Good Evening/Morning to you all, Aintree is over and now the flat season is getting into full swing with a key Guineas trial this afternoon at Newbury. I speak of course about the Greenham which was won last year by Olympic Glory and in 2011 went the way of Frankel who both went on to better things. Kingman is the short priced favourite for this year but has by no means an easy task with other Guineas candidates in the line up. Elsewhere in the country there is racing at Bangor, Wolverhampton and Thirsk as well as Ayr who stage the Scottish National and Scottish Champion Hurdle this afternoon. There is one meeting over in Ireland his afternoon from Navan who stage a seven race flat card.
As always we have a preview video for today's action prepared for you in which we cover all the Channel 4 races as well as the other notable races of the day. Joining me on the panel are the usual suspects of @Adamwebb121 and @Calummadell, we hope you enjoy the video!
http://youtu.be/sU6IXzVrL0A
Now onto the selections!
1:50 Newbury - Mutashaded
Roger Varian saddles the lightly races Mutashaded for today's first runner after ending last season with a good third behind Hillstar at Royal Ascot. He was never closer than at the finish that day when staying on nicely behind Battle Of Marengo and the aforementioned Hillstar, but that was on Good to Firm. Yesterday the ground at Newbury wasn't quite soft but was certainly on the softer side of good which will suit the scopey individual of Mutashaded. Before his Ascot effort he was impressive at Sandown when showing a good turn of foot up the hill to beat Noble Bull and Theodore Gericault. The last point to make is that Newbury should play to his every strength unlike Ascot as it is a more galloping track, which would appear to be what he needs. As for the others in the field, Noble Mission is sure to give his running but finds winning hard to come by and the main danger could be from the improving Pether's Moon. (9/2)
2:55 Newbury - Night Of Thunder
This year's Greenham looks to revolve around the exciting prospect of Kingman who was one of the most impressive two year olds last season, however injury cut his season short. Until a couple of weeks ago, Night Of Thunder was the forgotten horse in the 2000 Guineas betting market but has since shortened despite the same yard having Toormore. Today's selection left a smile on the faces of many racegoers when winning very impressively by three lengths at Doncaster last season. The race is full of class and other than the obvious threat of Kingman there are other contenders looking to boost their Classic claims. Berkshire won the Chesham last year but it would seem that he will need further this year and the bigger danger could be the unexposed Lat Hawill. (4/1)
3:50 Ayr - Merry King
Merry King has been called just about every name under the sun in his time and not all of them were overly positive, but he is stamina laden which is crucial for today's race. Thanks to Tidal Bay he is officially two pounds out of the handicap today, but the five pound claim of Maurice Linehan negates that and takes off a further three. Linehan gets the ride as his usual pilots are unable to take the ride, firstly through AP McCoy who can't do the weight and secondly Richie McLernon who is sidelined. We last saw Merry King when pulled up at Haydock in the Grand National Trial, but that is best forgotten as nothing went right that day after being hampered early. Before that he has been third in the Peter Marsh after two staying on efforts in the Welsh National and the Hennessy behind Triolo D'alene. He is off his lowest mark since 2012 today with the rider's claim taken into account and an finally break his eight race losing streak. (20/1)
4:40 Newbury - Top Diktat
Gary Moore was out of luck yesterday at Newbury with Dutch Masterpiece but can gain small compensation here with Top Diktat who is on a hat-trick bid. Both of them wins have come at Kempton on the All Weather with the first one being in January, but he followed up in February off a seven pound higher mark. He is just four pounds higher than that effort today and with Ryan Moore on board has every chance to make it three wins from as many runs. The second and third from his last run have since franked the form by winning or placing in their efforts after the race and off higher marks as well. If he can translate his form onto the turf then Top Diktat could take some stopping today. (13/2)
NAP - Night Of Thunder
Nb - Mutashaded
Good luck today everyone and as always, Happy Punting
Friday, 11 April 2014
Friday, 4 April 2014
Grand National Runner By Runner Analysis
Video Preview of the Grand National
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_unbfZ_JOiA
Tidal Bay
One of the class acts in the field but pays for that with the welter burden of top weight but has lost little of his sparkle in his old age although can have his quirks. Was last seen when flying home from an impossible position in the Hennessy at Leopardstown to grab second on the line, including beating the Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere. Trainer Paul Nicholls won this race two years ago with Neptune Collonges but his only appearance in a National resulted in him unseating his rider. Considered and would be no surprise if he ran a big one, but can be opposed with a few in the race. Rating - 8/10
Long Run
Not the force of old but showed glimpses of his former self when winning a run of the mill contest up at Kelso in good style. The major worry for him around here is his jumping as he has been found wanting in that department before but he should have no problems in the stamina department. He won the Cheltenham Gold Cup back in 2011 beating Denman and Kauto Star but he isn't the same horse he was back then. Sam Waley Cohen is the only amateur rider in the race but his record round these fences is sublime, including a victory on Thursday in the Foxhunters on Warne. Again considered but needs to return to somewhere near his best to win this. Rating - 7/10
Hunt Ball
Rose to the big time a couple of seasons ago when winning seven out of nine races including at the Cheltenham Festival and a third in the Betfred Bowl here. Things haven't gone his way at the highest level since then and he failed to sparkle in America down to no fault of his own but is back with a top trainer. He showed that he still retains plenty of ability when third at Ascot behind Captain Chris over two and a half miles, before a good fourth over the same distance at Cheltenham. Worries about his jumping around here and serious worries about his stamina can see him discarded today. Rating 5/10
Triolo D'alene
An admirable seven year old who has paid his way recently with two victories to end last year including a win over these fences in the Topham. On his second outing this season he won the Hennessy at Newbury when generally unfancied at 20/1 before having a long break mid-season. He made his reappearance at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup when totally outclassed but steps back into Handicap company today and course form is a plus. Barry Geraghty chooses him over Hunt Ball but a few others are fancied, even on his best form. Rating - 6/10
Rocky Creek
Yet to live up to the tall reputation he was awarded by connections at the start of last season but has run some good races in hot contests. He found only Triolo D'alene too good in the Hennessy before losing to strong stayer Harry Topper in the Argento at Cheltenham. He has been awarded a mark of 156 which could be a bit high but this race has been in the pipeline for some time and will be fighting fit on the day. The assistance from the saddle of Noel Fehily is a huge bonus as he has been in great form lately but the horse is likely to come up short. 6/10
Quito De La Roque
The first Irish contender on the list and not their strongest one with Quito De La Roque who hasn't won since January 2013 at Thurles. Jumping and Stamina wont be an issue but he is a shadow of his former self when a dual Grade One winner back in 2011, but just the one win since then. Consistent enough but that isn't good enough here and he finds winning hard to do so for that reason he is easily brushed aside. Rating - 3/10
Colbert Station
Fancied last year off a two pound lower mark and his race ended prematurely when unseating AP McCoy at The Chair. He has posted a few laboured effort since last years race but the clear pick of his recent form is his third behind Cootamundra at Navan, which will need significantly improving on. Stamina shouldn't be a problem but AP McCoy prefers Double Seven and like him, others are preferred. Rating - 5/10
Walkon
Alan King's Grey Gelding has been very disappointing so far this season in two stars but was running well on his return when unseating Robert Thornton. The other stable jockey Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride today which is no negative and he has finished no worse than third on the horse in three attempts. He ended last season on an upward curve when fifth at Cheltenham and second over these fences behind Triolo D'alene. Jumping is no worry whatsoever but stamina is a major doubt as the furthest he has won over is two miles shorter than today, and hasn't won since late 2011. More than useful on his day but overlooked today. Rating - 4/10
Balthazar King
Balthazar King has made the Cheltenham Cross Country races his own in the last few years and ran well for a long way here last season before tiring. He jumped with great zest that day and thoroughly enjoyed himself but aggressive tactics may have found him out a little over this monster trip. Richard Johnson has partnered him in 13 of his 14 successes including victories in his last four races, including one in France. Slightly more restrained tactics could help him today and as long as he gets his slice of luck he'll be a major player, but did have a hard race at Cheltenham and any rain would hinder his chances. Strong place claims and good chances of winning the big prize. Rating - 8/10
Wayward Prince
Hails from the small yard of Hilary Parrott and he has won at Aintree before, albeit on the Mildmay Course and it is unknown how he will handle the National fences. His form can be a bit indifferent in the sense that when he is good he is very good but more regularly hits the opposite end of the scale. Looks up against it today but it would be no surprise to see him go well for a while. Rating - 3/10
Mr Moonshine
Representing the team who won the race last year of Ryan Mania and Sue Smith and is more than capable on his day, but he has had a hard campaign this time around. Jumping is very much his forte and stamina isn't too much of an issue but his class may let him down in this class of race. He looks to leave behind a disappointing effort last year when pulled up before the 27th fence when well behind and tired. Very good on his day and fitness wont be lacking but others are preferred. Rating - 5/10
Teaforthree
Last year's third off 151 and was all but leading over the last before stamina emptied on the run in after an attacking ride from Nick Scholfield. He was passed late on by Cappa Bleu who was held up out of the race and has been the ante-post favourite for some time. His jumping and stamina are assured and it's hard to pick holes in his form after a very good prep run at Ascot, before showing up well for a long way in the Gold Cup. The Handicapper has assigned him a mark of 149 to run off this season which is two pounds lower than last year and his overall profile is rock solid. Providing he runs his race he will be very hard to beat and its near impossible to see him out of the places if he makes it round. Rating - 9/10
Across The Bay
Fourteenth in this race last year and eighth in the Becher Chaser over these fences earlier this season behind Chance Du Roy. As a Novice he promised so much but never really made it as a top class chaser and as a result was stuck with a high handicap mark, so he has found life tough lately. Stamina wont be a problem and his jumping is usually pretty good but he is yet to get close on two attempts over these fences. His attitude couldn't be faulted two runs ago when staying on well to win over three and a half miles at Haydock but he unseated last time out. Overall he isn't without a chance but others are preferred ahead of him and its hard to see him realistically winning. Rating - 5/10
Double Seven
The mount of 18 time Champion Jockey AP McCoy who won this race back in 2011 on Don't Push It for his boss JP McManus who he rides for here. Double Seven had notched up six wins on the bounce before finding things happening too quickly for him over two and a half miles last time out. Stamina shouldn't be too much of a problem as he has won over in excess of three miles before, however he does have to deal with a career high handicap mark and he lacks the physical scope of some of these. The McCoy factor is sure to see him go off a much shorter price than he should and he isn't without a chance but he may come up short for win purposes. Rating - 6/10
Battle Group
Now for a runner who has a mind of his own in Battle Group who looked as if his rebellious days we behind him when winning three on the bounce late last season. Them three wins all came for Kevin Bishop and since joining his new yard he has gained three letters next to his name in the racecard. He started off by being pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before disgracing himself and refusing to race at Newbury and he was also pulled up last time. In all seriousness, even his best form wouldn't be good enough to win this and it is no certainty that he will even start the race after his Newbury exploits, easily opposed. Rating - 2/10
Buckers Bridge
Buckers Bridge is still relatively lightly raced for a National contender as he has only graced the racecourse with his presence eight times. He tackled a true stamina testing trip for the first time in his most recent run where he passed the test in third behind On His Own and Mount Benbulben. More will be needed today but he remains somewhat an unknown quantity which could be both for and against him in a National. On one hand he may be far better than we have previously seen, however he may also lack experience on the big stage. Connections also have the first reserve in the race who would have a better chance so it could be that Buckers Bridge is withdrawn to make room for Goonyella. If allowed to take his chance then Buckers Bridge could surprise a few here but winning may be too much to ask. Rating - 6/10
Lion Na Bearnai
The only twelve year old in the race is Lion Na Bearnai who is already a National winner, albeit an Irish National, but nonetheless a National. Stamina is assured here and is the chosen ride of Gold Cup winning jockey Davy Russell, although Lion Na Bearnai has his first stab at a National late in life. He wont mind what ground it is come race day as he performs on all going but faster ground would be preferred if anything. We last saw him when 33 lengths behind Buckers Bridge but it is safe to say he is better than that showing and he has solid place chances if taking to the fences. Rating - 6/10
Prince De Beauchene
A serious contender in Prince De Beauchene who represents the Champion Irish Trainer Willie Mullins who tasted success in this race with Hedgehunter in 2005. He has promised a lot in past seasons before getting little injuries that have ruled him out of the National, but this year he finally gets here in one piece. The last win to his name was in the Bobbyjo Chase in 2012 over three miles and a furlong so stamina isn't a huge problem and jumping isn't a worry here. He was in the process of running a big race in the Hennessy at Newbury before making a couple of bad mistakes at the wrong time and losing too much ground, that run is forgiven. He has since struggled in a Grade One which is probably above his ability and more recently was a good fourth over two and a half miles which is too short for him. The Handicapper has finally relented and given him a chance back in a handicap from his lofty 150+ ratings and has put him on 147 for today. Paul Townend fills in for the injured Ruby Walsh and Prince De Beauchene is taken to win the Grand National of 2014. Rating 9/10
Monbeg Dude
Michael Scudamore doesn't have a lot of horses but he does have a more than live National hope here with Monbeg Dude. He burst onto the scene in 2012 with a battling win at Cheltenham before going on to beat Teaforthree in the Welsh National under a brilliant Paul Carberry ride. Last season a soft ground Cheltenham enticed connections into a crack at the Gold Cup but that plan never really came to fruition as he was pulled up. However this season it has been all systems go for the National and he had a perfect prep run at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe Chase when a staying on fifth. Stamina is clearly no issue for him however he is prone to the odd jumping error and for that reason he can be opposed here. Rating - 7/10
Big Shu
Big Shu is the second horse in today's race to be considered a Cross Country specialist as he wont the Cheltenham Cross Country race last season, before going on to win the La Touche at Punchestown. In his last three outings, Big Shu has carried 11-9, 12-0 and 12-3 which when put against today's weight of 10-8 are huge asks. Stamina is at a premium here and his jumping should hold up over these fences and if all things go well he shouldn't be far away for Peter Buchanan. Rating - 7/10
Burton Port
Once top class and now with Jonjo O'Neill who won the race with Don't Push It back in 2010, however injuries have limited his career to date. He showed that he still has plenty of his old sparkle when jumping for fun at Newbury last time out before getting tired late on, there were excuses that day however. Brian Harding takes the ride on him today which is no negative but both of Jonjo's jockeys ride other horses in the race. A return to his best form would see him close but he is a big fragile these days and for win purposes we look elsewhere. Rating - 5/10
Our Father
Came into this season with a lofty reputation after a good Novice season and was sent off the 11/2 favourite in the Hennessy, but could do no better than seventh. Since then he has come a distant fifth in a National Trial at Haydock and a once more distant ninth at Cheltenham, but all roads this season have pointed towards here. The blinkers stay on today and Denis O'Regan has gone close in Nationals before on Black Apalachi while David Pipe wont this with Comply Or Die in 2008. Would be no surprise to see him go well for a while but in all seriousness he shouldn't be good enough here and others are preferred. Rating - 4/10
Mountainous
Won this season's Welsh National in tenacious style and clearly has no stamina worries to deal with but the ground is a worry. Mountainous is better on softer ground which he wont be getting today, saying that he has ran well on better ground before but came up short. He runs off a 13 pound higher mark than he did for his Welsh National victory today and looks up against it but will be staying on when others have cried enough. Rating - 4/10
The Rainbow Hunter
Landed a victory in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster which is seen as a trial for this race in good style beating Baile Anrai by a length and a half. There is no owner more excited about the race this year than Racing UK presenter Oli Bell as he owns a share in this challenger, so we wont be too harsh... Will we? He came here as an unfancied 50/1 shot last season and was jumping well before unseating Aidan Coleman at the Canal Turn through no fault of his own. If he can avoid trouble throughout the race then he wont be far away and is a very exciting addition to the field, with Aidan Coleman taking over from Nick Scholfield who prefers Teaforthree. Let's not forget that last season he was second in the race... Albeit without his jockey. Rating - 7/10
Vintage Star
Sue Smith won this race last year with Aurora's Encore and excels with staying chasers but Vintage Star is shunned by Ryan Mania who prefers Mr Moonshine. Brian Hughes takes over in the saddle today and he if he gets round he shouldn't be a million miles away but his jumping let him down last time at Cheltenham. Prior to that he was second in a gruelling Peter Marsh chase after a good sixth in the Welsh National behind Mountainous at Chepstow. Place chances at best but in all seriousness he should be found wanting in this race. Rating - 4/10
Chance Du Roy
Chance Du Roy will be given a chance by many after he won the Becher Chase in December over three miles and two furlongs. He has disappointed since when a dismal show at Haydock saw him pulled up early but he showed a slight return to form when fourth at Ascot last time out. That effort came with cheek pieces on first time and they stay on today but he will need to improve considerably to trouble the protagonists today. Rating - 5/10
Hawkes Point
Paul Nicholls' representative was given a favourable mention on our Cheltenham preview when joined by Nick Scholfield. He was beaten a head in this year's Welsh National but remains a lightly raced horse and may have a bit more improvement in him. The ground accounted for him last time at Haydock although he did manage a distant sixth, but better ground will suit him better today. Providing he can take to these fences he is one of the more lively outsiders with Ryan Mahon on board who has excelled in big races this season. Rating - 7/10
Kruzhlinin
The McCain family are synonymous with this race with the likes of Red Rum, Amberleigh House and Ballabriggs, but Kruzhlinin is unlikely to add to those names. He is better on good ground and Stamina isn't much of a worry, but he should be nowhere near the class of these today and is easily opposed. Rating - 2/10
Pineau De Re
Dr Richard Newland has an interesting one here with Pineau De Re who ran the most eyecatching race at Cheltenham when flying home late for third in the Pertemps. Before that he won a veterans chase in nice style but must run off a ten pound higher mark today which will make like tougher for him. His only visit to the National fences saw him come down at the eighth in the Becher Chase late last year under Brian Hughes. Lleighton Aspell takes the ride today and if he were to get round he will take a lot of beating with stamina a given. Rating - 8/10
Golan Way
A bit of a surprise they elected to turn up here but he did win a decent Hunter Chase last time out and his best form would hand him a small chance. Saying that he hasn't been at his best for years now and the easy lead that he craves wont be so easy here, for that he is easily overlooked. Rating - 1/10
Twirling Magnet
Jonjo O'Neill knows what it takes to win this race but Twirling Magnet looks up against it this afternoon after regressing since his Cheltenham win in October. He travelled well for a long way at the Festival but weakened and unseated his rider two out when beaten, so he will need more here. Richie McLernon takes the ride who was second by a nose hair on Sunnyhillboy back in 2012, but it would be a surprise if he got close this year. Rating - 2/10
Vesper Bell
Looked to be going the right way when an unlucky seventh in last year's Kim Muir at Cheltenham before a good staying performance to come second in Ireland. That was behind Goonyella who just missed out on the race this year and Vesper Bell has since disappointed in a big way, more importantly when falling at the first over these fences earlier this season. If he jumps round and returns to his best form he could be given a chance, but that is a very big if. Rating 4/10
The Package
David Pipe must be blaming The Package for his lack of hair as he has built up this trait of running well at Cheltenham then getting a small injury before the National. But this year he has made it to the race and although his only visit to these fences resulted in him unseating Graham Lee. He was a promising third behind Holywell at Cheltenham however and his stamina is clearly no issue, but he is 11 years old now and this will likely be his last chance at a National. Not discounted but he will need to improve on his recent form for win purposes. Rating - 7/10
Raz De Maree
This race has long been the aim for Raz De Maree for Dessie Hughes but he hasn't won since 2012 when winning the Cork National. He did however run a nice prep race at Down Royal behind Yes Tom, but he was outsider of the field that day and will need to improve significantly. From eight pounds higher in the handicap than his last win he could go close if a first time visor perks him up, but his price reflects his chances. Rating - 5/10
Rose Of The Moon
Dave O'Meara saddles an interesting one here in Rose Of The Moon although his one run over these fences wouldn't fill you with confidence when 10th in the Becher. He won a good race at Wetherby last time out however and has Cheek Pieces fitted for the first time today to get some more improvement. But on all known form he shouldn't be good enough here. Rating - 2/10
Shakalakaboomboom
If there were prizes given out for the best name in the race then Shakalakaboomboom would be an odds on favourite, but he isn't that on ability. He had his problems after coming ninth in the race in 2012 when running well for a long way, but he didn't stay on that occasion and that is again the worry today. Rating - 4/10
Alvarado
These silks are one of the most successful colours in the history of the race despite not winning, it seems every year they are in the placings. But Alvarado is their new horse to go to war with after winning impressively at Cheltenham two runs ago when staying very well. He was disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year's Day but that is easily forgiven as the conditions were near monsoon like. He will need to improve but it wouldn't be beyond him and gets in off a fly weight of 10-2. Rating - 5/10
Last Time D'albain
The last Irish raider in the field now with Last Time D'albain who has been disappointing since a good third over these fences in last year's Topham. The handicapper has been kind and he is only two pounds higher than his last visit here but on recent form its hard to give him too much of a chance. Rating - 3/10
One In A Milan
Evan Williams has a good record here with the likes of State Of Play and Cappa Bleu who was second last year, but its a big ask for him to improve on that here. Stamina is clearly no worry after a fourth in the Welsh National, but he had no weight that day and on bottomless ground it was the key. Promising young jockey Adam Wedge takes the ride but its difficult to see One In A Milan being good enough today. Rating - 3/10
Swing Bill
We come to the final horse for this year's Grand National and we started with a 13 year old so we shall also end with one. Swing Bill got into the race in controversial style through a random ballot but has a good record round these fences on more than one occasion. Last year saw him run a good sixth and from a four pound lower mark is no lost cause albeit this will be his last chance to win a National. Not completely dismissed and his price tag could be too big for a horse proven round the course, but others are preferred. Rating 5/10
1st - Prince De Beauchene
2nd - Teaforthree
3rd - The Rainbow Hunter
4th - The Package
Prince De Beauchene represents a top yard from Ireland and has been unlucky when not making the race in past years but is here this season off a good mark. There are stamina doubts regarding him but as long as his jumping holds up there shouldn't be too many problems regarding stamina. One horse who has jumping assured is Teaforthree who was third in this last year and may improve on that with less assertive tactics. The Rainbow Hunter came down here last season but that was through no fault of his own and is one that could be a bit overpriced after winning the Skybet. The best of the David Pipe lot could well be The Package who like the selection has missed Nationals through injuries before, but his jumping is his asset. Others that could get involved include Balthazar King who has won his last four and loved the fences here last year and Pineau De Re wont be far away if jumping well. Hawkes Point is stamina laden and the fences should provide no problem for him but he may be better next year as he remains inexperienced. AP McCoy rides Double Seven who is a clear stayer and is sure to be popular in the market, whereas Monbeg Dude will be stalking at the back of the field with Tidal Bay.
Good Luck everybody and as always, Happy Punting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_unbfZ_JOiA
Tidal Bay
One of the class acts in the field but pays for that with the welter burden of top weight but has lost little of his sparkle in his old age although can have his quirks. Was last seen when flying home from an impossible position in the Hennessy at Leopardstown to grab second on the line, including beating the Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere. Trainer Paul Nicholls won this race two years ago with Neptune Collonges but his only appearance in a National resulted in him unseating his rider. Considered and would be no surprise if he ran a big one, but can be opposed with a few in the race. Rating - 8/10
Long Run
Not the force of old but showed glimpses of his former self when winning a run of the mill contest up at Kelso in good style. The major worry for him around here is his jumping as he has been found wanting in that department before but he should have no problems in the stamina department. He won the Cheltenham Gold Cup back in 2011 beating Denman and Kauto Star but he isn't the same horse he was back then. Sam Waley Cohen is the only amateur rider in the race but his record round these fences is sublime, including a victory on Thursday in the Foxhunters on Warne. Again considered but needs to return to somewhere near his best to win this. Rating - 7/10
Hunt Ball
Rose to the big time a couple of seasons ago when winning seven out of nine races including at the Cheltenham Festival and a third in the Betfred Bowl here. Things haven't gone his way at the highest level since then and he failed to sparkle in America down to no fault of his own but is back with a top trainer. He showed that he still retains plenty of ability when third at Ascot behind Captain Chris over two and a half miles, before a good fourth over the same distance at Cheltenham. Worries about his jumping around here and serious worries about his stamina can see him discarded today. Rating 5/10
Triolo D'alene
An admirable seven year old who has paid his way recently with two victories to end last year including a win over these fences in the Topham. On his second outing this season he won the Hennessy at Newbury when generally unfancied at 20/1 before having a long break mid-season. He made his reappearance at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup when totally outclassed but steps back into Handicap company today and course form is a plus. Barry Geraghty chooses him over Hunt Ball but a few others are fancied, even on his best form. Rating - 6/10
Rocky Creek
Yet to live up to the tall reputation he was awarded by connections at the start of last season but has run some good races in hot contests. He found only Triolo D'alene too good in the Hennessy before losing to strong stayer Harry Topper in the Argento at Cheltenham. He has been awarded a mark of 156 which could be a bit high but this race has been in the pipeline for some time and will be fighting fit on the day. The assistance from the saddle of Noel Fehily is a huge bonus as he has been in great form lately but the horse is likely to come up short. 6/10
Quito De La Roque
The first Irish contender on the list and not their strongest one with Quito De La Roque who hasn't won since January 2013 at Thurles. Jumping and Stamina wont be an issue but he is a shadow of his former self when a dual Grade One winner back in 2011, but just the one win since then. Consistent enough but that isn't good enough here and he finds winning hard to do so for that reason he is easily brushed aside. Rating - 3/10
Colbert Station
Fancied last year off a two pound lower mark and his race ended prematurely when unseating AP McCoy at The Chair. He has posted a few laboured effort since last years race but the clear pick of his recent form is his third behind Cootamundra at Navan, which will need significantly improving on. Stamina shouldn't be a problem but AP McCoy prefers Double Seven and like him, others are preferred. Rating - 5/10
Walkon
Alan King's Grey Gelding has been very disappointing so far this season in two stars but was running well on his return when unseating Robert Thornton. The other stable jockey Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride today which is no negative and he has finished no worse than third on the horse in three attempts. He ended last season on an upward curve when fifth at Cheltenham and second over these fences behind Triolo D'alene. Jumping is no worry whatsoever but stamina is a major doubt as the furthest he has won over is two miles shorter than today, and hasn't won since late 2011. More than useful on his day but overlooked today. Rating - 4/10
Balthazar King
Balthazar King has made the Cheltenham Cross Country races his own in the last few years and ran well for a long way here last season before tiring. He jumped with great zest that day and thoroughly enjoyed himself but aggressive tactics may have found him out a little over this monster trip. Richard Johnson has partnered him in 13 of his 14 successes including victories in his last four races, including one in France. Slightly more restrained tactics could help him today and as long as he gets his slice of luck he'll be a major player, but did have a hard race at Cheltenham and any rain would hinder his chances. Strong place claims and good chances of winning the big prize. Rating - 8/10
Wayward Prince
Hails from the small yard of Hilary Parrott and he has won at Aintree before, albeit on the Mildmay Course and it is unknown how he will handle the National fences. His form can be a bit indifferent in the sense that when he is good he is very good but more regularly hits the opposite end of the scale. Looks up against it today but it would be no surprise to see him go well for a while. Rating - 3/10
Mr Moonshine
Representing the team who won the race last year of Ryan Mania and Sue Smith and is more than capable on his day, but he has had a hard campaign this time around. Jumping is very much his forte and stamina isn't too much of an issue but his class may let him down in this class of race. He looks to leave behind a disappointing effort last year when pulled up before the 27th fence when well behind and tired. Very good on his day and fitness wont be lacking but others are preferred. Rating - 5/10
Teaforthree
Last year's third off 151 and was all but leading over the last before stamina emptied on the run in after an attacking ride from Nick Scholfield. He was passed late on by Cappa Bleu who was held up out of the race and has been the ante-post favourite for some time. His jumping and stamina are assured and it's hard to pick holes in his form after a very good prep run at Ascot, before showing up well for a long way in the Gold Cup. The Handicapper has assigned him a mark of 149 to run off this season which is two pounds lower than last year and his overall profile is rock solid. Providing he runs his race he will be very hard to beat and its near impossible to see him out of the places if he makes it round. Rating - 9/10
Across The Bay
Fourteenth in this race last year and eighth in the Becher Chaser over these fences earlier this season behind Chance Du Roy. As a Novice he promised so much but never really made it as a top class chaser and as a result was stuck with a high handicap mark, so he has found life tough lately. Stamina wont be a problem and his jumping is usually pretty good but he is yet to get close on two attempts over these fences. His attitude couldn't be faulted two runs ago when staying on well to win over three and a half miles at Haydock but he unseated last time out. Overall he isn't without a chance but others are preferred ahead of him and its hard to see him realistically winning. Rating - 5/10
Double Seven
The mount of 18 time Champion Jockey AP McCoy who won this race back in 2011 on Don't Push It for his boss JP McManus who he rides for here. Double Seven had notched up six wins on the bounce before finding things happening too quickly for him over two and a half miles last time out. Stamina shouldn't be too much of a problem as he has won over in excess of three miles before, however he does have to deal with a career high handicap mark and he lacks the physical scope of some of these. The McCoy factor is sure to see him go off a much shorter price than he should and he isn't without a chance but he may come up short for win purposes. Rating - 6/10
Battle Group
Now for a runner who has a mind of his own in Battle Group who looked as if his rebellious days we behind him when winning three on the bounce late last season. Them three wins all came for Kevin Bishop and since joining his new yard he has gained three letters next to his name in the racecard. He started off by being pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before disgracing himself and refusing to race at Newbury and he was also pulled up last time. In all seriousness, even his best form wouldn't be good enough to win this and it is no certainty that he will even start the race after his Newbury exploits, easily opposed. Rating - 2/10
Buckers Bridge
Buckers Bridge is still relatively lightly raced for a National contender as he has only graced the racecourse with his presence eight times. He tackled a true stamina testing trip for the first time in his most recent run where he passed the test in third behind On His Own and Mount Benbulben. More will be needed today but he remains somewhat an unknown quantity which could be both for and against him in a National. On one hand he may be far better than we have previously seen, however he may also lack experience on the big stage. Connections also have the first reserve in the race who would have a better chance so it could be that Buckers Bridge is withdrawn to make room for Goonyella. If allowed to take his chance then Buckers Bridge could surprise a few here but winning may be too much to ask. Rating - 6/10
Lion Na Bearnai
The only twelve year old in the race is Lion Na Bearnai who is already a National winner, albeit an Irish National, but nonetheless a National. Stamina is assured here and is the chosen ride of Gold Cup winning jockey Davy Russell, although Lion Na Bearnai has his first stab at a National late in life. He wont mind what ground it is come race day as he performs on all going but faster ground would be preferred if anything. We last saw him when 33 lengths behind Buckers Bridge but it is safe to say he is better than that showing and he has solid place chances if taking to the fences. Rating - 6/10
Prince De Beauchene
A serious contender in Prince De Beauchene who represents the Champion Irish Trainer Willie Mullins who tasted success in this race with Hedgehunter in 2005. He has promised a lot in past seasons before getting little injuries that have ruled him out of the National, but this year he finally gets here in one piece. The last win to his name was in the Bobbyjo Chase in 2012 over three miles and a furlong so stamina isn't a huge problem and jumping isn't a worry here. He was in the process of running a big race in the Hennessy at Newbury before making a couple of bad mistakes at the wrong time and losing too much ground, that run is forgiven. He has since struggled in a Grade One which is probably above his ability and more recently was a good fourth over two and a half miles which is too short for him. The Handicapper has finally relented and given him a chance back in a handicap from his lofty 150+ ratings and has put him on 147 for today. Paul Townend fills in for the injured Ruby Walsh and Prince De Beauchene is taken to win the Grand National of 2014. Rating 9/10
Monbeg Dude
Michael Scudamore doesn't have a lot of horses but he does have a more than live National hope here with Monbeg Dude. He burst onto the scene in 2012 with a battling win at Cheltenham before going on to beat Teaforthree in the Welsh National under a brilliant Paul Carberry ride. Last season a soft ground Cheltenham enticed connections into a crack at the Gold Cup but that plan never really came to fruition as he was pulled up. However this season it has been all systems go for the National and he had a perfect prep run at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe Chase when a staying on fifth. Stamina is clearly no issue for him however he is prone to the odd jumping error and for that reason he can be opposed here. Rating - 7/10
Big Shu
Big Shu is the second horse in today's race to be considered a Cross Country specialist as he wont the Cheltenham Cross Country race last season, before going on to win the La Touche at Punchestown. In his last three outings, Big Shu has carried 11-9, 12-0 and 12-3 which when put against today's weight of 10-8 are huge asks. Stamina is at a premium here and his jumping should hold up over these fences and if all things go well he shouldn't be far away for Peter Buchanan. Rating - 7/10
Burton Port
Once top class and now with Jonjo O'Neill who won the race with Don't Push It back in 2010, however injuries have limited his career to date. He showed that he still has plenty of his old sparkle when jumping for fun at Newbury last time out before getting tired late on, there were excuses that day however. Brian Harding takes the ride on him today which is no negative but both of Jonjo's jockeys ride other horses in the race. A return to his best form would see him close but he is a big fragile these days and for win purposes we look elsewhere. Rating - 5/10
Our Father
Came into this season with a lofty reputation after a good Novice season and was sent off the 11/2 favourite in the Hennessy, but could do no better than seventh. Since then he has come a distant fifth in a National Trial at Haydock and a once more distant ninth at Cheltenham, but all roads this season have pointed towards here. The blinkers stay on today and Denis O'Regan has gone close in Nationals before on Black Apalachi while David Pipe wont this with Comply Or Die in 2008. Would be no surprise to see him go well for a while but in all seriousness he shouldn't be good enough here and others are preferred. Rating - 4/10
Mountainous
Won this season's Welsh National in tenacious style and clearly has no stamina worries to deal with but the ground is a worry. Mountainous is better on softer ground which he wont be getting today, saying that he has ran well on better ground before but came up short. He runs off a 13 pound higher mark than he did for his Welsh National victory today and looks up against it but will be staying on when others have cried enough. Rating - 4/10
The Rainbow Hunter
Landed a victory in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster which is seen as a trial for this race in good style beating Baile Anrai by a length and a half. There is no owner more excited about the race this year than Racing UK presenter Oli Bell as he owns a share in this challenger, so we wont be too harsh... Will we? He came here as an unfancied 50/1 shot last season and was jumping well before unseating Aidan Coleman at the Canal Turn through no fault of his own. If he can avoid trouble throughout the race then he wont be far away and is a very exciting addition to the field, with Aidan Coleman taking over from Nick Scholfield who prefers Teaforthree. Let's not forget that last season he was second in the race... Albeit without his jockey. Rating - 7/10
Vintage Star
Sue Smith won this race last year with Aurora's Encore and excels with staying chasers but Vintage Star is shunned by Ryan Mania who prefers Mr Moonshine. Brian Hughes takes over in the saddle today and he if he gets round he shouldn't be a million miles away but his jumping let him down last time at Cheltenham. Prior to that he was second in a gruelling Peter Marsh chase after a good sixth in the Welsh National behind Mountainous at Chepstow. Place chances at best but in all seriousness he should be found wanting in this race. Rating - 4/10
Chance Du Roy
Chance Du Roy will be given a chance by many after he won the Becher Chase in December over three miles and two furlongs. He has disappointed since when a dismal show at Haydock saw him pulled up early but he showed a slight return to form when fourth at Ascot last time out. That effort came with cheek pieces on first time and they stay on today but he will need to improve considerably to trouble the protagonists today. Rating - 5/10
Hawkes Point
Paul Nicholls' representative was given a favourable mention on our Cheltenham preview when joined by Nick Scholfield. He was beaten a head in this year's Welsh National but remains a lightly raced horse and may have a bit more improvement in him. The ground accounted for him last time at Haydock although he did manage a distant sixth, but better ground will suit him better today. Providing he can take to these fences he is one of the more lively outsiders with Ryan Mahon on board who has excelled in big races this season. Rating - 7/10
Kruzhlinin
The McCain family are synonymous with this race with the likes of Red Rum, Amberleigh House and Ballabriggs, but Kruzhlinin is unlikely to add to those names. He is better on good ground and Stamina isn't much of a worry, but he should be nowhere near the class of these today and is easily opposed. Rating - 2/10
Pineau De Re
Dr Richard Newland has an interesting one here with Pineau De Re who ran the most eyecatching race at Cheltenham when flying home late for third in the Pertemps. Before that he won a veterans chase in nice style but must run off a ten pound higher mark today which will make like tougher for him. His only visit to the National fences saw him come down at the eighth in the Becher Chase late last year under Brian Hughes. Lleighton Aspell takes the ride today and if he were to get round he will take a lot of beating with stamina a given. Rating - 8/10
Golan Way
A bit of a surprise they elected to turn up here but he did win a decent Hunter Chase last time out and his best form would hand him a small chance. Saying that he hasn't been at his best for years now and the easy lead that he craves wont be so easy here, for that he is easily overlooked. Rating - 1/10
Twirling Magnet
Jonjo O'Neill knows what it takes to win this race but Twirling Magnet looks up against it this afternoon after regressing since his Cheltenham win in October. He travelled well for a long way at the Festival but weakened and unseated his rider two out when beaten, so he will need more here. Richie McLernon takes the ride who was second by a nose hair on Sunnyhillboy back in 2012, but it would be a surprise if he got close this year. Rating - 2/10
Vesper Bell
Looked to be going the right way when an unlucky seventh in last year's Kim Muir at Cheltenham before a good staying performance to come second in Ireland. That was behind Goonyella who just missed out on the race this year and Vesper Bell has since disappointed in a big way, more importantly when falling at the first over these fences earlier this season. If he jumps round and returns to his best form he could be given a chance, but that is a very big if. Rating 4/10
The Package
David Pipe must be blaming The Package for his lack of hair as he has built up this trait of running well at Cheltenham then getting a small injury before the National. But this year he has made it to the race and although his only visit to these fences resulted in him unseating Graham Lee. He was a promising third behind Holywell at Cheltenham however and his stamina is clearly no issue, but he is 11 years old now and this will likely be his last chance at a National. Not discounted but he will need to improve on his recent form for win purposes. Rating - 7/10
Raz De Maree
This race has long been the aim for Raz De Maree for Dessie Hughes but he hasn't won since 2012 when winning the Cork National. He did however run a nice prep race at Down Royal behind Yes Tom, but he was outsider of the field that day and will need to improve significantly. From eight pounds higher in the handicap than his last win he could go close if a first time visor perks him up, but his price reflects his chances. Rating - 5/10
Rose Of The Moon
Dave O'Meara saddles an interesting one here in Rose Of The Moon although his one run over these fences wouldn't fill you with confidence when 10th in the Becher. He won a good race at Wetherby last time out however and has Cheek Pieces fitted for the first time today to get some more improvement. But on all known form he shouldn't be good enough here. Rating - 2/10
Shakalakaboomboom
If there were prizes given out for the best name in the race then Shakalakaboomboom would be an odds on favourite, but he isn't that on ability. He had his problems after coming ninth in the race in 2012 when running well for a long way, but he didn't stay on that occasion and that is again the worry today. Rating - 4/10
Alvarado
These silks are one of the most successful colours in the history of the race despite not winning, it seems every year they are in the placings. But Alvarado is their new horse to go to war with after winning impressively at Cheltenham two runs ago when staying very well. He was disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year's Day but that is easily forgiven as the conditions were near monsoon like. He will need to improve but it wouldn't be beyond him and gets in off a fly weight of 10-2. Rating - 5/10
Last Time D'albain
The last Irish raider in the field now with Last Time D'albain who has been disappointing since a good third over these fences in last year's Topham. The handicapper has been kind and he is only two pounds higher than his last visit here but on recent form its hard to give him too much of a chance. Rating - 3/10
One In A Milan
Evan Williams has a good record here with the likes of State Of Play and Cappa Bleu who was second last year, but its a big ask for him to improve on that here. Stamina is clearly no worry after a fourth in the Welsh National, but he had no weight that day and on bottomless ground it was the key. Promising young jockey Adam Wedge takes the ride but its difficult to see One In A Milan being good enough today. Rating - 3/10
Swing Bill
We come to the final horse for this year's Grand National and we started with a 13 year old so we shall also end with one. Swing Bill got into the race in controversial style through a random ballot but has a good record round these fences on more than one occasion. Last year saw him run a good sixth and from a four pound lower mark is no lost cause albeit this will be his last chance to win a National. Not completely dismissed and his price tag could be too big for a horse proven round the course, but others are preferred. Rating 5/10
1st - Prince De Beauchene
2nd - Teaforthree
3rd - The Rainbow Hunter
4th - The Package
Prince De Beauchene represents a top yard from Ireland and has been unlucky when not making the race in past years but is here this season off a good mark. There are stamina doubts regarding him but as long as his jumping holds up there shouldn't be too many problems regarding stamina. One horse who has jumping assured is Teaforthree who was third in this last year and may improve on that with less assertive tactics. The Rainbow Hunter came down here last season but that was through no fault of his own and is one that could be a bit overpriced after winning the Skybet. The best of the David Pipe lot could well be The Package who like the selection has missed Nationals through injuries before, but his jumping is his asset. Others that could get involved include Balthazar King who has won his last four and loved the fences here last year and Pineau De Re wont be far away if jumping well. Hawkes Point is stamina laden and the fences should provide no problem for him but he may be better next year as he remains inexperienced. AP McCoy rides Double Seven who is a clear stayer and is sure to be popular in the market, whereas Monbeg Dude will be stalking at the back of the field with Tidal Bay.
Good Luck everybody and as always, Happy Punting!
Thursday, 3 April 2014
Aintree Festival Day Two
Good Morning/Evening everyone and welcome to day two of Aintree after day one was somewhat an anticlimax with some fancied runners going down. We still managed to stay afloat with Rock On Ruby chasing home The New One and Warne winning emphatically for Sam Waley-Cohen. Lets hope today can be a bit better as the highlight is the Melling Chase in which Module looks to gain some Cheltenham compensation. They race over the National fences for which Double Ross is the favourite for an ever competitive Topham Chase.
As always we have a video planned for you as we mark your card for the day's racing at Aintree. Joining the panel today are myself (@Lukeelder13), Calum Madell (@Calummadell) and our very own Aintree encyclopedia Adam Webb (@Adamwebb121). We hope you enjoy the video and agree with some of our selections!
http://youtu.be/q76uH3go784
2:00 Aintree - SGT Reckless
Many people speculated different things about the run of SGT Reckless at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices when fourth behind Vautour. However one of the things not so widely mentioned was the fact that he didn't handle the course at all like a few others including Irving. My thought process for him is that he is a 'flat track bully' as his four wins have come at Kempton twice, Lingfield (Polytrack) and at Wincanton with the latter being his debut. Half way down the back straight at Cheltenham he found himself a bit tailed off and even more so when coming down the hill towards two out. Turning for home you would have given him no chance as he was giving the leaders around a 20 length headstart but then the turbo kicked in and he flew for fourth. Ahead of him at Cheltenham was Josses Hill who reopposes but if the track plays to the selection's strengths then it shouldn't be too much of an ask. The pace angle seems to be Amore Alato who would have place chances, but SGT Reckless could get his big win for the season. (5/1)
1st - SGT Reckless
2nd - Amore Alato
3rd - Josses Hill
2:30 Aintree - Wonderful Charm
In hindsight, the JLT probably wasn't the right race for Wonderful Charm as he found himself outpaced at the top of the hill and stayed on to finish a head away from fourth. In truth he never looked like a winner that day and his cause wasn't helped by the fall of Djakadam but he was struggling at the time. The step up to three miles looks to be a huge positive and Sam Twiston-Davies takes over from the injured Daryl Jacob which by no means a negative. Out of the rest, O'Faolains Boy looks to be the main danger but it is a big ask to win the RSA then come here just three weeks later and is overlooked today. Don Cossack was still going well when falling at Cheltenham and he bought down Many Clouds, whereas Richie McLernon gets on better with Holywell. Wonderful Charm is taken to relish the step up in trip however and provide Paul Nicholls with another Aintree winner after Silviniaco Conti yesterday. (4/1)
1st - Wonderful Charm
2nd - Don Cossack
3:05 Aintree - Module
There is no way around it, this is an emphatically poor race and is a Grade 1 only in name, especially after last years renewal with Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar. There must still be a winner however and Module is assigned that task for us after an eye catching run over shorter in the Champion Chase. He was victorious in the Game Spirit at Newbury when rallying and everything would say he is more at home over Two and a half miles. Saying that, he was very disappointing in the Peterborough but the better ground should bring out some improvement in him. The others leave something to be desired but Wishfull Thinking has won round here before and is showing glimmers of what he was in his younger days. Days Hotel is an intriguing runner but has never won beyond two miles and has place claims at best but Module is taken to land his Grade One. (9/2)
1st - Module
2nd - Wishfull Thinking
3rd - Days Hotel
3:40 Aintree - Standing Ovation
David Pipe was out of luck yesterday with his main hopes Dynaste and Western Warhorse but can gain compensation here with Standing Ovation who has improved leaps and bounds this season. It is a very interesting move to drop him in trip as off his higher mark he has been failing to see out the trips in excess of three miles but showing well for a long way. As a result of that he has been slipping down the handicap and is now only nine pounds higher than his last winning mark. Standing Ovation's main asset is undoubtedly his jumping which should see him to good effect round the National fences and is taken to win for Conor O'Farrell. Of the others in the field that have chances, I have been waiting for Mart Lane to run on faster ground for some time now and he finally gets that today. Tahiti Pearl is also a very bold jumper and that should be put to good use this afternoon after he has refound his form lately. David Pipe can land this one with Standing Ovation though. (12/1)
1st - Standing Ovation
2nd - Mart Lane
3rd - Tahiti Pearl
4th - Rebel Rebellion
4:15 Aintree - Beat That
Nicky Henderson decided to avoid Cheltenham with Beat That but had he taken his chance in the Neptune he wouldn't have been out of the mix. His only victory came in November last year when handing out a ten length pounding to Champagne West who has since gone on to better things. I was present that day and he didn't look anywhere near the finished article so I was shocked when he won so easily but he had clearly come on at Sandown last time out. At Sandown he had grown into himself and arguably should have won before getting the last completely wrong and losing all momentum. It's notable that they have waited with him just to give him a bit more time to progress and should take some beating today. Seeyouatmidnight is clearly the one to beat after his victory in the Rendlesham last time out but but there are concerns about the ground for him. Barry Geraghty chooses Beat That over Tistory which is notable and Killala Quay ran with great credit in the Neptune at Cheltenham. (9/1)
1st - Beat That
2nd - Killala Quay
3rd - Racing Pulse
4:50 Aintree - Alaivan
Alaivan is the second runner from the Cheltenham Forgiveness List to run today after showing well for a long way in the County before being outpaced. He still managed ninth that day and didn't lose any further ground when coming under pressure but the cheek pieces remain on. Another thing that remains on is his jockey Maurice Linehan who has partnered him in their last three outings together over shorter trips. He remains off a mark of 132 which is more than workable, especially when taking into account his riders five pound claim and the ground is no issue at all. Like Minded has had a good season so far including a good third in the Lanzarote at Cheltenham and may still be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. One that was unlucky for various reasons at Cheltenham was Attaglance who reverts back to hurdles today and has done the festival double before. Clondaw Kaempfer has been touted for a few handicaps this season and has a notable jockey booking, but it is Alaivan who is taken to step up in trip successfully. (16/1)
1st - Alaivan
2nd - Like Minded
3rd - Attaglance
4th - Little Jon
5:25 Aintree - Lady Buttons
We end today with the Mares Bumper won last year by the promising Legacy Gold who has since won to win three Hurdle races this season for David Pipe. Lady Buttons gets the nod here though after a decisive success last time out at Wetherby when beating Millicent Silver with ease. That was on more testing ground but she won on good to soft on debut so the conditions are no problem after her only defeat came in monsoon conditions at Cheltenham. Lady Buttons is the pick of the four year olds and the talented Adam Nicol takes a further five pounds off so she gets ten pounds from her older rivals. The Govaness was impressive when beating Lily Waugh and Legacy Gold at Chletenham earlier in the season and comes here fresh whereas Tara Mist might want more cut in the ground. (11/1)
1st - Lady Buttons
2nd - Hannah's Princess
3rd - The Govaness
NAP - Beat That
Nb - Wonderful Charm
Good luck today everyone and as always, Happy Punting!
As always we have a video planned for you as we mark your card for the day's racing at Aintree. Joining the panel today are myself (@Lukeelder13), Calum Madell (@Calummadell) and our very own Aintree encyclopedia Adam Webb (@Adamwebb121). We hope you enjoy the video and agree with some of our selections!
http://youtu.be/q76uH3go784
2:00 Aintree - SGT Reckless
Many people speculated different things about the run of SGT Reckless at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices when fourth behind Vautour. However one of the things not so widely mentioned was the fact that he didn't handle the course at all like a few others including Irving. My thought process for him is that he is a 'flat track bully' as his four wins have come at Kempton twice, Lingfield (Polytrack) and at Wincanton with the latter being his debut. Half way down the back straight at Cheltenham he found himself a bit tailed off and even more so when coming down the hill towards two out. Turning for home you would have given him no chance as he was giving the leaders around a 20 length headstart but then the turbo kicked in and he flew for fourth. Ahead of him at Cheltenham was Josses Hill who reopposes but if the track plays to the selection's strengths then it shouldn't be too much of an ask. The pace angle seems to be Amore Alato who would have place chances, but SGT Reckless could get his big win for the season. (5/1)
1st - SGT Reckless
2nd - Amore Alato
3rd - Josses Hill
2:30 Aintree - Wonderful Charm
In hindsight, the JLT probably wasn't the right race for Wonderful Charm as he found himself outpaced at the top of the hill and stayed on to finish a head away from fourth. In truth he never looked like a winner that day and his cause wasn't helped by the fall of Djakadam but he was struggling at the time. The step up to three miles looks to be a huge positive and Sam Twiston-Davies takes over from the injured Daryl Jacob which by no means a negative. Out of the rest, O'Faolains Boy looks to be the main danger but it is a big ask to win the RSA then come here just three weeks later and is overlooked today. Don Cossack was still going well when falling at Cheltenham and he bought down Many Clouds, whereas Richie McLernon gets on better with Holywell. Wonderful Charm is taken to relish the step up in trip however and provide Paul Nicholls with another Aintree winner after Silviniaco Conti yesterday. (4/1)
1st - Wonderful Charm
2nd - Don Cossack
3:05 Aintree - Module
There is no way around it, this is an emphatically poor race and is a Grade 1 only in name, especially after last years renewal with Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar. There must still be a winner however and Module is assigned that task for us after an eye catching run over shorter in the Champion Chase. He was victorious in the Game Spirit at Newbury when rallying and everything would say he is more at home over Two and a half miles. Saying that, he was very disappointing in the Peterborough but the better ground should bring out some improvement in him. The others leave something to be desired but Wishfull Thinking has won round here before and is showing glimmers of what he was in his younger days. Days Hotel is an intriguing runner but has never won beyond two miles and has place claims at best but Module is taken to land his Grade One. (9/2)
1st - Module
2nd - Wishfull Thinking
3rd - Days Hotel
3:40 Aintree - Standing Ovation
David Pipe was out of luck yesterday with his main hopes Dynaste and Western Warhorse but can gain compensation here with Standing Ovation who has improved leaps and bounds this season. It is a very interesting move to drop him in trip as off his higher mark he has been failing to see out the trips in excess of three miles but showing well for a long way. As a result of that he has been slipping down the handicap and is now only nine pounds higher than his last winning mark. Standing Ovation's main asset is undoubtedly his jumping which should see him to good effect round the National fences and is taken to win for Conor O'Farrell. Of the others in the field that have chances, I have been waiting for Mart Lane to run on faster ground for some time now and he finally gets that today. Tahiti Pearl is also a very bold jumper and that should be put to good use this afternoon after he has refound his form lately. David Pipe can land this one with Standing Ovation though. (12/1)
1st - Standing Ovation
2nd - Mart Lane
3rd - Tahiti Pearl
4th - Rebel Rebellion
4:15 Aintree - Beat That
Nicky Henderson decided to avoid Cheltenham with Beat That but had he taken his chance in the Neptune he wouldn't have been out of the mix. His only victory came in November last year when handing out a ten length pounding to Champagne West who has since gone on to better things. I was present that day and he didn't look anywhere near the finished article so I was shocked when he won so easily but he had clearly come on at Sandown last time out. At Sandown he had grown into himself and arguably should have won before getting the last completely wrong and losing all momentum. It's notable that they have waited with him just to give him a bit more time to progress and should take some beating today. Seeyouatmidnight is clearly the one to beat after his victory in the Rendlesham last time out but but there are concerns about the ground for him. Barry Geraghty chooses Beat That over Tistory which is notable and Killala Quay ran with great credit in the Neptune at Cheltenham. (9/1)
1st - Beat That
2nd - Killala Quay
3rd - Racing Pulse
4:50 Aintree - Alaivan
Alaivan is the second runner from the Cheltenham Forgiveness List to run today after showing well for a long way in the County before being outpaced. He still managed ninth that day and didn't lose any further ground when coming under pressure but the cheek pieces remain on. Another thing that remains on is his jockey Maurice Linehan who has partnered him in their last three outings together over shorter trips. He remains off a mark of 132 which is more than workable, especially when taking into account his riders five pound claim and the ground is no issue at all. Like Minded has had a good season so far including a good third in the Lanzarote at Cheltenham and may still be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. One that was unlucky for various reasons at Cheltenham was Attaglance who reverts back to hurdles today and has done the festival double before. Clondaw Kaempfer has been touted for a few handicaps this season and has a notable jockey booking, but it is Alaivan who is taken to step up in trip successfully. (16/1)
1st - Alaivan
2nd - Like Minded
3rd - Attaglance
4th - Little Jon
5:25 Aintree - Lady Buttons
We end today with the Mares Bumper won last year by the promising Legacy Gold who has since won to win three Hurdle races this season for David Pipe. Lady Buttons gets the nod here though after a decisive success last time out at Wetherby when beating Millicent Silver with ease. That was on more testing ground but she won on good to soft on debut so the conditions are no problem after her only defeat came in monsoon conditions at Cheltenham. Lady Buttons is the pick of the four year olds and the talented Adam Nicol takes a further five pounds off so she gets ten pounds from her older rivals. The Govaness was impressive when beating Lily Waugh and Legacy Gold at Chletenham earlier in the season and comes here fresh whereas Tara Mist might want more cut in the ground. (11/1)
1st - Lady Buttons
2nd - Hannah's Princess
3rd - The Govaness
NAP - Beat That
Nb - Wonderful Charm
Good luck today everyone and as always, Happy Punting!
Wednesday, 2 April 2014
Aintree Festival Day One
Good Morning/Evening to you all and welcome to the Aintree Grand National Meeting as the National Hunt season continues to wind down. Today's big races are the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl which will see First Lieutenant try to land his 2nd victory in the race in as many years and the Aintree Hurdle.
We have as always prepared a video for you guys covering all of today's racing at Aintree as well as a few giggles. Joining the panel today is myself (@Lukeelder13), Adam Webb (@Adamwebb121) and Michael Andrews (@Mytentoryours). We hope you enjoy the video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCVAZd_h0UY
Now onto today's selections!
2:00 Aintree - Activial
Harry Fry decided to swerve Cheltenham with Activial and has been aimed at Aintree as a result, after seeing the backside of Calipto earlier this season. Nothing went right for the latter at Cheltenham after Daryl Jacob's stirrup broke off approaching two out when still travelling very strongly, but he will have to reproduce that run again. The selection has to find three and a quarter lengths with Calipto from the Newbury race in November but the better ground should see that margin significantly shortened. One of the main positives about Activial is that he comes here fresh as many in the field will have left their race behind at Cheltenham. We last saw Activial when victorious in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, handing out a three and a half length beating to the re-opposing Commissioned, who also gave Cheltenham a miss and wont be far away. (4/1)
1st - Activial
2nd - Calipto
3rd - Commissioned
2:30 Aintree - First Lieutenant
Only two of the six in this years Betfred Bowl didn't run at Cheltenham, the most notable one of the pair being First Lieutenant with Argocat also sidestepping the Festival. Dynaste looks set to go off favourite here after winning the Ryanair impressively and was also victorious at Aintree last season, albeit in a much weaker contest. Another one that comes here after running at Cheltenham is Silviniaco Conti who didn't stay at Cheltenham and to me it is a surprise they bought him here, but one of interest is last year's winner. First Lieutenant was a bit disappointing in the early part of the season but came back to life with a good second behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He was a withdrawal on the morning of the Gold Cup because he 'did not eat up' but has been in good form back at home according to trainer Mouse Morris. The ground is on his side and he clearly likes Aintree so a chance is taken for First Lieutenant to put his freshness to good use with Menorah to chase him home. (3/1)
1st - First Lieutenant
2nd - Menorah
3:05 Aintree - Rock On Ruby
You would be a good mixture of brave and stupid to say that anything not named 'The New One' is fighting for minor honours here. In the search to find the runner up I have adventurously come up with ex Champion Hurdle winner, Rock On Ruby who reverts back to hurdles today. He is the first entry into today's blog who ran at Cheltenham, but gave nowhere near his true running after making a shuddering early mistake in the Arkle. Ten lengths separate him and The New One from their battle early on this season, however that was the first run of the season and Rock On Ruby clearly needed it, although he shouldn't be overturning the form today. The New One to take all the beating, but Rock On Ruby can chase him home. (11/1)
1st - The New One
2nd - Rock On Ruby
3:40 Aintree - Warne
Warne won last time despite carrying the 2 stone penalty of the 'Adam Webb Nap' and was impressive in doing so when making all at Fairyhouse. The horses behind him that day were no slouches either as he gave a length and a quarter beating to Seabass with Cheltenham Foxhunters winner, Tammys Hill back in third. He won that exact race before a good fourth here last year showing that he handles the fences but there is room for improvement in that area. There were a few sticky jumps early on in the race but he warmed to the task as the race progressed and the addition of Sam Waley-Cohen is a positive today. (9/2)
1st - Warne
2nd - Mossey Joe
3rd - Richard's Sundance
4:15 Aintree - Arnaud
Arnaud came to the fore as a top Novice Chaser when caught late on by Valdez at Doncaster who went on to finish a good fifth in the Arkle. His life is made a bit easier here with Ger Fox taking off a valuable 7 pounds and also with the defection of Next Sensation who would have been the pace angle. There aren't many others that would want to be leading this afternoon so it could just be that Arnaud gets to jump them silly from the front in a soft lead. Claret Cloak appreciated a change of tactics last time in the Grand Annual but made a shuddering error at the 2nd last and will be one stalking late on. However Arnaud comes here a fresh horse and will love the spring ground and can make it a double for Michael O'Leary. (8/1)
1st - Arnaud
2nd - Claret Cloak
3rd - Parsnip Pete
4th - Sound Investment
4:50 Aintree - Fox Appeal
This is a bit of a disappointing turn out for me despite the field including an Arkle winner and a fourth as well as a JLT runner up. All five of these had high hopes at the start of the year but have each left a blotch on their resume throughout the course of the season. Oscar Whisky fell at the first in the JLT when the stable who won this last year had high hopes, whereas Dodging Bullets came up short in the Arkle but the step up in trip could suit. Western Warhorse has let his temperament get the better of him on a couple of occasions but is unbeaten over fences and is another who steps up in trip today. That leaves Uxizandre who was laboured at Warwick in handicap but ran well in the JLT although the strength of that form could be questioned. So we are left with Fox Appeal who is a more than useful novice but isn't straightforward himself so is taken tentatively. He is the only one that comes here fresh after bypassing Cheltenham but on a formline with Wonderful Charm is well amongst these five. Undoubtedly his best performance came when handing out a 10 length victory to the ill fated Raya Star and last time out pushed Balder Succes to a length. Fox Appeal to take all the beating today at a nice price as well. (10/1)
1st - Fox Appeal
2nd - Western Warhorse
5:25 Aintree - Busty Brown
Not for the first time in his career Noel Meade has an unexposed horse in Busty Brown who made a good return from injury last time out behind Sailors Warn. That was over a much shorter trip than today and he covered himself with credit in a good field including Thousand Stars. Before his injury he was mixing it with the likes of Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack in Novice Hurdle company and was far from being outclassed. He has only had one previous try over three miles however, which is the race I'd like to focus on as he was third in a Grade Three. Our Vinnie was the winner that day who was a top novice in his own right with Rule The World in second before Busty Brown completed the placings in third. Finishing third in a good Grade Three race like that is no bad thing but distances back to him were a head and a head which shows the class he has. With stamina assured and a mark of 140 looking very lenient, Busty Brown is taken to land the last race on the card today. (9/1)
1st - Busty Brown
2nd - Kaylif Aramis
3rd - Two Rockers
4th - Edgardo Sol
NAP - First Lieutenant
Nb - Arnaud
Good luck today and as always, Happy Punting!
We have as always prepared a video for you guys covering all of today's racing at Aintree as well as a few giggles. Joining the panel today is myself (@Lukeelder13), Adam Webb (@Adamwebb121) and Michael Andrews (@Mytentoryours). We hope you enjoy the video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCVAZd_h0UY
Now onto today's selections!
2:00 Aintree - Activial
Harry Fry decided to swerve Cheltenham with Activial and has been aimed at Aintree as a result, after seeing the backside of Calipto earlier this season. Nothing went right for the latter at Cheltenham after Daryl Jacob's stirrup broke off approaching two out when still travelling very strongly, but he will have to reproduce that run again. The selection has to find three and a quarter lengths with Calipto from the Newbury race in November but the better ground should see that margin significantly shortened. One of the main positives about Activial is that he comes here fresh as many in the field will have left their race behind at Cheltenham. We last saw Activial when victorious in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, handing out a three and a half length beating to the re-opposing Commissioned, who also gave Cheltenham a miss and wont be far away. (4/1)
1st - Activial
2nd - Calipto
3rd - Commissioned
2:30 Aintree - First Lieutenant
Only two of the six in this years Betfred Bowl didn't run at Cheltenham, the most notable one of the pair being First Lieutenant with Argocat also sidestepping the Festival. Dynaste looks set to go off favourite here after winning the Ryanair impressively and was also victorious at Aintree last season, albeit in a much weaker contest. Another one that comes here after running at Cheltenham is Silviniaco Conti who didn't stay at Cheltenham and to me it is a surprise they bought him here, but one of interest is last year's winner. First Lieutenant was a bit disappointing in the early part of the season but came back to life with a good second behind Bobs Worth in the Lexus. He was a withdrawal on the morning of the Gold Cup because he 'did not eat up' but has been in good form back at home according to trainer Mouse Morris. The ground is on his side and he clearly likes Aintree so a chance is taken for First Lieutenant to put his freshness to good use with Menorah to chase him home. (3/1)
1st - First Lieutenant
2nd - Menorah
3:05 Aintree - Rock On Ruby
You would be a good mixture of brave and stupid to say that anything not named 'The New One' is fighting for minor honours here. In the search to find the runner up I have adventurously come up with ex Champion Hurdle winner, Rock On Ruby who reverts back to hurdles today. He is the first entry into today's blog who ran at Cheltenham, but gave nowhere near his true running after making a shuddering early mistake in the Arkle. Ten lengths separate him and The New One from their battle early on this season, however that was the first run of the season and Rock On Ruby clearly needed it, although he shouldn't be overturning the form today. The New One to take all the beating, but Rock On Ruby can chase him home. (11/1)
1st - The New One
2nd - Rock On Ruby
3:40 Aintree - Warne
Warne won last time despite carrying the 2 stone penalty of the 'Adam Webb Nap' and was impressive in doing so when making all at Fairyhouse. The horses behind him that day were no slouches either as he gave a length and a quarter beating to Seabass with Cheltenham Foxhunters winner, Tammys Hill back in third. He won that exact race before a good fourth here last year showing that he handles the fences but there is room for improvement in that area. There were a few sticky jumps early on in the race but he warmed to the task as the race progressed and the addition of Sam Waley-Cohen is a positive today. (9/2)
1st - Warne
2nd - Mossey Joe
3rd - Richard's Sundance
4:15 Aintree - Arnaud
Arnaud came to the fore as a top Novice Chaser when caught late on by Valdez at Doncaster who went on to finish a good fifth in the Arkle. His life is made a bit easier here with Ger Fox taking off a valuable 7 pounds and also with the defection of Next Sensation who would have been the pace angle. There aren't many others that would want to be leading this afternoon so it could just be that Arnaud gets to jump them silly from the front in a soft lead. Claret Cloak appreciated a change of tactics last time in the Grand Annual but made a shuddering error at the 2nd last and will be one stalking late on. However Arnaud comes here a fresh horse and will love the spring ground and can make it a double for Michael O'Leary. (8/1)
1st - Arnaud
2nd - Claret Cloak
3rd - Parsnip Pete
4th - Sound Investment
4:50 Aintree - Fox Appeal
This is a bit of a disappointing turn out for me despite the field including an Arkle winner and a fourth as well as a JLT runner up. All five of these had high hopes at the start of the year but have each left a blotch on their resume throughout the course of the season. Oscar Whisky fell at the first in the JLT when the stable who won this last year had high hopes, whereas Dodging Bullets came up short in the Arkle but the step up in trip could suit. Western Warhorse has let his temperament get the better of him on a couple of occasions but is unbeaten over fences and is another who steps up in trip today. That leaves Uxizandre who was laboured at Warwick in handicap but ran well in the JLT although the strength of that form could be questioned. So we are left with Fox Appeal who is a more than useful novice but isn't straightforward himself so is taken tentatively. He is the only one that comes here fresh after bypassing Cheltenham but on a formline with Wonderful Charm is well amongst these five. Undoubtedly his best performance came when handing out a 10 length victory to the ill fated Raya Star and last time out pushed Balder Succes to a length. Fox Appeal to take all the beating today at a nice price as well. (10/1)
1st - Fox Appeal
2nd - Western Warhorse
5:25 Aintree - Busty Brown
Not for the first time in his career Noel Meade has an unexposed horse in Busty Brown who made a good return from injury last time out behind Sailors Warn. That was over a much shorter trip than today and he covered himself with credit in a good field including Thousand Stars. Before his injury he was mixing it with the likes of Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack in Novice Hurdle company and was far from being outclassed. He has only had one previous try over three miles however, which is the race I'd like to focus on as he was third in a Grade Three. Our Vinnie was the winner that day who was a top novice in his own right with Rule The World in second before Busty Brown completed the placings in third. Finishing third in a good Grade Three race like that is no bad thing but distances back to him were a head and a head which shows the class he has. With stamina assured and a mark of 140 looking very lenient, Busty Brown is taken to land the last race on the card today. (9/1)
1st - Busty Brown
2nd - Kaylif Aramis
3rd - Two Rockers
4th - Edgardo Sol
NAP - First Lieutenant
Nb - Arnaud
Good luck today and as always, Happy Punting!
Friday, 28 March 2014
Call For The Meydan Cavalry
Good Morning/Evening everyone, I hope you are all ready to the return of the flat season today as we start off with the Brocklesby and the day's feature race in England, the Lincoln. The two races mentioned are of course at Doncaster but we also race on the level at Kempton as well as over jumps at Stratford and Uttoxeter. There is only one other meeting in the UK today as Navan stage a good National Hunt card over in Ireland including Baily Green who fell at Cheltenham. However the main meeting is of course at Meydan in Dubai as they stage the yearly World Cup night card including Ruler Of The World who is favourite for the big race.
Last week we found two winners out of two bets but I will say no more about Ladies Are Forever who can go down as an unlucky loser. Roalco De Farges and Ertijaal were the two winners to provide us with a nice double but we will be hoping for a few more winners today!
As always we have a weekly video prepared for you as well as two more preview's of the Flat season as a whole and once again of the Meydan card tonight. Joining the panel for the weekly video and Flat season preview are the usual suspects of myself, @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours. We were privileged to be joined by Andrew Rideout (@thoroughbredAR) once more for the Meydan video, hope you enjoy them!
Flat Season Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3bmkYaQdco
Meydan World Cup Night Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXoJ8y_z7HI
Weekly Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DPWetxR-5c
Link to be added later
Now onto today's selections!
1:45 Meydan - Cavalryman
Our first visit to Meydan today with Cavalryman who looks to make it back to back wins in the Dubai Gold Cup after winning the race last year. He was also victorious here last time out over two furlongs shorter when impressive over a mile and six furlongs, beating Star Empire by five and a half lengths. One argument against him is that he isn't a true stayer although he has won twice over two miles and twice over a mile and six furlongs. Staying power isn't a huge doubt for me and he is clearly more than good enough, so it is Cavalryman who is taken to land the race for the second time in as many years. (5/2)
2:25 Meydan - Giovanni Boldini
We look to notch up a quick double at Meydan with the exciting Giovanni Boldini who was last seen when runner up to Outstrip at the Breeders Cup. There was more than meets the eye that day as he tried to keep in touch with Bobby's Kitten, who went off way too fast and set the fastest sectionals in the history of the race. Both of them suffered from that electric pace and Outstrip was there to pick up the pieces late on but Giovanni Boldini wasn't far away. Before that effort he had won a Dundalk race easily after finishing a good third to Toormore in the National Stakes at The Curragh, which is no bad thing as he is second favourite for the Guineas this year. Giovanni Boldini to make it a hat trick in the race for trainer Aidan O'Brien after victories with Daddy Long Legs and Lines Of Battle. (3/1)
2:40 Doncaster - Tropics
Tropics is widely regarded as a horse to follow and he renews his rivalry with the classy Jack Dexter here today as they both return from winter breaks. As many of you will know I am a big fan of Jack Dexter but there is no doubting that he is better with cut in the ground, for that reason Tropics is preferred today. Last season Tropics improved from a rating of 84 all the way up to his current mark of 116 and he could still be better than that. His most impressive effort last season came in his most recent run in the Benbough Stakes at Ascot when beating Music Master easily by three and a half lengths. The main worry for me as with many horses today is that he must prove he is racefit as he was 7th on his seasonal reappearance last year. We side with Tropics to get his season off to a winning start. (10/3)
3:50 Doncaster - Jack's Revenge
George Baker's Gelding just about gets in the Lincoln this year with only four below him in the weights, but a mark of 95 looks more than workable. You have to back Jack's Revenge with a good temperament as he isn't the easiest horse to win with, on more than one occasion last year he looked the winner before getting other ideas. If he is to win a race this season then this could well be it as he gets his ground and ran nicely off a two pound lower mark at York when finding only Graphic too good. One of the big worries however is that he hasn't got his head in front since July of 2012 but has ran with promise on many occasions. Fergus Sweeney will have his hands full today but Jack's Revenge could finally get his head in front once again. (14/1)
4:35 Navan - Baily Green
As many of you know I thought that it was a simply moronic idea to run Baily Green in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham as it showed when he was taken off his feet. As a result of the fast pace his jumping suffered resulting in him falling at the top of the hill but in truth he always looked uncomfortable. The step up to two and a half miles should be right up his street after a good show in the Kinloch Brae at Thurles in January. He probably should have won that day but for making a mistake at the last before rallying on the run in behind Texas Jack. His only other attempt over this distance this season was when he chased home Sizing Europe at Gowran Park, going down by only a length and three quarters. With Bog Warrior likely to set a good pace we take Baily Green to pick up the spoils and prove his worth over the distance. (10/11) Note that after writing this the prices were released and Baily Green is a shade of odds on, after doing the work I wont delete the entry but I will take the stick if he loses... Gulp!
NAP - Cavalryman
Nb - Giovanni Boldini
Good luck if you have a bet today and as always, happy punting!
Last week we found two winners out of two bets but I will say no more about Ladies Are Forever who can go down as an unlucky loser. Roalco De Farges and Ertijaal were the two winners to provide us with a nice double but we will be hoping for a few more winners today!
As always we have a weekly video prepared for you as well as two more preview's of the Flat season as a whole and once again of the Meydan card tonight. Joining the panel for the weekly video and Flat season preview are the usual suspects of myself, @Adamwebb121, @Calummadell and @Mytentoryours. We were privileged to be joined by Andrew Rideout (@thoroughbredAR) once more for the Meydan video, hope you enjoy them!
Flat Season Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3bmkYaQdco
Meydan World Cup Night Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXoJ8y_z7HI
Weekly Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DPWetxR-5c
Link to be added later
Now onto today's selections!
1:45 Meydan - Cavalryman
Our first visit to Meydan today with Cavalryman who looks to make it back to back wins in the Dubai Gold Cup after winning the race last year. He was also victorious here last time out over two furlongs shorter when impressive over a mile and six furlongs, beating Star Empire by five and a half lengths. One argument against him is that he isn't a true stayer although he has won twice over two miles and twice over a mile and six furlongs. Staying power isn't a huge doubt for me and he is clearly more than good enough, so it is Cavalryman who is taken to land the race for the second time in as many years. (5/2)
2:25 Meydan - Giovanni Boldini
We look to notch up a quick double at Meydan with the exciting Giovanni Boldini who was last seen when runner up to Outstrip at the Breeders Cup. There was more than meets the eye that day as he tried to keep in touch with Bobby's Kitten, who went off way too fast and set the fastest sectionals in the history of the race. Both of them suffered from that electric pace and Outstrip was there to pick up the pieces late on but Giovanni Boldini wasn't far away. Before that effort he had won a Dundalk race easily after finishing a good third to Toormore in the National Stakes at The Curragh, which is no bad thing as he is second favourite for the Guineas this year. Giovanni Boldini to make it a hat trick in the race for trainer Aidan O'Brien after victories with Daddy Long Legs and Lines Of Battle. (3/1)
2:40 Doncaster - Tropics
Tropics is widely regarded as a horse to follow and he renews his rivalry with the classy Jack Dexter here today as they both return from winter breaks. As many of you will know I am a big fan of Jack Dexter but there is no doubting that he is better with cut in the ground, for that reason Tropics is preferred today. Last season Tropics improved from a rating of 84 all the way up to his current mark of 116 and he could still be better than that. His most impressive effort last season came in his most recent run in the Benbough Stakes at Ascot when beating Music Master easily by three and a half lengths. The main worry for me as with many horses today is that he must prove he is racefit as he was 7th on his seasonal reappearance last year. We side with Tropics to get his season off to a winning start. (10/3)
3:50 Doncaster - Jack's Revenge
George Baker's Gelding just about gets in the Lincoln this year with only four below him in the weights, but a mark of 95 looks more than workable. You have to back Jack's Revenge with a good temperament as he isn't the easiest horse to win with, on more than one occasion last year he looked the winner before getting other ideas. If he is to win a race this season then this could well be it as he gets his ground and ran nicely off a two pound lower mark at York when finding only Graphic too good. One of the big worries however is that he hasn't got his head in front since July of 2012 but has ran with promise on many occasions. Fergus Sweeney will have his hands full today but Jack's Revenge could finally get his head in front once again. (14/1)
4:35 Navan - Baily Green
As many of you know I thought that it was a simply moronic idea to run Baily Green in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham as it showed when he was taken off his feet. As a result of the fast pace his jumping suffered resulting in him falling at the top of the hill but in truth he always looked uncomfortable. The step up to two and a half miles should be right up his street after a good show in the Kinloch Brae at Thurles in January. He probably should have won that day but for making a mistake at the last before rallying on the run in behind Texas Jack. His only other attempt over this distance this season was when he chased home Sizing Europe at Gowran Park, going down by only a length and three quarters. With Bog Warrior likely to set a good pace we take Baily Green to pick up the spoils and prove his worth over the distance. (10/11) Note that after writing this the prices were released and Baily Green is a shade of odds on, after doing the work I wont delete the entry but I will take the stick if he loses... Gulp!
NAP - Cavalryman
Nb - Giovanni Boldini
Good luck if you have a bet today and as always, happy punting!
Friday, 21 March 2014
Ivy To Close The Gate On His Rivals
Good Morning/Evening to you all and welcome to the first blog in a weird time of the year just after Cheltenham and before Aintree, something I call no man's land. I hope you all had a fantastic Festival week and even better if you found a few winners throughout the course of the four days.
We race today at Newbury, Bangor and Stratford over jumps in England with Kelso staging a decent National Hunt card across the border in Scotland. The only other meeting over jumps is in Ireland as Gowran Park stage a seven race card where the star attraction is Vicky De L'Oasis. Lingfield stage the best card in the country on the all weather however as they stage the Winter Derby in which Grandeur is a warm order and should take all the beating.
Ontheotherhoof is back after a short time off for Cheltenham week but we hope you enjoyed our preview videos leading up to the Festival. Today we preview the Channel 4 races today and any other races that get requested, joining me today is @Calummadell and @Adamwebb121, enjoy the show!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqw7jit4F_Y
Now onto today's selections!
2:40 Lingfield - Ladies Are Forever
We start today off at Lingfield with last year's winner Ladies Are Forever who looks to emulate Arganil who won this race back to back in 2009 and 2010. There are a few main contenders in the race that will be having their first runs of the season, including Stepper Point and Kingsgate Choice so there is a chance they will be found a little short here. Ladies Are Forever was last seen in the Cleves Stakes here at Lingfield around a month ago when being inconvenienced by a very wide draw. Today she is drawn in stall number four which is ideal for her running style and the drop down to five furlongs should be in her favour with Cheek Pieces tried once more. Ladies Are Forever to make it back to back wins in the Hever Stakes with Robert Tart booked in the saddle. (7/2)
3:15 Lingfield - Ertijaal
Ertijaal is a bit unlucky and if he took any other passage as a two year old he would be unbeaten as in his maiden he bumped into Toormore who beat him by a neck. Unlike Ladies Are Forever, the draw has done him no favours whatsoever, but he broke well last time out and over seven furlongs it isn't the worst thing that could happen. Ertijaal is around a 20/1 shot for the 2000 Guineas later this year, and if he is to justify that price tag then he should at least be going close here and is taken to land the spoils today. (6/4)
3:30 Newbury - Roalco De Farges
Roalco De Farges has come back from an injury this season and with two runs back he should be race-fit after finishing runner up to Tidal Bay in the Bet365 Gold Cup two seasons ago. On that form he will have stamina in abundance today over this slightly shorter trip although he steps up in trip from last time when third at Ludlow. His jumping was fantastic that day but Richard Johnson seemed hesitant to go for everything until very late on and probably left it too late. The main positive with Roalco De Farges is that he gets Good ground back again with his only course victory coming on a faster surface. Richard Johnson was among the winners yesterday at Newbury and can have another one here after a good week at Cheltenham. (13/2)
4:30 Bangor - Ivy Gate
We have a long wait for today's NAP but hopefully its worth it as Ivy Gate ventures into handicap company for the first time with Maurice Linehan taking a further five pounds off. Ivy Gate could be well ahead of the handicapper as he has been judged for performances on bottomless ground which is less than ideal for him. The ground for today is Good to Soft which will be perfect for his chances and after being declared a non runner a few times he can gain his first hurdles victory. To be fair to him his hurdles efforts to date haven't been bad by any stretch of the imagination and has still beaten some nice horses, but the ground has been against him for a long time. Ivy Gate to land today's NAP and what should be a double on the card for Maurice Linehan. (11/2)
Trixie - Ladies Are Forever, Ertijaal and Ivy Gate
NAP - Ivy Gate
Nb - Ladies Are Forever
Have a good weekend everyone and as always, Happy Punting!
We race today at Newbury, Bangor and Stratford over jumps in England with Kelso staging a decent National Hunt card across the border in Scotland. The only other meeting over jumps is in Ireland as Gowran Park stage a seven race card where the star attraction is Vicky De L'Oasis. Lingfield stage the best card in the country on the all weather however as they stage the Winter Derby in which Grandeur is a warm order and should take all the beating.
Ontheotherhoof is back after a short time off for Cheltenham week but we hope you enjoyed our preview videos leading up to the Festival. Today we preview the Channel 4 races today and any other races that get requested, joining me today is @Calummadell and @Adamwebb121, enjoy the show!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqw7jit4F_Y
Now onto today's selections!
2:40 Lingfield - Ladies Are Forever
We start today off at Lingfield with last year's winner Ladies Are Forever who looks to emulate Arganil who won this race back to back in 2009 and 2010. There are a few main contenders in the race that will be having their first runs of the season, including Stepper Point and Kingsgate Choice so there is a chance they will be found a little short here. Ladies Are Forever was last seen in the Cleves Stakes here at Lingfield around a month ago when being inconvenienced by a very wide draw. Today she is drawn in stall number four which is ideal for her running style and the drop down to five furlongs should be in her favour with Cheek Pieces tried once more. Ladies Are Forever to make it back to back wins in the Hever Stakes with Robert Tart booked in the saddle. (7/2)
3:15 Lingfield - Ertijaal
Ertijaal is a bit unlucky and if he took any other passage as a two year old he would be unbeaten as in his maiden he bumped into Toormore who beat him by a neck. Unlike Ladies Are Forever, the draw has done him no favours whatsoever, but he broke well last time out and over seven furlongs it isn't the worst thing that could happen. Ertijaal is around a 20/1 shot for the 2000 Guineas later this year, and if he is to justify that price tag then he should at least be going close here and is taken to land the spoils today. (6/4)
3:30 Newbury - Roalco De Farges
Roalco De Farges has come back from an injury this season and with two runs back he should be race-fit after finishing runner up to Tidal Bay in the Bet365 Gold Cup two seasons ago. On that form he will have stamina in abundance today over this slightly shorter trip although he steps up in trip from last time when third at Ludlow. His jumping was fantastic that day but Richard Johnson seemed hesitant to go for everything until very late on and probably left it too late. The main positive with Roalco De Farges is that he gets Good ground back again with his only course victory coming on a faster surface. Richard Johnson was among the winners yesterday at Newbury and can have another one here after a good week at Cheltenham. (13/2)
4:30 Bangor - Ivy Gate
We have a long wait for today's NAP but hopefully its worth it as Ivy Gate ventures into handicap company for the first time with Maurice Linehan taking a further five pounds off. Ivy Gate could be well ahead of the handicapper as he has been judged for performances on bottomless ground which is less than ideal for him. The ground for today is Good to Soft which will be perfect for his chances and after being declared a non runner a few times he can gain his first hurdles victory. To be fair to him his hurdles efforts to date haven't been bad by any stretch of the imagination and has still beaten some nice horses, but the ground has been against him for a long time. Ivy Gate to land today's NAP and what should be a double on the card for Maurice Linehan. (11/2)
Trixie - Ladies Are Forever, Ertijaal and Ivy Gate
NAP - Ivy Gate
Nb - Ladies Are Forever
Have a good weekend everyone and as always, Happy Punting!
Tuesday, 18 March 2014
Cheltenham Forgiveness List
What is the Cheltenham forgiveness list you ask? Simple! A horse will make it onto the forgiveness list for not performing to his or her full potential at Cheltenham and is one that can be followed in the next few runs. Just picture your money lost at Cheltenham like an ex girlfriend that you are trying to get back, you may want it on occasions but it doesn't matter in the long run. Now before we get too distracted and start a support group for lonely males, lets crack on with horse number one on the forgiveness list.
The New One
More of an obvious one to start the list off with The New One who was desperately unlucky in the Champion Hurdle, when hampered by the tragic and fatal fall of Our Conor. In that incident he lost five to six lengths and when that happens in any Championship race at Cheltenham, it's hard to come back from.
The argument against him is that he was outpaced coming down the hill towards three out and then stayed on up the hill. A different and my personal view is that he exerted a lot of energy getting back into the race and his jumping suffered as a result of the incident at the third flight. Sam Twiston-Davies wasn't asking his mount for a great deal of effort coming down the hill and it could just be that he was filling his lungs before flying home up the hill.
The New One is the first entry on the forgiveness list and should go close in the Aintree Hurdle whereas another crack at the Champion Hurdle isn't off the cards.
Alaivan
Jonjo O'Neill saddled Alaivan in the County Hurdle who ran well for a long way before being outpaced turning for home and not for the first time in the race. As usual the pace was a rapid one which looked to catch him out in the jumping department as he was far from fluent at a few hurdles in first time Cheek Pieces.
By the time they were preparing to turn back towards the stands you got the feeling and Maurice Linehan was far from happy with him and started pushing along his mount. He was still prominent approaching two from home but was hard off the bridle just after, and found himself struggling to go with the likes of Lac Fontana and Montbazon who both placed. Even approaching the last he was no more than five lengths off the lead but a poor jump cost him further lengths and he kept on at the same pace.
A trip to Aintree may not be completely off the cards but he will definitely appreciate a step up to two and a half miles after staying on in taking style in the Betfair hurdle previously.
Violet Dancer
Gary and Jamie Moore were all over the front pages after Sire De Grugy was victorious in the Champion Chase on Wednesday, and later that day had a good chance in the Fred Winter. Violet Dancer was responsible for that chance and with all things considered he ran a promising race in a competitive handicap. This year's Fred Winter was particularly messy with mistakes and a few incidents, none of them managed to avoid Violet Dancer's passage, all of this wasn't helped by him being fiercely keen early on in the race.
The first time he was hampered came at the second hurdle when Astre De La Cour came down hindering the whole field, but especially Violet Dancer who was forced very wide after bumping. Approaching three from home when the race was heating up, he found himself short of room and had to get tight to one at a bad time of the contest, but it was two from home that put the nail in the coffin.
The fall of Clarcam forced more people out wide and with Raven's Tower coming across him it cost him a lot of momentum and his chance. Violet Dancer is definitely one to watch next season and will definitely make a chaser.
Sgt Reckless
Sgt Reckless was an eye catcher for many in the Supreme after coming from an impossible position to finish fourth behind the mightily impressive Vautour.
He was widely fancied last year in the Champion Bumper before being outstayed up the Cheltenham hill but it was the opposite case this year. He has gone a bit under the radar this season but has taken the notable scalp of West Wizard at Kempton before a good third on bad ground at Kempton once again. His run in the Supreme was an interesting one as he was way out the back for the whole race and no less than 25 lengths down jumping two out. You could go about that run in two ways, either say he needs further and draw the line at saying he was outpaced or say he isn't a Cheltenham horse. It could be a little bit of both but I would argue more the latter as he hasn't looked the most straightforward ride on either visit to the course.
Sgt Reckless put in a massive effort to grab fourth at the line and will surely be suited more by the demands of Aintree, and is one horse who could just need a flat track and good ground.
Baily Green
The last two horses on the forgiveness list probably ran in the wrong race which is easy to say in hindsight, but that doesn't apply to Baily Green who ran in the Champion Chase.
This season Baily Green had run four times back in Ireland before Cheltenham came around when shaping well without success. When stepped up to two and a half miles back home he pushed Sizing Europe to a length and a quarter before being second to Texas Jack in a race he arguably should have won. He has only ran over a shorter distance once this season when tackling fences and that outing resulted in a thirty and a quarter lengths pounding from Benefficient. But with the defection of Sprinter Sacre, connections decided to tackle the bigger race which you cant blame them for however you cant campaign a horse for one race and then change plans late on. The Champion Chase resulted in Baily Green being taken off his feet throughout and his jumping suffered, eventually falling four out.
For the future Baily Green definitely looks a stayer in the making and for now two and a half miles should suit but it would be no surprise were he to stay three miles, But onto our last entry on the list.
Wonderful Charm
The final entry comes courtesy of former Champion Trainer, Paul Nicholls who saddled the promising Wonderful Charm in the JLT Novices Chase.
You cant blame connections for getting this race wrong as he has been campaigned over two and a half miles on every chase start so far and holding his own in top races. Before last week the only horse who had beat him over fences was Oscar Whisky and even that was a race he arguably should have won. There isn't much else left to say about him other than he was probably travelling a bit too fast for his jumping to be fluent and as a result that suffered. The only thing that hindered him that was out of his control was when Djakadam came down four out, but in truth he wasn't hampered too badly but it checked his momentum slightly at a bad time. He ended off the race by flying up the hill and almost catching Felix Yonger for fourth who may not have stayed the trip.
The future will surely be over further for Wonderful Charm and it would seem that a win isn't too far away for him as he does look a natural over fences.
So that rounds off the forgiveness list, if I have missed any horses that you like then let me know, the same applies if you disagree with any of the entrants to the list. Follow me on twitter @lukeelder13 and join the debate!
The New One
More of an obvious one to start the list off with The New One who was desperately unlucky in the Champion Hurdle, when hampered by the tragic and fatal fall of Our Conor. In that incident he lost five to six lengths and when that happens in any Championship race at Cheltenham, it's hard to come back from.
The argument against him is that he was outpaced coming down the hill towards three out and then stayed on up the hill. A different and my personal view is that he exerted a lot of energy getting back into the race and his jumping suffered as a result of the incident at the third flight. Sam Twiston-Davies wasn't asking his mount for a great deal of effort coming down the hill and it could just be that he was filling his lungs before flying home up the hill.
The New One is the first entry on the forgiveness list and should go close in the Aintree Hurdle whereas another crack at the Champion Hurdle isn't off the cards.
Alaivan
Jonjo O'Neill saddled Alaivan in the County Hurdle who ran well for a long way before being outpaced turning for home and not for the first time in the race. As usual the pace was a rapid one which looked to catch him out in the jumping department as he was far from fluent at a few hurdles in first time Cheek Pieces.
By the time they were preparing to turn back towards the stands you got the feeling and Maurice Linehan was far from happy with him and started pushing along his mount. He was still prominent approaching two from home but was hard off the bridle just after, and found himself struggling to go with the likes of Lac Fontana and Montbazon who both placed. Even approaching the last he was no more than five lengths off the lead but a poor jump cost him further lengths and he kept on at the same pace.
A trip to Aintree may not be completely off the cards but he will definitely appreciate a step up to two and a half miles after staying on in taking style in the Betfair hurdle previously.
Violet Dancer
Gary and Jamie Moore were all over the front pages after Sire De Grugy was victorious in the Champion Chase on Wednesday, and later that day had a good chance in the Fred Winter. Violet Dancer was responsible for that chance and with all things considered he ran a promising race in a competitive handicap. This year's Fred Winter was particularly messy with mistakes and a few incidents, none of them managed to avoid Violet Dancer's passage, all of this wasn't helped by him being fiercely keen early on in the race.
The first time he was hampered came at the second hurdle when Astre De La Cour came down hindering the whole field, but especially Violet Dancer who was forced very wide after bumping. Approaching three from home when the race was heating up, he found himself short of room and had to get tight to one at a bad time of the contest, but it was two from home that put the nail in the coffin.
The fall of Clarcam forced more people out wide and with Raven's Tower coming across him it cost him a lot of momentum and his chance. Violet Dancer is definitely one to watch next season and will definitely make a chaser.
Sgt Reckless
Sgt Reckless was an eye catcher for many in the Supreme after coming from an impossible position to finish fourth behind the mightily impressive Vautour.
He was widely fancied last year in the Champion Bumper before being outstayed up the Cheltenham hill but it was the opposite case this year. He has gone a bit under the radar this season but has taken the notable scalp of West Wizard at Kempton before a good third on bad ground at Kempton once again. His run in the Supreme was an interesting one as he was way out the back for the whole race and no less than 25 lengths down jumping two out. You could go about that run in two ways, either say he needs further and draw the line at saying he was outpaced or say he isn't a Cheltenham horse. It could be a little bit of both but I would argue more the latter as he hasn't looked the most straightforward ride on either visit to the course.
Sgt Reckless put in a massive effort to grab fourth at the line and will surely be suited more by the demands of Aintree, and is one horse who could just need a flat track and good ground.
Baily Green
The last two horses on the forgiveness list probably ran in the wrong race which is easy to say in hindsight, but that doesn't apply to Baily Green who ran in the Champion Chase.
This season Baily Green had run four times back in Ireland before Cheltenham came around when shaping well without success. When stepped up to two and a half miles back home he pushed Sizing Europe to a length and a quarter before being second to Texas Jack in a race he arguably should have won. He has only ran over a shorter distance once this season when tackling fences and that outing resulted in a thirty and a quarter lengths pounding from Benefficient. But with the defection of Sprinter Sacre, connections decided to tackle the bigger race which you cant blame them for however you cant campaign a horse for one race and then change plans late on. The Champion Chase resulted in Baily Green being taken off his feet throughout and his jumping suffered, eventually falling four out.
For the future Baily Green definitely looks a stayer in the making and for now two and a half miles should suit but it would be no surprise were he to stay three miles, But onto our last entry on the list.
Wonderful Charm
The final entry comes courtesy of former Champion Trainer, Paul Nicholls who saddled the promising Wonderful Charm in the JLT Novices Chase.
You cant blame connections for getting this race wrong as he has been campaigned over two and a half miles on every chase start so far and holding his own in top races. Before last week the only horse who had beat him over fences was Oscar Whisky and even that was a race he arguably should have won. There isn't much else left to say about him other than he was probably travelling a bit too fast for his jumping to be fluent and as a result that suffered. The only thing that hindered him that was out of his control was when Djakadam came down four out, but in truth he wasn't hampered too badly but it checked his momentum slightly at a bad time. He ended off the race by flying up the hill and almost catching Felix Yonger for fourth who may not have stayed the trip.
The future will surely be over further for Wonderful Charm and it would seem that a win isn't too far away for him as he does look a natural over fences.
So that rounds off the forgiveness list, if I have missed any horses that you like then let me know, the same applies if you disagree with any of the entrants to the list. Follow me on twitter @lukeelder13 and join the debate!
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