Despite it being a competitive race the step up to 6 furlongs will most definitely suit and the jockey booking of William Buick catches the eye. Riverboat Springs can make it 2 from 2. (11/2)
2:40 Epsom Downs - St Nicholas Abbey
The Coronation Cup has become somewhat a Ballydoyle appreciation race over the years with Aidan O'Brien winning this 6 times of the last 8 running's. St Nicholas Abbey has won this the last two years as well and is clearly the one to beat after winning over in Dubai. Joseph O'Brien takes the ride again this year as a prep ready for Battle Of Marengo later on in the Derby, but to be honest it shouldn't matter who is on board. Dunaden looks the only real danger and if this were over 2 miles he'd be a certainty but they persist with this trip which is all wrong for him. It gives me no sense of pride to go for an odds on favourite but he seems fairly bullet proof, especially in this field. St Nicholas Abbey can today go one better than Warrsan by winning the race 3 consecutive times. (2/5)
3:15 Epsom Downs - Swiss Cross
Racheal Kneller put this horse up as one to follow for the year in my interview with her but he hasn't had much luck in running. She didn't have much luck herself last time as she was meant to ride but got a flat tyre on the way to the track, Paul Hanagan replaced her. Since the turn of the year he has dropped 14 pounds and is just beginning to refind some of his earlier form off a mark of 89. The job is made that much easier today with Racheal Kneller taking 5 pounds off his back and he must have a huge chance. As always the Epsom Dash is an ultra competitive race but its very hard to look away from a well handicapped horse. Swiss Cross to return at a nice price for punters. (22/1)
4:00 Epsom Downs - Dawn Approach
Like earlier it gives me no satisfaction to tip a horse who is such a short price, but Dawn Approach was so awesome in the Guineas. The main argument has been about his staying power but upon a second look at the Guineas he was a tad outpaced early on and stayed well. So his stamina isn't a great worry for me and with the challengers not looking in the same league he is a good enough price. Ballydoyle haven't really got a really strong contender this year and the main challengers may be French raider Ocovango and German raider Chopin. Jim Bolger's colt still looks much the better however and a stand out amongst three year old this season, much like Camelot last year. Dawn Approach can make it 8 from 8 here today and win the second leg of the Triple Crown. (7/4)
4:50 Epsom Downs - Cayuga
Cayuga didn't get the clearest of runs at all last time under Willie Twiston Davies but after being short of room late on he once again rallied to grab second. That was his first run since coming back from a break and definitely ran with credit posting a much improved effort. Even is comeback run is hard to knock behind the progressive Duke Of Clarence for Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. You can completely see the reasoning behind stepping him up an extra 2 furlongs to tackle a mile and a half, a trip he was unsuccessful on the all weather at Lingfield. There are no doubts about his handicap mark as Robert Tart claims 5 pounds as did Willie Twiston Davies last time, and runs off exactly the same mark. Cayuga can find the needed improvement and this son of Montjeu can grab his second career win. (17/2)
5:25 Epsom Downs - Blue Jack
There is absolutely nothing exposed about Blue Jack as he is an 8 year old but he just sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap here. Earlier this year he broke his 3 year losing streak and has been running himself into form as of late but struggled over 5 furlongs last time. His 6 furlong form though is very good and although now a little higher in the handicap ran a good enough race at Newmarket on his last outing. He was fancied that day but it is clear that 6 furlongs will be his trip as he was being pushed along from an early stage and stayed on late. Once rated 110 Blue Jack isn't the force of old but this season has shown he retains plenty of ability, despite only one of his nine wins coming over 6 furlongs he can go close here. Blue Shark to close up the Derby meeting. (16/1)
It is also worth noting that one of our horses to follow runs at Worcester today after Gregorian obliged for us yesterday. Ambion Wood has had a troubled campaign but has had a little break and a breathing operation, lets hope he can fulfill the talent we were promised.
NAP - Riverboat Springs
Nb - Swiss Cross
NAP and Nb done on betting perspectives this week as I didn't want to put a really short priced favourite as one of them. Swiss Cross would still be Next Best however.
Happy Punting and Be Lucky!
No comments:
Post a Comment