Last year saw another of the old guard bow out and what we thought was the last of the golden era of staying chasing. I speak of Kauto Star when he was pulled up by Ruby Walsh after less than a circuit of Prestbury Park. That was the first Gold Cup I have witnessed in person and the reaction from the crowd when he pulled up was incredible. Instant applause surrounded you and I doubt Kauto could hear it but he deserved every last bit of affection that day. This looked to be the end of the Old Guard, however this season our first port of call came back from Injury. Let's begin.
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| Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup back in 2010 |
Imperial Commander - It is possibly the highlight of the season so far to have the 12 year old back on the course after almost two years off with injury. He ran an absolute blinder in the Argento on his return to be mugged on the line by Cape Tribulation and Denis O'Regan. However in doing this he showed that he retains plenty of his talent and enthusiasm, especially as it was on bottomless ground. Only four out of the 10 managed to complete that day which tells you just how testing the conditions were. He had the lead from about 5 from home that day and travelled with ease until the last, it wasn't until the final 50 yards his fitness gave out.
But how realistic are his Gold Cup credentials?
There is no doubting that he will need to improve on his reappearance, but what horse doesn't improve for a run after such a long absence. He was in receipt of 6 pounds from Cape Tribulation that day, but it could well be argued that Malcolm Jefferson's gelding handles them conditions better. Come 2 weeks time I would be shocked if we had going anywhere near as testing as on trials day, handing Imperial Commander a live chance.
Personally for me, I wont be backing him, but you will do well to find a better 20/1 each way shot for the whole festival nevermind this race. He could well ruffle a few feathers but may have to give way to the younger horses coming through the division. (20/1)
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| Sir Des Champs on his way to winning last year's Jewson |
Sir Des Champs - Last year He remained unbeaten in his career winning the Jewson Novices Chase on the way, beating Champion Court in doing so. This year he was handed his first defeat by Flemenstar, in the John Durkan at Punchestown. It was clear that was just a run to blow away the cobwebs as Davy Russell never really went for him.
The biggest worry this year however is that his jumping has seriously deteriorated in a big way costing him races. One of these races was in the Lexus behind Tidal Bay when in a blanket finish including four horses. However he has proved that his stamina is more than sufficient when not really tiring in any of his races, that will be in full force here.
At the start of the season I was adamant that either Sir Des Champs or Flemenstar would win the Gold Cup. But after the latter was ruled out of it and Sir Des Champs being beaten by his rival over 3 miles and just prevailing last time, my opinion has changed. I couldn't have Willie Mullins charge at all here, especially if making mistakes again as that will certainly cost him his chance. Saying that he is already a dual festival winner and clearly loves the course. Id need to see more confidence at his fences however to be backing him here. (9/2)
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| Silviniaco Conti on his way to winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock |
Silviniaco Conti - Paul Nicholls said goodbye to Kauto Star at the beginning of this season and looked to have a gap in the 3 mile chasing division. Then Silviniaco Conti emerged as a genuine Gold Cup contender when handing out a 2 and a half length beating of Long Run. Before that he has also won the Charlie Hall up at Wetherby in very good style. It looked as if he had the King George at his mercy, however he didn't take up his position at Kempton. Instead he waited for February and in specific, the Denman Chase where he beat The Giant Bolster by 7 lengths. Last year he avoided Cheltenham, at the time Paul Nicholls said the Aintree was more his track, which I fully agreed with. However this season he has said Silviniaco Conti was coughing beforehand. I am still firmly of the belief that Aintree suits his athletic frame much more than Cheltenham does. His only trip to the track came in the International hurdle of 2010, when he was beaten 5 lengths by Menorah and half a length by the novice Cue Card.
Silviniaco Conti is another of the protagonists that could be worth avoiding in the race this year as there are plenty of doubts. One last doubt it what he has actually beaten this year, all fairly weak opposition and only one horse worthy of winning a Gold Cup. That is of course Long Run, and his defeat can be forgiven as it was first time out which he doesn't usually win anyway. One to steer clear of. (5/1)
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| Bobs Worth beating First Lieutenant in last years RSA Chase |
Bobs Worth - The top 3 mile novice last year has been favourite for the Gold Cup ever since his win in the Hennessy at Newbury. That was his only start this term, but gave First Lieutenant another beating confirming his dominance. Possibly the biggest positive of all is the fact he is four from four at Cheltenham and also a dual festival winner. On paper he is a perfect candidate for the highlight of Friday's racing and its hard to pick any holes in his form.
As a novice however he was a bit hit and miss suffering two defeats, at the hands of Invictus and Grands Crus. They were both on fairly non staying tracks which aren't really his forte, as he has already proven, Cheltenham is. One of the only negatives is that he missed his prep race due to the ground, he was declared for the Argento on trials day. Instead of taking up that engagement he had a racecourse gallop at Kempton after racing last Saturday, which he came through well.
You may be thinking to yourself, 'surely he cant take on the top three in the market' yet you are wrong. Bobs Worth doesn't appeal to me at the prices one bit and in my opinion doesn't look a Gold Cup winner. Don't get me wrong I fully expect him to make the first three and would be disappointed if he didn't, but I feel there are better horses in the race. (3/1)
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| 2011 Gold Cup winner, Long Run |
Long Run - Nicky Henderson is double handed in the Gold Cup with previous winner Long Run set to try and regain his crown. Last year he could only manage third behind Synchronised and The Giant Bolster, but he didn't seem right for the whole year in fairness. It could just be that his victory in 2011 bottomed him. He was back to his best last time however when regaining his King George crown. Im ashamed to admit that I am one of the people who believes he would be better with Geraghty on board. I also feel his guts and talent got Sam Waley-Cohen out of trouble last time. But who am I to knock a dual King George and a Gold Cup winning jockey.
To me at the prices, Long Run is the value and also the best horse in the race. Lets not forget that he handed out a beating to Kauto Star more than once and beat Denman in a Gold Cup. But he was knocked last year when only winning at Newbury and even that was far from impressive. This year however he looks somewhere near the same horse he was in 2011 after his battling win at Kempton.
One more positive is that he goes straight to the Festival this year after a hard fought success in December. He will arrive a fresh horse and after working at Kempton will be spot on for the race and should take some beating. Long Run gets the nod (7/1)
Let me know your thoughts on twitter by following me on @lukeyboy1325 and tell me if you agree or not and why.
Win - Long Run (7/1)
EW - Katenko (25/1)
Happy Punting guys
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